What if Kuwait, Bosnia, and Kosovo are teleported to oceanic locations on June 1, 1990?
Nov 23, 2024 17:06:32 GMT
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Post by raharris1973 on Nov 23, 2024 17:06:32 GMT
What if Kuwait, Bosnia, and Kosovo are teleported to oceanic locations on June 1, 1990?
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www.flickr.com/photos/22187058@N03/54159854250/in/photostream/lightbox/
What does this do to the international affairs and geopolitics of the 1990s?
In case you are not seeing it clearly, Kuwait is teleported southeast, to the Indian Ocean, just outside the Straits of Hormuz & Persian Gulf, with the original location replaced by Indian Ocean waters and sea floor.
Bosnia-Hercegovina, then still a republic of Yugoslavia, and Kosovo, a special autonomous region of the Serbian republic of Yugoslavia, are teleported to the Atlantic, northwest of Iberia, and their original locations in Yugoslavia are replaced with Atlantic Ocean saltwater and sea floor.
What happens to the Persian Gulf War/Desert Shield/Desert Storm of 1990-1991, or the Yugoslav Succession Wars of 1991-1999, specifically?
[Clarification - because the original prose seemed to generate much confusion and misconception] With the desert sands in the Iraq-Kuwait border region leading to Kuwait's oil fields on the mainland Arabian peninsula, and the islands of Bubiyan and Warba, and Kuwait City,turning into mere beach dunes up to to the Iraqi side of the border, and surprisingly abruptly leading right to Persian Gulf waters right at the line of the Kuwait, border, instead of the continued desert known and expected from time immemorial, is Saddam Hussein going to take that as a divine sign the Kuwait, and the chance at redressing his country's economic and financial shortfalls through a quick grab of oil producing land, is gone.
Or, does he decide he just needs to shift to bigger, but actually richer, target, Saudi Arabia, despite the greater audacity that requires and danger of international reaction?
If he takes the latter course, it is riskier for him with outside powers, including the USA pretty much compelled to act. But it is riskier, costlier, and more difficult for the United States and other intervening powers because they have to deploy into a hot combat zone against a moving, fighting, enemy, actively opposing they deployment into eastern Saudi Arabia, instead of having the luxury of deploying to Saudi Arabia for months undisturbed, forming a 'shield' while Iraq fortifies Kuwait and hopes international pressures will remain political and economic only.
In Yugoslavia, the teleported Bosnian Republic and Kosovo region would still be formally part of Yugoslavia, neither had separated from the federation yet. However, the sheer distance from mainland Yugoslavia and impracticality of exercising iron-fisted authority is going to make a difference. In the island of Bosnia-Hercegovina, the probably somewhat disproportionately Serb Yugoslav National Army units will be the strongest arm force, but the militia units of the republic will be generally representative of the fairly even three-way split of the republic between Muslim Bosnians, Orthodox Serbs, and Catholic Croats. Neither Serbs nor Croats will have the tempting prospect of unifying districts they dominate with the respective Serbian or Croatian republics of the Yugoslav federation. The relative balance of power, and geographic isolation just might encourage compromise or more circumspect forms of political competition rather than ethnic group bids for winner take all.
On Kosovo island, the Milosevic government of the Serb republic had recently stripped the Albanian majority of its autonomy, but now, geography isolated from Serbia, the Serbian minority's rule over the region would be unsustainable, and the Serbs would yield power to the majority peacefully, or have it yanked from them violently.
Like this:
www.flickr.com/photos/22187058@N03/54159854250/in/photostream/lightbox/
What does this do to the international affairs and geopolitics of the 1990s?
In case you are not seeing it clearly, Kuwait is teleported southeast, to the Indian Ocean, just outside the Straits of Hormuz & Persian Gulf, with the original location replaced by Indian Ocean waters and sea floor.
Bosnia-Hercegovina, then still a republic of Yugoslavia, and Kosovo, a special autonomous region of the Serbian republic of Yugoslavia, are teleported to the Atlantic, northwest of Iberia, and their original locations in Yugoslavia are replaced with Atlantic Ocean saltwater and sea floor.
What happens to the Persian Gulf War/Desert Shield/Desert Storm of 1990-1991, or the Yugoslav Succession Wars of 1991-1999, specifically?
[Clarification - because the original prose seemed to generate much confusion and misconception] With the desert sands in the Iraq-Kuwait border region leading to Kuwait's oil fields on the mainland Arabian peninsula, and the islands of Bubiyan and Warba, and Kuwait City,turning into mere beach dunes up to to the Iraqi side of the border, and surprisingly abruptly leading right to Persian Gulf waters right at the line of the Kuwait, border, instead of the continued desert known and expected from time immemorial, is Saddam Hussein going to take that as a divine sign the Kuwait, and the chance at redressing his country's economic and financial shortfalls through a quick grab of oil producing land, is gone.
Or, does he decide he just needs to shift to bigger, but actually richer, target, Saudi Arabia, despite the greater audacity that requires and danger of international reaction?
If he takes the latter course, it is riskier for him with outside powers, including the USA pretty much compelled to act. But it is riskier, costlier, and more difficult for the United States and other intervening powers because they have to deploy into a hot combat zone against a moving, fighting, enemy, actively opposing they deployment into eastern Saudi Arabia, instead of having the luxury of deploying to Saudi Arabia for months undisturbed, forming a 'shield' while Iraq fortifies Kuwait and hopes international pressures will remain political and economic only.
In Yugoslavia, the teleported Bosnian Republic and Kosovo region would still be formally part of Yugoslavia, neither had separated from the federation yet. However, the sheer distance from mainland Yugoslavia and impracticality of exercising iron-fisted authority is going to make a difference. In the island of Bosnia-Hercegovina, the probably somewhat disproportionately Serb Yugoslav National Army units will be the strongest arm force, but the militia units of the republic will be generally representative of the fairly even three-way split of the republic between Muslim Bosnians, Orthodox Serbs, and Catholic Croats. Neither Serbs nor Croats will have the tempting prospect of unifying districts they dominate with the respective Serbian or Croatian republics of the Yugoslav federation. The relative balance of power, and geographic isolation just might encourage compromise or more circumspect forms of political competition rather than ethnic group bids for winner take all.
On Kosovo island, the Milosevic government of the Serb republic had recently stripped the Albanian majority of its autonomy, but now, geography isolated from Serbia, the Serbian minority's rule over the region would be unsustainable, and the Serbs would yield power to the majority peacefully, or have it yanked from them violently.
