stevep
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Post by stevep on Nov 3, 2024 12:07:32 GMT
Another factor here is that Germany will be desperate for more troops so unless it changes its policy of preferring recruits from rural/agricultural regions to industrial ones there will be even less farmer workers. Furthermore even if they recruit largely from the industrial regions the forces will rely heavily on horses for movement of supplies, artillery and the like which will take more of them out of the civilian market, hitting agriculture even harder.
I think that there were a fair number of Poles who had moved to industrial areas from the eastern provinces for employment so their position is going to be awkward. They could face a lot of hostility but in turn the economy would be hit further if their dismissed.
Going to be interesting with v Spee's force. He's going to want to do something but the information from the Poles, both in terms of aid in intercepting communications/breaking codes and possibly even more the historical data it could mean an early battle which ends his raiding career. At the same time he has a lot of sea to high in. HMAS Australia would be a major threat but could probably only take out one or two of the German force as their likely to scatter if they run into her and also there were problems with teh 12" guns at longer ranges - due to vibrations in the barrels IIRC - so the amount of ammo would be a factor as well. Historically at the Falklands both BCs were running low on ammo before they killed the two respective AC's they were chasing, although partly that was because of Sturdee's tactics. Be interesting to see what develops.
Germany have a REAL problem on its hands. They may cut back on fertilizer for agriculture which will make things even worse in their areas. Those agricultural men to a large part lived in the East of Germany even if farms generally dotted the landscape outside towns and cities - at least major producers. Being robbed of 1/3 of the possible mobilizable men is also a real problem. Denmark supplied quite a number of horses to Germany in both World Wars and will so here. Found something extremely nasty here - 22.7 % unemployment in German (industry) within 2 months of the mobilization because of skilled workers, specialist's and workforemen being drafted. Presumably the General Staff found it to be better to control them in the Army than having them roam freely in the cities.
The Germans didn't intern foreign nationals untill late 1914 early 1915 so they may stay in place but of course as with the British they may suffer abuse.
V. Spee - well my hidden agenda would be for him to try a Graf Spee on HMAS Australia though of course such will be difficult to pull off certainly so with the RN and Poles listening in on radiotraffic. Those German ACs are rather deadly to a pre-Dreadnought but a modern BC..
a) That is bad, especially considering what I suggested for Berlin. The hunger will hit harder and earlier than OTL, especially since they will have no occupied territory in the west or from 1915 in the east to supply the home population. They will be able to trade with local neutrals and that could well include Austria here - not sure what the state of play with any allied blockade or other actions against Austria but with no war with Italy the latter should be in a better position economically. However food and other stuff will be an important issue. Coal would be another factor for Berlin with winter coming.
b) Did you mean some sort of drop in production? It seems strange that taking up men from industry would increase unemployment so drastically. Although some skilled workers being lost could mean some companies who were highly dependent on them and which were not protected because they were seen as important for military production could be badly impacted. Also do you know whether those people were actually conscripted or volunteered? OTL Britain had a problem with no real limits on volunteers which meant a lot of companies suffered because important workers were lost to the military when they joined up.
c) The reason I mentioned those people was because their technically German citizens, from the Polish speaking eastern provinces that are now under Polish control. A fair number seemed to have move west to the Ruhr and other industrial areas for the higher wages and I think in some numbers - tens of thousands - although a long time since I read this. Their going to be wanted for their labour, especially with so many people going to the army but their likely to face at least some mistrust and hostility.
d) That would be a brave move but might work. However if it goes wrong for Spee then the threat posed by his forces would be massively reduced.
You are touching on a sore point here is discussions of naval matters, what is a battle cruiser! The Germans in WWI didn't call their large fast ships, such as Goeben BC's and initially neither did the RN for the 6 I class ships of which RANS Australia was one. They were termed DAC - Dreadnought Armoured Cruisers - because they had capital ship guns in numbers seen on a dreadnought type BB but pretty much the armour of a traditional armoured cruiser such as Spee's most powerful two ships. Their initial purpose was to hunt down fast raiders, such as Spee's ships or liners taken up as commercial raiders. The latter was considered a serious potential problem before the war because some powers, most especially Germany obviously had a sizeable fleet of liners that if given guns would have the range and speed to be raiders that could be difficult for traditional cruisers to catch/overpower. However because the I class had battleship guns and fast cruiser speed elements in the British press started using the term Battlecruiser. Coupled with this the Germans responded with a number of ships, starting with Von der Tann which although having slightly weaker guns - 11" and later 12" to match the 13.5" of the Lion class that followed the I's - they had armour pretty much matching that of their own battleships. Given that for strongly debated reasons the Queen Elizabeth class fast battleships only made about 24-25kts rather than the planned for 26-27kts and only 4 Lions - including the modified Tiger - were built Britain faced a shortage in fast ships with capital ship guns the I's started being put into the battlecruiser squadron.
There is a parallel here with the flight of Goeben to Constantinople and the actions of Rear Admiral Troubridge where he faced a similar problem to what Spee would face against Australia, 4 armoured cruisers and a number of destroyers against Goeben and the light cruiser Breslau. His force was superior to Spee's but Goeben was stronger than Australia and most evaluations of the possibilities would be that Troubridge would not be able to do significant damage to Goeben while likely taking heavy losses himself and that his orders included a vague command from Churchill about British ships not engaging superior forces he didn't try and close with Goeben. He was heavily criticised for this decision, given the very aggressive attitude in the RN in terms of engaging the enemy regardless of the odds which prompted him to demand a courts martial. This he won, clearing his name but he was never given a significant command again.
I think, especially if Spee could take Australia by surprise, say hiding behind an island to enable a close ranged ambush or getting a night action as the Germans were markedly better trained and prepared for night actions in WWI than the RN he might pull off a victory, although he's likely to take serious damage doing so, especially to his two big ships. However while Australia would be outnumbered its faster and has much bigger guns with a longer range. Therefore if surprise didn't work I suspect Spee would scatter his force so that Australia could only chase down say one or two ships while the others get away. Its likely that both sides would use up a lot of fuel and ammo and the Germans would have problems replacing ammo especially.
Personally I would say Spee would be wise to avoid such an encounter and maintain a fleet in being tying down substantial British/Imperial/Allied forces in the Pacific/Far East region with hit and run raids. However given the reports he would be getting from Europe and the dire position of Germany he might decide he needs to hit hard somewhere, either trying to trap RANS Australia or hitting say harbours or merchant shipping across a fairly wide region.
I do notice in looking up details the Australians had started at least occupying German colonies such as Samoa by late August and this might still occur here.
Anyway sorry for such a long reply on this point but the sort of encounter is discussed a fair bit on some naval sites and its definitely a complex issue.
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575
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Post by 575 on Nov 3, 2024 13:10:34 GMT
a) I would solely see it as a lever to get the Germans into negotiating and certainly not for keeps - I'd guess even Pilsudski would be too clever to think of such. The problem is whatever the Poles will do the Germans will want revenge. BTW starvation is coming and the Berliners try reduce the effect. Have thought of what the Poles would do with the German harvest in the areas controlled by Poland - letting the Germans themselves move it to Berlin would be a way of reducing starvation and show the World "hey we are letting your peoples help themselves not starve."
c) My take too which would also entail keeping their Empire with no Lawrence of Arabia - except on his own.
a) Thanks for clarifying. I agree that the Germans will want revenge regardless but if there's clear and large scale civilian suffering in Berlin which can be pointed at as clearly caused by the Polish actions its going to both heighten that desire for revenge and also make the western powers less willing to support the Poles in the longer term.
One thing the Poles could do would be to say they would enable a safe route for food and other non-military materials to reach Berlin - say by a single rail line - with them checking no military stuff gets through. This throws a good chunk of the responsibility back on the Germans, reducing any international damage for Poland and of course having lost its eastern territories its going to struggle to find the food to feed Berlin, which will cut down on resources for elsewhere, including the army.
c) I would say there would be little chance of the Arab revolt succeeding without the OTL substantial allied aid and of course the allied forces that actually occupied the bulk of the fertile crescent. If there's still a revolt without this its going to cause the Turks some problems but I would expect them to be relatively minor.
a) The Poles are going to change their policy regarding Berling soon by taking advante of the agricutural produce surplus in their occupied territories!
c) Well I thought so.
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575
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Post by 575 on Nov 3, 2024 13:29:03 GMT
Germany have a REAL problem on its hands. They may cut back on fertilizer for agriculture which will make things even worse in their areas. Those agricultural men to a large part lived in the East of Germany even if farms generally dotted the landscape outside towns and cities - at least major producers. Being robbed of 1/3 of the possible mobilizable men is also a real problem. Denmark supplied quite a number of horses to Germany in both World Wars and will so here. Found something extremely nasty here - 22.7 % unemployment in German (industry) within 2 months of the mobilization because of skilled workers, specialist's and workforemen being drafted. Presumably the General Staff found it to be better to control them in the Army than having them roam freely in the cities.
The Germans didn't intern foreign nationals untill late 1914 early 1915 so they may stay in place but of course as with the British they may suffer abuse.
V. Spee - well my hidden agenda would be for him to try a Graf Spee on HMAS Australia though of course such will be difficult to pull off certainly so with the RN and Poles listening in on radiotraffic. Those German ACs are rather deadly to a pre-Dreadnought but a modern BC..
a) That is bad, especially considering what I suggested for Berlin. The hunger will hit harder and earlier than OTL, especially since they will have no occupied territory in the west or from 1915 in the east to supply the home population. They will be able to trade with local neutrals and that could well include Austria here - not sure what the state of play with any allied blockade or other actions against Austria but with no war with Italy the latter should be in a better position economically. However food and other stuff will be an important issue. Coal would be another factor for Berlin with winter coming.
b) Did you mean some sort of drop in production? It seems strange that taking up men from industry would increase unemployment so drastically. Although some skilled workers being lost could mean some companies who were highly dependent on them and which were not protected because they were seen as important for military production could be badly impacted. Also do you know whether those people were actually conscripted or volunteered? OTL Britain had a problem with no real limits on volunteers which meant a lot of companies suffered because important workers were lost to the military when they joined up.
c) The reason I mentioned those people was because their technically German citizens, from the Polish speaking eastern provinces that are now under Polish control. A fair number seemed to have move west to the Ruhr and other industrial areas for the higher wages and I think in some numbers - tens of thousands - although a long time since I read this. Their going to be wanted for their labour, especially with so many people going to the army but their likely to face at least some mistrust and hostility.
d) That would be a brave move but might work. However if it goes wrong for Spee then the threat posed by his forces would be massively reduced.
You are touching on a sore point here is discussions of naval matters, what is a battle cruiser! The Germans in WWI didn't call their large fast ships, such as Goeben BC's and initially neither did the RN for the 6 I class ships of which RANS Australia was one. They were termed DAC - Dreadnought Armoured Cruisers - because they had capital ship guns in numbers seen on a dreadnought type BB but pretty much the armour of a traditional armoured cruiser such as Spee's most powerful two ships. Their initial purpose was to hunt down fast raiders, such as Spee's ships or liners taken up as commercial raiders. The latter was considered a serious potential problem before the war because some powers, most especially Germany obviously had a sizeable fleet of liners that if given guns would have the range and speed to be raiders that could be difficult for traditional cruisers to catch/overpower. However because the I class had battleship guns and fast cruiser speed elements in the British press started using the term Battlecruiser. Coupled with this the Germans responded with a number of ships, starting with Von der Tann which although having slightly weaker guns - 11" and later 12" to match the 13.5" of the Lion class that followed the I's - they had armour pretty much matching that of their own battleships. Given that for strongly debated reasons the Queen Elizabeth class fast battleships only made about 24-25kts rather than the planned for 26-27kts and only 4 Lions - including the modified Tiger - were built Britain faced a shortage in fast ships with capital ship guns the I's started being put into the battlecruiser squadron.
There is a parallel here with the flight of Goeben to Constantinople and the actions of Rear Admiral Troubridge where he faced a similar problem to what Spee would face against Australia, 4 armoured cruisers and a number of destroyers against Goeben and the light cruiser Breslau. His force was superior to Spee's but Goeben was stronger than Australia and most evaluations of the possibilities would be that Troubridge would not be able to do significant damage to Goeben while likely taking heavy losses himself and that his orders included a vague command from Churchill about British ships not engaging superior forces he didn't try and close with Goeben. He was heavily criticised for this decision, given the very aggressive attitude in the RN in terms of engaging the enemy regardless of the odds which prompted him to demand a courts martial. This he won, clearing his name but he was never given a significant command again.
I think, especially if Spee could take Australia by surprise, say hiding behind an island to enable a close ranged ambush or getting a night action as the Germans were markedly better trained and prepared for night actions in WWI than the RN he might pull off a victory, although he's likely to take serious damage doing so, especially to his two big ships. However while Australia would be outnumbered its faster and has much bigger guns with a longer range. Therefore if surprise didn't work I suspect Spee would scatter his force so that Australia could only chase down say one or two ships while the others get away. Its likely that both sides would use up a lot of fuel and ammo and the Germans would have problems replacing ammo especially.
Personally I would say Spee would be wise to avoid such an encounter and maintain a fleet in being tying down substantial British/Imperial/Allied forces in the Pacific/Far East region with hit and run raids. However given the reports he would be getting from Europe and the dire position of Germany he might decide he needs to hit hard somewhere, either trying to trap RANS Australia or hitting say harbours or merchant shipping across a fairly wide region.
I do notice in looking up details the Australians had started at least occupying German colonies such as Samoa by late August and this might still occur here.
Anyway sorry for such a long reply on this point but the sort of encounter is discussed a fair bit on some naval sites and its definitely a complex issue.
a) Don't have sources on A-H agricultural produce but the loss of Galizia may mean some though its population is also gone as is most of the Army. Will have a look at it.
c) Don't understand - if those 1914 Poles from Posen area and Silesia as well as East Prussia migrated to the Rhineland? for better wages pre-War as I read a lot did then they are still in place if not drafted. I was strictly referring to German nationals of whatever etnicity not forrin's! Like the Radziwill's which were of course deeply integrated nobility and as such much above the mean common population. Non-german nationals were interned.
d) Do understand and it was my idea not really v Spee OTL but if the RN thought it could work why not the Germans? He wanted to do a lot of damage though was weary of HMAS Australia so why not - as an operational option - consider doing a Graf Spee? He apparently feared that Australia would sink his two major units thus he should hit and run but also knew that he would run out of logistics at some point - sooner I'd wager than later. Without the Japanese going initially for the German Pacific Islands he would have a kind of Home Waters he could use to try trick the RN rathen than just raid and then go for South America which proved a disappointment regarding support. At any point the ultimate option would be to try going home which would certainly end - and did - in disaster.
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stevep
Fleet admiral
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Post by stevep on Nov 4, 2024 1:42:56 GMT
a) That is bad, especially considering what I suggested for Berlin. The hunger will hit harder and earlier than OTL, especially since they will have no occupied territory in the west or from 1915 in the east to supply the home population. They will be able to trade with local neutrals and that could well include Austria here - not sure what the state of play with any allied blockade or other actions against Austria but with no war with Italy the latter should be in a better position economically. However food and other stuff will be an important issue. Coal would be another factor for Berlin with winter coming.
b) Did you mean some sort of drop in production? It seems strange that taking up men from industry would increase unemployment so drastically. Although some skilled workers being lost could mean some companies who were highly dependent on them and which were not protected because they were seen as important for military production could be badly impacted. Also do you know whether those people were actually conscripted or volunteered? OTL Britain had a problem with no real limits on volunteers which meant a lot of companies suffered because important workers were lost to the military when they joined up.
c) The reason I mentioned those people was because their technically German citizens, from the Polish speaking eastern provinces that are now under Polish control. A fair number seemed to have move west to the Ruhr and other industrial areas for the higher wages and I think in some numbers - tens of thousands - although a long time since I read this. Their going to be wanted for their labour, especially with so many people going to the army but their likely to face at least some mistrust and hostility.
d) That would be a brave move but might work. However if it goes wrong for Spee then the threat posed by his forces would be massively reduced.
You are touching on a sore point here is discussions of naval matters, what is a battle cruiser! The Germans in WWI didn't call their large fast ships, such as Goeben BC's and initially neither did the RN for the 6 I class ships of which RANS Australia was one. They were termed DAC - Dreadnought Armoured Cruisers - because they had capital ship guns in numbers seen on a dreadnought type BB but pretty much the armour of a traditional armoured cruiser such as Spee's most powerful two ships. Their initial purpose was to hunt down fast raiders, such as Spee's ships or liners taken up as commercial raiders. The latter was considered a serious potential problem before the war because some powers, most especially Germany obviously had a sizeable fleet of liners that if given guns would have the range and speed to be raiders that could be difficult for traditional cruisers to catch/overpower. However because the I class had battleship guns and fast cruiser speed elements in the British press started using the term Battlecruiser. Coupled with this the Germans responded with a number of ships, starting with Von der Tann which although having slightly weaker guns - 11" and later 12" to match the 13.5" of the Lion class that followed the I's - they had armour pretty much matching that of their own battleships. Given that for strongly debated reasons the Queen Elizabeth class fast battleships only made about 24-25kts rather than the planned for 26-27kts and only 4 Lions - including the modified Tiger - were built Britain faced a shortage in fast ships with capital ship guns the I's started being put into the battlecruiser squadron.
There is a parallel here with the flight of Goeben to Constantinople and the actions of Rear Admiral Troubridge where he faced a similar problem to what Spee would face against Australia, 4 armoured cruisers and a number of destroyers against Goeben and the light cruiser Breslau. His force was superior to Spee's but Goeben was stronger than Australia and most evaluations of the possibilities would be that Troubridge would not be able to do significant damage to Goeben while likely taking heavy losses himself and that his orders included a vague command from Churchill about British ships not engaging superior forces he didn't try and close with Goeben. He was heavily criticised for this decision, given the very aggressive attitude in the RN in terms of engaging the enemy regardless of the odds which prompted him to demand a courts martial. This he won, clearing his name but he was never given a significant command again.
I think, especially if Spee could take Australia by surprise, say hiding behind an island to enable a close ranged ambush or getting a night action as the Germans were markedly better trained and prepared for night actions in WWI than the RN he might pull off a victory, although he's likely to take serious damage doing so, especially to his two big ships. However while Australia would be outnumbered its faster and has much bigger guns with a longer range. Therefore if surprise didn't work I suspect Spee would scatter his force so that Australia could only chase down say one or two ships while the others get away. Its likely that both sides would use up a lot of fuel and ammo and the Germans would have problems replacing ammo especially.
Personally I would say Spee would be wise to avoid such an encounter and maintain a fleet in being tying down substantial British/Imperial/Allied forces in the Pacific/Far East region with hit and run raids. However given the reports he would be getting from Europe and the dire position of Germany he might decide he needs to hit hard somewhere, either trying to trap RANS Australia or hitting say harbours or merchant shipping across a fairly wide region.
I do notice in looking up details the Australians had started at least occupying German colonies such as Samoa by late August and this might still occur here.
Anyway sorry for such a long reply on this point but the sort of encounter is discussed a fair bit on some naval sites and its definitely a complex issue.
a) Don't have sources on A-H agricultural produce but the loss of Galizia may mean some though its population is also gone as is most of the Army. Will have a look at it.
c) Don't understand - if those 1914 Poles from Posen area and Silesia as well as East Prussia migrated to the Rhineland? for better wages pre-War as I read a lot did then they are still in place if not drafted. I was strictly referring to German nationals of whatever etnicity not forrin's! Like the Radziwill's which were of course deeply integrated nobility and as such much above the mean common population. Non-german nationals were interned.
d) Do understand and it was my idea not really v Spee OTL but if the RN thought it could work why not the Germans? He wanted to do a lot of damage though was weary of HMAS Australia so why not - as an operational option - consider doing a Graf Spee? He apparently feared that Australia would sink his two major units thus he should hit and run but also knew that he would run out of logistics at some point - sooner I'd wager than later. Without the Japanese going initially for the German Pacific Islands he would have a kind of Home Waters he could use to try trick the RN rathen than just raid and then go for South America which proved a disappointment regarding support. At any point the ultimate option would be to try going home which would certainly end - and did - in disaster.
a) Good point.
b) Thanks for clarifying. Surprising how much disruption it seems to have caused to the economy in such a short period of time and could be even worse in TTL.
c) Sorry possibly at cross purposes. You had mentioned in your previous post about Germany not interning foreigners for several months so I thought you might have meant those Poles were non-nationals from outside 1914 Germany borders. Thinking about it some of them might well have been as German industrial areas might have been attractive for Poles from the less developed Russian ruled provinces as well.
I get the feeling that with this new Poland appearing and doing such damage to imperial Germany they will face some level of discrimination but then with the level of economic disruption that could protection them somewhat as their labour is needed.
d) Well it would be a bold move and a distinct gamble but he might try it. See what you decide.
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575
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Post by 575 on Nov 4, 2024 8:20:45 GMT
The Ottomans
The German downfall being a matter of time had the Ottomans reassert their position. Mustafa Kemal Pasha had gotten the info from Envoy Bey at Warsaw and had acted upon it. With a group of likeminded officers some who had also gotten information from Bey and the rest told of the OTL events of ten of thoudsands Turkish troops lost in the Caucasus during the winter he pulled off a successfull coup to secure a neutral stance in the War.
As news got out the Goeben and Breslau had steam up and went to Istanbul picking up the German Military Mission and sailed for Romania.
Of course Mustafa Kemal Pasha was accused of spoiling that situation but countered that the Germans had shown their true colors but also that the British were talking about the delivery of the 2 Dreadnoughts of the Resadiye class (of which one had been seized by the RN for its service due to the War and the other about to enter RN service) once war would be over.
Marshal Pilsudski who wanted to have the Ottoman Empire on his side in the possible upcoming struggle with the Soviets should they prove victorious had ordered a redrawing of the Polish agreements with Ottoman Empire/Turkey.
Pilsudski had informed the British and French of the possible swing of the Ottomans should it be presented with the Resadiye Dreadnoughts in return allowing use of the Straits for supplying White General Denikin in Ukraine and not enter alliance with the Central Powers.
That sounded very interesting to the British and French.
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stevep
Fleet admiral
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Post by stevep on Nov 4, 2024 11:52:27 GMT
The Ottomans The German downfall being a matter of time had the Ottomans reassert their position. Mustafa Kemal Pasha had gotten the info from Envoy Bey at Warsaw and had acted upon it. With a group of likeminded officers some who had also gotten information from Bey and the rest told of the OTL events of ten of thoudsands Turkish troops lost in the Caucasus during the winter he pulled off a successfull coup to secure a neutral stance in the War. As news got out the Goeben and Breslau had steam up and went to Istanbul picking up the German Military Mission and sailed for Romania. Of course Mustafa Kemal Pasha was accused of spoiling that situation but countered that the Germans had shown their true colors but also that the British were talking about the delivery of the 2 Dreadnoughts of the Resadiye class (of which one had been seized by the RN for its service due to the War and the other about to enter RN service) once war would be over. Marshal Pilsudski who wanted to have the Ottoman Empire on his side in the possible upcoming struggle with the Soviets should they prove victorious had ordered a redrawing of the Polish agreements with Ottoman Empire/Turkey. Pilsudski had informed the British and French of the possible swing of the Ottomans should it be presented with the Resadiye Dreadnoughts in return allowing use of the Straits for supplying White General Denikin in Ukraine and not enter alliance with the Central Powers. That sounded very interesting to the British and French.
Initial thoughts a) Mustafa Kemal had already had a pretty successful career militarily with a strong performance especially in the defence of eastern Libya during the war with Italy but he was still a relatively mid level officer who had also been noted as being anti-monarchist and seeking to de-politicize the army so it could be a bit of a call for him to have the influence to pull a coup off. Although if Polish influnce could confirm the British would return the ships after the war - which could now look quite a short conflict that would be an help.
b) There is some evidence that the Greeks had extensive plans for a pre-emptive war with Turkey before the ships were delivered as that would give the latter overwhelming naval superiority against the Balkan powers so if they hear the ships are going to be supplied that could trigger a Greek-Turkish conflict while the Greeks had naval superiority.
c) Not sure what the status of the straits was at this point as to whether ships of a belligerent power, especially one which doesn't have a port on the Black Sea could pass through. Although if they do their going to face limited choices. Their going to either end up scuttling the ships or face internment.
i) They might have gone to Romania because the king was German born although he's due to die shortly and the bulk of the political establishment is hostile to Austria - although that could be less important given Austria's agreed neutrality with Poland. Possibly thinking they could persuade the Romanians to support the anti-Bolshevik forces and seize Bessarabia.
ii) They could go to Bulgaria which might be considered more friendly as it was the losing power in the 2nd Balkan war and has issues with Serbia, although how a couple of warships isolated in the Black Sea could help Bulgaria in such a conflict would be unclear other than to possibly deter Romania or Turkey from joining such a conflict against Bulgaria.
iii) They could seek to 'join' the White forces in the Ukraine region. This might be more politically popular with a lot of the officers and could avoid them being interned within a short period of time. However their going to be isolated and largely devoid of any supplies. Can probably get fuel and food for the crews but ammo, spare parts and the like are going to be pretty much impossible so the ships are likely to deteriorate in combat ability over time fairly quickly. Also with the expectation of an early German defeat morale is going to be a big issue as many sailors especially are likely to want to return home and question why their fighting in a war that seems to have no relevance to them.
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575
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Post by 575 on Nov 4, 2024 21:04:20 GMT
The Ottomans The German downfall being a matter of time had the Ottomans reassert their position. Mustafa Kemal Pasha had gotten the info from Envoy Bey at Warsaw and had acted upon it. With a group of likeminded officers some who had also gotten information from Bey and the rest told of the OTL events of ten of thoudsands Turkish troops lost in the Caucasus during the winter he pulled off a successfull coup to secure a neutral stance in the War. As news got out the Goeben and Breslau had steam up and went to Istanbul picking up the German Military Mission and sailed for Romania. Of course Mustafa Kemal Pasha was accused of spoiling that situation but countered that the Germans had shown their true colors but also that the British were talking about the delivery of the 2 Dreadnoughts of the Resadiye class (of which one had been seized by the RN for its service due to the War and the other about to enter RN service) once war would be over. Marshal Pilsudski who wanted to have the Ottoman Empire on his side in the possible upcoming struggle with the Soviets should they prove victorious had ordered a redrawing of the Polish agreements with Ottoman Empire/Turkey. Pilsudski had informed the British and French of the possible swing of the Ottomans should it be presented with the Resadiye Dreadnoughts in return allowing use of the Straits for supplying White General Denikin in Ukraine and not enter alliance with the Central Powers. That sounded very interesting to the British and French.
Initial thoughts a) Mustafa Kemal had already had a pretty successful career militarily with a strong performance especially in the defence of eastern Libya during the war with Italy but he was still a relatively mid level officer who had also been noted as being anti-monarchist and seeking to de-politicize the army so it could be a bit of a call for him to have the influence to pull a coup off. Although if Polish influnce could confirm the British would return the ships after the war - which could now look quite a short conflict that would be an help.
b) There is some evidence that the Greeks had extensive plans for a pre-emptive war with Turkey before the ships were delivered as that would give the latter overwhelming naval superiority against the Balkan powers so if they hear the ships are going to be supplied that could trigger a Greek-Turkish conflict while the Greeks had naval superiority.
c) Not sure what the status of the straits was at this point as to whether ships of a belligerent power, especially one which doesn't have a port on the Black Sea could pass through. Although if they do their going to face limited choices. Their going to either end up scuttling the ships or face internment.
i) They might have gone to Romania because the king was German born although he's due to die shortly and the bulk of the political establishment is hostile to Austria - although that could be less important given Austria's agreed neutrality with Poland. Possibly thinking they could persuade the Romanians to support the anti-Bolshevik forces and seize Bessarabia.
ii) They could go to Bulgaria which might be considered more friendly as it was the losing power in the 2nd Balkan war and has issues with Serbia, although how a couple of warships isolated in the Black Sea could help Bulgaria in such a conflict would be unclear other than to possibly deter Romania or Turkey from joining such a conflict against Bulgaria.
iii) They could seek to 'join' the White forces in the Ukraine region. This might be more politically popular with a lot of the officers and could avoid them being interned within a short period of time. However their going to be isolated and largely devoid of any supplies. Can probably get fuel and food for the crews but ammo, spare parts and the like are going to be pretty much impossible so the ships are likely to deteriorate in combat ability over time fairly quickly. Also with the expectation of an early German defeat morale is going to be a big issue as many sailors especially are likely to want to return home and question why their fighting in a war that seems to have no relevance to them.
a) Also understand that he had been involved in a coup earlier and had some affiliates - its not just him but the Envoy at Warsaw see him as an important figure. Also read that Mustafa Kemal had a severe grudge on the Armenians due to their support of Russia which would lead to the Genocide.
b) Thanks - hmm well thats why they were inactive during the War waiting for the right oppotunity. There may still be a Greek - Turk War then.
c) I understand that the Romanian King wasn't adverse to a Central Powers alliance so that may be the trigger - also that that would be the shortest way home. If the Ottomans have been coup'd and not going to ally with Germany why sit down and wait it out. With Entente warships on the western side of the Straits lets go deprive the Turks of our ships nor letting the Entente have the joy of sinking them.
c too) No.
c three) They are still Imperial German Sailors - their countrys at war so they have to get out and back home to participate in the defence.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Nov 4, 2024 22:48:35 GMT
Initial thoughts a) Mustafa Kemal had already had a pretty successful career militarily with a strong performance especially in the defence of eastern Libya during the war with Italy but he was still a relatively mid level officer who had also been noted as being anti-monarchist and seeking to de-politicize the army so it could be a bit of a call for him to have the influence to pull a coup off. Although if Polish influnce could confirm the British would return the ships after the war - which could now look quite a short conflict that would be an help.
b) There is some evidence that the Greeks had extensive plans for a pre-emptive war with Turkey before the ships were delivered as that would give the latter overwhelming naval superiority against the Balkan powers so if they hear the ships are going to be supplied that could trigger a Greek-Turkish conflict while the Greeks had naval superiority.
c) Not sure what the status of the straits was at this point as to whether ships of a belligerent power, especially one which doesn't have a port on the Black Sea could pass through. Although if they do their going to face limited choices. Their going to either end up scuttling the ships or face internment.
i) They might have gone to Romania because the king was German born although he's due to die shortly and the bulk of the political establishment is hostile to Austria - although that could be less important given Austria's agreed neutrality with Poland. Possibly thinking they could persuade the Romanians to support the anti-Bolshevik forces and seize Bessarabia.
ii) They could go to Bulgaria which might be considered more friendly as it was the losing power in the 2nd Balkan war and has issues with Serbia, although how a couple of warships isolated in the Black Sea could help Bulgaria in such a conflict would be unclear other than to possibly deter Romania or Turkey from joining such a conflict against Bulgaria.
iii) They could seek to 'join' the White forces in the Ukraine region. This might be more politically popular with a lot of the officers and could avoid them being interned within a short period of time. However their going to be isolated and largely devoid of any supplies. Can probably get fuel and food for the crews but ammo, spare parts and the like are going to be pretty much impossible so the ships are likely to deteriorate in combat ability over time fairly quickly. Also with the expectation of an early German defeat morale is going to be a big issue as many sailors especially are likely to want to return home and question why their fighting in a war that seems to have no relevance to them.
a) Also understand that he had been involved in a coup earlier and had some affiliates - its not just him but the Envoy at Warsaw see him as an important figure. Also read that Mustafa Kemal had a severe grudge on the Armenians due to their support of Russia which would lead to the Genocide.
b) Thanks - hmm well thats why they were inactive during the War waiting for the right oppotunity. There may still be a Greek - Turk War then.
c) I understand that the Romanian King wasn't adverse to a Central Powers alliance so that may be the trigger - also that that would be the shortest way home. If the Ottomans have been coup'd and not going to ally with Germany why sit down and wait it out. With Entente warships on the western side of the Straits lets go deprive the Turks of our ships nor letting the Entente have the joy of sinking them.
c too) No.
c three) They are still Imperial German Sailors - their countrys at war so they have to get out and back home to participate in the defence.
a) They hadn't actually done anything yet and its doubtful that there was any significant rebel activity during Envha Pasha's idiotic and disastrous campaign in the region in 1914-15 which was used as an excuse for the OTL genocide. Hopefully that can be avoided TTL but they might be even more vulnerable with Russia in chaos and the western powers attention elsewhere. Under the regime after WWI which he was a leading member of there were further massacres, especially of the Greeks but that could have been partly because of the Greek invasion after WWI. He took a harsh line with the mass deportations that followed the Greek defeat however.
b) I think the main issue that kept Greece inactive for the 1st couple of years was that the country was deeply divided between the monarchies and those who supported civilian government and the monarch was depending on the source either deeply committed to neutrality or strongly aligned with Germany. In terms of why they stayed quiet verses Turkey OTL was that the Turks weren't getting the ships and were fairly quickly involved in an alliance with the CPs. - Arguably a good time for Greece to join the allies but because of the internal differences they stayed neutral.
c) If they want to aid the war effort then, unless they had risked going west again and trying to reach the Austrians in the Adriatic or they are going to have to give up the ships, either scuttling them or having them interned. They can go overland to Germany via the Balkans and Austria to return home. Probably with the situation at the time Romania is the best option for this.
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575
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Post by 575 on Nov 5, 2024 9:06:13 GMT
Poland – and Japan
Marshal Pilsudski had wanted to let the Berliners starve to extinction but saner heads had him allow agricultural produce in the Polish controlled areas to be moved to Berlin though the Germans themselves would have to organize and set up measures.
Also the Silesian coal miners would be mining coal for the Berliners and Breslau'ers not to freeze during winter.
The prospect of the Germans under Polish rule faring better with a full belly and warm cosy livingroom while those under Imperial rule would starve and freeze appealed so much to Pilsudski that he damned himself for not being the one to come up with the idea.
Those Junkers still at their estates was extremely dissatisfied with the scheme claiming they would lose all. They were told to cooperate with the Mayors of the various cities under Polish control who would be supported by German police and Polish Borderguards if things would break down. Certainly Berlin had to be supplied.
The Junkers were furious but had to comply though they tried get the various Mayors to sign promissory notes so that the Junkers could get their money post war through legal action. Some mayors could see the plight of the Junkers others referred to the Polish decrees and the necessity of feeding their inhabitants and that the economic affairs be left to post-war.
Any surplus was allowed to be sold to Polish buyers. The Junkers would laugh at it but sneak off unseen to learn more of the possibilities.
The Silesian miners were happy to do something worthwhile instead of being called up for military service; helping your fellow man and woman much better than to shoot at them. The mining directors were also happy as was the various Burgermeister/Mayors as it freed them of keeping Police on alert should strikes of other unrest happen. Idle men are troublesome men!
At Königsberg the besieged 8. Army recieved orders for a hunger offensive – move out capture as much of the harvest as possible and get it to port and shipped off for Kiel.
Even v. Francois found it ridiculous wasting men but even more so ammunition for something that silly and short sighted but agreed for a show-off going.
Finland had been friendly enough to inform Poland that a German delegation had been around to buy all the agricultural produce it could which had also been the case in Denmark and Norway. The latter mainly going to deliver fish.
Denmark wouldn't cut back on the bacon, butter and eggs supplied to Britain but other pig produce, lard, beef and horses were to be delivered. Denmark had been insistant on getting returns of coal which the Germans had made much talk to not do but to little awail as the Danes also had to supply Sweden in no small way.
The Baltics also visited by the Germans were still at war with the Soviets though the Yudenich offensive had taken a lot off their shoulders at the moment. Having achived their objectives they were ready to talk business wanting rifle ammunition which the Germans couldn't spare and negotiations dragged on.
It seemed the Soviets were well fighting the offensives of Denikin and Yudenich; the latter because a huge British depot at Murmansk had been transported to St. Petersburg and used to fit out some new Guards units – units that had proven themselves in battle.
With the Poles out of play that part of the front was in less need more so important as almost all its units had disappeared because the new Polish borderline.
Admiral Kolchak had been able to hold onto the eastern parts of the Urals only because some Japanese Artillery instructors had arrived to teach his men the tricks of their much needed trade.
The IJN had been busy for the last two months ferrying IJA troops to Korea and Vladivostok.
The first to move into Manchuria to secure the rear of the second which were equipped upon arrival with the 1930's arms and provisions around for most of 70,000 troops.
Still the Japanese told the British that they weren't ready to assault Tsingtao and that the British contingent was much too small. The British on receiving this thought the Poles might be double crossing them but had no proof.
The Japanese also complained about being showed around by the British – if they were to capture those German island possessions they weren't being transporting troops to Tsingtao this month.
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575
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Post by 575 on Nov 6, 2024 11:34:32 GMT
China Station
The RN China Station had been bombarded with telegrammes about getting the Tsingsao operations going and finding and destroying the v. Spee Squadron.
The HMAS Australia group WAS combing the various island groups but the Pacific being huge it was no easy task.
Apparently v. Spee had decided to run things on his own and not use radio too much so as not to give away his whereabouts. There was however an upsurge in neutral shipping radiotraffic but that could also be related to the War situation and related difficulties. However perhaps v. Spee was using neutal callsigns?
German New Guinea and Bismarck Arqipelago had been invaded by the Australians and other southernly German possession by New Zealand. That occupied no small part of the RN in area as transports had to be protected and communications lines secured. The French were guarding their own islands and both were busy due to widely spread German bombardments of their colonial ports.
The HMAS Australia couldn't be left reacting to any small bombardment if the Germans should be neutralized but kept in a central position to react when the time seemed right.
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575
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Post by 575 on Nov 7, 2024 10:12:38 GMT
West Front
In France the German Right Wing had had its wings clipped by the Entente counter-offensive at the Marne and it had retreated to the Belgian border. The other four armies were slowly retreating towards the German border to hold it.
Besides sending several Corps off to face the Poles on the Elbe-Oder line the Armies in the West had seen little in form of replacements themselves.
The three Royal Army Commander had been quick making themselves available to the General Staff for service on the East front which the Emperor had happily agreed to – v. Molkte was less enthusiastic but didn't dare counter his Imperial Highness still hugely unsatisfied with v. Moltkes lack of guarding the eastern border in his war preparation. Citing v. Schlieffen only made matters worse as his proposed 6 weeks campaign in the West had run out.
Some on the General staff seemed to relish the situation though it was unusually busy due to the situation in the east.
The Polish were no fools – keeping their aircraft recconnoitering German movements and if not they did know where the German troops were going. No they couldn't have broken the ciphers.
With a defensive stance in the West the three Army Commander of the Right Wing had each been alotted an Army Group command to fill the void of the Royals.
Generaloberst Heeringen keeping command of his 7. Army in Alsace.
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575
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Post by 575 on Nov 9, 2024 20:40:04 GMT
October 1914/19/30
Pacific
v. Spee knew he had only one shot for it.
HMAS Australia was faster and its main guns outranged his by almost 8 km/5 mi. Of course hitting at such distances was a gamble for both sides but he had to get close and he did have a better secondary/tertiary battery then Australia.
His major drawback was that half his main guns and all secondary as well as most of the tertiary was in a central casemate limiting the number of guns that could be brought to bear.
His and his opponents ships were equally armoured but the longer range of the main battery of Australia made it a risky affair.
The factors against it was that he still had his base at Tsingtao but it would at some time be invested by the Entente and possibly Japanese. Staying there he would become a sitting duck though with the reported timeframe – which was unbelieveable but with the stories of the appeared Polish nothing seemed too impossible – of the Japanese they would only have pre-Dreadnoughts which his AC's would eat for breakfast!
Having raided the British and French Pacific possessions for almost three months his ships were in need of an overhaul they would only be able to get at Tsingtao.
Unknown to v. Spee the Japanese prioritizing Machuria and Sibiria had put a spanner in the works for the British. Still wanting to neutralize Tsingtao and v. Spee's base but lacking the numbers of troops and with v. Spee running around the central and south Pacific the RN had been on the defensive protecting the Australian and New Zealand advances into German colonies and waiting for the chance to trap him.
Deciding to go to Tsingtao but maintaining radio silence and having instructed his ships captains to do so he started moving towards China and friendly port.
During this his flagship received a signal from Imperial German Navy Staff regarding his whereabouts and plans and asking for reception of signal. A tired wireless operator punched the morse key ”acknowledged” and delivered the signal to v. Spee.
Reading through it v. Spee noticed the acknowledment request and asked the Wireless Operator - ”I was tired Herr Admiral, it was a reflex..”
A few hours following the RN received a telegramme from Poland informing it of the latest possible position of v. Spee.
Relieved of its suspecion of Polish doublecrossing the HMAS Australia and its screen of Destroyers and light Cruisers set the course to use its superior speed to finally bag the German East Asia Squadron.
Intercepted at sea a lucky long range hit on the Gneisenau penetrated the armoured deck exploding in the 21cm magazine blowing up the ship which left HMAS Australia to concentrate on the Scharnhorst sinking it too.
The three light cruisers were sunk by Australias screen though a RN light cruiser was also sunk.
With the naval threat removed the British asked to Japanese to get going on Tsingtao – the German Marianas, Marshalls and Carolinas would be up for the taker. Besides Tsingtao the Japanese only got the Marianas.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Nov 10, 2024 0:25:10 GMT
October 1914/19/30 Pacific v. Spee knew he had only one shot for it. HMAS Australia was faster and its main guns outranged his by almost 8 km/5 mi. Of course hitting at such distances was a gamble for both sides but he had to get close and he did have a better secondary/tertiary battery then Australia. His major drawback was that half his main guns and all secondary as well as most of the tertiary was in a central casemate limiting the number of guns that could be brought to bear. His and his opponents ships were equally armoured but the longer range of the main battery of Australia made it a risky affair. The factors against it was that he still had his base at Tsingtao but it would at some time be invested by the Entente and possibly Japanese. Staying there he would become a sitting duck though with the reported timeframe – which was unbelieveable but with the stories of the appeared Polish nothing seemed too impossible – of the Japanese they would only have pre-Dreadnoughts which his AC's would eat for breakfast! Having raided the British and French Pacific possessions for almost three months his ships were in need of an overhaul they would only be able to get at Tsingtao. Unknown to v. Spee the Japanese prioritizing Machuria and Sibiria had put a spanner in the works for the British. Still wanting to neutralize Tsingtao and v. Spee's base but lacking the numbers of troops and with v. Spee running around the central and south Pacific the RN had been on the defensive protecting the Australian and New Zealand advances into German colonies and waiting for the chance to trap him. Deciding to go to Tsingtao but maintaining radio silence and having instructed his ships captains to do so he started moving towards China and friendly port. During this his flagship received a signal from Imperial German Navy Staff regarding his whereabouts and plans and asking for reception of signal. A tired wireless operator punched the morse key ”acknowledged” and delivered the signal to v. Spee. Reading through it v. Spee noticed the acknowledment request and asked the Wireless Operator - ”I was tired Herr Admiral, it was a reflex..” A few hours following the RN received a telegramme from Poland informing it of the latest possible position of v. Spee. Relieved of its suspecion of Polish doublecrossing the HMAS Australia and its screen of Destroyers and light Cruisers set the course to use its superior speed to finally bag the German East Asia Squadron. Intercepted at sea a lucky long range hit on the Gneisenau penetrated the armoured deck exploding in the 21cm magazine blowing up the ship which left HMAS Australia to concentrate on the Scharnhorst sinking it too. The three light cruisers were sunk by Australias screen though a RN light cruiser was also sunk. With the naval threat removed the British asked to Japanese to get going on Tsingtao – the German Marianas, Marshalls and Carolinas would be up for the taker. Besides Tsingtao the Japanese only got the Marianas.
Good for the allies and the Japanese have gained less territory in the west Pacific but will probably be far more interested in the territory its gaining influence or direct control of in mainland China. Also what is the status of Korea here? OTL it was annexed by Japan in 1910 so is it also from 1904 - as part of the Japanese empire being taken back - or from 1914 as part of Korea that wasn't moved? A bit surprised that the battle was so complete but that early fatal strike on Gneisenau was decisive.
One thing with Japan a decade behind the rest of the world and with a much shorter WWI I can't see Japan, at least in the short term, becoming the naval power it did OTL. If there's some equivalent of the Washington Naval Treaty Japan isn't going to get a 60% ration of Britain and the USA's tonnage while other powers would have more say.
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575
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Post by 575 on Nov 10, 2024 8:29:55 GMT
October 1914/19/30 Pacific v. Spee knew he had only one shot for it. HMAS Australia was faster and its main guns outranged his by almost 8 km/5 mi. Of course hitting at such distances was a gamble for both sides but he had to get close and he did have a better secondary/tertiary battery then Australia. His major drawback was that half his main guns and all secondary as well as most of the tertiary was in a central casemate limiting the number of guns that could be brought to bear. His and his opponents ships were equally armoured but the longer range of the main battery of Australia made it a risky affair. The factors against it was that he still had his base at Tsingtao but it would at some time be invested by the Entente and possibly Japanese. Staying there he would become a sitting duck though with the reported timeframe – which was unbelieveable but with the stories of the appeared Polish nothing seemed too impossible – of the Japanese they would only have pre-Dreadnoughts which his AC's would eat for breakfast! Having raided the British and French Pacific possessions for almost three months his ships were in need of an overhaul they would only be able to get at Tsingtao. Unknown to v. Spee the Japanese prioritizing Machuria and Sibiria had put a spanner in the works for the British. Still wanting to neutralize Tsingtao and v. Spee's base but lacking the numbers of troops and with v. Spee running around the central and south Pacific the RN had been on the defensive protecting the Australian and New Zealand advances into German colonies and waiting for the chance to trap him. Deciding to go to Tsingtao but maintaining radio silence and having instructed his ships captains to do so he started moving towards China and friendly port. During this his flagship received a signal from Imperial German Navy Staff regarding his whereabouts and plans and asking for reception of signal. A tired wireless operator punched the morse key ”acknowledged” and delivered the signal to v. Spee. Reading through it v. Spee noticed the acknowledment request and asked the Wireless Operator - ”I was tired Herr Admiral, it was a reflex..” A few hours following the RN received a telegramme from Poland informing it of the latest possible position of v. Spee. Relieved of its suspecion of Polish doublecrossing the HMAS Australia and its screen of Destroyers and light Cruisers set the course to use its superior speed to finally bag the German East Asia Squadron. Intercepted at sea a lucky long range hit on the Gneisenau penetrated the armoured deck exploding in the 21cm magazine blowing up the ship which left HMAS Australia to concentrate on the Scharnhorst sinking it too. The three light cruisers were sunk by Australias screen though a RN light cruiser was also sunk. With the naval threat removed the British asked to Japanese to get going on Tsingtao – the German Marianas, Marshalls and Carolinas would be up for the taker. Besides Tsingtao the Japanese only got the Marianas.
Good for the allies and the Japanese have gained less territory in the west Pacific but will probably be far more interested in the territory its gaining influence or direct control of in mainland China. Also what is the status of Korea here? OTL it was annexed by Japan in 1910 so is it also from 1904 - as part of the Japanese empire being taken back - or from 1914 as part of Korea that wasn't moved? A bit surprised that the battle was so complete but that early fatal strike on Gneisenau was decisive.
One thing with Japan a decade behind the rest of the world and with a much shorter WWI I can't see Japan, at least in the short term, becoming the naval power it did OTL. If there's some equivalent of the Washington Naval Treaty Japan isn't going to get a 60% ration of Britain and the USA's tonnage while other powers would have more say.
Korea is of 1904 so of limited Japanese control 4 August 1914 - diplomatic legation etc. Japan have gotten more than it bargained for and will pop up again during October posts that is coming.
I didn't want to do a copy of Falklands Is 1914 here hence the change and rather swift undoing of the German fleet.
ITTL the IJN will be the smaller brother to the IJA - good or bad? It will take quite an effort to build it up to 1914 standards and now Japan have another direction of interest.
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575
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Post by 575 on Nov 10, 2024 8:31:02 GMT
October 1914/19/30
West Front
The three German Army Groups in the West, 1. in the North, 2. Center - Ardennes, 3. Lorraine and 7. Army Vosges held on to their positions despite Entente pressure in the north the BEF, French 5. Army and Belgian Army, in the center the French 4. and 3. Armies and in the southern part French 2., 1. and Army of Alsace.
The German commanders had succeeded in not sending more than 7 Corps east following the initial during August of 4 Corps thus keeping 26 Corps on the frontline or Army Group reserves.
Terrain in the Center and South served the defenders well while the more flat Flanders and central Belgium was another matter hence the 1. Army Group being the largest.
There had been some well timed Entente offensives especially the one following the last ceding of troops for the east when the French 4. and 3. Armies were able to advance further into the Ardennes actually threatening to cut the logistics lines of 1. Army Group by getting into 10 km's distance of the River Maas/Meuse south of Liege.
The German General Staff had actually been in contact with the Dutch Commander to get a permission to withdraw through Maastricht should it be necessary. However before negotiations would finish the danger had been averted and 1 Army Group had retreated behind the Maas/Meuse in the process the other two Army Groups had shifted south actually being able to pull 7. Army out of the line to keep in Front Reserve.
When finally finding out both Emperor William and General v. Moltke were furious of the silence on 7. Army new positions and demanding its being moved East.
Minister of War General v. Falkenhayn had wisely stuck to his post not interfering in the heated exchange at highest leadership level.
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