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Post by raharris1973 on Oct 5, 2024 3:12:41 GMT
What if *all* Iberia & the Balearic Islands & the Macaronesian island chains from the Atlantic, plus the latterly Portuguese discovered island chains of the South Atlantic like Cape Verde, São Tomé and Principe and Fernando Poo from 582 AD were ISOT into the world of 1482 AD? Additionally, everywhere in 1482 AD on the African continent where the Portuguese held shore establishments forts, towns, cities or even Padraos or marker stones, that spot of ground is replaced by its 582 AD equivalent. In Europe, where the impact is largest, the impact on the map is this: www.flickr.com/photos/22187058@N03/54018175848/lightbox/ In place of Renaissance Europe of 1482's expected Iberian neighbors of Navarre, Aragon, Castille, Portugal, and Granada, Iberia now consists of disorganized Basque lands, the Suevi Kingdom over roughly Galicia, the Visigothic Kingdom over central Spain and Portugal, and the Byzantine/ERE over southeastern Spain and the Balearics. The replaced islands in the Atlantic in their 582 version are all reverted to uninhabited or unconnected native control, and the replaced African points are reverted to pockets of 582 native control. As of 1482, Portugal had made some considerable progress exploring down the west coast of Africa, and had started importing products and slaves from there, and spreading an uncertain degree of knowledge of this geography elsewhere in Europe. Still, its progress was limited, it was about to report back the discovery of the mouth of the Congo river that year. Important to be sure, but in a way, disappointing, because this period of exploration showed Africa turning south again instead of west-east and offering immediate hope of an open water route to India. This map illustrates by year, Portuguese progress down Africa. kids.britannica.com/kids/assembly/view/216852With the sudden disappearance of the Iberian states of the renaissance, the two then leaders of Atlantic exploration, and their replacement by their dark ages equivalents, what is the outlook in the fifty to hundred years ahead after 1482 for Atlantic exploration from Europe? Just as important, and more quickly, what is the outlook for European politics with the sudden substitution of a dark ages Iberia with military and agricultural technology 900 years out of date, quite possibly suffering from some plague of Justinian, that is in no shape to be a threat to the Islamic states of North Africa or the Mediterranean, nor to be a competitor of France in Italy or anywhere, and with highly limited ability to defend itself from uptime forces?
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Post by raharris1973 on Oct 10, 2024 15:51:56 GMT
It's pretty clear that the Age of Discovery in the Atlantic has gone, cut off sharply. Henceforth emphasis will be on fishing in the North Atlantic. Newfoundland will be the first part of the New World to be (re)discovered eventually.
There will be some memory of the Portuguese idea that you can reach the fabelled Orient by sailing south and round Africa. But supposing the superstition grows up that the Portuguese - now sent down to Hell - actually caused the cataclysm by sailing south of Cape Bojador? No one will want to go that way for a very long time. And as for suggestions by a crazy Genoese that you can sail straight across the Atlantic - forget it. Meanwhile Madeira and the Azores are empty, there for the taking. France? England? Whoever takes them will be in pole position for when superstition subsides. And interestingly the Canary Islands are now inhabited exclusively by their aboriginal imhabitants, Guanches etc.
A significant delay to the use of the "Vasco Da Gama" route could spare Western Africa the oceanic slave trade for awhile and much of the Americas (like South America) the devastation of European contact for awhile.
Also, the states of the Indian Ocean littoral continue to control their own commerce.
If no Europeans, for instance Frenchmen (I'd make them the leading candidates, but English could do it too, so could others) pull off the around the African Cape to India and back again armed trading trip until 1605, over that time the Ottomans will not have a "rear front" against Christians to worry about, nor will other Islamic states of the Swahili coast, Oman, Persia, India have to face superior western ships and gunnery. Indeed, the Swahili coast or Malagasy peoples could expand further south along the east coast of Africa, perhaps creating settlements at the southern Cape of Africa by the time Europeans arrive there. This would also mean it would take longer for westerners to approach China or the Indies by sea routes.
The hundred year delay to routine trade around Africa to the Indian Ocean and Far East keeps spices more expensive longer and reduces cross-pollination of European and eastern gun designs, and the development of Japanese western-learning, paranoia about Christianity and Sakoku.
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Post by raharris1973 on Oct 10, 2024 16:11:10 GMT
It's pretty clear that the Age of Discovery in the Atlantic has gone, cut off sharply. Henceforth emphasis will be on fishing in the North Atlantic. Newfoundland will be the first part of the New World to be (re)discovered eventually. Which will be yielding fish, but no bonanzas of gold or agricultural land or native labor, so could it easily just lead to a slow expansion of the European understanding of the size of the "islands" to the west in the Atlantic. So Europe could get well into the ubiquitous spread of printed works, the Reformation, religious warfare, the Counter-Reformation, Habsburg-Valois wars, the waxing Ottoman threat to Central Europe, and scientific (astronomical, anatomical, optical, medical, mathematical) developments of the 1500s and (the first half of the) 1600s before the full extent of the American continents are mapped out by Europeans, the Indian Ocean routes to the far east are mapped by the Europeans, and trades by those oceanic routes become commonplace. In America Newfoundland and Labrador and Nova Scotia can host small fishing camps in the early 1500s, turning into year round settlements by mid-century, with some fishermen or traders going further up or down the west coast, but nobody finding fabulous wealth to spur yet further exploration or royal conquests, expeditions or land claims. In the 1600s, opportunity and market demand may be enough for some people at some of these coastal settlements to try out trading for furs and selling them at a mark-up, which will attract more European participants to northeast North America. Perhaps by the 1620s or 1630s, enough fishermen and fur-trappers good at drawing or writing will have passed through the eastern seaboard and northeast North America to note the utility of the land, its suitability for living, and the drastic emptying of natives, just as religious eccentrics in England and Europe may be getting dissatisfied enough to be contemplate building a "city on a hill" in the wilderness, away from more 'corrupt' environments. In this manner, something like New England colonies comes into being *before* Mexican mining colonies or Caribbean slave colonies, or tidewater tobacco tobacco colonies, even as the American tropics are mysterious and obscure. By the later 1600s, improvements in ship technology and scientific curiosity and commercial development, end up making curiosity insatiable for further mapping out the American coasts, leading to the discoveries of Mesoamerica, the Caribbean, Peru, the African Cape and Indian Ocean trade, the first circumnavigation by the early 1700s. The English starting from New England may have an early lead but the French and others may end up taking part in conquests at more southern latitudes, which will only then introduce great quantities of gold and silver to Europe, and crops like the tomato, cacao bean, maize and potato. This will be around the same time Russia reaches the Pacific and borders China. The delay in this has a huge global economic, epidemiological, and nutritional, and balance of power effect however. Delay of increased sugar intake in Europe and Eurasia. Delay of rum consumption globally. Delay of the spread of tomatoes and potatoes, even more than maize - this will make the religious wars in northern Europe in Germany and Ireland less survivable. Maize *might* get imported from northeast USA. But these New World crops won't get exported to the Far East and as much of Africa, resulting in less population growth there*, as well as Europe, while untouched parts of the western hemisphere have less population loss during the delay. Spain is cash poorer short-term, as is Europe as a whole, and even China, but this also puts off any inflationary hangovers in the Old World. Chocolate and tobacco are introduced later to western palates. *although for Africa, lesser population growth is being offset by lesser population loss from slave trade for one to two centuries.
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Post by raharris1973 on Oct 10, 2024 16:13:11 GMT
In Europe, France is well positioned to expanded into Iberia, at least the north, and also to exert influence in Italy, being unopposed by Spaniards of its own age. Although, the Neapolitan Trastamaras won't give up their position without a hard fight.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Oct 10, 2024 18:22:36 GMT
In Europe, France is well positioned to expanded into Iberia, at least the north, and also to exert influence in Italy, being unopposed by Spaniards of its own age. Although, the Neapolitan Trastamaras won't give up their position without a hard fight.
France has potentials, especially in the now backward Iberia but that will prompt opposition from the HRE and England especially as they won't want France to get too strong. Possibly also, although they might not last long the Muslim's of NW Africa might seek to regain Granada and other lands in the south.
What will happen to the up-time Spanish ruled lands in central Europe as their pretty rich and important. Given their location they might well end up as parts of the HRE although in turn that would be opposed by some other nations.
On your other comments the loss of the Iberian lands would be a big blow and a delay in the discovery of the Americas and the route to the Indian Ocean would markedly weaken western Christianity which is in the following decades to be seriously stressed by Ottoman expansion. Compounded if the turmoil followed the POD means more infighting.
However I doubt it would delay the discovery of the Americas by a century and once that occurs a lot of things will follow. There will be a mass death scenario simply because of diseases being introduced no matter how whoever does the discovery treats the locals. However if it comes from the far north - via Newfoundland and neighbouring areas - it will take time to travel to the main cultures in central and southern America. if that is still faster than Europeans moving south - which could be the case given that other than the fish of the Grand Banks the region could look barren and worth little further exploration, especially if it seems very thinly populated. However the idea of finding out what's further south is likely to prompt people exploring faster than the landward spread of assorted pandemics so I would expect the main cultural centres to still be devastated with European control following on fairly rapidly.
You make an interesting point about a religious reaction to this 'act of god' possibly deterring exploration down the African coastline. However, especially given the region is one of the most devoutly Christian - with the conquest of Granada by "his most Catholic Majesty" what would be the impact on religion and especially with some possible reformation in the near future? Is there a standing together behind the Papacy on response or more doubt and hence greater division.
For England what happens with the recently established Tudor dynasty? Does Prince Arthur still die, leading his younger brother becoming Henry VIII? There will be no Catherine of Aragon in this scenario, nor an equivalent to Charles V as Iberia will be a backwater and the Hapsburg dynasty won't be prominent there so a hell of a lot of butterflies here.
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Post by raharris1973 on Oct 10, 2024 20:16:18 GMT
What will happen to the up-time Spanish ruled lands in central Europe as their pretty rich and important. There were not any such in central or Northern Europe - yet, as of 1492, but as of 1477 the Netherlands and Franche-Comte, formerly Burgundian, had been inherited by the Austrian Habsburgs. In southern Europe, the same family that ruled Aragon, the Trastamaras, also ruled Naples and Sicily through a different branch. the Hapsburg dynasty won't be prominent They won't be prominent in Iberia, but they'll have Austria, Netherlands and inside track for the HRE Crown, and every generation they were putting down marriage bets on the Hungarian and Bohemian Crowns, so they'd had European importance. Correct that disease will hit all parts of the Americas when all parts get explored.
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Post by stevep on Oct 10, 2024 21:02:36 GMT
What will happen to the up-time Spanish ruled lands in central Europe as their pretty rich and important. There were not any such in central or Northern Europe - yet, as of 1492, but as of 1477 the Netherlands and Franche-Comte, formerly Burgundian, had been inherited by the Austrian Habsburgs. In southern Europe, the same family that ruled Aragon, the Trastamaras, also ruled Naples and Sicily through a different branch. the Hapsburg dynasty won't be prominent They won't be prominent in Iberia, but they'll have Austria, Netherlands and inside track for the HRE Crown, and every generation they were putting down marriage bets on the Hungarian and Bohemian Crowns, so they'd had European importance. Correct that disease will hit all parts of the Americas when all parts get explored.
Ha I sit corrected. That makes the Hapsburg position in central Europe even more powerful as those are some rich lands. OTL the Dutch rebellion, which started against what they deemed oppressive rule was against the more Catholic Spanish monarchy and that might have prompted the religious swing towards Calvinism during the reformation. The German Hapsburg's seem to have been more moderate, both in terms of religion and regional policy and their culturally much more similar so TTL its possible that it might be resolved without either a prolonged and expensive conflict or becoming a focus of the religious conflict that is likely to emerge. Coupled with possible changes in England any clear 'Protestant' rebellion against Papal power could be significantly less powerful. Or alternatively might become a focus for rebellion against the Papacy by the empire possibly? A lot could change here in multiple directions.
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