Germany Goes East first in 1914, British politics aspects only discussion - continuation
Dec 1, 2024 20:07:17 GMT
Post by stevep on Dec 1, 2024 20:07:17 GMT
... so ... finally ... about the questions of the starting thread:
A) How long could a Liberal Asquith Cabinet refraining from declaring war in 1914 for many weeks while the CP attack east and south and the French attack east, remain in power without being forced to face an election?
IMO as long as it takes for the 'regular' election (due in late 1915 maybe by 'technicalities' shifted to early 1916) to come up ... or .. the germans do something as stupid as IOTL with letting the Zimmermann telegram run over unsecure/by the british secretly tapped lines (though ... how should they have known that the brits tap their 'friend' the US of A).
second part:
second part:
IMO there won't be any 'forced' election. ... also ... 'forced' by whom?
A1) Would Grey resign over Britain remaining a non-belligerent?
He might considered it and would 'threaten' with as IOTL possibly 'reinforce' such a threat at the 2nd cabinet meeting of 2nd August but ... in the end would stay due to :
- being convinced by Asquith - seeing where from 'the wind blows' much stronger ITTL - to stay for the sake of the goverment as well as the party
- being convinced by - probably Asquith as well - that staying in the goverment would give him - Grey - still much more a lever to 'help' his politics and 'friends' aka the Entente with France (in the first instance as Russia comes onla as a further behing 2nd only)
- being pursuaded by the vast majority of the cabinet that his - Greys - conditions ARE actually met:
- no unconditional pledge for neutrality with two - antigerman minded if someone insist on this 'leaning' - tripwires set for a even possible military british intervention.
A2) Who else would resign from the Cabinet over Britain remaining a non-belligerent, and would that number be sufficient to force a new election?
B) How soon (measured in days) could an election be held, and who would win the majority, Conservative, Liberal, or a forced Coalition?
Though I'm far from an expert ... weeks to a month as the minimum from the point of time Asquith decides to end the liberal goverment (what IMO neither he nor the majority of the liberal MPs - necessary for - wanted).
I don't see any way the Tories themself would be able to 'bring down' the Asquith goverment at all.
There are a number of necessary regulations to be met.
- To begin with the King has to dissolve the cabinet on question of the goverment but has prior to this be 'convinced' that the goverment is disabled to work aka find a majority within the house. ... what might have bee necessary to be 'proven' by some kind of vote
- within the liberal faction (remember the change of PMs beginning with Boris Johnson post 2019)
- within the parliament with some 'vote of confidence' on ... whatever (?) matter but therewith the majority of the liberal party would have to go with it and play along or
- by some two-third vote of the parliament for a new election
- Then the voters have to register aka the electoral registration officers to update and close the electoral rolls. A process probably taking a few at least a couple of weeks given the lack of electronical aid of today and has to be finished about a fortnight befor election date (some Thursday)
- Maybe during the same time the candidates to the single constituencíes
have to be selected by their parties. Also aprocess of at leas a couple
of weeks.
- Then the election itself - at least still at that point of time - would take about a fortnight in itself.
- For the 1918 election the electorial laws were changed beside other things to be held on a single day.
- However, changing electorial laws and procedures ITTL in 1914 would by itself also take weeks
But as said : at the very beginning their has to be the want of at least Asquith as well as the party for an election.
Second part:
A 'forced coalition' ... forced by whom? ... the 'outcome' not allowing a single party to 'rule? ... like the two previous elections and the Liberals-IPP 'coalition'?
And regarding the outcome of such an election - if their would be a premature election at all - try some crystal ball tainted by ones own 'wishes', 'believes', 'faith'.
However ... given the plurality of topics during the campaigns (see below) I - very personnally - would assume not much of a change. In the end there would likely still be - though probably narrow - an at least anti-war majority of liberals (regardless a possible split), labour and irish.
C) In a spot election campaign, would the Conservative Party campaign, basically undivided, on a platform of 'Go to war with Germany, yesterday, for God, King, Country, the Empire, the Royal Navy, and the sacred Balance of Power'? [insert whatever slogan you may wish - poor little Serbia or our Gallant Gallic guypals would do as well]
I assume the war topic - however propagandistically worked over by the 'hawks' - would be only a part and possibly not even the most important of their campaign. Domestic topics would likely play a larger role there being so many of:
- 1914 budget (not really passed yet, similar to the 1909 'peoples budget')
- land value tax (some 'pet project' of Lloyd George)
- miners strikes
- tariffs (some 'pet project' of Bonar Law)
- suffragtes
- Home Rule
- Ireland at least
- maybe also Scotland brough to the fore again
- not to forget the welsh church disestablishment which actually at this time played a big role (regardless how ... incomprehensible for us of today)
(IMHO the 'importance' of the continental war to the contemporary britons - as if their 'only' aim was to beat the germans no-matter-what - is only too often overestimated. ... but that's a personal opinion focusing on the contempories perceptions as described in diaries, letters, as well as the whole of the press (the Times and further Northcliff press was far from 'exemplary').)
As soon as the elction results are confirmed (another couple of days (?) after the closing of the election localities). The next Monday after the election the house could sit. That's for the MP only.
D) How soon (measured in days) would the new Commons be filled and Cabinet selected?
To form a goverment would very much depend on the election results themself:
- How 'clear' or still rather 'undecisives' as the former two elections in 1910
- What members with what 'agendas' would have won their seats
- What 'factions' within the parties themself would be how strong ... and would they (esp. on the side of the liberals in case of a conservative 'victory' how narrow ever) eventually split? ... therewith making the set up of a goverment at least more timeconsuming.
E) If a Conservative majority Cabinet or Conservative-led coalition (presumably dominated by 'go to war with Germany' voices) would new Cabinet both inevitably, and promptly declare war on Germany? Or would there be time for the new Cabinet to deliberate, for Parliament to debate, or to form second thoughts, or to respond to second thoughts about entering the war if such emerged from public opinion, newspapers, or new backbenchers?
IMHO it wouldn't be very much before X-mas (in the best case for the militarists/interventionalists) before such a goverment would/could begin to work/sit (if it would be a conservative/Tory controlled goveremnt at all).
They won't 'declare' war outright but would look for some - at least halfway believable - pretext. ... if not been 'moved' by public opinion about not wanting to share the now obvious trench experience with whoever.
... they might be able to 'arrange' some Tonking-incident maybe ... however such were 'believable' even IOTL on whatever point of time ...
... they might be able to 'arrange' some Tonking-incident maybe ... however such were 'believable' even IOTL on whatever point of time ...
The Liberal party, being a minority dependent on Irish support will seek to avoid an election. However there will be tensions over both the war occurring on the continent and whatever happens with the Home Rule programme in Ireland. If there's an election and the Tories get in they may be more eager to join the war but agree their not much more united than the Liberals and if this occurs a few months into an extremely bloody war then the casualty reports, without the invasion of Belgium giving a clear caus belli that could well mean a lot of resistance to joining the conflict.
