Post by futurist on Aug 16, 2016 4:02:21 GMT
Here is the background to this scenario:
-1885: Prince Wilhelm (later Kaiser Wilhelm II) finds several books about France and French history in the Prussian royal palace. As a result of reading these books, Wilhelm becomes something of a Francophile and becomes upset and Franco-German relations are currently so poor.
-1888: Wilhelm becomes the German Kaiser after the death of both his grandfather and his father. Shortly afterwards, he convinces German Chancellor Otto von Bismarck about the need to improve Germany's relations with France. Wilhelm argues that a hostile France is a long-term danger to Germany and that it's thus better to try finding and creating some sort of rapprochement with France than to continue Franco-German hostility indefinitely. In turn, Bismarck quickly begins a push to convince lower-level German officials and Cabinet members to support his and Kaiser Wilhelm II's position in regards to improving Germany's relations with France.
-1889: Kaiser Wilhelm II sends some German envoys and diplomats to France in order to tell France that Germany wants to improve Franco-German relations. In response, France demands the unconditional return of *all* of Alsace-Lorraine before such an improvement can occur. Wilhelm and Bismarck refuse this French demand but announce that they are willing to seek a compromise with France in regards to this. Thus, *extremely* intense Franco-German negotiations in regards to this begin shortly afterwards.
-1890: Bismarck convinces Kaiser Wilhelm II to renew the Reinsurance Treaty with Russia for an additional ten years. Meanwhile, Wilhelm convinces Bismarck to compromise in Parliament in regards to anti-socialist legislation--at least temporarily (as in, for the time being). Thus, Wilhelm avoids firing Bismarck for the time being.
-1891: A breakthrough occurs in Franco-German negotiations. France and Germany reach a compromise where Alsace-Lorraine will be granted extensive autonomy within Germany for 25 years, after which point a(n internationally monitored) sovereignty referendum (plebiscite) will occur in Alsace-Lorraine to determine Alsace-Lorraine's final status. After this sovereignty referendum is conducted, *all* of Alsace-Lorraine will become *permanently* demilitarized *regardless* of the outcome of this sovereignty referendum (which in turn placates the south German states who are worried about their security in the event that some or all of Alsace-Lorraine will be returned to France in 25 years).
-1892: After *a lot* of *extremely heavy* arm-twisting, Bismarck is able to get the German Reichstag to approve the deal that Germany and France reached in regards to Alsace-Lorraine. As a result of this deal, German Kaiser Wilhelm II becomes *extremely* popular in both Alsace-Lorraine and France. During his visit to both Alsace-Lorraine and France later that same year, Wilhelm is overjoyed at how much cheers and applause he receives in both Alsace-Lorraine and France. (For the record, the sovereignty plebiscite in Alsace-Lorraine will be held in 1917 while Alsace-Lorraine receives extreme autonomy within Germany starting from 1892.)
-1893: With the Alsace-Lorraine issue out of the way (at least for the time being), Bismarck resumes his push for aggressive anti-socialist legislation in the German Reichstag. In response to this, German Kaiser Wilhelm II fires Bismarck and concludes that Bismarck has already outlasted his value by now. In addition to this, seeing the popularity that the Alsace-Lorraine deal brought for him in both Alsace-Lorraine and France, German Kaiser Wilhelm II becomes a champion of and a spokesman (albeit at inconsistent one) for national self-determination. While this *isn't* initially a big deal, it certainly becomes a big deal over the years and decades.
-1894: In order to improve his own popularity among German nationalists after the Alsace-Lorraine deal with France, German Kaiser Wilhelm II makes a deal with Russia to encourage ethnic Germans from Russia to immigrate to Germany (and to settle in either Posen Province or the Polish Corridor in order to strengthen the ethnic German presence in both of these areas).
-1895: Seeing the new Russian Tsar Nicholas II's need for large-scale loans in order to help finance Russia's industrialization, Wilhelm offers to purchase the strategic Suwalki Gubernia from Russia for a relatively large amount of money (which, in turn, will help provide the loans for Russia's industrialization). After thinking it over for a little bit and realizing that Russia cannot get as much large-scale loans from France as it desires (after all, France certainly *doesn't* have as much incentive to help finance Russia's industrialization in this TL as it did in our TL), Nicholas reluctantly agrees to Wilhelm's offer (an offer which is subsequently ratified by the German Reichstag). The purchase of the strategic Suwalki Gubernia from Russia and the agreement with Russia to encourage ethnic Germans in Russia to immigrate to Germany certainly make German Kaiser Wilhelm II *extremely* popular among the German people--*including* among German nationalists.
-1897: German Kaiser Wilhelm II successfully pushes through a program of large-scale German naval construction, thus making him even more popular among German nationalists. However, Wilhelm also engages in careful diplomacy with Britain in order to try reaching an understanding with Britain in regards to this that will satisfy both German and British interests.
-1900: The Reinsurance Treaty between Germany and Russia is renewed for another five years.
-1904: Russia and Japan go to war.
-1905: Russia gets defeated in the Russo-Japanese War and loses Southern Sakhalin as well as its sphere of influence in Manchuria. Meanwhile, a revolution breaks out in Russia against Tsar Nicholas II's autocratic rule and in response to Russia's defeat by Japan. German Kaiser Wilhelm II, sensing Russia's weakness, offers to purchase Lithuania and Courland from Russia for a large amount of money. Nicholas, already humiliated by Japan and dealing with revolution at home, refuses Wilhelm's offer--thus infuriating Wilhelm. As a result of his anger against Russia, Wilhelm refuses to renew the Reinsurance Treaty with Russia one more time.
-1906: Still angry at Russia, Wilhelm begins aggressively promoting nationalism and nationalistic agitation within Russia. (Indeed, Wilhelm simply views this as an embodiment of his support for national self-determination.) In addition to this, Wilhelm begins aggressively criticizing Russia for its anti-Semitism and encourages Russian Jews to immigrate to Germany (while simultaneously *strongly* condemning anti-Semitism in Germany). Also, Wilhelm decides to extend his support of national self-determination to Germany's ally Austria-Hungary by criticizing Austria-Hungary for its inability to sufficiently deal with its "nationalities question" and by claiming that this is the reason for Austria-Hungary's relative backwardness. In response to this German agitation, Russia and Austria-Hungary begin moving closer together (after all, France still refuses to ally with Russia at this point in time) and begin trying to settle their differences in the Balkans.
-1908: Russia reluctantly allows Austria-Hungary to annex Bosnia and Herzegovina in exchange for having Austria-Hungary break off its alliance with Germany. Indeed, by this point in time, Austria-Hungary becomes convinced that German Kaiser Wilhelm II's support for national self-determination is a potential danger to the very unity and existence of Austria-Hungary. Plus, as a result of his arrogance, German Kaiser Wilhelm II frequently publicly boasts of Germany's military and industrial superiority over Austria-Hungary--thus further alienating Austria-Hungary from Germany.
-1909: Germany and Italy (whose leadership loves listening to German Kaiser Wilhelm II speak about national self-determination due to Italy's (informal) territorial claims against Austria-Hungary) strengthen their alliance (which becomes the known as the Dual Alliance due to Austria-Hungary's exit from the Triple Alliance the previous year) in order to better counter warming ties between Austria-Hungary and Russia.
-1912: Germany successfully reaches a final agreement with Britain in regards to German naval expansion. Afterwards, German-British relations--which were already relatively good due to Kaiser Wilhelm II's skillful diplomacy in regards to Britain--improve even further. Also, after the Social Democrats win a plurality in the German Reichstag that same year, German Kaiser Wilhelm II successfully establishes a type of modus vivendi with the Social Democrats; to elaborate on this, Wilhelm agrees to support most of the Social Democrats' domestic policy proposals in exchange for the Social Democrats refusing to strongly interfere in Wilhelm's conduct of foreign policy.
-1917: Emperor Franz Joseph of Austria-Hungary passes away. Afterwards, his successor Franz Ferdinand's (who *wasn't* assassinated in this TL) plans to introduce universal suffrage in Hungary cause the Hungarians to refuse to renew the Ausgleich in 1917. Thus, a civil war breaks out in Austria-Hungary. While Russia enthusiastically supports Franz Ferdinand, German Kaiser Wilhelm II is more reserved in his response to this civil war; while he supports Franz Ferdinand's plans to introduce universal suffrage in Hungary, Wilhelm also encourages Franz Ferdinand to support greater national self-determination for the various ethnic groups in Austria-Hungary (a statement which *strongly* angers Franz Ferdinand since he interprets it as German support for a break-up of Austria-Hungary). While Italy wants to exploit the civil war in Austria-Hungary to conquer some territory from Austria-Hungary, German Kaiser Wilhelm II successfully retrains Italy in regards to this and argues that right now *isn't* the time to resolve territorial disputes with Austria-Hungary. Thus, Franz Ferdinand is able to quickly crush this Hungarian rebellion and to successfully introduce universal suffrage in Hungary afterwards, thus significantly weakening the power of the Magyar (Hungarian) nobility. Also, Franz Ferdinand begins pushing aggressive economic reform in Austria-Hungary in order to try strengthening Austria-Hungary's economy and in order to try increasing the rate/pace of Austria-Hungary's industrialization.
-1918: As a result of the civil war in Austria-Hungary, France allowed Germany to postpone the sovereignty plebiscite in Alsace-Lorraine by one year. When this sovereignty plebiscite was finally held in 1918, most of Alsace-Lorraine voted to rejoin France while parts of Alsace-Lorraine, being thankful for the large autonomy that Germany granted them starting from the early 1890s, voted to remain a part of Germany (while keeping their large autonomy, of course). After this plebiscite was conducted, Germany and France quickly drew a mutually agreeable new border between the two of them in Alsace-Lorraine while *all* of Alsace-Lorraine became *permanently* demilitarized afterwards (as per the Franco-German agreement in regards to Alsace-Lorraine in the early 1890s).
-1919: Russian Tsarevich Alexis dies as a result of excessive bleeding which he sustained after an accidental fall (bleeding which *couldn't* stop due to his hemophilia). Due to the butterfly effect, in this TL, Russian Tsar Nicholas II has a second son, the non-hemophiliac Alexander. As a result of Alexis's death, Alexander becomes the new Russian Tsarevich. Also, as a result of Alexis's death, Rasputin is quickly expelled from the Russian royal household.
-1920: An attempt by the Social Democrats and German Kaiser Wilhelm II to introduce universal conscription in Germany results in a coup attempt by dissatisfied Prussian Junkers (who fear that universal conscription will reduce their influence in the German military). After this coup attempt fails, the leaders of this coup attempt are summarily tried and executed. Afterwards, Wilhelm and the Social Democrats successfully push through their plan to introduce universal conscription in Germany. In turn, this certainly strengthens and increases the (total) size of the German military (in comparison to the situation before).
-1921: Russian Tsar Nicholas II is assassinated by radical socialist revolutionaries. On his death bed, Nicholas declares that his younger brother Michael, rather than his wife Alexandra, will be the Regent for the Tsarevich Alexander until Alexander becomes of age. Meanwhile, the Tsarevich Alexander becomes known as Tsar Alexander IV (albeit under his under Michael's regency).
-1922: Frustrated at the relatively slow pace of Russia's industrialization (in comparison to countries such as Britain, Germany, and the U.S.), Regent Michael of Russia announces some large-scale economic reforms as well as an abolition of both the Pale of Settlement and *all* anti-Semitic laws (which he hopes will improve Russia's reputation in the eyes of foreign investors). Also, Regent Michael establishes a formal alliance between Russia and Austria-Hungary (both of which are *extremely* wary of German Kaiser Wilhelm II's support of national self-determination).
-1925: Fearful of the possibility of eventually being overshadowed by Russia and Austria-Hungary (due to Russia's greater population and due to the fact that both Russia and Austria-Hungary now have leaders who are committed to aggressive economic development and industrialization), Germany and Italy decide (at one of their war councils) that it would be best for them to go to war with Russia and Austria-Hungary sooner rather than later. Thus, German Kaiser Wilhelm II gives Italy a "blank check" to support ethnic agitation in Austria-Hungary.
-1931: Italy's attempts at and support of ethnic agitation in Austria-Hungary finally pay off when some ethnic Italians in Austria-Hungary rebel and demand to be annexed to Italy. When Franz Ferdinand begins trying to crush this rebellion, German Kaiser Wilhelm II quickly gives Franz Ferdinand an ultimatum: Allow Italy to annex *all* Italian-majority areas of Austria-Hungary or go to war against both Germany and Italy. Under pressure from Russian Tsar Alexander IV (who has already come of age by now), Franz Ferdinand backs down and agrees to allow Italy to annex *all* Italian-majority areas of Austria-Hungary. Thus, war is avoided--for now.
-1932: Emboldened by Italy's success in regards to this, Romania likewise begins to support ethnic agitation in Austria-Hungary--specifically in Transylvania.
-1935: Romania's efforts (with some help from both Germany and Italy, of course) finally pay off when an ethnic Romanian rebellion breaks out in Transylvania. Similar to what occurred in 1931, German Kaiser Wilhelm II and his Italian allies give Austria-Hungary an ultimatum to allow Romania to annex *all* of the Romanian-majority parts of Austria-Hungary (along with Hungarian-majority Szekely Land, which is completely surrounded by Romanian-majority areas) or go to war against both Germany and Italy. By this point in time, both Franz Ferdinand and Russian Tsar Alexander IV had enough of separatist agitation. Thus, with a "blank check" from Russian Tsar Alexander IV, Franz Ferdinand refuses to give up *any* more Austro-Hungarian territory and instead opts for war (with Russia fighting on his side, of course). Thus, a large-scale Eastern European war breaks out over Transylvania in 1935 in this TL. Indeed, in this war, at least initially, both Britain and France announce their intention to remain neutral.
Anyway, is this scenario (TL) of mine realistic?
If so, how exactly do you think that this large-scale 1930s Eastern European war will turn out? Any thoughts on this?
-1885: Prince Wilhelm (later Kaiser Wilhelm II) finds several books about France and French history in the Prussian royal palace. As a result of reading these books, Wilhelm becomes something of a Francophile and becomes upset and Franco-German relations are currently so poor.
-1888: Wilhelm becomes the German Kaiser after the death of both his grandfather and his father. Shortly afterwards, he convinces German Chancellor Otto von Bismarck about the need to improve Germany's relations with France. Wilhelm argues that a hostile France is a long-term danger to Germany and that it's thus better to try finding and creating some sort of rapprochement with France than to continue Franco-German hostility indefinitely. In turn, Bismarck quickly begins a push to convince lower-level German officials and Cabinet members to support his and Kaiser Wilhelm II's position in regards to improving Germany's relations with France.
-1889: Kaiser Wilhelm II sends some German envoys and diplomats to France in order to tell France that Germany wants to improve Franco-German relations. In response, France demands the unconditional return of *all* of Alsace-Lorraine before such an improvement can occur. Wilhelm and Bismarck refuse this French demand but announce that they are willing to seek a compromise with France in regards to this. Thus, *extremely* intense Franco-German negotiations in regards to this begin shortly afterwards.
-1890: Bismarck convinces Kaiser Wilhelm II to renew the Reinsurance Treaty with Russia for an additional ten years. Meanwhile, Wilhelm convinces Bismarck to compromise in Parliament in regards to anti-socialist legislation--at least temporarily (as in, for the time being). Thus, Wilhelm avoids firing Bismarck for the time being.
-1891: A breakthrough occurs in Franco-German negotiations. France and Germany reach a compromise where Alsace-Lorraine will be granted extensive autonomy within Germany for 25 years, after which point a(n internationally monitored) sovereignty referendum (plebiscite) will occur in Alsace-Lorraine to determine Alsace-Lorraine's final status. After this sovereignty referendum is conducted, *all* of Alsace-Lorraine will become *permanently* demilitarized *regardless* of the outcome of this sovereignty referendum (which in turn placates the south German states who are worried about their security in the event that some or all of Alsace-Lorraine will be returned to France in 25 years).
-1892: After *a lot* of *extremely heavy* arm-twisting, Bismarck is able to get the German Reichstag to approve the deal that Germany and France reached in regards to Alsace-Lorraine. As a result of this deal, German Kaiser Wilhelm II becomes *extremely* popular in both Alsace-Lorraine and France. During his visit to both Alsace-Lorraine and France later that same year, Wilhelm is overjoyed at how much cheers and applause he receives in both Alsace-Lorraine and France. (For the record, the sovereignty plebiscite in Alsace-Lorraine will be held in 1917 while Alsace-Lorraine receives extreme autonomy within Germany starting from 1892.)
-1893: With the Alsace-Lorraine issue out of the way (at least for the time being), Bismarck resumes his push for aggressive anti-socialist legislation in the German Reichstag. In response to this, German Kaiser Wilhelm II fires Bismarck and concludes that Bismarck has already outlasted his value by now. In addition to this, seeing the popularity that the Alsace-Lorraine deal brought for him in both Alsace-Lorraine and France, German Kaiser Wilhelm II becomes a champion of and a spokesman (albeit at inconsistent one) for national self-determination. While this *isn't* initially a big deal, it certainly becomes a big deal over the years and decades.
-1894: In order to improve his own popularity among German nationalists after the Alsace-Lorraine deal with France, German Kaiser Wilhelm II makes a deal with Russia to encourage ethnic Germans from Russia to immigrate to Germany (and to settle in either Posen Province or the Polish Corridor in order to strengthen the ethnic German presence in both of these areas).
-1895: Seeing the new Russian Tsar Nicholas II's need for large-scale loans in order to help finance Russia's industrialization, Wilhelm offers to purchase the strategic Suwalki Gubernia from Russia for a relatively large amount of money (which, in turn, will help provide the loans for Russia's industrialization). After thinking it over for a little bit and realizing that Russia cannot get as much large-scale loans from France as it desires (after all, France certainly *doesn't* have as much incentive to help finance Russia's industrialization in this TL as it did in our TL), Nicholas reluctantly agrees to Wilhelm's offer (an offer which is subsequently ratified by the German Reichstag). The purchase of the strategic Suwalki Gubernia from Russia and the agreement with Russia to encourage ethnic Germans in Russia to immigrate to Germany certainly make German Kaiser Wilhelm II *extremely* popular among the German people--*including* among German nationalists.
-1897: German Kaiser Wilhelm II successfully pushes through a program of large-scale German naval construction, thus making him even more popular among German nationalists. However, Wilhelm also engages in careful diplomacy with Britain in order to try reaching an understanding with Britain in regards to this that will satisfy both German and British interests.
-1900: The Reinsurance Treaty between Germany and Russia is renewed for another five years.
-1904: Russia and Japan go to war.
-1905: Russia gets defeated in the Russo-Japanese War and loses Southern Sakhalin as well as its sphere of influence in Manchuria. Meanwhile, a revolution breaks out in Russia against Tsar Nicholas II's autocratic rule and in response to Russia's defeat by Japan. German Kaiser Wilhelm II, sensing Russia's weakness, offers to purchase Lithuania and Courland from Russia for a large amount of money. Nicholas, already humiliated by Japan and dealing with revolution at home, refuses Wilhelm's offer--thus infuriating Wilhelm. As a result of his anger against Russia, Wilhelm refuses to renew the Reinsurance Treaty with Russia one more time.
-1906: Still angry at Russia, Wilhelm begins aggressively promoting nationalism and nationalistic agitation within Russia. (Indeed, Wilhelm simply views this as an embodiment of his support for national self-determination.) In addition to this, Wilhelm begins aggressively criticizing Russia for its anti-Semitism and encourages Russian Jews to immigrate to Germany (while simultaneously *strongly* condemning anti-Semitism in Germany). Also, Wilhelm decides to extend his support of national self-determination to Germany's ally Austria-Hungary by criticizing Austria-Hungary for its inability to sufficiently deal with its "nationalities question" and by claiming that this is the reason for Austria-Hungary's relative backwardness. In response to this German agitation, Russia and Austria-Hungary begin moving closer together (after all, France still refuses to ally with Russia at this point in time) and begin trying to settle their differences in the Balkans.
-1908: Russia reluctantly allows Austria-Hungary to annex Bosnia and Herzegovina in exchange for having Austria-Hungary break off its alliance with Germany. Indeed, by this point in time, Austria-Hungary becomes convinced that German Kaiser Wilhelm II's support for national self-determination is a potential danger to the very unity and existence of Austria-Hungary. Plus, as a result of his arrogance, German Kaiser Wilhelm II frequently publicly boasts of Germany's military and industrial superiority over Austria-Hungary--thus further alienating Austria-Hungary from Germany.
-1909: Germany and Italy (whose leadership loves listening to German Kaiser Wilhelm II speak about national self-determination due to Italy's (informal) territorial claims against Austria-Hungary) strengthen their alliance (which becomes the known as the Dual Alliance due to Austria-Hungary's exit from the Triple Alliance the previous year) in order to better counter warming ties between Austria-Hungary and Russia.
-1912: Germany successfully reaches a final agreement with Britain in regards to German naval expansion. Afterwards, German-British relations--which were already relatively good due to Kaiser Wilhelm II's skillful diplomacy in regards to Britain--improve even further. Also, after the Social Democrats win a plurality in the German Reichstag that same year, German Kaiser Wilhelm II successfully establishes a type of modus vivendi with the Social Democrats; to elaborate on this, Wilhelm agrees to support most of the Social Democrats' domestic policy proposals in exchange for the Social Democrats refusing to strongly interfere in Wilhelm's conduct of foreign policy.
-1917: Emperor Franz Joseph of Austria-Hungary passes away. Afterwards, his successor Franz Ferdinand's (who *wasn't* assassinated in this TL) plans to introduce universal suffrage in Hungary cause the Hungarians to refuse to renew the Ausgleich in 1917. Thus, a civil war breaks out in Austria-Hungary. While Russia enthusiastically supports Franz Ferdinand, German Kaiser Wilhelm II is more reserved in his response to this civil war; while he supports Franz Ferdinand's plans to introduce universal suffrage in Hungary, Wilhelm also encourages Franz Ferdinand to support greater national self-determination for the various ethnic groups in Austria-Hungary (a statement which *strongly* angers Franz Ferdinand since he interprets it as German support for a break-up of Austria-Hungary). While Italy wants to exploit the civil war in Austria-Hungary to conquer some territory from Austria-Hungary, German Kaiser Wilhelm II successfully retrains Italy in regards to this and argues that right now *isn't* the time to resolve territorial disputes with Austria-Hungary. Thus, Franz Ferdinand is able to quickly crush this Hungarian rebellion and to successfully introduce universal suffrage in Hungary afterwards, thus significantly weakening the power of the Magyar (Hungarian) nobility. Also, Franz Ferdinand begins pushing aggressive economic reform in Austria-Hungary in order to try strengthening Austria-Hungary's economy and in order to try increasing the rate/pace of Austria-Hungary's industrialization.
-1918: As a result of the civil war in Austria-Hungary, France allowed Germany to postpone the sovereignty plebiscite in Alsace-Lorraine by one year. When this sovereignty plebiscite was finally held in 1918, most of Alsace-Lorraine voted to rejoin France while parts of Alsace-Lorraine, being thankful for the large autonomy that Germany granted them starting from the early 1890s, voted to remain a part of Germany (while keeping their large autonomy, of course). After this plebiscite was conducted, Germany and France quickly drew a mutually agreeable new border between the two of them in Alsace-Lorraine while *all* of Alsace-Lorraine became *permanently* demilitarized afterwards (as per the Franco-German agreement in regards to Alsace-Lorraine in the early 1890s).
-1919: Russian Tsarevich Alexis dies as a result of excessive bleeding which he sustained after an accidental fall (bleeding which *couldn't* stop due to his hemophilia). Due to the butterfly effect, in this TL, Russian Tsar Nicholas II has a second son, the non-hemophiliac Alexander. As a result of Alexis's death, Alexander becomes the new Russian Tsarevich. Also, as a result of Alexis's death, Rasputin is quickly expelled from the Russian royal household.
-1920: An attempt by the Social Democrats and German Kaiser Wilhelm II to introduce universal conscription in Germany results in a coup attempt by dissatisfied Prussian Junkers (who fear that universal conscription will reduce their influence in the German military). After this coup attempt fails, the leaders of this coup attempt are summarily tried and executed. Afterwards, Wilhelm and the Social Democrats successfully push through their plan to introduce universal conscription in Germany. In turn, this certainly strengthens and increases the (total) size of the German military (in comparison to the situation before).
-1921: Russian Tsar Nicholas II is assassinated by radical socialist revolutionaries. On his death bed, Nicholas declares that his younger brother Michael, rather than his wife Alexandra, will be the Regent for the Tsarevich Alexander until Alexander becomes of age. Meanwhile, the Tsarevich Alexander becomes known as Tsar Alexander IV (albeit under his under Michael's regency).
-1922: Frustrated at the relatively slow pace of Russia's industrialization (in comparison to countries such as Britain, Germany, and the U.S.), Regent Michael of Russia announces some large-scale economic reforms as well as an abolition of both the Pale of Settlement and *all* anti-Semitic laws (which he hopes will improve Russia's reputation in the eyes of foreign investors). Also, Regent Michael establishes a formal alliance between Russia and Austria-Hungary (both of which are *extremely* wary of German Kaiser Wilhelm II's support of national self-determination).
-1925: Fearful of the possibility of eventually being overshadowed by Russia and Austria-Hungary (due to Russia's greater population and due to the fact that both Russia and Austria-Hungary now have leaders who are committed to aggressive economic development and industrialization), Germany and Italy decide (at one of their war councils) that it would be best for them to go to war with Russia and Austria-Hungary sooner rather than later. Thus, German Kaiser Wilhelm II gives Italy a "blank check" to support ethnic agitation in Austria-Hungary.
-1931: Italy's attempts at and support of ethnic agitation in Austria-Hungary finally pay off when some ethnic Italians in Austria-Hungary rebel and demand to be annexed to Italy. When Franz Ferdinand begins trying to crush this rebellion, German Kaiser Wilhelm II quickly gives Franz Ferdinand an ultimatum: Allow Italy to annex *all* Italian-majority areas of Austria-Hungary or go to war against both Germany and Italy. Under pressure from Russian Tsar Alexander IV (who has already come of age by now), Franz Ferdinand backs down and agrees to allow Italy to annex *all* Italian-majority areas of Austria-Hungary. Thus, war is avoided--for now.
-1932: Emboldened by Italy's success in regards to this, Romania likewise begins to support ethnic agitation in Austria-Hungary--specifically in Transylvania.
-1935: Romania's efforts (with some help from both Germany and Italy, of course) finally pay off when an ethnic Romanian rebellion breaks out in Transylvania. Similar to what occurred in 1931, German Kaiser Wilhelm II and his Italian allies give Austria-Hungary an ultimatum to allow Romania to annex *all* of the Romanian-majority parts of Austria-Hungary (along with Hungarian-majority Szekely Land, which is completely surrounded by Romanian-majority areas) or go to war against both Germany and Italy. By this point in time, both Franz Ferdinand and Russian Tsar Alexander IV had enough of separatist agitation. Thus, with a "blank check" from Russian Tsar Alexander IV, Franz Ferdinand refuses to give up *any* more Austro-Hungarian territory and instead opts for war (with Russia fighting on his side, of course). Thus, a large-scale Eastern European war breaks out over Transylvania in 1935 in this TL. Indeed, in this war, at least initially, both Britain and France announce their intention to remain neutral.
Anyway, is this scenario (TL) of mine realistic?
If so, how exactly do you think that this large-scale 1930s Eastern European war will turn out? Any thoughts on this?
However, sometimes writing alternate history certainly *isn't* either easy or quick! 