Under the Iron Cross: What if Germany ruled the Philippines

Guys

The problem with this is that Tirpitz's entire plan was to concentrate the vast majority of German strength in the N Sea, which negated large forces being based overseas. The idea was that Britain, because of its world-wide commitments couldn't concentrate to a similar degree. I think even the Goeben, the only large German ship outside the so called High Seas Fleet, was in the Med as a diplomatic show of strength.

Your likely to see more crusiers deployed there but probably not battlecruisers and almost certainly not battleships. Apart from Tirpitz's aims ships that large need a lot more infrastructure to operate them so you would need a hell of a lot more spending in the Philippines simply to operate such ships there.

The other factor is that if Germany is presuming a war with Britain then anything outside Europe is vulnerable to loss or at least isolation. This would be further increased if/when the Anglo-Japanese alliance comes into existence. It would be impossible to mainatain a Pacific fleet strong enough to face the Japanese while trying anything against Britain while a German presence in the Philippines would be a threat to Japan's own supply lines.

As such while I can see a larger German Pacific squadron, especially if there was continued Filipino resistance, I doubt it would include anything larger than the OTL armoured cruisers. Anything larger is not only very expensive to base there but almost certain to be lost.

The other question would be if such a squadron operated freely come WWI, as OTL, ending up being sunk off the Falklands or the greater prestige and/or economic importance of the Philippines means they are tasked with defending the colony? Which could be very good for the allies as they would put up resistance but be stomped by the Japanese fleet rather than large forces being tied up hunting down raiders as OTL.

  If you mean basing a battle-fleet, or even a single squadron of battleships in Manlia then he would have to get rid of Tirpitz and that would really change history.  Also it would further alienate both Japan and Russia as each, but especially the former, would see it as a threat to their interests in the region.

Considering that the ultimatum to Spain only referred to Cuba and not the Philipines. The German Empire could have quickly bought the Philippines from Spain and then use the forces present to hoist the German flag above Manilla. Then inform Dewey to take his little toy boats elsewhere as he was now in sovereign German waters, and there are no Spanish forces (Spanish forces would have been interned by the Germans, in camps that would look a lot like the Spaniards own barracks ) or possessions here for him to attack.



Dewey had no authority to start a war against Germany nor did he have the forces on hand to defeat the Germans. So he would have had no choice but to withdraw.



This does mean that Cuba would almost certainly end up as US territory/state.



So yes there would be some hard feelings between the US and Germany, but it is not like there is skin in the game. Meaning nothing that can't be fixed through some diplomatic effort.



So it is now late 89:

• Spain is richer by some 60m dollars, but has lost its caribbean and pacific possessions
• USA has taken Cuba, Porto Rico, and Guam. I doubt that under these conditions they would relinquish Cuba in 92
• Germany is poorer by 60m dollars, but gained the Philippines and the islands around German New Guinea. Also they would have pulled of a major coupe and scored massively on the diplomatic scene.  

Some more thoughts came to me

PH would have been a much better match for Germany than the USA;
-USA could get almost all if not all raw materials and agricultural products from the CONUS. Where as Germany would have come in with a shopping list a mile long for every item that PH produced.
-US industry was fully engaged to supply just their domestic market, it did not want or require the PH customers. On the other hand German industry would be throwing parties for every diplomat involved in this deal, for them getting such a great internal market. Plus jumping off point for China and Japan.
-Germany would now have saturated its demands for colonies, releasing the internal pressures that later let to the Herero campaign. And also allowing them to be much more laid back on the diplomatic front. I mean if you have PH who cares about Marrocco.

If the Germans were really smart they would also offer Spain inclusion in the Zollverein. This would allow the Spanish business continued access to the PH, as well as access to the German internal market. And in return a second European market for Germany. It would also allow synergies in their Cameroon and Equatorial Guinea colonies.

If you can later convince the Spanish to join AH and Germany in a mutual defense treaty. You could hear the screams of anguish from Paris in Berlin, see how they like having even a potential two front war. They would make a much better partner than Italy, which is in natural conflict with AH. At this point any diplomat in German service would be paraded through the streets for months, they would not be able to buy their own beer/champagne.

Regarding the time it takes to sell the PH remember they have from May 1st (start of Dewey's blockade) to June 30th when the first US troops landed in the PH to get it done. With all the pieces already in place, mutual good will, and the thought of pulling one over on the US. I can see the deal being done and signed with in a week or two. Yes more detailed treaties would have to follow but the hand off of sovereignty would be done.

I agree with Lordroel