futurist
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Post by futurist on Aug 5, 2016 0:17:46 GMT
Here's the scenario--the lack of an Iran hostage crisis combined with less anti-American rhetoric on the part of Ayatollah Khomeini causes the U.S. to be less hostile towards Iran. This, combined with a re-election for U.S. President Jimmy Carter in 1980 (due to the lack of an Iran hostage crisis and a less competent campaign on Reagan's part), causes the U.S. to remain genuinely neutral in the Iran-Iraq War instead of helping Iraq. In turn, this results in an Iranian victory in the Iran-Iraq War.
Anyway, what exactly would the post-war peace treaty as well as the post-war situation in Iraq and throughout the Middle East have looked like in this scenario?
Any thoughts on this?
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Post by kubocaskett on Aug 6, 2016 1:57:07 GMT
An Iranian victory would result in the Shia half of Iraq being annexed and the Iranians being more emboldened to spread its brand of religious fundamentalism across the middle east, bring itself into conflict with the Arab nations, Israel, Turkey, the USA, and the USSR; though the USSR might secretly support Iran since they both despise the US and the West. But then again the Iranians would support the Mujahedeen in Afghanistan and would make the Soviets bleed troops even more than OTL's and make the Soviets more willing to set differences aside with the West, sort of.
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futurist
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Post by futurist on Aug 6, 2016 7:01:28 GMT
An Iranian victory would result in the Shia half of Iraq being annexed and the Iranians being more emboldened to spread its brand of religious fundamentalism across the middle east, bring itself into conflict with the Arab nations, Israel, Turkey, the USA, and the USSR; though the USSR might secretly support Iran since they both despise the US and the West. But then again the Iranians would support the Mujahedeen in Afghanistan and would make the Soviets bleed troops even more than OTL's and make the Soviets more willing to set differences aside with the West, sort of. I don't think that Iraqi Shiites actually want(ed) to be annexed by Iran, though. |
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Aug 6, 2016 9:35:52 GMT
An Iranian victory would result in the Shia half of Iraq being annexed and the Iranians being more emboldened to spread its brand of religious fundamentalism across the middle east, bring itself into conflict with the Arab nations, Israel, Turkey, the USA, and the USSR; though the USSR might secretly support Iran since they both despise the US and the West. But then again the Iranians would support the Mujahedeen in Afghanistan and would make the Soviets bleed troops even more than OTL's and make the Soviets more willing to set differences aside with the West, sort of. I don't think that Iraqi Shiites actually want(ed) to be annexed by Iran, though. Maybe become a puppet state of Iran instead. |
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Post by kubocaskett on Aug 6, 2016 14:23:24 GMT
I don't think that Iraqi Shiites actually want(ed) to be annexed by Iran, though. Maybe become a puppet state of Iran instead. It can go either way, the Khomeini would like to get some reward for defeating one of it's arch enemies somehow. |
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Aug 6, 2016 14:28:00 GMT
Maybe become a puppet state of Iran instead. It can go either way, the Khomeini would like to get some reward for defeating one of it's arch enemies somehow. The problem is there is another one waiting in the shadow, Saudi Arabia is not going to like Iran having won the Iran-Iraq War. |
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Post by kubocaskett on Aug 6, 2016 15:02:21 GMT
It can go either way, the Khomeini would like to get some reward for defeating one of it's arch enemies somehow. The problem is there is another one waiting in the shadow, Saudi Arabia is not going to like Iran having won the Iran-Iraq War. Of course, that's why I said that a victorious Iran would bring itself into conflict with its Arab neighbors, even to the point of another conventional war. |
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Aug 6, 2016 15:07:26 GMT
The problem is there is another one waiting in the shadow, Saudi Arabia is not going to like Iran having won the Iran-Iraq War. Of course, that's why I said that a victorious Iran would bring itself into conflict with its Arab neighbors, even to the point of another conventional war. With Saudi Arabia, that means getting into conflict with the United States. |
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Post by kubocaskett on Aug 6, 2016 15:17:09 GMT
Of course, that's why I said that a victorious Iran would bring itself into conflict with its Arab neighbors, even to the point of another conventional war. With Saudi Arabia, that means getting into conflict with the United States. And given the sentiments towards Iran, the US wouldn't hesitate to confront Iran, perhaps leading to a major war in the Persian Gulf far greater than that of OTL's 1991 Gulf War. |
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Aug 6, 2016 15:34:32 GMT
With Saudi Arabia, that means getting into conflict with the United States. And given the sentiments towards Iran, the US wouldn't hesitate to confront Iran, perhaps leading to a major war in the Persian Gulf far greater than that of OTL's 1991 Gulf War. That would be cool to watch US Navy F-14 versus Iranian F-14s. |
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Post by kubocaskett on Aug 6, 2016 15:56:27 GMT
And given the sentiments towards Iran, the US wouldn't hesitate to confront Iran, perhaps leading to a major war in the Persian Gulf far greater than that of OTL's 1991 Gulf War. That would be cool to watch US Navy F-14 versus Iranian F-14s. My thoughts exactly, that kind of fight would definitely be the "match of the millennium" far more worthy of that title than SNK vs. Capcom (lol). |
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Aug 6, 2016 19:51:55 GMT
That would be cool to watch US Navy F-14 versus Iranian F-14s. My thoughts exactly, that kind of fight would definitely be the "match of the millennium" far more worthy of that title than SNK vs. Capcom (lol). Also i wonder how nervous Israel will get with a stronger Iran. |
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Post by kubocaskett on Aug 7, 2016 0:32:25 GMT
My thoughts exactly, that kind of fight would definitely be the "match of the millennium" far more worthy of that title than SNK vs. Capcom (lol). Also i wonder how nervous Israel will get with a stronger Iran. A lot, just like OTL but more to Red Scare levels of the 50's, and Jerusalem going to be making nukes very soon, not a good recipe for a long trouble region. |
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Aug 7, 2016 7:58:04 GMT
Also i wonder how nervous Israel will get with a stronger Iran. A lot, just like OTL but more to Red Scare levels of the 50's, and Jerusalem going to be making nukes very soon, not a good recipe for a long trouble region. They where already a nuclear power so why do you think they would increase production. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Aug 7, 2016 16:50:46 GMT
A lot, just like OTL but more to Red Scare levels of the 50's, and Jerusalem going to be making nukes very soon, not a good recipe for a long trouble region. They where already a nuclear power so why do you think they would increase production. Possibly the mentality that the more the better? Or that while they thought X warheads were enough to deter assorted Arab states the hard line fanatics of Iran need a lot more either to deter them or actuallty fight them with nukes? |
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