futurist
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Post by futurist on Jun 19, 2016 1:25:48 GMT
Let's say that Otto von Bismarck accidentally hits his head on something extremely hard in late 1870 and has a personality change. Afterwards, Bismarck decides to annex resource-rich Briey and Longwy in addition to annexing Alsace-Lorraine in 1871. In turn, the loss of revenue that results from the loss of resource-rich Briey and Longwy cripples France for decades to come. Meanwhile, with the threat of France permanently eliminated, Bismarck (with German Kaiser Wilhelm I's and the German Reichstag's extremely reluctant approval) goes to war against Russia in 1877 with the excuse that he wants to help the Ottoman Empire preserve the balance-of-power in the Middle East (and with the desire to acquire some Russian territory for Germany). Anyway, how successful would Germany have been in a war against Russia in 1877-1878 in this scenario? Frankly, I would say that Germany would have good odds of achieving at least a limited victory against Russia in this scenario considering that Germany's military leadership already has a lot of battlefield experience from fighting and winning Prussia's previous wars against Denmark, Austria, and France and considering that Russia will simultaneously have to fight against both Germany and the Ottoman Empire while Germany will only have to fight against Russia in this war. (For the record, Germany and Russia appear to have been about equally industrialized in 1877-1878 if one looks at their total industrialization: www.beaconschool.org/~bfaithfu/greatdivergencecharts.pdf .)However, I would certainly like to hear what other, more knowledgeable people have to say about this scenario of mine.  Indeed, any thoughts on this scenario of mine? |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jun 19, 2016 14:11:37 GMT
I think Germany would be overwhelmingly successful in a limited war in such a case. Russia struggled to defeat Turkey, in part admittedly because of the restrictions on the Russians after the Crimean war with naval forces in the Black Sea being banned. They could definitely overrun most of Russian Poland, and probably most of the Baltic within a few months. [Although I think the German fleet was pretty tiny at this point so advancing through the Baltic might be more difficult. Even if as would be quite likely, Austria sided with them. However I see two problems.
a) If they win such a short war they can take Poland and parts of the Baltics. However the former would mean a large number of non-Germans who are likely to be difficult subjects, especially as memories of Russia rule fades. [This might not be too bad if the Germans are willing to allow Poland a fair degree of self-rule but since that would influence provinces such as Posen and to a degree West Prussia I don't know if this would be the case].
This would also mean that just about everybody, with the possible exception of Austria, would be extremely worried about German aims and capabilities. France, Russia and Britain at the very least would be looking for security against it becoming too dominant and while neither France or Russia would be in a position to contest German domination in Europe at this point [and Britain wouldn't have the army to do so] things are likely to change.
b) If the Russians refuse to make peace or the Germans want draconian terms then there is also doubt. As well as the concerns of the other powers I'm not sure if the German army at the time would be able to make deep penetrations into the Russia heartlands. In some ways it would face an even bigger problem than Napoleon in 1812 as armies need more supplies and artillery and other equipment is generally bulkier. Also Russia has vastly more populated than Germany and the Russian population, once you get past the border areas, are likely to deeply resent German troops, especially if the latter is foraging for supplies or after the experiences in 1871 is behaving like it did in Belgium and France in 1914 with harsh treatment of any perceived opposition.
I'm not saying Russia would win but Germany could find itself in a war it couldn't win itself and especially if there are some costly disasters it might prompt either internal unrest in Germany or one or more other powers to intervene against Germany.
The best bet I think, in this scenario, would be for Germany to win quickly then offer fairly moderate terms to Russia. Say the creation of a Polish puppet state that is loosely allied to Germany and forcing Russia to abide by earlier limitations in the Balkans. It would win support of Turkey, although probably alienating a lot of the Balkan Slavs and would definitely alienate Russia, making some sort of Franco-Russian alliance virtually inevitable.
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futurist
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Post by futurist on Jun 20, 2016 2:18:49 GMT
I think Germany would be overwhelmingly successful in a limited war in such a case. Russia struggled to defeat Turkey, in part admittedly because of the restrictions on the Russians after the Crimean war with naval forces in the Black Sea being banned. They could definitely overrun most of Russian Poland, and probably most of the Baltic within a few months. [Although I think the German fleet was pretty tiny at this point so advancing through the Baltic might be more difficult. Even if as would be quite likely, Austria sided with them. However I see two problems. a) If they win such a short war they can take Poland and parts of the Baltics. However the former would mean a large number of non-Germans who are likely to be difficult subjects, especially as memories of Russia rule fades. [This might not be too bad if the Germans are willing to allow Poland a fair degree of self-rule but since that would influence provinces such as Posen and to a degree West Prussia I don't know if this would be the case]. This would also mean that just about everybody, with the possible exception of Austria, would be extremely worried about German aims and capabilities. France, Russia and Britain at the very least would be looking for security against it becoming too dominant and while neither France or Russia would be in a position to contest German domination in Europe at this point [and Britain wouldn't have the army to do so] things are likely to change. b) If the Russians refuse to make peace or the Germans want draconian terms then there is also doubt. As well as the concerns of the other powers I'm not sure if the German army at the time would be able to make deep penetrations into the Russia heartlands. In some ways it would face an even bigger problem than Napoleon in 1812 as armies need more supplies and artillery and other equipment is generally bulkier. Also Russia has vastly more populated than Germany and the Russian population, once you get past the border areas, are likely to deeply resent German troops, especially if the latter is foraging for supplies or after the experiences in 1871 is behaving like it did in Belgium and France in 1914 with harsh treatment of any perceived opposition. I'm not saying Russia would win but Germany could find itself in a war it couldn't win itself and especially if there are some costly disasters it might prompt either internal unrest in Germany or one or more other powers to intervene against Germany. The best bet I think, in this scenario, would be for Germany to win quickly then offer fairly moderate terms to Russia. Say the creation of a Polish puppet state that is loosely allied to Germany and forcing Russia to abide by earlier limitations in the Balkans. It would win support of Turkey, although probably alienating a lot of the Balkan Slavs and would definitely alienate Russia, making some sort of Franco-Russian alliance virtually inevitable. In regards to Poland, how about giving Poland large amounts of self-rule, but only after Germany creates and annexes a Polish Border Strip and expels the Polish and Jewish population of this strip? After all, that way, the Poles in Poland would probably find it harder to make contact with and thus to influence the Poles in Germany. Also, in regards to fear of German domination, Yes, I agree with you in regards to this. However, what about if Germany decides to act like a satisfied power and argues that it has no additional territorial ambitions in Europe for all eternity, though? In addition to this, out of curiosity--would Germany realistically be able to achieve this in a peace treaty with Russia: The creation of a German puppet state in Poland, the creation of a German puppet state in Lithuania, an outright German annexation of both Latvia and Estonia, the transfer of Bessarabia and Bukovina to Romania (if Romania actually wants this, that is), and the creation of a German puppet state in the parts of Ukraine which are located west of Kiev? For the record, the Ukrainian puppet state idea can be removed from this list if Russia agrees to the rest of Germany's demands here. Also, though, the demand for Latvia and Estonia (as well as Poland and Lithuania, for security reasons) is non-negotiable in this scenario due to the fact that Bismarck (with his changed personality as a result of his previous heard injury) wants relatively sparsely populated Lebensraum (living space) for Germans to settle in (as in, to provide Germans with an alternative to immigrating to countries such as the U.S., where Germans can easily get a lot of free land). In addition to this, in regards to a Franco-Russian alliance, Germany probably shouldn't have that much to worry about for at least several decades. After all, due to Germany's extremely rapid post-1871 industrialization and due to France's previous loss of iron ore-rich Briey and Longwy to Germany, Germany is unlikely to have much problems in fighting a simultaneous two-front war with France and Russia for at least several decades ( if France and Russia are actually stupid enough to start a new war with Germany in the next 50 years after this 1877-1878 war, that is). |
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futurist
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Post by futurist on Jun 20, 2016 2:22:37 GMT
Also, for the record, Germany certainly has a historical claim to both Latvia and Estonia since both of these areas were previously controlled by the ethnically German Teutonic Knights and since the nobility in both of these areas was largely, if not mostly, composed of ethnic Germans well into the late 19th century:  |
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Post by stevep on Jun 20, 2016 21:37:10 GMT
futurist I would say that Germany could do what you say, although after such extensive gains I'm uncertain many neighbours would believe them about having no additional territorial ambitions in Europe.  Assuming in this that Germany drops the demand about the western Ukraine. Wasn't thinking of France and Russia seeking to defeat Germany themselves. More a defensive alliance as both have been defeated and seen serious losses to Germany and fear future attacks. |
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Post by futurist on Jun 22, 2016 7:34:03 GMT
futurist 1. I would say that Germany could do what you say, although after such extensive gains I'm uncertain many neighbours would believe them about having no additional territorial ambitions in Europe. Assuming in this that Germany drops the demand about the western Ukraine. 2. Wasn't thinking of France and Russia seeking to defeat Germany themselves. More a defensive alliance as both have been defeated and seen serious losses to Germany and fear future attacks. 1. Wait--are you saying that Germany's neighbors wouldn't believe Germany about having no additional territorial ambitions in Europe even if Germany drops its demand for western Ukraine? Indeed, I just want to clarify this part. 2. OK. Indeed, that certainly makes sense. |
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Post by stevep on Jun 22, 2016 16:02:54 GMT
futurist 1. I would say that Germany could do what you say, although after such extensive gains I'm uncertain many neighbours would believe them about having no additional territorial ambitions in Europe. Assuming in this that Germany drops the demand about the western Ukraine. 2. Wasn't thinking of France and Russia seeking to defeat Germany themselves. More a defensive alliance as both have been defeated and seen serious losses to Germany and fear future attacks. 1. Wait--are you saying that Germany's neighbors wouldn't believe Germany about having no additional territorial ambitions in Europe even if Germany drops its demand for western Ukraine? Indeed, I just want to clarify this part. 2. OK. Indeed, that certainly makes sense. 1) Well would you? Germany has launched a major attack on Russia without a clear reason other than major territorial gains, without even the diplomatic manouvering that preceded Bismarck's earlier wars and there's no significant German populations in the sizeable areas their bringing under their control. In succession Germany has attacked and defeated Austria, France and Russia and no one's likely to take Germany's word for it that they won't do it again. |
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Post by futurist on Jun 22, 2016 23:18:09 GMT
1. Wait--are you saying that Germany's neighbors wouldn't believe Germany about having no additional territorial ambitions in Europe even if Germany drops its demand for western Ukraine? Indeed, I just want to clarify this part. 2. OK. Indeed, that certainly makes sense. 1) Well would you? Germany has launched a major attack on Russia without a clear reason other than major territorial gains, without even the diplomatic manouvering that preceded Bismarck's earlier wars and there's no significant German populations in the sizeable areas their bringing under their control. In succession Germany has attacked and defeated Austria, France and Russia and no one's likely to take Germany's word for it that they won't do it again. Would I? No, probably not. However, if Germany's neighbors are still going to distrust it, then shouldn't Germany maximize its territorial gains and demand western Ukraine from Russia as well? Also, for the record, you forgot to mention Prussia's defeat of Denmark in a war in the early 1860s. |
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Post by stevep on Jun 23, 2016 20:06:31 GMT
1) Well would you? Germany has launched a major attack on Russia without a clear reason other than major territorial gains, without even the diplomatic manouvering that preceded Bismarck's earlier wars and there's no significant German populations in the sizeable areas their bringing under their control. In succession Germany has attacked and defeated Austria, France and Russia and no one's likely to take Germany's word for it that they won't do it again. Would I? No, probably not. However, if Germany's neighbors are still going to distrust it, then shouldn't Germany maximize its territorial gains and demand western Ukraine from Russia as well? Also, for the record, you forgot to mention Prussia's defeat of Denmark in a war in the early 1860s. a) Which would make sure that its mistrusted and also give it an unhappy subject state a good distance from its home base with relatively poor communications. b) True although that was a combined German assault, with Austria and Prussia together, although I suspect that Prussia was probably distinctly more successful. |
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Post by futurist on Jul 2, 2016 2:00:37 GMT
Would I? No, probably not. However, if Germany's neighbors are still going to distrust it, then shouldn't Germany maximize its territorial gains and demand western Ukraine from Russia as well? Also, for the record, you forgot to mention Prussia's defeat of Denmark in a war in the early 1860s. a) Which would make sure that its mistrusted and also give it an unhappy subject state a good distance from its home base with relatively poor communications. b) True although that was a combined German assault, with Austria and Prussia together, although I suspect that Prussia was probably distinctly more successful. A. OK. Thus, aiming only for Poland and all of the Baltic states (and maybe Bessarabia for Romania as well, if Romania wants it) is the best move for Germany in this war, correct? B. Yes; correct! In addition to this, though, here are some additional questions for you, Steve: 1. Would France have pursued a rapprochement with Britain earlier in this scenario due to its and Britain's weaker position relative to Germany in comparison to real life (due to France's loss of iron ore-rich Briey and Longwy to Germany back in 1871)? If so, could France have relied on Britain's Navy to protect its own commercial interests abroad--especially in regards to securing its acquisition of iron ore and other resources from abroad? 2. Would Russia have launched reforms (such as an end to its anti-Semitic laws and Pale of Settlement) earlier in this scenario in order to attract more investors (including some, if not many, wealthy Jews) from Britain and/or from the U.S.? 3. Would Germany have invested more in the naval arms race with Britain in this scenario (due to Germany having more funds as a result of its annexation of iron ore-rich Briey and Longwy back in 1871)? 4. Would Germany have been able to turn both Latvia and Estonia into German-majority territories (population-wise) as a result of successful ethnic German colonization and settlement in these two territories? 5. Like France, would Germany also aim to adopt a defensive strategy in a future general European war? 6. Is a general European war likely to occur in the 1930s, 1940s, or 1950s in this scenario (assuming that nuclear weapons aren't successfully developed by that point in time in this scenario, that is)? If so, then how exactly is such a war likely to turn out? Indeed, any thoughts on all of these questions of mine, Steve? |
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Post by stevep on Jul 2, 2016 14:51:57 GMT
a) Which would make sure that its mistrusted and also give it an unhappy subject state a good distance from its home base with relatively poor communications. b) True although that was a combined German assault, with Austria and Prussia together, although I suspect that Prussia was probably distinctly more successful. A. OK. Thus, aiming only for Poland and all of the Baltic states (and maybe Bessarabia for Romania as well, if Romania wants it) is the best move for Germany in this war, correct? B. Yes; correct! In addition to this, though, here are some additional questions for you, Steve: 1. Would France have pursued a rapprochement with Britain earlier in this scenario due to its and Britain's weaker position relative to Germany in comparison to real life (due to France's loss of iron ore-rich Briey and Longwy to Germany back in 1871)? If so, could France have relied on Britain's Navy to protect its own commercial interests abroad--especially in regards to securing its acquisition of iron ore and other resources from abroad? It might try and Britain might respond, depending on how threatening this greater Germany would be seen as. Especially if Bismarck was a more aggressive politician as you seem to be suggesting. It could be that Britain would seek to stay in Splendid Isolationism for a while. It might do as that would be a good move for it but I suspect it would be unlikely. Conservatism and anti-Semitism is deeply embedded in Russia and such a defeat by Germany might only deepen this. Especially since Jews get better treatment in Germany so it could make the Russian regime even worse. I think this might happen a little earlier than OTL but probably still not until the late 1890's at earliest as Germany still needs to develop into an industrial giant and you probably also need to get Wilhelm II in power to do something that rash. It might provided it could either convert enough of the locals to German speaking [which might be the best way] and/or presuade enough Germans to settle there. Don't forget Germany exported a lot of people, especially to N America so there are alternatives that may seem more attractive. However no doubt it would be able to get some there. That would depend on a lot of circumstances we can only guess at. Would suspect that, because short aggressive wars were so successful and because of its power than Germany would probably look for short, dramatic victories by quick offensives. This was the way virtually all the great powers expected war between major powers to go and I can't really see anything to change that. The only expections might be Britain, because of its naval superiority and island location and possibly Russia because, deciding it can't match Germany in modern industrial warfare it plans on a deep defensive war trying to lure German forces deep into the interior. I suspect that some sort of general war is likely to occur at some point. Both because there has been no bloody slaughter like OTL 1914-18 and because Germany has dominance in central Europe but probably not overwhelming. As such as France and Russia recover from their defeat, Poland possibly reacts to German rule and a possibly more aggressive Germany [because it become overconfident] prompts an alliance against it. |
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Post by futurist on Aug 3, 2016 4:28:28 GMT
A. OK. Thus, aiming only for Poland and all of the Baltic states (and maybe Bessarabia for Romania as well, if Romania wants it) is the best move for Germany in this war, correct? B. Yes; correct! In addition to this, though, here are some additional questions for you, Steve: 1. Would France have pursued a rapprochement with Britain earlier in this scenario due to its and Britain's weaker position relative to Germany in comparison to real life (due to France's loss of iron ore-rich Briey and Longwy to Germany back in 1871)? If so, could France have relied on Britain's Navy to protect its own commercial interests abroad--especially in regards to securing its acquisition of iron ore and other resources from abroad? It might try and Britain might respond, depending on how threatening this greater Germany would be seen as. Especially if Bismarck was a more aggressive politician as you seem to be suggesting. It could be that Britain would seek to stay in Splendid Isolationism for a while. It might do as that would be a good move for it but I suspect it would be unlikely. Conservatism and anti-Semitism is deeply embedded in Russia and such a defeat by Germany might only deepen this. Especially since Jews get better treatment in Germany so it could make the Russian regime even worse. I think this might happen a little earlier than OTL but probably still not until the late 1890's at earliest as Germany still needs to develop into an industrial giant and you probably also need to get Wilhelm II in power to do something that rash. It might provided it could either convert enough of the locals to German speaking [which might be the best way] and/or presuade enough Germans to settle there. Don't forget Germany exported a lot of people, especially to N America so there are alternatives that may seem more attractive. However no doubt it would be able to get some there. That would depend on a lot of circumstances we can only guess at. Would suspect that, because short aggressive wars were so successful and because of its power than Germany would probably look for short, dramatic victories by quick offensives. This was the way virtually all the great powers expected war between major powers to go and I can't really see anything to change that. The only expections might be Britain, because of its naval superiority and island location and possibly Russia because, deciding it can't match Germany in modern industrial warfare it plans on a deep defensive war trying to lure German forces deep into the interior. I suspect that some sort of general war is likely to occur at some point. Both because there has been no bloody slaughter like OTL 1914-18 and because Germany has dominance in central Europe but probably not overwhelming. As such as France and Russia recover from their defeat, Poland possibly reacts to German rule and a possibly more aggressive Germany [because it become overconfident] prompts an alliance against it. 1. OK. 2. That will probably make it harder for Russia to acquire loans in order to pursue large-scale industrialization, though. 3. OK. 4. OK. 5. Didn't Germany adopt the Schlieffen Plan in large part because it was unwilling to be put in a situation where a status quo ante bellum peace deal was the best peace deal that it could get, though? If so, then wouldn't a status quo ante bellium peace deal look much more appealing to Germany in its scenario due to Germany's control of iron ore-rich Briey and Longwy and due to Germany's control of both Poland and the Baltic states? 6. OK. Also, though, wouldn't it be smart for Germany (back in 1878) to give Poland large amounts of Russian territory in the East (indeed, think of Poland's 1938 eastern borders in real life) in order to please Poland and in order to make Poland more dependent on Germany for its protection and security against the (eventual) threat of a revanchist Russia? |
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Assuming in this that Germany drops the demand about the western Ukraine.