Yuri
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Post by Yuri on Aug 30, 2024 19:55:27 GMT
What if Charles II of Spain was not born impotent And had, say, two healthy sons with Marie Louise, thereby securing the continuation of the Habsburg dynasty in Spain? In this alternate timeline, the Habsburg Spain would likely work towards several objectives. First, For butterfly purposes And To give a clear path to this Spain, they would in this timeline aim to reduce or eliminate the privileges and monopolies held by the Spanish crowns, centralising power more effectively. They might also seek to balance manufacturing, which, if I'm not mistaken, was monopolised by Catalonia—at least in terms of textile production—by building more factories and distributing industry more evenly across Spain.
Another goal would be to create a large army, both in quantity and quality. During the War of the Spanish Succession OTL, Spain, under Bourbon control, could only muster 20,000 soldiers, which was fewer than the 35,000 soldiers raised by the Spanish Netherlands, and only slightly more than the 15,000 raised by Spanish Italy. Yet another objective would be to reform the Spanish navy, which had suffered a marked decline over the preceding decades since the Thirty Years' War and the end of the Eighty Years' War, losing important battles.
How would Habsburg Spain fare in the 18th century in achieving these objectives, and what would the consequences be?
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Aug 30, 2024 23:09:31 GMT
What if Charles II of Spain was not born impotent And had, say, two healthy sons with Marie Louise, thereby securing the continuation of the Habsburg dynasty in Spain? In this alternate timeline, the Habsburg Spain would likely work towards several objectives. First, For butterfly purposes And To give a clear path to this Spain, they would in this timeline aim to reduce or eliminate the privileges and monopolies held by the Spanish crowns, centralising power more effectively. They might also seek to balance manufacturing, which, if I'm not mistaken, was monopolised by Catalonia—at least in terms of textile production—by building more factories and distributing industry more evenly across Spain. Another goal would be to create a large army, both in quantity and quality. During the War of the Spanish Succession OTL, Spain, under Bourbon control, could only muster 20,000 soldiers, which was fewer than the 35,000 soldiers raised by the Spanish Netherlands, and only slightly more than the 15,000 raised by Spanish Italy. Yet another objective would be to reform the Spanish navy, which had suffered a marked decline over the preceding decades since the Thirty Years' War and the end of the Eighty Years' War, losing important battles. How would Habsburg Spain fare in the 18th century in achieving these objectives, and what would the consequences be?
Welcome aboard Yuri.
That is quite a programme. You need to reverse a decline during the last ~150-200 years and also take on a lot of vested interests as well as some stuff possibly even harder. a) Assuming that something goes right for Charles II you would need to avoid the dire inbreeding that had been crippling the Spanish Hapsburg's by choosing a wider range of partners. I think they had pretty much married almost solely with women from the neighbouring Portuguese royal house so that's possible if Charles looks wider afield for his son's wives.
b) The assorted kingdoms and regions had deeply embedded privileges and interests and its going to take a lot of horse-trading and persuasion - or a lot of force which might backfire badly - to get them to relax some of those rights and also probably to try and get a national market with regional tariffs and other restrictions removed. Don't know if Catalonia was monopolizing industry at that stage but remember that no one had factories in the modern meaning of the word at that stage. We're talking more about cottage industries and processing of primary goods such as wool, crops, minerals and the like. Also if Catalonia was punching above its weight in 'industry' that might be because its got some natural advantages or socially more flexible to allow it to be a better location for business.
IIRC Catalonia or the wider Aragonese area was the prime region loyal to the Hapsburg claimant in the war of the Spanish successor - which obviously won't happen here - which was possibly partly because of the regional rivalries.
c) In terms of military I would say they would really have to wait until your got the civilian society and economy sorted out because you need them to be a lot stronger to support the necessary reforms of the army and navy, both of which are bloody expensive even in peacetime, let alone war. As such internationally keeping a low profile for a decade or two and seeking to avoid being dragged into wider European struggles - which will be hard with Louis XIV on the French throne and looking to expand his territories. Even if he doesn't probe south into Spain - which could be done in part by encouraging opposition to your reforms - he's going to seek to expand in the east which would include threatening at least some of the Spanish Netherlands, which despite a couple of centuries of conflict are still pretty wealthy. - Given the OTL division of Spanish forces with some elements fighting for Bourbon and Hapsburg candidates that could explain why the Bourbons were able to raise relatively few Spanish force to support their cause.
d) One point your not mentioned is the wider empire, especially outside Europe. Its the source of a lot of wealth and potential power but it needs defending while the mineral wealth - largely gold and silver - has also cause a lot of problems with inflation while even before the OTL succession war Spain was frequently facing bankruptcy and defaulting on its debts. Also there is resentment at being tied to only Spanish goods while the poor state of the Spanish economy means smuggling is a better option for many colonies and the Spanish policy of an highly stratified society with the bulk of the power and top offices going to the peninsula Spanish - i.e. those coming over from European Spain to whom the Spanish born in the colonies had to take 2nd place with below them various mixed race groups, the old native population and at the bottom of all the blacks, whether slave or free.
All in all its going to be a hell of a job and take probably all of Charles II's reign as well as brilliant leadership to get all this done and bound to be some set-backs and unresolved issues he has to pass on to his son. If you can do it and hold the entire structure together - and other powers don't intervene to stop such actions - then potentially the entire empire could make Spain very powerful again but the centre of economic and commercial power and hence political power over time is likely to end up across the Atlantic, which could be another issue.
Anyway some interesting suggestions here but not sure what would be the best way to start going about this, although it might depend on exactly how Charles got a decent genetic package among other things.
Steve
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Yuri
Leading Seaman
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Post by Yuri on Aug 31, 2024 0:22:00 GMT
What if Charles II of Spain was not born impotent And had, say, two healthy sons with Marie Louise, thereby securing the continuation of the Habsburg dynasty in Spain? In this alternate timeline, the Habsburg Spain would likely work towards several objectives. First, For butterfly purposes And To give a clear path to this Spain, they would in this timeline aim to reduce or eliminate the privileges and monopolies held by the Spanish crowns, centralising power more effectively. They might also seek to balance manufacturing, which, if I'm not mistaken, was monopolised by Catalonia—at least in terms of textile production—by building more factories and distributing industry more evenly across Spain. Another goal would be to create a large army, both in quantity and quality. During the War of the Spanish Succession OTL, Spain, under Bourbon control, could only muster 20,000 soldiers, which was fewer than the 35,000 soldiers raised by the Spanish Netherlands, and only slightly more than the 15,000 raised by Spanish Italy. Yet another objective would be to reform the Spanish navy, which had suffered a marked decline over the preceding decades since the Thirty Years' War and the end of the Eighty Years' War, losing important battles. How would Habsburg Spain fare in the 18th century in achieving these objectives, and what would the consequences be?
Welcome aboard Yuri.
That is quite a programme. You need to reverse a decline during the last ~150-200 years and also take on a lot of vested interests as well as some stuff possibly even harder. a) Assuming that something goes right for Charles II you would need to avoid the dire inbreeding that had been crippling the Spanish Hapsburg's by choosing a wider range of partners. I think they had pretty much married almost solely with women from the neighbouring Portuguese royal house so that's possible if Charles looks wider afield for his son's wives.
b) The assorted kingdoms and regions had deeply embedded privileges and interests and its going to take a lot of horse-trading and persuasion - or a lot of force which might backfire badly - to get them to relax some of those rights and also probably to try and get a national market with regional tariffs and other restrictions removed. Don't know if Catalonia was monopolizing industry at that stage but remember that no one had factories in the modern meaning of the word at that stage. We're talking more about cottage industries and processing of primary goods such as wool, crops, minerals and the like. Also if Catalonia was punching above its weight in 'industry' that might be because its got some natural advantages or socially more flexible to allow it to be a better location for business.
IIRC Catalonia or the wider Aragonese area was the prime region loyal to the Hapsburg claimant in the war of the Spanish successor - which obviously won't happen here - which was possibly partly because of the regional rivalries.
c) In terms of military I would say they would really have to wait until your got the civilian society and economy sorted out because you need them to be a lot stronger to support the necessary reforms of the army and navy, both of which are bloody expensive even in peacetime, let alone war. As such internationally keeping a low profile for a decade or two and seeking to avoid being dragged into wider European struggles - which will be hard with Louis XIV on the French throne and looking to expand his territories. Even if he doesn't probe south into Spain - which could be done in part by encouraging opposition to your reforms - he's going to seek to expand in the east which would include threatening at least some of the Spanish Netherlands, which despite a couple of centuries of conflict are still pretty wealthy. - Given the OTL division of Spanish forces with some elements fighting for Bourbon and Hapsburg candidates that could explain why the Bourbons were able to raise relatively few Spanish force to support their cause.
d) One point your not mentioned is the wider empire, especially outside Europe. Its the source of a lot of wealth and potential power but it needs defending while the mineral wealth - largely gold and silver - has also cause a lot of problems with inflation while even before the OTL succession war Spain was frequently facing bankruptcy and defaulting on its debts. Also there is resentment at being tied to only Spanish goods while the poor state of the Spanish economy means smuggling is a better option for many colonies and the Spanish policy of an highly stratified society with the bulk of the power and top offices going to the peninsula Spanish - i.e. those coming over from European Spain to whom the Spanish born in the colonies had to take 2nd place with below them various mixed race groups, the old native population and at the bottom of all the blacks, whether slave or free.
All in all its going to be a hell of a job and take probably all of Charles II's reign as well as brilliant leadership to get all this done and bound to be some set-backs and unresolved issues he has to pass on to his son. If you can do it and hold the entire structure together - and other powers don't intervene to stop such actions - then potentially the entire empire could make Spain very powerful again but the centre of economic and commercial power and hence political power over time is likely to end up across the Atlantic, which could be another issue.
Anyway some interesting suggestions here but not sure what would be the best way to start going about this, although it might depend on exactly how Charles got a decent genetic package among other things.
Steve
Monopoly existed because, for example, everything that came from the Americas had to pass through Seville; it could not go to any other place in Spain. Later, under the Bourbons, the monopoly shifted from Seville to Cádiz. I believe the situation with the textile Manufacturing was similar—everything had to go through Aragon. Regarding the military issue, I base my argument not only on the War of the Spanish Succession but also on the Nine Years' War, during which the Spanish fielded an army with an average of 50,000 soldiers. I believe it is clear that there was a weakening of the Spanish army during the reign of Charles II and towards the end of the reign of Philip IV. In this scenario, the point of divergence would be that Charles II still had some mental impairment but was fertile. In this pod, Also his illegitimate brother might gain control of the regency or influence the government, initiating some reforms, at least in the military. However, the period of significant reform would likely come with the children of Charles II and their descendants in the 18th century. Regarding naval reforms, I believe Spain had the resources to extract the necessary materials. What would be needed is a centralised and efficient administration to gather them. Regarding the conflicts, I believe it is clear that with Spain continuing under the Habsburgs, they would still be in conflict with the Bourbons. However, it is through conflicts that one learns from mistakes, leading to innovation and reforms. In this case, these ITTL Habsburgs will learn from these conflicts. |
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lordroel
Administrator
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Post by lordroel on Aug 31, 2024 9:39:01 GMT
What if Charles II of Spain was not born impotent And had, say, two healthy sons with Marie Louise, thereby securing the continuation of the Habsburg dynasty in Spain? In this alternate timeline, the Habsburg Spain would likely work towards several objectives. First, For butterfly purposes And To give a clear path to this Spain, they would in this timeline aim to reduce or eliminate the privileges and monopolies held by the Spanish crowns, centralising power more effectively. They might also seek to balance manufacturing, which, if I'm not mistaken, was monopolised by Catalonia—at least in terms of textile production—by building more factories and distributing industry more evenly across Spain. Another goal would be to create a large army, both in quantity and quality. During the War of the Spanish Succession OTL, Spain, under Bourbon control, could only muster 20,000 soldiers, which was fewer than the 35,000 soldiers raised by the Spanish Netherlands, and only slightly more than the 15,000 raised by Spanish Italy. Yet another objective would be to reform the Spanish navy, which had suffered a marked decline over the preceding decades since the Thirty Years' War and the end of the Eighty Years' War, losing important battles. How would Habsburg Spain fare in the 18th century in achieving these objectives, and what would the consequences be? You have butterflied the War of the Spanish Succession awaay wich schould have started in 1701. |
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Post by Max Sinister on Aug 31, 2024 10:49:30 GMT
Spain was in very bad state in 1700 - as I read once, its population had fallen to 5.7 million people, and the king often was unable to pay for the food on his table.
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stevep
Fleet admiral
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Post by stevep on Aug 31, 2024 19:06:07 GMT
Welcome aboard Yuri.
That is quite a programme. You need to reverse a decline during the last ~150-200 years and also take on a lot of vested interests as well as some stuff possibly even harder. a) Assuming that something goes right for Charles II you would need to avoid the dire inbreeding that had been crippling the Spanish Hapsburg's by choosing a wider range of partners. I think they had pretty much married almost solely with women from the neighbouring Portuguese royal house so that's possible if Charles looks wider afield for his son's wives.
b) The assorted kingdoms and regions had deeply embedded privileges and interests and its going to take a lot of horse-trading and persuasion - or a lot of force which might backfire badly - to get them to relax some of those rights and also probably to try and get a national market with regional tariffs and other restrictions removed. Don't know if Catalonia was monopolizing industry at that stage but remember that no one had factories in the modern meaning of the word at that stage. We're talking more about cottage industries and processing of primary goods such as wool, crops, minerals and the like. Also if Catalonia was punching above its weight in 'industry' that might be because its got some natural advantages or socially more flexible to allow it to be a better location for business.
IIRC Catalonia or the wider Aragonese area was the prime region loyal to the Hapsburg claimant in the war of the Spanish successor - which obviously won't happen here - which was possibly partly because of the regional rivalries.
c) In terms of military I would say they would really have to wait until your got the civilian society and economy sorted out because you need them to be a lot stronger to support the necessary reforms of the army and navy, both of which are bloody expensive even in peacetime, let alone war. As such internationally keeping a low profile for a decade or two and seeking to avoid being dragged into wider European struggles - which will be hard with Louis XIV on the French throne and looking to expand his territories. Even if he doesn't probe south into Spain - which could be done in part by encouraging opposition to your reforms - he's going to seek to expand in the east which would include threatening at least some of the Spanish Netherlands, which despite a couple of centuries of conflict are still pretty wealthy. - Given the OTL division of Spanish forces with some elements fighting for Bourbon and Hapsburg candidates that could explain why the Bourbons were able to raise relatively few Spanish force to support their cause.
d) One point your not mentioned is the wider empire, especially outside Europe. Its the source of a lot of wealth and potential power but it needs defending while the mineral wealth - largely gold and silver - has also cause a lot of problems with inflation while even before the OTL succession war Spain was frequently facing bankruptcy and defaulting on its debts. Also there is resentment at being tied to only Spanish goods while the poor state of the Spanish economy means smuggling is a better option for many colonies and the Spanish policy of an highly stratified society with the bulk of the power and top offices going to the peninsula Spanish - i.e. those coming over from European Spain to whom the Spanish born in the colonies had to take 2nd place with below them various mixed race groups, the old native population and at the bottom of all the blacks, whether slave or free.
All in all its going to be a hell of a job and take probably all of Charles II's reign as well as brilliant leadership to get all this done and bound to be some set-backs and unresolved issues he has to pass on to his son. If you can do it and hold the entire structure together - and other powers don't intervene to stop such actions - then potentially the entire empire could make Spain very powerful again but the centre of economic and commercial power and hence political power over time is likely to end up across the Atlantic, which could be another issue.
Anyway some interesting suggestions here but not sure what would be the best way to start going about this, although it might depend on exactly how Charles got a decent genetic package among other things.
Steve
Monopoly existed because, for example, everything that came from the Americas had to pass through Seville; it could not go to any other place in Spain. Later, under the Bourbons, the monopoly shifted from Seville to Cádiz. I believe the situation with the textile Manufacturing was similar—everything had to go through Aragon. Regarding the military issue, I base my argument not only on the War of the Spanish Succession but also on the Nine Years' War, during which the Spanish fielded an army with an average of 50,000 soldiers. I believe it is clear that there was a weakening of the Spanish army during the reign of Charles II and towards the end of the reign of Philip IV. In this scenario, the point of divergence would be that Charles II still had some mental impairment but was fertile. In this pod, Also his illegitimate brother might gain control of the regency or influence the government, initiating some reforms, at least in the military. However, the period of significant reform would likely come with the children of Charles II and their descendants in the 18th century. Regarding naval reforms, I believe Spain had the resources to extract the necessary materials. What would be needed is a centralised and efficient administration to gather them. Regarding the conflicts, I believe it is clear that with Spain continuing under the Habsburgs, they would still be in conflict with the Bourbons. However, it is through conflicts that one learns from mistakes, leading to innovation and reforms. In this case, these ITTL Habsburgs will learn from these conflicts.
With Charles II as I understand it the problem was too much inbreeding in the Spanish Hapsburg's. If you only make him fertile but don't change that problem then his children are likely to have similar problems.
On monopoly's that would be an issue of regional privileges. I could see all trade between the Americas and Seville being set up. Not sure what you mean with Catalonia. Had initial thought you meant textile manufacturing was concentrated there but sounds like your saying its not a question of manufacturing inside Spain but all such imports to Spain being forced through a single region. that does seen strange.
Your right that one big step on the economy is to remove internal barriers and restrictions, along with also remove or reduce aristocratic and possibly also clerical privileges. That's going to be easier said than done.
The decline in Spanish military power in the Spanish succession conflict compared to the earlier 9 years war could be partly continued economic exhaustion after the 1st war and partly that Spain was divided in the latter war along with possibly other factors involved.
I agree that in the next war between Louis XIV and the Hapsburg's Spain is going to be on the anti-French side although when and under what circumstances that conflict occurs would be difficult to tell.
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