Germany Goes East first in 1914, British politics aspects only discussion - continuation

If Britain is not totally debilitated by the Irish question blowing up.....

...and who is to say for sure it would be? Or that even if it escalates that Britain could not 'walk and chew gum' at the same time'?

Could you imagine a scenario where the French incursion into Belgium in 1914, in October perhaps, after initial Lorraine disappointments, and the British DoW the Germans anyway, over Entente commitments, and paper over justifications with alternate excuses besides the 'poor little Belgium' justification, emphasizing the German ambition, German industrial commercial menace, German fleet menace, Austria is a catspaw for Germany, and 'even if Austria is right to be angry at Serbia, Austria is being to brutal now to the Serb civilians in Serbia and Bosnia now', and 'the Germans are being too brutal to the Russian Poles now', and the 'we cannot let France lose' arguments to justify belligerence and BEF deployment to France and Belgium to oppose the Germans?

In the first two years of the war, the results of this is that it loosens the German grip on Alsace-Lorraine, and eventually on all the locations in Belgium and Luxembourg that the Germans are able to mount a forward defense in for many months, but the British and French cannot get into the Saarland or broader Rhineland. Meanwhile, the Germans, economically using their forces, defend the Rhineland after a prolonged fighting retreat from from central and eastern Belgium where they encounter invading Frenchmen (whether the Belgians side with the Germans, or more likely, the French, or no-one) and Alsace-Lorraine, and use their other reserves to batter the Russians out of Congress Poland, Lithuania and Galicia, while Austria-Hungary smashes Serbia, by the end with Bulgarian help, and the Ottomans likely attack Russia, or not.

Meanwhile, the British (with Dominions), French and Japanese snap up the German colonial empire, largely completing the task by early to mid 1915.

However, by late 1915 losses to France especially are massive, and to British forces are unprecedented, quite large, killed off much of the old army, require new mass volunteer levies and consideration of conscription. The French ardor for the war is only slightly diminished for having won the recovery and revanche of Alsace-Lorraine and the sadness of mass casualties - the French political class wants to press on to get into damage and punish Germany in Saar and Rhineland on its own territory and gain buffer space, and preserve its Russian alliance by getting the Central Powers off Russia's back. However, the French are increasingly demanding more and more British men to help do it. The Belgians meanwhile, for what they are worth, if on the Allied side, are ready to quit active fighting if they have their land clear of Germans. And the British, blockade in effect, having more than secured the survival of France (aided in its territorial revival in fact), and grabbed colonial trinkets around the globe for itself, its Dominions and its French and Japanese allies, and driven German commerce out of global markets, and not really caring at all about the fate of Serbia, or how many acres of Poland the Romanovs rule or not, and sick of the ghastly losses and expense, and not having the righteous cause of freeing plucky little Belgium or the occupied Frenchmen to fight for, and not wanting to impose conscription, and the lack of the righteous cause and wonder why the war maybe shouldn't be over causing hesitation about volunteering, maybe just leads to Britain telling its own Allies and the Central Powers, "we can keep going on to crush you eventually, but ready to make peace along the battle lines we have today and save everyone the trouble today, if you are ready for that as well old chap."?

Before getting into British considerations stevep , what do you think about my claims regarding the Belgians - that they probably would not fight the French?

Do you think that's wrong, that if the French were the first to violate their neutrality, they would reverse their defense policy to fit the reverse circumstances exactly and cooperate with Germans to defend their country from the French invaders. Hmm, if that happened, is their any chance the Dutch would join the Belgians and Germans in that defense?


How is war decided in the Westminster system as of summer 1914? Majority of Cabinet approves? Absolute consensus of Cabinet?

What does it take to crash a Cabinet, bring it tumbling down, and force new elections? Can dissenting members of Cabinet alone bring this about, or do things need to be referred to Parliament, in session, to call a vote of no confidence?

In other words, could domineering figures in a Cabinet led by a PM and backed by a Cabinet majority, declare war on behalf of the country before the country registers the significance of dissenting Ministers resigning in protest? Parliament gets no choice at all, except to fund the war that is declared and now being fought....which is hardly a choice at all?

Word like 'heated' and 'difficult' matter when politicians defer to each other and to the public beyond the letter of any explicitly written constitutional authorities - I guess a necessity for a country with an unwritten constitution. In my country, the politicians' rule is no deference to anyone, that is for sissies and losers. Do what you want up to the very limit of constitutional authority and legality without regard to decorum or custom or norms, only losing a scheduled a election or losing court judgment and having it enforced is there to stop you....so I don't quite understand Parliamentarism when it functions in a way it is supposed to.








What constitutes the CP 'doing very well' and 'overwhelmingly dominant in Europe' in British public opinion, British press organs, among British politicians and leaders? I would imagine peace settlements involving CP annexations of double-digit percentages of French and Russian territory in Europe, or charging of indemnities to them beyond finite damages similar to civil property cases, or annexations of colonial territories or permanent blanket disarmament provisions of France or Russia would all trend in that direction. But how close to that scenario is too close? Does Britain need to make sure that Serbia survives, and that all of Congress Poland remains Russian, to preserve 'Russia's Great Power status', and 'a balance of power allowing France to survive independently? If the Germans are killing double the number of Frenchmen or half again as many Frenchmen as the other way around, do the British feel compelled to intervene on behalf of the French to help even things out by making sure more Germans die so Germany does not get overwhelmingly dominant down the line.

In what I was laying out, where Belgium does not resist the French, and the British siding relatively early with the Entente the Germans were getting pushed back in the west, but making slow, steady, and modest (compared to the size of the Russian Empire) gains in the east. If Britain is not in the fight on the French side, but France is violating Belgium to outflank its early failures on the Alsace-Lorraine front, where is the battle line likely stabilizing between the French and the Germans by winter 1914-15, or spring 1915?

The French have lost a bunch of men in failed Alsace-Lorraine attacks at the beginning of the war, and then they've lost more in encounter battles with the Germans in Belgium. But they are better off in several ways than OTL, with their home territory, its fields, mines, factories, and towns and villages for recruitment free of enemy occupation and ready to serve the war effort and mobilized to join and supply the Army. And the French probably have control over half or a third or two-thirds of Belgian territory also, instead of a mere sliver. And maybe their flanking through Belgium would force some German retrenchments in Luxemburg and Lorraine.

So, if the French have all their home ground, little bits of Alsace and Lorraine, and half of Belgium, but then German counter-attack mean, they get back all Alsace-Lorraine and two-thirds of Belgium, is that Germany 'getting too dominant' and France losing 'too much' to Britain? Or does France have to start losing pre-war territory for Britain to worry about its fate going forward?

Indeed so.





If the Germans are going east first, and they do not have to actually declare war on any borders or even declare war on Russia right away, their main task is to reinforce the east enough to defend their own border and have enough forces to help the Austro-Hungarians beat back any Russian attacks, while the Austro-Hungarians can send other armies south to 'go ham' on Serbia.

For a couple days, theoretically, that gives Russia an 'out' if they don't carry out their threats against Austria and Germany. But if they attack Austria the Austrians will defend themselves and the Germans can help them on their soil, and that will spill across their mutual borders, all the faster if the Russians attack East Prussia.

Superior tactics, equipment, mobility of Germans and Austrians working together would probably shove the Russians out of Congress Poland in stages, as well as Lithuania, and any of Galicia they might briefly grab. So to Russians is may fairly soon appear like a defense of the motherland, but not very deep into the motherland. The war would start over the Balkans and at the frontiers, batter back gradually from the frontiers, and not really reach ethnic Russian land, so, although it will involve millions more men in battle, it will geographically resemble the more border-ish wars of the Russo-Japanese, Russo-Turkish, and Crimean more than the drama and great chase of Napoleon invading the Russian heartland from Borodino to Minsk to Smolensk to Moscow and getting chased back out.

If Britain is not totally debilitated by the Irish question blowing up.....

...and who is to say for sure it would be? Or that even if it escalates that Britain could not 'walk and chew gum' at the same time'?

In the first two years of the war, the results of this is that it loosens the German grip on Alsace-Lorraine, and eventually on all the locations in Belgium and Luxembourg that the Germans are able to mount a forward defense in for many months, but the British and French cannot get into the Saarland or broader Rhineland. Meanwhile, the Germans, economically using their forces, defend the Rhineland after a prolonged fighting retreat from from central and eastern Belgium where they encounter invading Frenchmen (whether the Belgians side with the Germans, or more likely, the French, or no-one) and Alsace-Lorraine, and use their other reserves to batter the Russians out of Congress Poland, Lithuania and Galicia, while Austria-Hungary smashes Serbia, by the end with Bulgarian help, and the Ottomans likely attack Russia, or not.

Meanwhile, the British (with Dominions), French and Japanese snap up the German colonial empire, largely completing the task by early to mid 1915.

However, by late 1915 losses to France especially are massive, and to British forces are unprecedented, quite large, killed off much of the old army, require new mass volunteer levies and consideration of conscription. The French ardor for the war is only slightly diminished for having won the recovery and revanche of Alsace-Lorraine and the sadness of mass casualties - the French political class wants to press on to get into damage and punish Germany in Saar and Rhineland on its own territory and gain buffer space, and preserve its Russian alliance by getting the Central Powers off Russia's back. However, the French are increasingly demanding more and more British men to help do it. The Belgians meanwhile, for what they are worth, if on the Allied side, are ready to quit active fighting if they have their land clear of Germans. And the British, blockade in effect, having more than secured the survival of France (aided in its territorial revival in fact), and grabbed colonial trinkets around the globe for itself, its Dominions and its French and Japanese allies, and driven German commerce out of global markets, and not really caring at all about the fate of Serbia, or how many acres of Poland the Romanovs rule or not, and sick of the ghastly losses and expense, and not having the righteous cause of freeing plucky little Belgium or the occupied Frenchmen to fight for, and not wanting to impose conscription, and the lack of the righteous cause and wonder why the war maybe shouldn't be over causing hesitation about volunteering, maybe just leads to Britain telling its own Allies and the Central Powers, "we can keep going on to crush you eventually, but ready to make peace along the battle lines we have today and save everyone the trouble today, if you are ready for that as well old chap."?