Post by ukron on Aug 27, 2024 15:24:55 GMT
Hello everyone, today I'm presenting a short AH written by Thomas D. for his website: auborddelabime.com/2022/11/01/bolide/
I'd like to thank him again for allowing me to translate his work, and I can only encourage you to visit his site, which is full of uchronies and drawings of machines that never existed.
Thanks again and happy reading.
Thanks again and happy reading.
Extract from “Comprendre la guerre nucléaire indo-pakistanaise de 2002” by Marie-Hélène Lambert for Paxartis.com, October 9, 2002.
An explosive context
The year was June 2002. Since the previous December, a military conflict has been raging between India and Pakistan. War has not been officially declared, but it is not far off. Daily skirmishes are taking place in Kashmir and all along the border.
It all began on the morning of December 13, 2001, when an armed group of five men attacked the Indian Parliament, taking advantage of a breach in the security cordon at Gate 12. The attackers managed to kill seven people before being shot dead themselves. Although Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf condemned the attack, Indian Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee was not fooled and immediately accused Pakistan of facilitating the infiltration of Islamist armed groups.
Not surprisingly, Vajpayee ordered the deployment of 600,000 troops to the Pakistani border in Kashmir. The Indian generals were then given a second order: to prepare for a possible invasion of Pakistan itself. Although Musharraf was unaware of the second order, the first was made public. At first, Musharraf hesitated to react to this Indian action, as the Pakistani army was partly deployed on the Afghan border. But soon afterwards, the Pakistani President changed his mind and ordered 400,000 Pakistani troops to confront the Indians in Kashmir. And that's exactly what the Indians were hoping for, as this deployment leaves the Pakistanis with just 200,000 men to defend the rest of the territory from a further 700,000 Indians. Preparations began discreetly in the Indian Punjab where, over the weeks, 3 Army Corps were patiently assembled with their support and logistics, amounting to some 250,000 men.
Not surprisingly, Vajpayee ordered the deployment of 600,000 troops to the Pakistani border in Kashmir. The Indian generals were then given a second order: to prepare for a possible invasion of Pakistan itself. Although Musharraf was unaware of the second order, the first was made public. At first, Musharraf hesitated to react to this Indian action, as the Pakistani army was partly deployed on the Afghan border. But soon afterwards, the Pakistani President changed his mind and ordered 400,000 Pakistani troops to confront the Indians in Kashmir. And that's exactly what the Indians were hoping for, as this deployment leaves the Pakistanis with just 200,000 men to defend the rest of the territory from a further 700,000 Indians. Preparations began discreetly in the Indian Punjab where, over the weeks, 3 Army Corps were patiently assembled with their support and logistics, amounting to some 250,000 men.
A slightly smaller force of 2 Army Corps is preparing much more visibly for a possible invasion from the Thar Desert. Invasion plan from Punjab: reach Lahore on D+1, reach Islamabad on D+5 or D+7. This will leave the bulk of the Pakistani army trapped in Kashmir.
The Pakistani generals, even if they are not aware of all the deployments underway, are not stupid. Having the same maps as their Indian counterparts, they expect the worst and deploy two brigades to cover the “Lahore front”, well aware that this would be insufficient to stop a large-scale offensive. Although the Thar Desert offered an alternative route to invade Pakistan from India, this option was still considered unlikely, as the value of this territory was considered negligible. It was at this point that Musharraf decided that if the “Lahore front” came under attack, Pakistan would use the nuclear bomb. After all, the Pakistani army does not have as many men as the Indian army, and Pakistan's modest territory offers no strategic depth.
The Pakistani generals, even if they are not aware of all the deployments underway, are not stupid. Having the same maps as their Indian counterparts, they expect the worst and deploy two brigades to cover the “Lahore front”, well aware that this would be insufficient to stop a large-scale offensive. Although the Thar Desert offered an alternative route to invade Pakistan from India, this option was still considered unlikely, as the value of this territory was considered negligible. It was at this point that Musharraf decided that if the “Lahore front” came under attack, Pakistan would use the nuclear bomb. After all, the Pakistani army does not have as many men as the Indian army, and Pakistan's modest territory offers no strategic depth.
In the meantime, the two countries confront each other and prepare for any eventuality, including the worst: nuclear war. India has the most impressive arsenal, with 140 nuclear warheads ranging in power from 20 to 60 kilotons and a dozen neutron bombs, but insists that the use of this arsenal would only be for defensive purposes. Pakistan also has 140 nuclear warheads, but no neutron bombs. The power of Pakistani bombs is estimated at 10 or 15 kilotons. The major weakness of Pakistan's arsenal is its means of delivery. The Islamic Republic has no officially operational ballistic missiles, and only its Shenyang A-5C attack aircraft are capable of dropping nuclear bombs. For this reason, the No. 16 Black Panther and No. 26 Black Spider squadrons are on permanent alert. India's modest Prithvi missile has a range of 150 km, while Mirages 2000H are used for air deployment.
But on the night of June 6, an unforeseen event precipitated the course of history. An atmospheric explosion lit up the sky over Kashmir. The two belligerents thought it was a demonstration shot by their adversary. Thinking they were under attack, both countries decided to retaliate.
No one had seen it coming, not even the major powers had detected a launch.
But on the night of June 6, an unforeseen event precipitated the course of history. An atmospheric explosion lit up the sky over Kashmir. The two belligerents thought it was a demonstration shot by their adversary. Thinking they were under attack, both countries decided to retaliate.
No one had seen it coming, not even the major powers had detected a launch.
Impact trajectory
The first to launch were the Pakistanis with their Shenyang A-5Cs, but the Indian Mirages took off 3 minutes later and the Prithvi were being dispersed to maintain their second-strike capability. Of the 18 Pakistani attackers, only 5 manage to deliver their nuclear warheads. The targets hit were the naval base at Okha and the air bases at Srinagar, Halwara and Bhuj, as well as the air command at Ghandinagar. In the case of the latter, although the surface installations were destroyed, there were many survivors, as the vital installations were deeply buried. The Indian attack was more successful, thanks to more efficient and better escorted aircraft. Unfortunately, all the major Pakistani military targets were close to major urban centers, particularly in the Indus Valley. So 16 nuclear bombs hit the Karachi naval base and the nearby Masroor air base, as well as the air bases at Lahore, Chander, Islamambad, Chaklala, Kamra and the military formations on the outskirts of Kashmir.
The first to launch were the Pakistanis with their Shenyang A-5Cs, but the Indian Mirages took off 3 minutes later and the Prithvi were being dispersed to maintain their second-strike capability. Of the 18 Pakistani attackers, only 5 manage to deliver their nuclear warheads. The targets hit were the naval base at Okha and the air bases at Srinagar, Halwara and Bhuj, as well as the air command at Ghandinagar. In the case of the latter, although the surface installations were destroyed, there were many survivors, as the vital installations were deeply buried. The Indian attack was more successful, thanks to more efficient and better escorted aircraft. Unfortunately, all the major Pakistani military targets were close to major urban centers, particularly in the Indus Valley. So 16 nuclear bombs hit the Karachi naval base and the nearby Masroor air base, as well as the air bases at Lahore, Chander, Islamambad, Chaklala, Kamra and the military formations on the outskirts of Kashmir.
The world awoke to news flashes of events as the international community called for an immediate cessation of hostilities, but the situation continued to deteriorate. In Kashmir, 3 new Pakistani nuclear bombs were detonated in the early morning, and at the same time, across India, dormant terrorist cells were activated, with no fewer than 17 suicide attacks taking place before 10 a.m.. This triggered reprisals among the population, with Hindus attacking Muslims en masse in the face of an overwhelmed police force unable to maintain order. In an attempt to decapitate the terrorist cells supposedly commanded by the ISI, Islamabad is immediately targeted and 3 nuclear bombs are detonated around the Aabpara district and two others near the Pakistani Air Force HQ. In Punjab, a further 4 bombs were detonated in Rawalpindi and Chaklala, destroying the two main army HQs.
In terms of conventional fighting, the Pakistanis have not moved, but the Indians are preparing to enter Punjab en masse to attack Lahore and Sindh from the Thar desert.
In terms of conventional fighting, the Pakistanis have not moved, but the Indians are preparing to enter Punjab en masse to attack Lahore and Sindh from the Thar desert.
The Pakistani response was swift, with the air force mobilizing all its resources with a single aim: to destroy New Delhi. Between 11.05 and 11.23 a.m., 55 nuclear warheads were detonated in Punjab, Haryana and the Indian capital, which alone was hit by 11 bombs. To the great surprise of the Indians, 11 ballistic missiles were fired by the Pakistanis: the Ghauri-I, still under development. The Indians were not to be outdone: as soon as the attack was detected, they set off their second-strike Prithvi missiles. A total of 30 missiles are fired in the direction of Pakistan's major cities, where the army has no means of interception. At the same time, the Indian air force launched all remaining aircraft to bomb all known Pakistani positions and bases, whether with nuclear, neutron or conventional bombs. The two brigades of the “Lahore front” are turned into “heat and dust” as 29 of the 30 Prithvi hit their targets.
The few live broadcasts filmed from India were interrupted by nuclear explosions in New Delhi, Lahore and Islamabad, which disrupted communications infrastructures. While the world's public no longer had any information on the situation, the major powers used satellite technology to monitor events. The Indian army enters Pakistan, where it is greeted by a hostile population. Indian soldiers are quick to retaliate with heavy fire at the slightest stone thrown. In some cases, the tankers rip through the hostile crowd by launching their T-72 Ayeva tanks at full speed, adding to the horror and carnage. In Pakistan, Hindus not killed by nuclear bombing are targeted by civilians, militiamen and soldiers whose country has just been wiped out. In India, the forces of law and order find it hard to intervene - when they feel like it - and thousands of Muslims die massacred in pogroms or in fires aimed at their neighborhoods.
Peace in vain
On June 8, the highest surviving officer of the Pakistani National Command Authority, Admiral Abdul Aziz Mirza, called a halt to hostilities and was willing to capitulate on the sole condition that Indian troops withdrew to put an end to the massacre. In India, Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee, who had survived the nuclear bombing of New Delhi, demanded in return the dismantling of all weapons of mass destruction in Pakistan's arsenal and the neutralization of its offensive capabilities. On June 10, Admiral Mirza gave his agreement from Teheran, Iran, where he and 12 million other Pakistanis had taken refuge. On June 11, Indian forces began to return to their borders.
On June 8, the highest surviving officer of the Pakistani National Command Authority, Admiral Abdul Aziz Mirza, called a halt to hostilities and was willing to capitulate on the sole condition that Indian troops withdrew to put an end to the massacre. In India, Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee, who had survived the nuclear bombing of New Delhi, demanded in return the dismantling of all weapons of mass destruction in Pakistan's arsenal and the neutralization of its offensive capabilities. On June 10, Admiral Mirza gave his agreement from Teheran, Iran, where he and 12 million other Pakistanis had taken refuge. On June 11, Indian forces began to return to their borders.
While the clouds of ash and dust, partly irradiated, have not yet subsided, glowing flames are devouring the cobs of wood from the thousands of bonfires that have been lit, mainly on the banks of the Ganges. In fact, the Indians, most of whom are Hindu, have a tradition of burning their dead on open-sky pyres. According to American astronaut Peggy Whitson, the thousands of pyres can be seen from space via infrared cameras, despite the high levels of dust and ash still cluttering the skies over the Indian subcontinent. And the pollution is likely to get worse, as the fires have been burning for days and are likely to continue for weeks, if not months. Not to mention the fact that the hundreds of kilos of wood needed to build a pyre are likely to create a shortage over the coming months and into winter, when it will be the only means of heating or cooking for as long as the infrastructure remains in disrepair.
While 17 million people were killed between June 6 and 7 in the nuclear exchanges, 7 million people are dying from their injuries or from radiation in completely devastated areas where no help is available. In the days following the nuclear exchange, Pakistan and northern India are affected by the fallout, it is then estimated that the number of contaminated will triple. Especially since the prevailing winds at the moment are blowing green from the east and will contaminate a large part of the northern half of India and Bangladesh before being stopped by the foothills of the Himalayas on the border with Myanmar.
In addition, communal violence continues. Especially in Pakistan which is plunging into anarchy and civil war while the Pakistani and Indian leaders must still theoretically negotiate and sign an armistice and a peace treaty. In the meantime, the only certainty is that the tens of millions of Pakistani refugees pouring into Iran and Afghanistan will certainly trigger new tensions in the months and years to come. While Pakistan will take years to (eventually) recover, India, hard hit, is still standing. In the most extremist Muslim countries, anti-Indian demonstrations are multiplying and are becoming increasingly violent. In some Gulf monarchies where Pakistani and Indian workers live side by side, the army is forced to impose martial law to contain the violence. Obviously, the international community is mobilizing to come and help the civilian populations. Already, American, Chinese and Russian planes are dropping medical and food aid packages while rural areas of Pakistan are being transformed into giant refugee camps.
All for nothing
It was only on September 7 that the spokesmen of the US Air Force and NASA announced with absolute certainty that the atmospheric explosion of June 6 was due to the disintegration of a small asteroid, "This 15 kiloton explosion in the upper atmosphere has nothing nuclear and is not even man-made." Unfortunately, in the meantime Pakistan had been hit by 84 nuclear explosions and India by 62. By September 7, the war and massacres had already claimed at least 21 million lives. Only estimates of the number of victims can be given. But what is known is that by the end of 2002, 47 million people had been killed as a result of nuclear explosions, fallout, fighting and massacres.
It would take the United Nations a month to mount any semblance of a coordinated effort to establish refugee camps and provide massive medical treatment, food, and water. Meanwhile, irradiated refugees had spread throughout the region. A few in Afghanistan and Nepal, several hundred in Iran, although the situation there remained under control. Unfortunately for Bangladesh, although “far” from the war zone, the radioactive fallout had reached the Ganges River. Here, the UN and local authorities responded, but not before 20 million Bangladeshis had been contaminated to varying degrees. Not to mention the long-term impact on livestock, agriculture, and groundwater.
But the worst was yet to come. As hundreds of millions of people became refugees, all form of Pakistani state authority had collapsed. There were no relief or medical services to speak of, uncontaminated food was becoming scarce, as was clean water and medicine. Not only will 150 million people die from radiation-related illnesses caused by fallout and contamination, but another 100 million people are likely to die from starvation or disease. Plague, cholera, typhus, and botulism are making a comeback in areas affected by the chaos. Each disease has become deadly, especially with all the rotting corpses, and the contamination of livestock and water sources.
At the time of writing, Pakistan—as a nation state—has simply ceased to exist, and it is difficult to speculate about its future or that of its people. Even weakened South and East India are still holding on. But, like Bangladesh, they need international help to rebuild and clean up the contaminated areas. This will almost certainly take decades. For the whole world, this nightmare reminded us that nuclear war should be avoided by all means and that as Fénelon said: "All wars are civil, because it is always man against man who sheds his own blood." However, new concerns have already arisen over the past three days since, under the cover of a humanitarian operation, the Chinese People's Liberation Army entered Kashmir and Arunachal Pradesh en masse despite repeated warnings from the powerless Indian authorities. It remains to be seen how the local populations and the international community will react, while President Jiang Zemin denies any desire for annexation, saying that China is intervening to prevent a flood of contaminated refugees from pouring into its territory. It is useful to recall that China has long-standing territorial claims in these two areas of Indian territory.
It was only on September 7 that the spokesmen of the US Air Force and NASA announced with absolute certainty that the atmospheric explosion of June 6 was due to the disintegration of a small asteroid, "This 15 kiloton explosion in the upper atmosphere has nothing nuclear and is not even man-made." Unfortunately, in the meantime Pakistan had been hit by 84 nuclear explosions and India by 62. By September 7, the war and massacres had already claimed at least 21 million lives. Only estimates of the number of victims can be given. But what is known is that by the end of 2002, 47 million people had been killed as a result of nuclear explosions, fallout, fighting and massacres.
It would take the United Nations a month to mount any semblance of a coordinated effort to establish refugee camps and provide massive medical treatment, food, and water. Meanwhile, irradiated refugees had spread throughout the region. A few in Afghanistan and Nepal, several hundred in Iran, although the situation there remained under control. Unfortunately for Bangladesh, although “far” from the war zone, the radioactive fallout had reached the Ganges River. Here, the UN and local authorities responded, but not before 20 million Bangladeshis had been contaminated to varying degrees. Not to mention the long-term impact on livestock, agriculture, and groundwater.
But the worst was yet to come. As hundreds of millions of people became refugees, all form of Pakistani state authority had collapsed. There were no relief or medical services to speak of, uncontaminated food was becoming scarce, as was clean water and medicine. Not only will 150 million people die from radiation-related illnesses caused by fallout and contamination, but another 100 million people are likely to die from starvation or disease. Plague, cholera, typhus, and botulism are making a comeback in areas affected by the chaos. Each disease has become deadly, especially with all the rotting corpses, and the contamination of livestock and water sources.
At the time of writing, Pakistan—as a nation state—has simply ceased to exist, and it is difficult to speculate about its future or that of its people. Even weakened South and East India are still holding on. But, like Bangladesh, they need international help to rebuild and clean up the contaminated areas. This will almost certainly take decades. For the whole world, this nightmare reminded us that nuclear war should be avoided by all means and that as Fénelon said: "All wars are civil, because it is always man against man who sheds his own blood." However, new concerns have already arisen over the past three days since, under the cover of a humanitarian operation, the Chinese People's Liberation Army entered Kashmir and Arunachal Pradesh en masse despite repeated warnings from the powerless Indian authorities. It remains to be seen how the local populations and the international community will react, while President Jiang Zemin denies any desire for annexation, saying that China is intervening to prevent a flood of contaminated refugees from pouring into its territory. It is useful to recall that China has long-standing territorial claims in these two areas of Indian territory.
Author's notes: The idea of this short and dark AH is the telescoping of two events. In the midst of the Indo-Pakistani confrontation of 2001-2002, the Eastern Mediterranean event occurs above Kashmir.
