Post by ewellholmes on Sept 25, 2024 19:45:52 GMT
In the Draka timeline, by April of 1944 both the Domination and the United States had completed their atomic programs and went to immediate usage:
The development of the American nuclear force and it's use in degrading the offensive potential of the IJN was a game changer, as it blunted the previous Drakan threat to align with the Japanese in the event of the Alliance for Democracy making a peace deal with the Europeans in December of 1942:
With the recent liberation of Hawaii from the IJA and now with the IJN having almost half of its remaining carriers destroyed, the U.S. and UK could thus take the risk of starting covert, deniable aid to the Europeans. However, they could not go much beyond that because, while the Japanese had been degraded, they had not yet been defeated and remained in control of Northern Australasia as well as the American States in the Philippines; the Alliance for Democracy could thus not yet risk the Draka making good on their threat. It would take until December of 1944 in the cannon timeline for this to change with the decisive defeat of the Japanese in the sea battles for the Philippines, by which point the Pan-Europeans were on the ropes:
So, the PoD here is clear: What if both missiles, instead of just one, work as intended and the main Japanese fleet is destroyed at Truk in April of 1944?
For one, in the Pacific, this would obviously accelerate the Alliance for Democracy's ability to liberate occupied areas from the Japanese, since their combined fleets now have unquestionable control of the Pacific. By late 1943, Allied submarines had already sunk 40% of Japan's merchant tonnage, so their ability to replace their fleet losses is non-existent and the economic strangulation of Japan will be further accelerated. More importantly, however, is that this would remove any remaining substance to the Drakan threat to support the Japanese. The Alliance for Democracy could thus conclude a peace treaty with the Europeans, and thus move towards formal and direct military aid (Perhaps...Lend Lease lol?) for their embattled forces.
So, what do you all think would happen?
1944 -Taos Project detonates first fission bomb (plutonium, shaped-charge implosion type, 40 kilotonnes) on February 1st, in New Mexico. First Draka test (uranium bomb, two sub-critical masses) March 4, in central Sahara. Both countries begin work on series production, fission weapons.
April: Draka jet bombers deliver five-weapon nuclear strike against Ruhr valley, Brussels. Conventional offensive smashes through to Rhine; amphibious landings in southern Spain are contained in narrow beachheads. Last resistance in Berlin eliminated. Emergency pan-European fission project unsuccessful, due to uranium and heavy-water shortages. Mass flight of refugees from western Germany to France, Belgium. Famine in Central Europe. Covert Anglo-American aid to Europeans.
Two nuclear-armed cruise missiles fired from Alliance submarines against main Japanese fleet in lagoon of Truk island, central Pacific. One malfunctions; the other destroys three of the seven remaining Japanese fleet carriers and much else besides. Alliance offensives continue across Pacific and north from Indonesia.
April: Draka jet bombers deliver five-weapon nuclear strike against Ruhr valley, Brussels. Conventional offensive smashes through to Rhine; amphibious landings in southern Spain are contained in narrow beachheads. Last resistance in Berlin eliminated. Emergency pan-European fission project unsuccessful, due to uranium and heavy-water shortages. Mass flight of refugees from western Germany to France, Belgium. Famine in Central Europe. Covert Anglo-American aid to Europeans.
Two nuclear-armed cruise missiles fired from Alliance submarines against main Japanese fleet in lagoon of Truk island, central Pacific. One malfunctions; the other destroys three of the seven remaining Japanese fleet carriers and much else besides. Alliance offensives continue across Pacific and north from Indonesia.
The development of the American nuclear force and it's use in degrading the offensive potential of the IJN was a game changer, as it blunted the previous Drakan threat to align with the Japanese in the event of the Alliance for Democracy making a peace deal with the Europeans in December of 1942:
Hitler dies—officially of heart attack, actually poisoned by agents of Admiral Canaris, head of German Military Intelligence. Coalition government of military, Nazi party, SS and anti-nazi conservatives takes power, with Herman Goering as Chancellor. ("Fuhrer" is declared a unique position which only the inspired Adolf Hitler could bear.) New regime promises increased autonomy for west Europeans (although persecution of Jews continues as quid pro quo for unreconstructed Nazi elements) and calls on all Europeans to rally to Germany for defense against the Draka, sends peace feelers to U.S. and Britain. Domination secretly threatens to ally with Japan if Western powers make a separate peace with Germany. America and U.K. remain technically at war with Third Reich. Indian National Congress takes power in India, declares independence and neutrality.
With the recent liberation of Hawaii from the IJA and now with the IJN having almost half of its remaining carriers destroyed, the U.S. and UK could thus take the risk of starting covert, deniable aid to the Europeans. However, they could not go much beyond that because, while the Japanese had been degraded, they had not yet been defeated and remained in control of Northern Australasia as well as the American States in the Philippines; the Alliance for Democracy could thus not yet risk the Draka making good on their threat. It would take until December of 1944 in the cannon timeline for this to change with the decisive defeat of the Japanese in the sea battles for the Philippines, by which point the Pan-Europeans were on the ropes:
December: Tokyo destroyed by cruise missile from Alliance submarine; Imperial family and most high government officials killed, casualties exceed 150,000. New government of fanatical younger officers takes power, vows revenge. Widespread starvation in Japan as imports cut off; 80% of merchant tonnage sunk. Most remaining naval units destroyed in Battle of Philippines. Japanese control now limited to Siberia, eastern China, Korea and the home islands.
1945 -January–March: Sweden surrenders, Norway, Netherlands occupied by Draka; Finland and Switzerland isolated for future attention. Pyrenees forced after blitz with remaining stockpile (12) of fission weapons wipes out major concentrations of Euro-Spanish forces, communication centers etc. Spain overrun. Massive shift of Draka forces to Far East begins by rail and airship. Europe from the Urals to the Atlantic, from North Cape to Gibraltar, is under Draka occupation—also devastated and starving. The Draka forces are thinly stretched, concentrating on the main cities and lines of communication. Hundreds of thousands of refugees, armed fragments of European armies and followers of dozens of political and nationalistic movements are drifting, regrouping and beginning active resistance, only momentarily cowed by the psychological impact of nuclear weapons.
Alliance forces occupy Taiwan and Hainan. Widespread revolt in areas of China occupied by Japanese; Peking largely destroyed in reprisals. Kyushu invaded, occupied at cost of 250,000 Alliance dead. Osaka destroyed by Alliance fission bomb.
1945 -January–March: Sweden surrenders, Norway, Netherlands occupied by Draka; Finland and Switzerland isolated for future attention. Pyrenees forced after blitz with remaining stockpile (12) of fission weapons wipes out major concentrations of Euro-Spanish forces, communication centers etc. Spain overrun. Massive shift of Draka forces to Far East begins by rail and airship. Europe from the Urals to the Atlantic, from North Cape to Gibraltar, is under Draka occupation—also devastated and starving. The Draka forces are thinly stretched, concentrating on the main cities and lines of communication. Hundreds of thousands of refugees, armed fragments of European armies and followers of dozens of political and nationalistic movements are drifting, regrouping and beginning active resistance, only momentarily cowed by the psychological impact of nuclear weapons.
Alliance forces occupy Taiwan and Hainan. Widespread revolt in areas of China occupied by Japanese; Peking largely destroyed in reprisals. Kyushu invaded, occupied at cost of 250,000 Alliance dead. Osaka destroyed by Alliance fission bomb.
So, the PoD here is clear: What if both missiles, instead of just one, work as intended and the main Japanese fleet is destroyed at Truk in April of 1944?
For one, in the Pacific, this would obviously accelerate the Alliance for Democracy's ability to liberate occupied areas from the Japanese, since their combined fleets now have unquestionable control of the Pacific. By late 1943, Allied submarines had already sunk 40% of Japan's merchant tonnage, so their ability to replace their fleet losses is non-existent and the economic strangulation of Japan will be further accelerated. More importantly, however, is that this would remove any remaining substance to the Drakan threat to support the Japanese. The Alliance for Democracy could thus conclude a peace treaty with the Europeans, and thus move towards formal and direct military aid (Perhaps...Lend Lease lol?) for their embattled forces.
So, what do you all think would happen?
