France Adopts a Defensive Strategy in 1914

Its something I've often wondered. French formal doctrine was still defensive until only a couple of years before. See en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plan_XVII Or rather, reading that defensive/offensive with plans to intervene in Belgium after an expected German invasion. Plan XVII was actually a reversal to earlier plans with the main weight against the common Franco-German frontier, despite the heavy fortifications there.

If France was following the previous plan then it would have intervened fairly heavily in Belgium once the Germans invaded. You wouldd probably have had encounter battles somewhere in south/central Belgium but hopefully with the French quickly moving to a tactical defensive, especially once they realised how much of the German army they were facing.

This would have had huge advantages for the French. While they still rely more heavily on older conscripts and reserves than the Germans [due to their lower population] and have other problems, like the notoriously visible uniform a defensive stance against a German army that is commited to frontal assaults would mean heavy losses but markedly heavier losses for the Germans. The famous French 75, which was too light for trench warfare but accurate and fast firing would have been lethal against packed troops advancing in the open.

I would suspect that the French might be forced back some way but suspect that far less of NE France would be occupied and probably much of northern Belgium would have stayed free of German occupation as well. French losses might be nearly as heavy as OTL because they would be facing the bulk of the German army markedly closer to their supply lines but I think German losses would be much heavier than OTL.

I doubt it would end the war quickly, although it might lead to a compromise peace with some German concessions. However think more likely the war would go on, albeit in a better position for the allies. The Ottomans might still join the central powers or possibly stay neutral, in which case the war ends earlier and probably the Romanovs survive. The war will still be very bloody but not as much as OTL.

This entire line of assumpts relies on the Germans still launching a massive attack through Belgium. If they were to decide on a defensive stance in the west and commit their main forces to supporting Austria against Russia things would be vastly different of course.

Kocking Russia out of the war when its on the defensive would be a lot more difficult than OTL. However it would pose a serious political problem for France as if Russia was being invaded it couldn't really sit on the defensive. In that case France might have to consider either an attack on Germany directly or even via Belgium itself.

If Germany goes east without attacking Belgium its uncertain whether and how quickly Britain would get involved. Because of concerns over German behaviour, especially at sea, Britain would feel favourable to the allies but a Liberal government especially may have problems getting a declaration of war. Especially if a few weeks or months in France breaches Belgium neutrality. Then just about anything could happen. Unlikely tat Britain would delcare war on France but if it found out about French plans I would expect a lot of pressure not to do it, although that might not be enough.

Or via Switzerland--however unlikely that might be.