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Post by whiteshore on Jul 23, 2016 10:29:27 GMT
Let's say that the Kyujo incident succeeds in installing a fanatical government led by a triumvirate of General Anami, Marshal Sugiyama, and Colonel Hatanaka which fights on until the bitter end. So, how long can Japan fight on? What about Japanese forces in China, Indochina, Korea, Malaya, Indonesia, and the small islands in the Indian and Pacific Oceans still held by Japan? How long would it take for them to be mopped up?
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Jul 23, 2016 10:36:58 GMT
Let's say that the Kyujo incident succeeds in installing a fanatical government led by a triumvirate of General Anami, Marshal Sugiyama, and Colonel Hatanaka which fights on until the bitter end. So, how long can Japan fight on? What about Japanese forces in China, Indochina, Korea, Malaya, Indonesia, and the small islands in the Indian and Pacific Oceans still held by Japan? How long would it take for them to be mopped up? A lot more atomic bombs will rain on Japan and we see the Allies invade the country itself if Japan refuse to surrender.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jul 23, 2016 10:49:53 GMT
Let's say that the Kyujo incident succeeds in installing a fanatical government led by a triumvirate of General Anami, Marshal Sugiyama, and Colonel Hatanaka which fights on until the bitter end. So, how long can Japan fight on? What about Japanese forces in China, Indochina, Korea, Malaya, Indonesia, and the small islands in the Indian and Pacific Oceans still held by Japan? How long would it take for them to be mopped up? This could get very nasty. The large Japanese forces in China and other places in Asia might well fight to the bitter end if Japan is conquered so assorted hold-outs could last into 46 or possibly even later. Also their likely to massacre at least POWs and possibly civilians in general, both western and locals in areas resisting their rule. Virtually all the Japanese troops are likely to die, either because they refuse to surrender or because vengeful locals kill them when their units fall apart. Britain had forces in place for the liberation of Malaya which will go ahead but be pretty bloody. Not sure what will happen with Thailand or Indonesia. In the latter the Japanese could throw support behind local nationalists or continue to oppress them. If the dictatorship fights on then Japan will be invaded. Its difficult to know how long the Japanese population as a whole will fight on but between the actual conflict and the disruption of food supplies the death toll is likely to be in the millions. Possibly even in the tens of millions. Also fanatical resistance is likely to increase American hostility further and make them rely more on sheer firepower to blast away any opposition. There might be more nuclear attacks but by this time relatively little for the US to bomb.
The worst scenario might be if, which could be likely, the emperor is killed and the allies are blamed. This could further fuel fanatical resistance, although possibly some might be more willing to give up.
The death toll will be somewhat higher across much of occupied Asia as instead of a surrender Japanese forces will have to be defeated and probably killed to virtually the last man. The Soviets might end up occupying more of China and probably all of Korea as they will get there long before the Americans. In Japan its likely as I say to be huge and the social collapse mean that all bets on the future of Japan are off.
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Post by whiteshore on Jul 23, 2016 11:16:33 GMT
Are Taiwan, Hainan, and possibly Indochina and Indonesia the last large areas outside the Home Islands to be liberated from Japanese rule?
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Jul 23, 2016 11:22:54 GMT
Are Taiwan, Hainan, and possibly Indochina and Indonesia the last large areas outside the Home Islands to be liberated from Japanese rule? If i recall correctly that the Allies isolated and this is from Wikipedia, instead of capturing Rabaul during their advance towards the Japanese Home islands, the Allied forces decided to bypass it by establishing a ring of airfields and naval bases on the islands around it. Cut off from re-supply and under continual air attacks as part of Operation Cartwheel, the base became useless, so Rabaul is still in Japanese hand.
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Post by whiteshore on Jul 23, 2016 11:29:11 GMT
Could Hainan and Taiwan (and the smaller Indonesian islands) become larger Rabauls/Truks?
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Jul 23, 2016 11:32:54 GMT
Could Hainan and Taiwan (and the smaller Indonesian islands) become larger Rabauls/Truks? if the Allies focus on invading Japan i would think that might happen.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jul 23, 2016 23:13:01 GMT
Guys Put it this way the Americans had already bypassed Taiwan to take the Philippines instead. Although there were still Japanese forces operating on a number of the islands I believe. Their planning for landing in south Japan, Operation Olympic was set to start in Nov 45 and I'm pretty much certain they had no other major operations planned before then. The British were building up for their attack to liberate Malaya but how far beyond that, i.e. into Sumatra and possibly Java they could have gone and how quickly I don't know. If the war had continued until the end of 45 then I expect the Soviets would have had all of Manchuria and Korea and presumably South Sakhalin and quite possibly occupied a large chunk of N China. Whether the KMG could have made any significant gains in the south as the Japanese forces became increasingly isolated and short of supplies I don't know. However presuming the war continues and there are no significant local surrenders then at the start of 46 Japanese forces would hold large chunks of China, pretty much all of Taiwan, French Indo-China and most of what's now Indonesia along with other isolated areas and of course most of Japan. [As Operation Coronet, for the invasion of Honshu wasn't planned until spring 46. What state a lot of those regions would be in I rather dread to think. Similarly I'm not sure what the status of Thailand would be as no doubt they want to surrender quickly but how many Japanese forces, in what condition, were in their country at that time I don't know. If there's no formal surrender in Japan, or no recognised government to give such an order in the worst case Japanese forces in their colonies could fight on until overwhelmed. Which means that the allies could in theory be launching assorted invasions of such areas into 47 or possibly later. (
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Post by whiteshore on Jul 29, 2016 10:14:43 GMT
What areas outside the Home Islands would take the longest to take?
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Jul 29, 2016 10:40:38 GMT
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Post by whiteshore on Jul 29, 2016 11:16:11 GMT
Could Indochina be the last area of mainland Asia to be pried from Japanese control?
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jul 29, 2016 13:37:16 GMT
There could be a number of areas. China has the bulk of the Japanese army based in it [ignoring the home islands] and given the disorder between KMT, Communists and in the north the Soviets there could be forcing hangng around for quite a while. In FIC and the Dutch Indies there is the question of whether assorted independence forces in those regions would side with the Japanese or be seen as such by any allied forces operating against the Japanese. I think there could well be sizeable forces not totally crushed, although effectively isolated, well into 46 and possibly into 47.
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Post by whiteshore on Jul 30, 2016 0:53:28 GMT
So, stevep, Decisive Darkness' view of IJA forces in China collapsing in 2-3 months is unrealistic?
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jul 30, 2016 16:06:40 GMT
So, stevep, Decisive Darkness' view of IJA forces in China collapsing in 2-3 months is unrealistic? I don't know the story/TL so can't quiote on it I'm afraid. Could be way off but depending on how much support Chinese forces get from outside and how organised the Japanese are I could see it going on a long while in some locations. What I'm assuming is that the US would be mainly concerned with occupying and pacifying Japan itself and then possibly other areas such as Taiwan and possibly the Dutch Indies. Britain, who will be the only other western power with influence will be concentrating on its own colonies and interests, hence Malaya, Borneo, possibly helping out on the Dutch Indies to maintain order in the region and if/when resources are available possibly securing some non-Japanese controlled Thailand and helping the French out in FIC. While Britain had a long history of business links in China its most likely only to be concerned with liberating Hong Kong and rescuing as many British subjects as possible who have been Russia is the uncertain factor in that, albeit at the end of a long supply line, it does have substantial forces in the theatre that OTL crushed the main Japanese army in Manchuria and occupied it, adjacent areas of China and N Korea. In the event of prolonged Japanese resistance they could well push further, at least to the Yellow River and probably then setting up Biping as a Communist capital. However would they push that much further. With uncertain relations, coupled with Stalin's paranoia, in Europe as well as much disasisfaction with Soviet 'liberation' he won't want to reduce his forces in eastern Europe and how many forces would be needed to occupy large areas of China and hunt down Japanese reminants. Basically, assuming the Japanese army wholesale decides to fight to the bitter end and there are no significant surrenders then, once Japan is occupied, which is the prime American target, there is likely to be numerous areas in E Asia still under Japanese military control and limited numbers of western forces, and after such a long and costly war, probably a shortage of will to spend blood and money clearing out assorted locations. It will have to be done eventually but what order areas are cleared and how rapidly would be the issue and the last ones could see quite a delay.
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deltaforce
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Post by deltaforce on Mar 13, 2017 22:38:55 GMT
Japan's national infrastructure was crumbling and a major famine was looming. Japan was isolated by Navy submarines and USAAF aerial mining operations conducted by B-29 bombers, and USAAF operations over Japan were so effective that Curtis LeMay was on the verge of running out of targets. An official report, the United States Strategic Bombing Survey, reached a similar conclusion (see page 26), finding that:
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