futurist
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Post by futurist on Aug 9, 2016 23:42:24 GMT
If Brexit actually occurs (as is likely, IMHO--else, the Brexit referendum would become a complete joke and mockery!), do you think that Scotland will vote to secede from the U.K. within 10 years after Brexit actually occurs?
Indeed, any thoughts on this?
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Aug 10, 2016 2:57:04 GMT
If Brexit actually occurs (as is likely, IMHO--else, the Brexit referendum would become a complete joke and mockery!), do you think that Scotland will vote to secede from the U.K. within 10 years after Brexit actually occurs? Indeed, any thoughts on this? Strangely enough there has 'No real shift' towards Scottish independence since Brexit vote - poll |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Aug 10, 2016 13:55:27 GMT
They definitely have the basis for a new vote, since part of the basis for the vote for continued union was to avoid being excluded from the EU. [Although the last I heard the current Tory government are denying this!]
Presuming this happens whether the Scots vote to leave or not will depend on the circumstances. Sturgeon definitely won't go for a vote unless she's certain of winning it - although she might be nudged by pressure from below in theory. However unclear how likely either result would be.
In large part a lot would depend on how things go in Britain as a whole. If the worst suggestions of the disatisfied Remain camp prove to be wrong then the continuation of the union could look a lot more attractive than leaving. Especially with the EU sounding less than positive on the chances of an independent Scotland being able to get 'back' into the EU quickly. This is basically because a number of EU states don't want to set an example that encourages their own separtities. If that isn't the case then it would also mean that Scotland would be forced to accept the Euro. Also would they rather be ~10% of the UK or ~1% of the EU?
Alternatively the Scots have reason to distrust - not to mention hate - the Tory party which with the mess the other main parties are in looks pretty certain to be in power until ~2025. Whether their actually going to do any better outside the UK might not make a difference to that.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Aug 10, 2016 14:00:50 GMT
They definitely have the basis for a new vote, since part of the basis for the vote for continued union was to avoid being excluded from the EU. [Although the last I heard the current Tory government are denying this!] Presuming this happens whether the Scots vote to leave or not will depend on the circumstances. Sturgeon definitely won't go for a vote unless she's certain of winning it - although she might be nudged by pressure from below in theory. However unclear how likely either result would be. In large part a lot would depend on how things go in Britain as a whole. If the worst suggestions of the disatisfied Remain camp prove to be wrong then the continuation of the union could look a lot more attractive than leaving. Especially with the EU sounding less than positive on the chances of an independent Scotland being able to get 'back' into the EU quickly. This is basically because a number of EU states don't want to set an example that encourages their own separtities. If that isn't the case then it would also mean that Scotland would be forced to accept the Euro. Also would they rather be ~10% of the UK or ~1% of the EU? Alternatively the Scots have reason to distrust - not to mention hate - the Tory party which with the mess the other main parties are in looks pretty certain to be in power until ~2025. Whether their actually going to do any better outside the UK might not make a difference to that. But the question is, if Scotland leave there is no guarantee they become a member of the EU as Spain might under Article 49, block the membership as they fear it might increase secessionist aspirations in Catalonia and the Basque Country. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Aug 10, 2016 14:14:35 GMT
They definitely have the basis for a new vote, since part of the basis for the vote for continued union was to avoid being excluded from the EU. [Although the last I heard the current Tory government are denying this!] Presuming this happens whether the Scots vote to leave or not will depend on the circumstances. Sturgeon definitely won't go for a vote unless she's certain of winning it - although she might be nudged by pressure from below in theory. However unclear how likely either result would be. In large part a lot would depend on how things go in Britain as a whole. If the worst suggestions of the disatisfied Remain camp prove to be wrong then the continuation of the union could look a lot more attractive than leaving. Especially with the EU sounding less than positive on the chances of an independent Scotland being able to get 'back' into the EU quickly. This is basically because a number of EU states don't want to set an example that encourages their own separtities. If that isn't the case then it would also mean that Scotland would be forced to accept the Euro. Also would they rather be ~10% of the UK or ~1% of the EU? Alternatively the Scots have reason to distrust - not to mention hate - the Tory party which with the mess the other main parties are in looks pretty certain to be in power until ~2025. Whether their actually going to do any better outside the UK might not make a difference to that. But the question is, if Scotland leave there is no guarantee they become a member of the EU as Spain might under Article 49, block the membership as they fear it might increase secessionist aspirations in Catalonia and the Basque Country. Very true, which could be a major factor in either the SNP not risking a 2nd referendum or them losing it. |
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Aug 10, 2016 14:19:00 GMT
But the question is, if Scotland leave there is no guarantee they become a member of the EU as Spain might under Article 49, block the membership as they fear it might increase secessionist aspirations in Catalonia and the Basque Country. Very true, which could be a major factor in either the SNP not risking a 2nd referendum or them losing it. But she needs to keep up the show to here Scottish voters that she is doing here best, not doing anything will not be something she will survive as head of the Scottish Government. (should i move this thread to Political Chat or keep it here) |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Aug 10, 2016 14:25:31 GMT
Very true, which could be a major factor in either the SNP not risking a 2nd referendum or them losing it. But she needs to keep up the show to here Scottish voters that she is doing here best, not doing anything will not be something she will survive as head of the Scottish Government. (should i move this thread to Political Chat or keep it here) Agreed she needs to and will talk the talk but not necessarily walk the walk. On where it goes could go either way. Fairly political as a subject but also something that could happen in the near future. Don't know if any others have strong opinions? |
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Aug 10, 2016 14:30:25 GMT
But she needs to keep up the show to here Scottish voters that she is doing here best, not doing anything will not be something she will survive as head of the Scottish Government. (should i move this thread to Political Chat or keep it here) Agreed she needs to and will talk the talk but not necessarily walk the walk. Could Scotland not become a special member of the EU will still be part of the United Kingdom. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Aug 10, 2016 16:44:06 GMT
Agreed she needs to and will talk the talk but not necessarily walk the walk. Could Scotland not become a special member of the EU will still be part of the United Kingdom. I can't see Brussels allowing that and suspect London would be doubtful as well. Plus given the trade barriers the EU imposes it would be bloody complex. How could you tell what was produced in Scotland and what in other parts of the UK for instance? Also when there was a clash between UK and EU rules which would apply in Scotland? |
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Aug 10, 2016 16:47:50 GMT
Could Scotland not become a special member of the EU will still be part of the United Kingdom. I can't see Brussels allowing that and suspect London would be doubtful as well. Plus given the trade barriers the EU imposes it would be bloody complex. How could you tell what was produced in Scotland and what in other parts of the UK for instance? Also when there was a clash between UK and EU rules which would apply in Scotland? That is true, was only a idea, something i think they have also toughed of in Scotland itself, like many other scenarios i think, but the fact is, Scotland needs to be 100% what it get with the EU before holding a referendum otherwise they might be separated from the United Kingdom while not being a member of the EU, that would be much worst than what Scotland is in now. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Aug 10, 2016 16:49:46 GMT
I can't see Brussels allowing that and suspect London would be doubtful as well. Plus given the trade barriers the EU imposes it would be bloody complex. How could you tell what was produced in Scotland and what in other parts of the UK for instance? Also when there was a clash between UK and EU rules which would apply in Scotland? That is true, was only a idea, something i think they have also toughed of in Scotland itself, like many other scenarios i think, but the fact is, Scotland needs to be 100% what it get with the EU before holding a referendum otherwise they might be separated from the United Kingdom while not being a member of the EU, that would be much worst than what Scotland is in now. That would be important but I suspect very difficult, especially considering how cautious the EU is about offering Scotland at the moment. |
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Aug 10, 2016 16:51:39 GMT
That is true, was only a idea, something i think they have also toughed of in Scotland itself, like many other scenarios i think, but the fact is, Scotland needs to be 100% what it get with the EU before holding a referendum otherwise they might be separated from the United Kingdom while not being a member of the EU, that would be much worst than what Scotland is in now. That would be important but I suspect very difficult, especially considering how cautious the EU is about offering Scotland at the moment. Well then Scotland will have for this moment no choice to remain a part of the United Kingdom because alone it will be harder for it then united. |
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