Germany Acquires Briey and Longwy in 1871

What if Germany would have acquired the iron ore-rich Briey-Longwy area from France in 1871?

Any thoughts on this?

Also, as for my own thoughts on this, France is certainly going to be much more crippled economically in this scenario. In turn, Russia is certainly going to be unable to get large-scale loans from France in this scenario since France simply isn't going to have that kind of money to spare in this scenario. Thus, we might see an earlier rapprochement between Britain and Russia in this scenario as well as attempts by Russia to acquire large-scale loans from Britain and from the U.S. (which might require Russia to get rid of its anti-Semitic laws and whatnot) in this scenario. Also, I suspect that World War I will be either delayed or completely prevented in this scenario. After all, even with decades of large-scale Britain and American investment, it will certainly take Russia a while to catch up to Germany's level of industrial development and military development.

  1. I think Anglo-Russia relations would depend on how threatening this enlarged Germany was.  Traditionally Germany, at least under Bismarck, was friendly to Russia and Russia and Britain had a number of serious tensions so both would have to be really concerned to sort out their differences.


2. Also with Britain's style of government at the time, deeply anti-government involvement in so many activities, it would be more difficult to organise that level of loans and economic support for Russia.


3. Furthermore supporting Russia would mean losing Turkey


4. and Japan and the former especially would mean Russia would be even more difficult to support from Britain.

5. France would lack an important source of iron ore, although I think its high phosphorus levels meant it wasn't useful until after 1871.  However while it would have lost some more territory and population I'm not sure whether it would have greatly restricted its economic and military recovery.  Much of the world is being opened up to European markets so I would suspect they could have imported ore from other areas, albeit at some cost.

6. It would be even more deeply resentful of Germany but whether it would have had the same confidence it could overturn the 1870-71 defeat I'm not sure.

  futurist

  Answering some points:
3) Britain was loosely allied with Russia before war broke out and was hoping to keep Turkey friendly despite that when it came to war with Germany.  Also it took French mediation, after their accord with Britain, to help settle differences between Russia and Britain and a totally neutralised France might not be in a position to do this in TTL.

4)  They fought on the same side because Britain was allied with Japan [and the latter's only significant ally] prior to the reproachment with Russia.  Plus by the time that this occurs Japan has settled its own disagreement with Russia in the war between the two and Russia didn't have the resources to consider taking on both Germany and Japan, even if the latter hadn't been a British ally.  TTL I think your suggesting Britain and Russia ally prior to Japan becoming prominent in the east.  In this circumstance if Russia and Japan clash as OTL the latter is unlikely to have British support and it might well even support Russia to some degree.  Thus, unless Germany is as racist as under Wilhelm II its likely that Japan would approach Germany as an ally and with an Anglo-Russian alliance is likely to be accepted.

6)  Confidence to be able to consider winning a war against Germany, even with allies, yes will be less and later.  However determination to defend what's left of their homeland is likely to be at least as high and France will fight bitterly against any German attack.  Possibly markedly more successful than OTL as Germany might not bother a flank attack through Belgium because it feels more confident at overwhelming France with a frontal assault and [even more likely] the French are not going to have the insane Plan 17 with frontal assaults on fortifications.  In their dug in preparing for a desperate defence they could make Germany make a much higher cost for any such attack and gaining markedly less land.

7) Also France might be less involved in colonial expansion than OTL, seeking to preserve more manpower and other resources to defend against a possible German attack.  This could mean they have a faster economic and military recovery than your expecting and also come to terms with Britain earlier as the German threat and the rivalry with Britain over colonies are less.

futurist

3) Ofhand no. Afraid I'm away from most of my books at the moment and not sure if there are clear references. What I've heard is that France, being friendly with both powers was desperate to avoid the two clashing and it having to choose between them as it wanted both to secure its position against Germany. The clash in the North Sea, see en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dogger_Bank_incident, which could have lead to war between Britain and Russia caused a serious panic, especially since France, having just resolved a lot of issues with Britain might have been forced into war with Britain in support of its Russian allies.

3B. It might be more determined to take colonies, for prestige and power, but might not have the resources to do this successfully. Plus its likely to lead to more clashes, especially with Britain. However with an even greater threat perceived from Germany I think concentration on defending the homeland and developing its existing colonies would make more sense. [Although of course people and politicians don't always behave rationally. ]