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Post by whiteshore on Jul 30, 2016 3:43:36 GMT
What if the Holy Alliance tried to intervene in the Americas in the late-1810s to early-1820s to restore "legitimate rule" over "rebellious colonies" (read: make sure Spain/Portugal retain their colonies) and let's say Britain goes along with it and the US is distracted by either Indian problems or an earlier nullification crisis? How successful would it be?
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Jul 30, 2016 3:50:42 GMT
What if the Holy Alliance tried to intervene in the Americas in the late-1810s to early-1820s to restore "legitimate rule" over "rebellious colonies" (read: make sure Spain/Portugal retain their colonies) and let's say Britain goes along with it and the US is distracted by either Indian problems or an earlier nullification crisis? How successful would it be? Are you speaking of the Holy Alliance created by the monarchist great powers of Russia, Austria and Prussia.
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Post by whiteshore on Jul 30, 2016 5:25:50 GMT
Yes, and let's say that France goes along with it as well.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Jul 30, 2016 10:33:53 GMT
Yes, and let's say that France goes along with it as well. You mean France, the country who had removed Napoleon only few years back and a country who fought all three members of the Holy Alliance.
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Post by whiteshore on Jul 30, 2016 11:45:54 GMT
By "goes along", I mean that France turns a blind eye to the intervention.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Jul 30, 2016 11:57:35 GMT
By "goes along", I mean that France turns a blind eye to the intervention. Well that might be better as i do not think they are in the shape to join their former enemies in a alliance.
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Post by whiteshore on Jul 30, 2016 12:13:23 GMT
So, how successful do you think would the Holy Alliance's intervention in support of the colonial regimes in Latin America be?
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Jul 30, 2016 13:13:57 GMT
So, how successful do you think would the Holy Alliance's intervention in support of the colonial regimes in Latin America be? Its only going to be a successes if the have the ships to transport men to North America, but in time period you describe neither the Russia, Austria and Prussia had a sea going navies to do that if i am right.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jul 30, 2016 16:36:03 GMT
Actually I think it was France, which had an autocratic Bourbon monarchy restored, which was the prime driver in supporting their Bourbon cousins in Spain in 'protecting/restoring' their colonies in the Americas. They had been the power that restored Ferdinard's absolutionist rule in Spain itself after a liberal constitution was estbalished. See en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Canning#Foreign_Secretary_and_Leader_of_the_House for some more details. This was the period when the so called Monroe doctrine came into existance as Britain had suggested a joined declaration between the two powers oppoising French support for Spain regaining its colonies but the US government didn't want to be seen to be tied to British policy. If Britain hadn't opposed such a move you would probably have seen some substantial French forces sent to the Americas and, for a while at least, Spanish rule being re-established. However its likely to fail within a few decades at most simply because Spain had been shown to be unable to maintain its rule by force and under a monarch like Ferdinard was unwilling to consider any other way. Sooner or later France is going to be unwilling to carry the burden and once they withdraw, possibly an earlier July Revolution, see en.wikipedia.org/wiki/July_Revolution, resistance will be renewed and Spain will increasingly lose its grip. Spain itself went through several civil wars during the 19thC and any one of them is likely to mean the rapid collapse of any reminance of the mainland empire although outposts like Cuba and Puerto Rico might stay under Spanish rule as OTL. The other continental reactionary powers may support France in such a bid, at least initially, as it would fit their opposition to liberalism and reform in just about any form. However if it looked like a Franco-Spanish bloc was regaining control of the Spanish American colonies then some of them might fear that France was establishing too strong an empire and be worried. I'm pretty certain Britain definitely would. The US would oppose such a move politically and probably make some moves to support rebels, say by some smuggling of arms to them. However their unlikely to do anything that would incite a war with France as it would seem far too powerful at this point for them to risk this. At least unless they understood the underlying weakness of the French or had promisies of British support.
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Post by whiteshore on Jul 31, 2016 0:39:34 GMT
So, how does a "successful" intervention by the Holy Alliance in Latin America affect US and British domestic politics? Could we see the process of democrscy there slow down for a while with the Southern planter elite becoming more powerful in the US and electoral reforms taking longer to pass?
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Jul 31, 2016 7:44:42 GMT
So, how does a "successful" intervention by the Holy Alliance in Latin America affect US and British domestic politics? Could we see the process of democrscy there slow down for a while with the Southern planter elite becoming more powerful in the US and electoral reforms taking longer to pass? Are you suggesting the US and the UK should team up to defeat the Holy Alliance.
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Post by whiteshore on Jul 31, 2016 10:28:45 GMT
No, but I'm sure that quite a few political leaders in both countries panic in the aftermath.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Jul 31, 2016 10:48:39 GMT
No, but I'm sure that quite a few political leaders in both countries panic in the aftermath. The United states survived the War of 1812 with out having slowed down its democratic values so it think this war will not change that.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jul 31, 2016 15:20:11 GMT
So, how does a "successful" intervention by the Holy Alliance in Latin America affect US and British domestic politics? Could we see the process of democrscy there slow down for a while with the Southern planter elite becoming more powerful in the US and electoral reforms taking longer to pass? I think you may be putting the cart before the horse. It would require some political change in Britain to prevent it, albeit largely diplomatically, blocking any French intervention in support of Spain as OTL. As the link for Canning's career mentions, apart from any morale choices this had benefits for Britain in opening up markets in the Americas, which would otherwise be restricted/blocked by Spanish trade policies. Therefore you would have to assume that Britain for whatever reason stands aside, at least at first. If so France is likely to intervene as it highly unlikely be deterred by anything the US says. The latter lacks the military strength to threaten either France or Spain meaningfully at this point and might be more wary of any such intervention after the costs of the 1812 conflict. If it does try and intervene it can send arms and volunteers to rebels in Mexico and the Caribbean but probably not much further afield. Possibly even seek to wage a commerce war against trade. However the latter especially is likely to prompt a powerful French response. They could end up having a large force raiding the US coastal settlements. Which are likely to be sufficiently larger and more destructive than the British raids in 1814. [If Washington gets captured this time it could well get burnt! While operating under a Bourbon monarchy the troops and many of the commanders are going to be veterans of Napoleon's wars and likely to revert to his methods in 'enemy' territory.] If at some point Britain does intervene that would stop things fairly quickly, simply because the RN is so much more powerful at this point. If it doesn't then, as mentioned in my previous post the Spanish are likely to have some success until some problems or other result in the drastic withdrawal/reduction of French aid. Then things could fall apart dramatically, although Spain might hold some continental areas longer than OTL. [Checking up Peru and Bolivia were only really cleared of Spanish/loyalist forces in 1823/24 so if we assume a French intervention in their aid in 1821/22 the rebels could see some serious set-backs.] In terms of US policy in the event the French intervene and the US stands by then I'm a bit uncertain. The southern plantation holders, who wish to expand the areas open to slavery will look towards Spanish territory in what is now Texas and the Carribean so they might support opposing the French. On the other hand since conflict between the US and the Bourbon powers could reopen the question of the status of Florida and Louisiana they might be more cautious. For the rest of the population there might be a general desire to support independence movements but whether it would be powerful enough to prompt them to a war with a great European power while the latter is not distracted by another greater war, which would be a bold step. also there might be some concern in the north that any such independence states will be vulnerable to southern moves to expand slavery.
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cornelis
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Post by cornelis on Aug 22, 2016 21:46:50 GMT
One forgotten element is internal french politics. The Bourbons were not populars kings, especially Charles X. The Spanish intervention was heavily contested by the Liberals and its costs were seen by many as unbearable by the Treasury. An intervention overseas, with its costs in men and cash, in order to keep new nations "under the heel of tyrants" was likely to induce far more discontent, even an earlier Revolution.
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