futurist
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Post by futurist on Aug 3, 2016 19:17:17 GMT
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Aug 3, 2016 19:20:29 GMT
Would mean that the Republic of Pisa survive a little bit longer than in OTL. |
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futurist
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Post by futurist on Aug 3, 2016 19:24:19 GMT
Would mean that the Republic of Pisa survive a little bit longer than in OTL. Yes--at least a little bit longer. Also, the rise of Genoa might be either delayed or outright prevented in this scenario. |
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Post by lordroel on Aug 3, 2016 19:31:26 GMT
Would mean that the Republic of Pisa survive a little bit longer than in OTL. Yes--at least a little bit longer. Also, the rise of Genoa might be either delayed or outright prevented in this scenario. I think that Republic of Genoa will try until they succeed, looking at both sides it seems that Genoa is the bigger and more powerful of the two. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Aug 3, 2016 19:38:18 GMT
It might depend on the degree of Pisan victory but a decisive one could well reverse the future of the two states at least in the short term. Genoa does seem to have a greater inerient capacity than Pisa and also Pisa also has to worry about land based neighbours, such as Florence and Lucca who might still attack. As such you are still likely to see Pisa fall to Florence probably at a later stage but it might be delayed.
If Genoa is heavily defeated how does it affect the situation with Byzantium, who might lose a chief ally as a result? Does it try and patch up a deal with say Venice or Pisa, or face additional problems with the western trade increasingly dominated by hostile powers.
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futurist
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Post by futurist on Aug 3, 2016 21:37:40 GMT
1. It might depend on the degree of Pisan victory but a decisive one could well reverse the future of the two states at least in the short term. Genoa does seem to have a greater inerient capacity than Pisa and also Pisa also has to worry about land based neighbours, such as Florence and Lucca who might still attack. As such you are still likely to see Pisa fall to Florence probably at a later stage but it might be delayed. 2. If Genoa is heavily defeated how does it affect the situation with Byzantium, who might lose a chief ally as a result? Does it try and patch up a deal with say Venice or Pisa, or face additional problems with the western trade increasingly dominated by hostile powers. 1. Completely agreed. 2. I think that the Byzantines would try and patch up a deal with Venice or Pisa in this scenario. After all, the Byzantines are already essentially on a death spiral by this point in time and thus desperately need to acquire friends and allies. |
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Post by futurist on Aug 3, 2016 21:38:25 GMT
Also, for the record, I was thinking of a decisive Pisan victory at Meloria.  |
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Aug 4, 2016 3:00:25 GMT
Also, for the record, I was thinking of a decisive Pisan victory at Meloria. Could the have won the battle in the first place. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Aug 4, 2016 20:31:47 GMT
In that time period, unless the side that lost were totally outclassed and poorly lead its possible for it to go the other way. Especially with the uncertainties of a naval battle.
There's an example I remember reading about from the Wars of the Roses, One encounter between three Yorkish battles and 4 Lancastians ones occurred in heavy fog. One of the Yorkish forces was defeated fairly quickly then in the confusion of the fog two of the Lancastian ones blundered into each other. Given the nature of the conflict, with a civil war and much manoeuvring both groups assumed treachery and engaged in a bitter fight and the Yorkists actually ended up winning the battle.
With a naval encounter weather can have other effects, especially say a sudden storm that damages or delays a component of a force so it doesn't reach the battle in time. A spy giving the Pisans vital information. A commander getting drunk or having a violent disagreement with one of his colleagues. Possibly some political manoeuvring means that an incompetent commander leads part of the Genoan fleet to disaster, runs it onto shoals or misses the battle completely.
As such I think some butterflies should make it possible for the Pisans to win, possibly with a crushing victory. Whether it helps them in the longer run is a different matter but it might.
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