A German-Russian Alliance

Once this alliance switch gets entrenched, it causes a general realignment of the European alliance system. Alienated Austria-Hungary forms the Entente with France, a Britain fearful of the German-Russian power combo joins it as soon as it drops its splendid isolation stance, Turkey does so as well out of fear of increased power of its traditional Russian enemy. Italy clings to its Triple Alliance with Germany and Russia like dear life since both of its traditional rivals and the owners of everything the Italians want in Europe are in the other bloc, only it possibly delays its intervention in a general European war to the moment either France or much more likely A-H starts to weaken, due to its fear of an encirclement by France, Austria, and the Royal Navy. Minor states with irredentist ambitions on A-H or Ottoman territory such as Serbia, Romania, and Greece align with the Triple Alliance, only possibly at least some of them opportunistically delaying their intervention kinda like Italy. Japan confirms its alliance with Britain, which encourages its ambitions on Manchuria and the Russian Far East. America remains uncaring of the European disputes.

Once *WWI inevitably starts for one reason or another, the Triple Alliance reaps a decisive victory, short of America joining the Entente from the beginning (terribly unlikely; as a matter of fact, the USA very likely stays neutral, since Germany has little reason to use unrestricted submarine warfare ITTL; it may easily defy the British blockade by trading with Russia, and once A-H falls, so does Italy). Germany and Italy pick a defensive stance in the West, and join hands with Russia, Serbia, and Romania to crush A-H with a multi-front attack. The Habsburg empire soon collapses. Britain honors its alliance with the Entente but can do little to save the Habsburg. The Triple Alliance pools its resources to wear down first France, then Turkey with superior numbers, and violates Belgium's neutrality to expand the Western front. Despite British help, France is eventually overwhelmed by a relentless German-Italian-Russian attack from the Flanders to Provence and collapses. The allies cooperate again to crush the Turks with a two-front offensive towards Constantinople and eastern Anatolia. The British try their best to help their allies, but in the end it isn't enough. Their clumsy attempt to stage a landing in Italy becomes TTL Gallipoli. After Britain is left alone staring a continent under complete control of the Triple Alliance it is forced to accept a compromise peace. A-H and the Ottoman Empire are partitioned, France loses Longwy, Briey, Luxemburg, Nice, Corsica, Savoy, Morocco, Tunisia, Central Africa, various bits of land in Lorraine and the Alps, and is burdened with disarmament and onerous reparations. Britain accepts a white peace and returns the German and Italian colonies rather than being shut off from trade with Europe. America does not really care, it is just increasingly eager to resume normal trade with Europe and increasingly annoyed with British blockade.

Presuming the worst, as Eurofed generally does, I could see the central powers winning as he says but I can't see Britain returning occupied German and Italian colonies. For one thing their far too dangerous as bases for enemy forces when they resume attacks on Britain. For another thing Britain would be excluded from the continent anyway by the victorious powers protectionist policies.


For the same reason and the fact their not totally ignorant of external threats the US would be concerned about such a concentration of power in Europe, especially behind military autocracies. You would probably see a loose defensive alliance between Britain, Japan and the US against the common threat.

  Deltaforce

 I think the general argument is that there was growing tension between Austria and Russia over their respective interests in the Balkans, plus the threat Russian pan-slavism posed to the loyalty of at least some of Austria's Slavs.  [Although the nature of the Russian regime meant that many Slavs preferred Austrian to Russian domination].  As such it was seen as increasingly difficult for Germany to stay allied with both powers.  OTL the Kaiser's pan-German sentiment meant he picked Austria but TTL he picks Russia instead.  Its possible that Germany could also keep on good terms with Austria but is likely to be increasingly difficult as time goes on.

  Steve

 

Well, theoretically speaking, WWI was of course far from inevitable and it is perfectly possible it is averted or its consequences minimized (e.g. it starts but after A-H collapses, the great powers are able to agree on a white peace in the West in exchange for Anglo-French recognition of the partition of the Habsburg Empire). However, I would assume ITTL the conflict is even more likely as a combination of Habsburg ineptitude and instability, the ambitions of its neighbors, and the combined weight of German-Russian power. And given the uncompromising attitude of all warring powers during WWI, I'm driven to assume most likely the war would continue till decisive victory of one side. And ITTL the central powers have a clear advantage. Honestly I cannot see German and Italian colonies giving Berlin, Rome, and St. Petersburg any clear advantage for an attack against the British Empire if and when a second round occurs, because of geography. Either Britain keeps a clear naval advantage, and then those colonies would be quickly lost as it happened IOTL. Or the Central Powers would be able to build their combined naval power enough to challenge the RN, and then the British Empire is in deep trouble anyway regardless of whatever holdings their enemies have outside Europe. Anyway, I suppose the British may be made paranoid enough about the security of their colonies that lie close to German-Italian ones and sore losers enough by defeat to refuse to return German and Italian colonies at the peace table. I expect the Germans and Italians would deem this an acceptable price for the vast gains they would be able to seize in Europe.



Well, in these circumstances I can certainly see the Anglo-Japanese alliance being confirmed and strenghtened after WWI. However the Americans in this age were isolationist, uncaring of the European powers' squabbles for dominance, and business-oriented. They had no real reason to share British paranoia about continental hegemons, since they had the Atlantic and their own naval power to protect themselves. They might turn hostile to CP-dominated Europe if the CP mess with the Western Hemisphere or purposefully cut them off from trade with Europe. If they can trade normally with the continent, they are not really going to care who is top dog on the other side of the pond. From their PoV, the Kaiser and the Tsar seizing dominance is just another turn in the perennial European fights for power they have witnessed since the birth of their nation. They didn't care much when Napoleon run the show for a while, it is not going to be any really different ITTL unless the Central Powers mess with the Western Hemisphere or with US trade. By the way, to describe the Kaiserreich or the Kingdom of Italy as "military autocracies" is very wrong and Entente-biased. They had constitutions and parliaments with sizable socialist, Catholic, and liberal parties.

Depending on how the war starts and how it goes these soft factors could begin to play a larger role.  One of the key factors in getting a population rallied for war, especially a total war, is turning the enemy into an other. That's hard to do when the enemy is similar to you. Austrians and Bavarians are the same ethnicity, the same religion, and speak the same language (and even the same Upper German dialect). It has the potential to give the Austrians an advantage in occupying Bavarian territory, similar to how the Italians would have had an advantage in occupying some areas of Western Austria-Hungary where many Italians lived (which were annexed to Italy following World War I). Austria-Hungary actually borders Bavaria, so a separate peace between the two would be a more attractive option. If the Prussian conduct of the war proves controversial (as it historically did) then the Bavarians might start to lean towards Austria-Hungary as well.