futurist
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Post by futurist on Jul 2, 2016 2:02:18 GMT
Yes, all of this certainly makes sense. However, this raises an interesting question--if someone at the Afghan court would have killed Amir Habibullah in either 1915 or 1916 rather than in 1919 (as was the case in real life), then would the new Afghan Amir (probably either Nasrullah or Amanullah, as was the case in 1919 in real life) actually have Afghanistan enter World War I on the side of the Central Powers (at the very least in order to maintain his credibility and to consolidate his rule and power)? Or would the new Afghan Amir have done a U-turn and remained neutral just like Habibullah before him? Also, for the record, based on the fact that Amanullah actually did invade British India in 1919 in real life, I am tempted to say that if either he or Nasrullah would have become the new Afghan Amir in 1915 or 1916 in this scenario, then the new Afghan Amir would have Afghanistan enter World War I on the side of the Central Powers. Anyway, any thoughts on this? 1. Possibly this would still happen if Habibullah died earlier, although they might still be deterred by the markedly worse situation. Also I note that Amanullah was the younger son and the older one was in charge of the army. Possibly he might inherit or at least challenge for the throne. Anyway, the Afghans lost in 1919 and their situation is markedly worse in 1915, because they have no hope of external support and have enemies to the west and north as well as the south. 1. OK. 2. OK. Also, though, how exactly would the peace terms have looked like for Afghanistan in this scenario both during Brest-Litovsk and after the end of World War I? Indeed, any thoughts on this?
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Jul 2, 2016 2:59:18 GMT
1. Possibly this would still happen if Habibullah died earlier, although they might still be deterred by the markedly worse situation. Also I note that Amanullah was the younger son and the older one was in charge of the army. Possibly he might inherit or at least challenge for the throne. Anyway, the Afghans lost in 1919 and their situation is markedly worse in 1915, because they have no hope of external support and have enemies to the west and north as well as the south. 1. OK. 2. OK. Also, though, how exactly would the peace terms have looked like for Afghanistan in this scenario both during Brest-Litovsk and after the end of World War I? Indeed, any thoughts on this? Maybe the Russian Civil war will spill over to Afghanistan and it will become a communist country either independent or part of the Soviet Union.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jul 2, 2016 13:22:32 GMT
1. Possibly this would still happen if Habibullah died earlier, although they might still be deterred by the markedly worse situation. Also I note that Amanullah was the younger son and the older one was in charge of the army. Possibly he might inherit or at least challenge for the throne. Anyway, the Afghans lost in 1919 and their situation is markedly worse in 1915, because they have no hope of external support and have enemies to the west and north as well as the south. 1. OK. 2. OK. Also, though, how exactly would the peace terms have looked like for Afghanistan in this scenario both during Brest-Litovsk and after the end of World War I? Indeed, any thoughts on this? I would suspect not much different from OTL. Britain would want a friendly Afghanistan, or at least one aligned towards it rather than Russia and it doesn't really want more territory to control. Especially land like Afghanistan that isn't exactly known as passive puppet. If this occurred in 1915 rather than 1919 then Britain is still overwhelmingly concentrated on the crisis in Europe. Also during the period before the Russian revolution, or more to the point Lenin's coup, Russia is an ally so any attempt to exert direct British control over the country that would cause tension. If somehow the struggle lasts until a coup in Russia things are more uncertain but its not until ~1920 that the Soviets are clearing winning over the whites in central Asia. By this time Britain is facing clear imperial overstretch and the post-war depression so I can't really see any reason Britain would seek anything other than a frriendly Afghanistan.
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futurist
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Post by futurist on Jul 4, 2016 7:55:49 GMT
1. OK. 2. OK. Also, though, how exactly would the peace terms have looked like for Afghanistan in this scenario both during Brest-Litovsk and after the end of World War I? Indeed, any thoughts on this? I would suspect not much different from OTL. Britain would want a friendly Afghanistan, or at least one aligned towards it rather than Russia and it doesn't really want more territory to control. Especially land like Afghanistan that isn't exactly known as passive puppet. If this occurred in 1915 rather than 1919 then Britain is still overwhelmingly concentrated on the crisis in Europe. Also during the period before the Russian revolution, or more to the point Lenin's coup, Russia is an ally so any attempt to exert direct British control over the country that would cause tension. If somehow the struggle lasts until a coup in Russia things are more uncertain but its not until ~1920 that the Soviets are clearing winning over the whites in central Asia. By this time Britain is facing clear imperial overstretch and the post-war depression so I can't really see any reason Britain would seek anything other than a frriendly Afghanistan. Two things: 1. Wouldn't Afghanistan try acquiring some Russian territory in the 1918 Treaty of Brest-Litovsk? 2. Could Britain successfully create anti-government ethnic rebellions in Afghanistan just like Britain did with the Arab Revolt in the Ottoman Empire during World War I in real life? Indeed, any thoughts on these two questions of mine?
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jul 4, 2016 16:36:30 GMT
I would suspect not much different from OTL. Britain would want a friendly Afghanistan, or at least one aligned towards it rather than Russia and it doesn't really want more territory to control. Especially land like Afghanistan that isn't exactly known as passive puppet. If this occurred in 1915 rather than 1919 then Britain is still overwhelmingly concentrated on the crisis in Europe. Also during the period before the Russian revolution, or more to the point Lenin's coup, Russia is an ally so any attempt to exert direct British control over the country that would cause tension. If somehow the struggle lasts until a coup in Russia things are more uncertain but its not until ~1920 that the Soviets are clearing winning over the whites in central Asia. By this time Britain is facing clear imperial overstretch and the post-war depression so I can't really see any reason Britain would seek anything other than a frriendly Afghanistan. Two things: 1. Wouldn't Afghanistan try acquiring some Russian territory in the 1918 Treaty of Brest-Litovsk? 2. Could Britain successfully create anti-government ethnic rebellions in Afghanistan just like Britain did with the Arab Revolt in the Ottoman Empire during World War I in real life? Indeed, any thoughts on these two questions of mine? 1) - That would require an Afghan attack that starts in say 1915-16 lasting until early 1918, which I suspect is unlikely. 2) Possibly with some of the non-Pathan/Pashtuns elements, although that could be risky with the fact there are such elements on the British side of the line that could react. More likely I hope would be to stirr up internal tribal rivaries and possibly set up a rival claimant to the throne to whoever is leading a war against Britain.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Jul 4, 2016 16:47:37 GMT
Could the British not stir up a tribe in Afghanistan and cause a civil war preventing Afghanistan from becoming a threat.
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futurist
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Post by futurist on Jul 5, 2016 4:37:54 GMT
Two things: 1. Wouldn't Afghanistan try acquiring some Russian territory in the 1918 Treaty of Brest-Litovsk? 2. Could Britain successfully create anti-government ethnic rebellions in Afghanistan just like Britain did with the Arab Revolt in the Ottoman Empire during World War I in real life? Indeed, any thoughts on these two questions of mine? 1) - That would require an Afghan attack that starts in say 1915-16 lasting until early 1918, which I suspect is unlikely. 2) Possibly with some of the non-Pathan/Pashtuns elements, although that could be risky with the fact there are such elements on the British side of the line that could react. 3) More likely I hope would be to stirr up internal tribal rivaries and possibly set up a rival claimant to the throne to whoever is leading a war against Britain. 1. Wouldn't Germany look out for its ally Afghanistan in the 1918 Brest-Litovsk treaty negotiations in any case, though? After all, it's not like paper concessions can't be turned into real concessions over time--heck, just take a look at the U.S. and the Louisiana and Alaska Territories (where large areas were only nominally under U.S. sovereignty for years, if not for decades)! 2. British India certainly didn't have very many Hazaras, Tajiks, Uzbeks, et cetera, though. Thus, I don't think that there would actually be much of a risk for Britain in creating ethnic separatist rebellions in Afghanistan during World War I. 3. The problem is, though, that most, if not all, of the Afghan royal family were pro-Central Powers. Thus, Britain might very well have to look outside of the Afghan royal family for a rival claimant to the Afghan throne--something that could certainly be extremely risky due to the lack of legitimacy of this rival claimant. Indeed, wouldn't it be both easier and simpler for Britain to try creating and sponsoring ethnic separatist rebellions in Afghanistan during World War I in this scenario?
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futurist
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Post by futurist on Jul 5, 2016 4:39:42 GMT
Could the British not stir up a tribe in Afghanistan and cause a civil war preventing Afghanistan from becoming a threat. Yes, they probably could. However, the key questions here are these--exactly which ethnic groups would Britain try stirring up in this scenario and what exactly is Britain going to offer these ethnic groups in the event of victory? Indeed, any thoughts on these two questions of mine?
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futurist
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Post by futurist on Jul 6, 2016 6:22:01 GMT
1. The Ottomans and Germans had been trying to woo Afghanistan once the war broke out. The Ottomans wanted to use the Afghans as a way to expand their holding within Persia, Central Asia, and the Russian Caucasus. The German diplomat sent to Afghanistan (Baron Max von Oppenheim) Said that the population was not one to be underestimated as they were a powerful and prideful people. They figured that if the Afghans managed to penetrate the Indus Valley that India itself would rise up in rebellion against the British rule. 2. The Russians were facing issues along it's border with Afghanistan already, mainly with the Kazakhs and a few other people's groups that rose up against being forced to join the army, their main population base was within the central Asian mountains and gave a large (if not weak) barrier to Russian operations against the nation. 3. To answer the question, you would be looking at roughly 140,000 men (50,000 being the regular army with a supplement of 90.000 tribesmen that would be mainly armed with spears, swords, old firearms etc.) They would be attacking into the Pashtun region, an area that was high in terms of national identity and (albiet unlikely) willing to rise up against the British. The Pashtun people created seven regiments (70,000 men) during the war and five were sent to the western front. One was sent to Mesopotamia and the other to Egypt. So let's say that another 30,000 actually decide to join the Afghan forces (the population of the area is rather small even today, I don't have the exact numbers though) so that's 170,000 men attacking along a 100 mile front. They would have no hope of getting really any supplies from the Central powers as Persia was under partial occupation by the British, and they had an intensive spy network already in place. The English could muster ~120,000 men in India if need be, Portugal had three regiments within their territories in India and depending on the time are part of the Entente, and if worst comes to worst, the Japanese would be more then likely willing to send aid as after 1914, the Japanese had little to no fighting left to do. 1. Oppenheim? Don't you mean Niedeymayer and Hentig? Also, though, was there actually large-scale resistance among Indians in response to being drafted and forced to fight for Britain? If not, why exactly do you think that an Afghan invasion of India would have caused the Indians to rebel against Britain? 2. Agreed. Plus, didn't Russia have few, if any, railroads which actually extended to the Russo-Afghan border? 3. Frankly, all of this appears to make sense. Also, though, out of curiosity--what exactly will Britain offer Portugal and/or Japan in exchange for having Portugal and/or Japan commit large numbers of their own troops in the fight against Afghanistan? Indeed, any thoughts on this?
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Jul 6, 2016 13:55:35 GMT
futurist please stop posting two or three post after each other, there is multi quote to quote more than one post if you want to.
How do you think Afghanistan is going to invade Russia, they might not have that good army that could do the job.
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Tipsyfish
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Post by Tipsyfish on Jul 8, 2016 7:18:05 GMT
1. The Ottomans and Germans had been trying to woo Afghanistan once the war broke out. The Ottomans wanted to use the Afghans as a way to expand their holding within Persia, Central Asia, and the Russian Caucasus. The German diplomat sent to Afghanistan (Baron Max von Oppenheim) Said that the population was not one to be underestimated as they were a powerful and prideful people. They figured that if the Afghans managed to penetrate the Indus Valley that India itself would rise up in rebellion against the British rule. 2. The Russians were facing issues along it's border with Afghanistan already, mainly with the Kazakhs and a few other people's groups that rose up against being forced to join the army, their main population base was within the central Asian mountains and gave a large (if not weak) barrier to Russian operations against the nation. 3. To answer the question, you would be looking at roughly 140,000 men (50,000 being the regular army with a supplement of 90.000 tribesmen that would be mainly armed with spears, swords, old firearms etc.) They would be attacking into the Pashtun region, an area that was high in terms of national identity and (albiet unlikely) willing to rise up against the British. The Pashtun people created seven regiments (70,000 men) during the war and five were sent to the western front. One was sent to Mesopotamia and the other to Egypt. So let's say that another 30,000 actually decide to join the Afghan forces (the population of the area is rather small even today, I don't have the exact numbers though) so that's 170,000 men attacking along a 100 mile front. They would have no hope of getting really any supplies from the Central powers as Persia was under partial occupation by the British, and they had an intensive spy network already in place. The English could muster ~120,000 men in India if need be, Portugal had three regiments within their territories in India and depending on the time are part of the Entente, and if worst comes to worst, the Japanese would be more then likely willing to send aid as after 1914, the Japanese had little to no fighting left to do. 1. Oppenheim? Don't you mean Niedeymayer and Hentig? Also, though, was there actually large-scale resistance among Indians in response to being drafted and forced to fight for Britain? If not, why exactly do you think that an Afghan invasion of India would have caused the Indians to rebel against Britain? 2. Agreed. Plus, didn't Russia have few, if any, railroads which actually extended to the Russo-Afghan border? 3. Frankly, all of this appears to make sense. Also, though, out of curiosity--what exactly will Britain offer Portugal and/or Japan in exchange for having Portugal and/or Japan commit large numbers of their own troops in the fight against Afghanistan? Indeed, any thoughts on this? 1.) Oppenheim was the first diplomat. And I didn't say that the Indians wo uld rise up in revolt. That's what the Germans and Ottomans thought would happen. 2.) They really only had trails and a few roads. The area wasn't heavily developed and wouldn't be until Stalins era. 3.) The British wouldn't have to offer the Portuguese or Japanese anything. They were already allies and Portugal had the troops within the territories such as Goa,Dadra, Daman and Dui. The monarch of Afghanistan understood it's role as a buffer state and would have remained as one. It was surrounded by enemies and had zero hope of getting help from them. They waged a small war against the British once they figured the public would want no more fighting. They simply didn't have the material to do such a thing and win. If they attack at any point during WW1 they will lose. If they wait like they did in OTL, they could get limited gains. Any sort of territorial plans that they would have would be thwarted by either the British, Russian red forces, Russian white forces, or the Chinese.
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