futurist
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Post by futurist on Jun 19, 2016 2:35:51 GMT
Would Saddam Hussein have survived the Arab Spring if Al Gore would have won in 2000 and thus the U.S. wouldn't have overthrown him?
Any thoughts on this?
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spanishspy
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Post by spanishspy on Jun 19, 2016 4:53:31 GMT
I doubt that the Arab Spring would have happened without his deposition, but if something similar happens I can see Iraq become like Syria, with all sorts of ugly ethnic tensions boiling over.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jun 19, 2016 12:03:31 GMT
I doubt that the Arab Spring would have happened without his deposition, but if something similar happens I can see Iraq become like Syria, with all sorts of ugly ethnic tensions boiling over. Suspect this is the case. There might be a belief that thuggish dictators like Saadam and Assad could be overthrown, or at least pressurised into reform but without the example of Saadam being deposed I suspect it would be less powerful an idea. If it did happen then I fear Iraq would be rather like modern Syria. Or alternatively, because of the hostility between the two regimes weakness in one might have prompted intervention by the other and possibly a wider war between assorted factions in the region. |
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Jun 19, 2016 12:31:53 GMT
I doubt that the Arab Spring would have happened without his deposition, but if something similar happens I can see Iraq become like Syria, with all sorts of ugly ethnic tensions boiling over. Suspect this is the case. There might be a belief that thuggish dictators like Saadam and Assad could be overthrown, or at least pressurised into reform but without the example of Saadam being deposed I suspect it would be less powerful an idea. If it did happen then I fear Iraq would be rather like modern Syria. Or alternatively, because of the hostility between the two regimes weakness in one might have prompted intervention by the other and possibly a wider war between assorted factions in the region. Saddam Hussein is a man who will use force against his people as soon as they dare to think of demonstrating, he is know to wipe out towns because there where people who opposed him, i do not think he is going down with out a fight. |
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spanishspy
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Post by spanishspy on Jun 19, 2016 18:01:12 GMT
Suspect this is the case. There might be a belief that thuggish dictators like Saadam and Assad could be overthrown, or at least pressurised into reform but without the example of Saadam being deposed I suspect it would be less powerful an idea. If it did happen then I fear Iraq would be rather like modern Syria. Or alternatively, because of the hostility between the two regimes weakness in one might have prompted intervention by the other and possibly a wider war between assorted factions in the region. Saddam Hussein is a man who will use force against his people as soon as they dare to think of demonstrating, he is know to wipe out towns because there where people who opposed him, i do not think he is going down with out a fight. If that's the case we are seeing downright Nazi style wars of destruction merely to keep his own power. It'll make most of the wars of the 20th century after WWII look absolutely tame. |
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pericles
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Post by pericles on Jun 19, 2016 23:36:04 GMT
Maybe the US is forced to intervene in 2011 to prevent a humanitarian disaster as Saddam brutally suppresses the revolts.
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futurist
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Post by futurist on Jun 20, 2016 2:42:06 GMT
I doubt that the Arab Spring would have happened without his deposition, but if something similar happens I can see Iraq become like Syria, with all sorts of ugly ethnic tensions boiling over. Suspect this is the case. There might be a belief that thuggish dictators like Saadam and Assad could be overthrown, or at least pressurised into reform but without the example of Saadam being deposed I suspect it would be less powerful an idea. If it did happen then I fear Iraq would be rather like modern Syria. Or alternatively, because of the hostility between the two regimes weakness in one might have prompted intervention by the other and possibly a wider war between assorted factions in the region. Saddam Hussein was deposed by the U.S. rather than by his own people, though. |
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futurist
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Post by futurist on Jun 20, 2016 2:43:11 GMT
Suspect this is the case. There might be a belief that thuggish dictators like Saadam and Assad could be overthrown, or at least pressurised into reform but without the example of Saadam being deposed I suspect it would be less powerful an idea. If it did happen then I fear Iraq would be rather like modern Syria. Or alternatively, because of the hostility between the two regimes weakness in one might have prompted intervention by the other and possibly a wider war between assorted factions in the region. Saddam Hussein was deposed by the U.S. rather than by his own people, though. Does that mean no Western/NATO military intervention in Libya, though? |
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Jun 20, 2016 3:02:16 GMT
Saddam Hussein was deposed by the U.S. rather than by his own people, though. Does that mean no Western/NATO military intervention in Libya, though? Everything depends if there is even a Jasmine Revolution in Tunisia which stated in many ways the Arab Spring. |
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futurist
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Post by futurist on Jun 20, 2016 3:46:18 GMT
Does that mean no Western/NATO military intervention in Libya, though? Everything depends if there is even a Jasmine Revolution in Tunisia which stated in many ways the Arab Spring. I suspect that there would be, though. After all, Saddam was only toppled as a result of a U.S. invasion and Iraq was literally in a state of chaos for several years afterwards. Thus, I certainly don't think that Iraq was an appealing example to the Tunisian revolutionaries in 2010-2011 in real life. |
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spanishspy
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Post by spanishspy on Jun 21, 2016 12:54:49 GMT
Everything depends if there is even a Jasmine Revolution in Tunisia which stated in many ways the Arab Spring. I suspect that there would be, though. After all, Saddam was only toppled as a result of a U.S. invasion and Iraq was literally in a state of chaos for several years afterwards. Thus, I certainly don't think that Iraq was an appealing example to the Tunisian revolutionaries in 2010-2011 in real life. If he survives in power, it may deter the Tunisian revolution as that style of Arab nationalist authoritarianism would be seen as more enduring. |
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Jun 21, 2016 14:11:24 GMT
I suspect that there would be, though. After all, Saddam was only toppled as a result of a U.S. invasion and Iraq was literally in a state of chaos for several years afterwards. Thus, I certainly don't think that Iraq was an appealing example to the Tunisian revolutionaries in 2010-2011 in real life. If he survives in power, it may deter the Tunisian revolution as that style of Arab nationalist authoritarianism would be seen as more enduring. And strangely enough while there would be some dictators who all hate still in power, the world would have no ISIS, no refuge crises, No Syrian Civil War and thus while we hate them, a better word to live in. |
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spanishspy
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Post by spanishspy on Jun 21, 2016 16:35:54 GMT
If he survives in power, it may deter the Tunisian revolution as that style of Arab nationalist authoritarianism would be seen as more enduring. And strangely enough while there would be some dictators who all hate still in power, the world would have no ISIS, no refuge crises, No Syrian Civil War and thus while we hate them, a better word to live in. Maybe not in 2016, but it is very possible for these states to fall apart - see Libya, Yemen, etc. |
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Jun 21, 2016 16:51:37 GMT
And strangely enough while there would be some dictators who all hate still in power, the world would have no ISIS, no refuge crises, No Syrian Civil War and thus while we hate them, a better word to live in. Maybe not in 2016, but it is very possible for these states to fall apart - see Libya, Yemen, etc. Yemen was always a strange country, first separate countries then one country, it has never been a successes story. |
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spanishspy
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Post by spanishspy on Jun 21, 2016 16:53:37 GMT
Maybe not in 2016, but it is very possible for these states to fall apart - see Libya, Yemen, etc. Yemen was always a strange country, first separate countries then one country, it has never been a successes story. I've heard recent rumblings that some in the country want to split again. |
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