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Post by raharris1973 on Sept 7, 2024 21:06:04 GMT
An ASB ISOTs the Americas, North and South, and the Carribean and offshore islands like Falklands, Newfoundland, Canadian Arctic from 1752 to the wider world 1452 at Christmastime.
I think 1752 is particularly interesting time to grab the Americas from, because itis as late as possible before the last French and Indian War, where there is still a New France, to add to the diversity of the Americas, but the 13 colonies are maximally developed with many founding generation Anglo-American figures already around and some are young adults. Anglo-America, New Spain and Spanish South America, and Brazil are all well established, but not world-beating powers by any means, nor industrialized.
The wider world of 1452, of 300 years prior, is an interesting world to go back to. It is more primitive than the Americas, in a late medieval and early renaissance phase, but not vastly more primitive in technology of daily living, but certainly big differences in weapons and navigation. There are quite vast differences in religious and political assumptions, geographical knowledge and regional and global trade. Europe was bursting with proto-modern activity however. It was recovering from the Black Plague and undergoing the print revolution from about 1440 in Germany and Italy, and 1453 was marked by two epoch-defining political events, the end of the Anglo-French Hundred Years War, and the fall of Constantinople to the Ottoman Turks, while ever bolder Portuguese maritime expeditions kept exploring further down the western African coast.
I imagine after the *event* the first encounters between hemispheres would be between New England merchant ships (or British ships in New England) voyaging to England and finding England, but a foreign England, because it is the England of 300 years prior, and "they do things differently there" as the quote goes....notably religion, which is Catholic and loyal to the Pope. If they'd planned any stops in Irish ports on the way, they would notice changes even sooner, possibly encountering pure Gaelic speakers on the west side of the island. Alternatively, English fishermen from Newfoundland or fur traders from the Hudson Bay, or French fishermen from Newfie waters or St. Pierre might be the first to make it back to the old continent, and surprise it, and stand a good chance of getting locked up for telling tall tales, or learning to keep their mouth shut after a bit. Encounter from other places further south would eventually follow. Brazil to Africa, Cape Verde, Madeira or Portugal, eventually Cuba to Spain.
How does the meeting of the hemispheres and their interaction in terms of trade, disease, flora and fauna, the world of religion and ideas, technology go? How does their mutual politics and foreign policy go, especially between western hemisphere countries and their nominal mother countries like New England/Virginia - England, New France - recovering France, New Spain, Cuba, New Granada - Castille, Brazil - Portugal, Dutch Caribbean and the Netherlandish counties of the HRE, Danish West Indies and Denmark, end up going?
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Post by raharris1973 on Oct 4, 2024 13:08:14 GMT
Is there a chance that in a few decades, though tech leakage, any tech advantage North Americans have is lost, and old world monarchies are in shape to eye new world territories hungrily?
And that the English colonies, as the only Protestant lands in an otherwise Catholic world, are heavily besieged on all sides by uptime and downtime Catholic opponents?
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Oct 9, 2024 18:22:17 GMT
I think a lot would depend on how the non-English colonies in the Americas react when they discover the change.
While their still Catholic its a distinctly different religion in many ways and also the Spanish ones don't really have a kingdom to relate to. Also while the politically dominant groups in the Spanish colonies were the 'peninsula' Spanish, i.e. those coming across from Spain itself not only would they have little connection with the kings and lords of Castile and Aragorn. Also their a relatively tiny group out-numbered by a large group of Spanish born in the colonies, in turn outnumbered by the mixed race populations and with large numbers who are natives. As such there could be many groups who could feel their better off going their own way rather than submitting to an alien Spanish state.
If there is division inside the Spanish and possibly also the French colonies then its going to be difficult for the old world to establish itself in the near future - at least not for decades. They simply have too little technology and background knowledge of trans-Atlantic travel and the geography and culture of those 'colonies'. Also another factor is that the Americas have a lot of goods that would be popular in the old world and many local rulers and commanders are likely to see their better off controlling the sale of those items to Europe rather than having a large amount possibly taken as tribune by the rulers.
The only locations likely to desire outside support would be the plantation areas, which are mainly Caribbean islands, especially the small ones with tiny European populations ruling massively larger numbers of slaves. Their however more likely to look to larger neighbouring colonies of similar national identity than to distant Europe.
I don't think disease would be a major factor as the main die offs have already occurred and other than in fairly isolated inland areas, largely I believe in N America which are still vulnerable.
If the English colonies don't get mobbed by the rest then their likely to develop the most rapidly as they had a steadily growing population, a relatively stable population rather than the deeply socially and culturally divided ones of the other colonies. Possibly especially since slavery is not as important in this region as in some parts of the Spanish and Portuguese colonies and this could be reduced further with a reduced market for them in Europe.
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Post by raharris1973 on Oct 10, 2024 3:55:26 GMT
Possibly especially since slavery is not as important in this region as in some parts of the Spanish and Portuguese colonies and this could be reduced further with a reduced market for them in Europe.
I could imagine Mexico, Brazil, and Peru having to build merchant fleets up to some level, or purchase ships from New England yards, in order to "push" their valuable commodities, gold, silver, sugar, brazilwood, chocolate, onto the world market, in a situation of more primitive European merchant marines. In the mid-1400s, they might all find the best customers in Ming Dynasty China, India, the Timurid empire, more than Europe. If the English colonies don't get mobbed by the rest then their likely to develop the most rapidly as they had a steadily growing population, a relatively stable population rather than the deeply socially and culturally divided ones of the other colonies. I do not think the English colonies on the American mainland can really get mobbed by the colonies of other countries without old world reinforcement manpower. The English Atlantic coast colonies, especially New England, already have a big population advantage over the neighboring French colonies, despite the good Indian alliances and fighting skills of the latter. Downtime Metropolitan France is only just shaking off would-be English conquerors. The way you describe the Spanish colonies of the Americas and its social groups, not to mention old world downtime Spain, does not make them sound like a very cohesive force ready to "mob" the Atlantic coast English colonies either. If Spanish America were united in the enterprise as one, they could overpower the colonies with population and resources, but that is not what it looks like. Though, to be be fair, Mexico at this time was under one of its better Viceroys, the first Count of Revillagigedo, who had a long, capable tenure, and the individual colonies, without meaningful mother country support, will probably have to really raise their teamwork game to survive. English colonial outposts on the Central and South American mainland, like British Honduras, Miskito coast, Guyana ---those could get mobbed by forces from New Spain or New Granada. Though Jamaica could hold for awhile through a cohesive local planter regime and international trade, it could be vulnerable to a New Spain-Cuban alliance that foments servile troubles while posing a naval threat. |
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Post by 575 on Oct 10, 2024 9:14:37 GMT
Regarding the Danish West Indies - these were still mainly a private enterprise at this moment the Danish West Indies - Guenuese Company. It would only 1754 become a National operation still I'd guess due to the heavy traffic of Mechantmen with cane suger and war between England and France looming there may well be at least a small Navy vessel - Frigate, Sloop or some such on station at the three islands.
The population - the planters were however mainly non-Danes of the other groups of Nations having their own Caribbean colonies. There would be a small garrison on each island or a central one at St. Croix which was the main sugar producing island. St. Thomas had the major harbour and "Capital city" which became a Caribbean trading hub; its volcanic soil had been depleated early on. St. Jan produced Tobacco, Cotton and Sugar.
Population 1755: 14,977 slaves, 1,841 white and freedmen - probably not much less during 1752. Ofc the slavepopulation was dependant upon fresh "supplies" from Africa!
The slaves of St. Jan had 1733 rebelled and controlled the entire island which lasted 8 months before the Company and Planters with French military assistance regained control. 1759 another rebellion was brewing at St. Croix - the main suger producing island.
The major value of the Danish colony will be knowledge of trans-oceanic sailing though scurvy still haven't been introduced in the Navies and the Danish King fighting to preserve the Kalmar Union may well like a steady import of Caribbean Sugar to add to his funds - a very praised commodity. And some other 1452 nations too I'd vager. The Catholic King Christian 1 might take a pragmatic approach to the West Indies if told about his continued finacial problems during his reign which had him pawn off the Orkney and Shetlands to King Jacob 3 of Scotland instead of a dowry for the wedding to Jacob of his daughter Margrethe. This also had him having troubles with the Hanse League and getting real control of Schleswig-Holstein.
Danish Navy was rebuilding and modernizing during the 1730's+ with better sailing ships where sailing and gunning were being optimized.
Other exports to Europe besides shipbuilding tech and sugar could be Popatoe's and "modern" gunpowder weapons.
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Post by stevep on Oct 10, 2024 17:56:09 GMT
Possibly especially since slavery is not as important in this region as in some parts of the Spanish and Portuguese colonies and this could be reduced further with a reduced market for them in Europe.
I could imagine Mexico, Brazil, and Peru having to build merchant fleets up to some level, or purchase ships from New England yards, in order to "push" their valuable commodities, gold, silver, sugar, brazilwood, chocolate, onto the world market, in a situation of more primitive European merchant marines. In the mid-1400s, they might all find the best customers in Ming Dynasty China, India, the Timurid empire, more than Europe. If the English colonies don't get mobbed by the rest then their likely to develop the most rapidly as they had a steadily growing population, a relatively stable population rather than the deeply socially and culturally divided ones of the other colonies. I do not think the English colonies on the American mainland can really get mobbed by the colonies of other countries without old world reinforcement manpower. The English Atlantic coast colonies, especially New England, already have a big population advantage over the neighboring French colonies, despite the good Indian alliances and fighting skills of the latter. Downtime Metropolitan France is only just shaking off would-be English conquerors. The way you describe the Spanish colonies of the Americas and its social groups, not to mention old world downtime Spain, does not make them sound like a very cohesive force ready to "mob" the Atlantic coast English colonies either. If Spanish America were united in the enterprise as one, they could overpower the colonies with population and resources, but that is not what it looks like. Though, to be be fair, Mexico at this time was under one of its better Viceroys, the first Count of Revillagigedo, who had a long, capable tenure, and the individual colonies, without meaningful mother country support, will probably have to really raise their teamwork game to survive. English colonial outposts on the Central and South American mainland, like British Honduras, Miskito coast, Guyana ---those could get mobbed by forces from New Spain or New Granada. Though Jamaica could hold for awhile through a cohesive local planter regime and international trade, it could be vulnerable to a New Spain-Cuban alliance that foments servile troubles while posing a naval threat.
That's why I think mobbing is rather unlikely. The up-time colonies in the Americas really have more in common with their neighbours that the states in Europe.
Good point about some of the Asiatic empires probably being better markets for a lot of goods than Europe in 1452.
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Post by raharris1973 on Oct 10, 2024 20:06:50 GMT
Though, to be be fair, Mexico at this time was under one of its better Viceroys, the first Count of Revillagigedo, who had a long, capable tenure, and the individual colonies, without meaningful mother country support, will probably have to really raise their teamwork game to survive.Just a point of clarification, although we seem in overall agreement. The bolded part here about the requirement for 'colonies' to raise their teamwork game refers to English, not Spanish. They would need to take on governing functions and expenses they were not used to, to survive and prosper, much less ever expand over the crests of the Alleghenies or Appalachians. The Spanish colonies don't need to centrally coordinate *just to survive*, although possibly, just possibly, Peru and Upper Peru may end up needing support from neighboring colonial 'nations', like New Granada, or La Plata, or conceivably Brazil, for the Hispanic regime to survive the indigenous revolts of Tupac Amaru II in Peru and Tupac Katari in Upper Peru/Bolivia in the late 1770s/early 1780s. Anglo-America will be able to defend itself with effort, but will need some time before it can do territorial expansion of any major sort. It is certainly, without British regulars and the British fleet, not taking Quebec and Montreal in 1759, nor any time in the 1700s/1400s, possibly not ever expanding north of the Great Lakes. At best around the turn of the 1480s-90s/1780s-1780s/90s it's crossing over the mountains into Kentucky, Tennessee, Ohio country, Alabama. Anglo-Americans are unlikely to be mounting any campaign in the valley of Mexico in this TL's 1847/1547 either, between lower technology, prosperity, and lesser immigration. |
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Post by stevep on Oct 10, 2024 22:56:33 GMT
Though, to be be fair, Mexico at this time was under one of its better Viceroys, the first Count of Revillagigedo, who had a long, capable tenure, and the individual colonies, without meaningful mother country support, will probably have to really raise their teamwork game to survive.Just a point of clarification, although we seem in overall agreement. The bolded part here about the requirement for 'colonies' to raise their teamwork game refers to English, not Spanish. They would need to take on governing functions and expenses they were not used to, to survive and prosper, much less ever expand over the crests of the Alleghenies or Appalachians. The Spanish colonies don't need to centrally coordinate *just to survive*, although possibly, just possibly, Peru and Upper Peru may end up needing support from neighboring colonial 'nations', like New Granada, or La Plata, or conceivably Brazil, for the Hispanic regime to survive the indigenous revolts of Tupac Amaru II in Peru and Tupac Katari in Upper Peru/Bolivia in the late 1770s/early 1780s. Anglo-America will be able to defend itself with effort, but will need some time before it can do territorial expansion of any major sort. It is certainly, without British regulars and the British fleet, not taking Quebec and Montreal in 1759, nor any time in the 1700s/1400s, possibly not ever expanding north of the Great Lakes. At best around the turn of the 1480s-90s/1780s-1780s/90s it's crossing over the mountains into Kentucky, Tennessee, Ohio country, Alabama. Anglo-Americans are unlikely to be mounting any campaign in the valley of Mexico in this TL's 1847/1547 either, between lower technology, prosperity, and lesser immigration.
I'm a bit confused here as you have me making a quote that I very much doubt I made as I wouldn't have had an idea who the first Count of Revillagigedo was! Are you cross referencing from another site and getting crossed wires? - Just had a quick look and he has a wiki page. He was already 70 when the POD occurred so he is likely to only have a limited time in power. OTL he died in 1766 so could have another decade but whether he was mentally competent all that time or in this crisis he could [and would want to] maintain his position as governor I don't know.
Anyway its an interesting statement and Mexico aka New Spain was one of the most prosperous of the Spanish colonies at this point.
Agree that the British colonies will have to work together to prosper and possibly even to survive. There will be a strong incentive for them to do this once they realise what\s happened and that their on their own but could well be some squabbling, especially with the conflicting claims for expansion westward. If tension with the French colonies rise as they did OTL and I suspect they might then that could get messy. Also dangerously for them that could make them mistrusted by the assorted Spanish colonies. - I think the former is likely because both French and British colonies are likely to make moves that increase the conflict. The vastly more populated British colonies could see the French ones, or at least parts of them as up for grabs with it no longer having support from Paris. On the other side the French are likely to want to link up Quebec and Louisiana as OTL, possibly even more as they now feel vulnerable which could prompt for them to gain control of the Ohio valley as OTL. - As such there could be a conflict between the British and French colonies but how it will go and what other powers might intervene could be very important. Ultimately I can't see the French colonies surviving as separate states simply because of their low population but how things develop would be uncertain.
One thing I don't think has been mentioned is that there would be a fair amount of 'home' nation forces, both army and probably even more so naval in the colonies at any point and their likely to swing into supporting the colonies rather than the down-time 'homelands'. Spain had a lot of trade between its assorted colonies as well as with Spain and with China and a lot of this is likely to end up with New Spain. France, Britain and the Portuguese and Dutch will also have forces to protect their colonies, both against internal unrest in terms of the plantation colonies and some parts of the Spanish continental lands and also because of the tensions between the rivals. How much units like large warships could be supported, maintained and ultimately replaced I don't know but I think that the Spanish would be best placed with the British and possibly the Dutch following on. - Simply because of the relative size of their colonies and their level of development.
Anyway an interesting scenario.
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Post by raharris1973 on Oct 10, 2024 23:30:15 GMT
I'm a bit confused here as you have me making a quote that I very much doubt I made as I wouldn't have had an idea who the first Count of Revillagigedo was! Yeah, that was a technical mistake, I was simply trying to quote myself. That sentence was me, not stevep. I was clarifying myself. |
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Post by stevep on Oct 11, 2024 11:35:00 GMT
I'm a bit confused here as you have me making a quote that I very much doubt I made as I wouldn't have had an idea who the first Count of Revillagigedo was! Yeah, that was a technical mistake, I was simply trying to quote myself. That sentence was me, not stevep. I was clarifying myself.
OK thanks for clarifying.
One other thing with the count and other governors in probably all the colonies was that one issue they struggled with was smuggling. This was probably especially bad for the Spanish colonies given the fairly moribund state of the Spanish economy, as it simply couldn't match the products and prices available from other nations, especially Britain and the Netherlands I suspect. This will now disappear, at least in the short term as the home countries simply don't exist in any form that could supply the former products. As such you could see fairly rapid economic development in those colonies of all nations that have wise leadership and not too many obstacles to it as they seek to supply their own manufactured/processed products. Initially this will be for their own demands but the more successful ones will look to sell to other colonies and overseas. Here its possible that the industrial revolution, albeit probably a century or so down the line will occur somewhere in the Americas rather than a still more backwards if possibly catching up Europe.
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Post by raharris1973 on Oct 11, 2024 13:54:24 GMT
Yeah, that was a technical mistake, I was simply trying to quote myself. That sentence was me, not stevep. I was clarifying myself.
OK thanks for clarifying.
One other thing with the count and other governors in probably all the colonies was that one issue they struggled with was smuggling. This was probably especially bad for the Spanish colonies given the fairly moribund state of the Spanish economy, as it simply couldn't match the products and prices available from other nations, especially Britain and the Netherlands I suspect. This will now disappear, at least in the short term as the home countries simply don't exist in any form that could supply the former products. As such you could see fairly rapid economic development in those colonies of all nations that have wise leadership and not too many obstacles to it as they seek to supply their own manufactured/processed products. Initially this will be for their own demands but the more successful ones will look to sell to other colonies and overseas. Here its possible that the industrial revolution, albeit probably a century or so down the line will occur somewhere in the Americas rather than a still more backwards if possibly catching up Europe.
New England is still the best spot for industrial revolution. However, maybe Mexico could grow also as a major production center. Maybe Paraguay? Taking advantage of different water levels and waterfalls for mills and such. |
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Post by raharris1973 on Oct 15, 2024 2:27:31 GMT
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