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Post by Otto Kretschmer on Jul 24, 2024 18:36:20 GMT
Ok, here we go  . The Pope at the time is Pius VI who reigned from 1775 to 1799 so from 772 AD he haa 23 years of rule so let's say he rules until 795 AD. Some initial thoughts: 1. As usual, technological superiority. The Papal States have access to numerous technological advancements including (but not limited to) gunpowder, paper, printing press, better metallirgy (the blast furnace) etc. 2. The Pope has the knowledge of the New World 3. The Papal army though small - just 10-15,000 troops - is highly capable 4. Charlemagne has just ascended the throne. He'll for sure be intrigued by the event that just took place. IIRC thr ISOT overwrites some Carolingian territory in Italy so he might not br entirely happy about it. 5. The Papacy has knowledge of numerous historical events - like the collapse of the Carolingian Empire, the Viking Age, the Crusades, decline of Byzantium and rise of the Ottomans the Protestant Reformation etc What's interesting in this scenario is that it is not an automatic wank - the Papal States MIGHT create a huge empire if they do the right moves but it's not a guarantee. The Papal States around 1776 AD, let's say only the territory in Italy gets ISOTed:  |
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Post by raharris1973 on Jul 25, 2024 2:51:41 GMT
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pope_Pius_VIThis was the Pope of the day. He should live long provided he doesn't get nasty infection, nasty invasion, or economic collapse from downtiming. The Papal States Army can likely kick Lombard ass by itself without Frankish help or ERE help. A big question is Papal States level of import dependence in 1776 and indigenous agricultural productivity. It probably has good potential, but may well be underutilized, and probably lives off of donations and imports to a certain extent with a high concentration of tourists, students, visitors, emissaries. Another question is weather/temperature levels in the 770s compared with the 1770s. In the 1770s, things were warming up in Europe which was finally getting well and truly out of the Little Ice Age. I do not know if 770s was reaching the beginnings of the Medieval Warm Period yet, but it was at least past the Fimbulwinter and the plague-battered 500s. To the extent it can move beyond questions of survival, the Papal States will try to harness the power of modern sailing ships, printed books, illustrations, and pamphlets, to support downtime Bishops, Priests, and Churches, with specific purposes in mind of keeping them all on the straight and narrow in theological, doctrinal, and ecclesiastical terms, and to provide ready supportive materials for missionary efforts. They will be working their Greek alphabet typesets bare, in addition to their Latin typesets. For mission work they are aware of and might at some point put on a "to do" list exploration of the Americas for missionizing purposes. However, even within Eurasia, they might consider it worthwhile to try missionizing more preciously with various peoples ultimately historically converted, with a roadshow enhanced by the best "technical effects" they can muster with 1700s tech. They might see, or imagine, or hope, early successful Scandinavia missions could preempt some Viking problems. Or sending forward some long-distance riding missionaries deep into Central Asia and further on to Mongolia might pay off in terms of winning Turkic and Mongol peoples to Christianity before they are converted to Islam as they get closer to Europe or the Middle East, or before they get converted to Buddhism in the Far East.
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Post by Otto Kretschmer on Jul 25, 2024 8:52:31 GMT
A good question to ponder upon is that of the spread of gunpowder. Is it going to benefit Christians disproportionately?
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Post by raharris1973 on Jul 25, 2024 14:30:20 GMT
A good question to ponder upon is that of the spread of gunpowder. Is it going to benefit Christians disproportionately? I would seriously give the Pontiff, by the 1770s, credit for having moral debates on the merits of "arms control", and attempting to limit the spread of gunpowder, not just use it to maximize Christian power. He and the Cardinals will surely be worried about the potential for gunpowder's use in Christian versus Christian, even Catholic versus Catholic, warfare and crime, while they will also have to consider its value as a tool in protecting Christian and innocent lives (convertible and salvageable one) from bloody heathen (Viking, Avar, Magyar, Mongol), and infidel (Muslim) massacre or enslavement. The Papal States Army and Swiss Guard will absolutely be important, but I think diplomacy and propaganda and institution building will absolutely be the main statecraft and foreign policy tools the States of the Church lead with. |
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Post by raharris1973 on Aug 13, 2024 15:37:22 GMT
A good question to ponder upon is that of the spread of gunpowder. Is it going to benefit Christians disproportionately? But yes - it would benefit the Christians disproportionately compared to heathens and Muslims. The Franks would be on track to conquer any Lombard states naturally antagonistic to the Papal States, to the north of the Papal States. I think the Lombards had regardless by the 700s converted from Arianism to Catholicism, Lombard-descended Benevento and other Duchies could still rule the south of the peninsula. Perhaps Papal provided tech helps Byzantines prevent Sicily and Calabria from from falling to the Aghlabids invading from North Africa in the ninth century. I anticipate the Franks allying with the Papal States and vice versa, rather than an antagonism developing. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_official_adoptions_of_ChristianityAlthough there was no official Rome - Constantinople split yet, doctrinal differences had certainly developed over time, and uptime Rome would probably be insistent on the filio que statement of the creed which could bring about a split precociously. Rome would probably try to ensure its Latin-based alphabets and printed matter and orientations and creeds would spread dominantly through southeast, central, and east European slavic nations as they they are brought into the Christian fold over the 700s AD and no later than the historic 800s AD in locations like Croatia, Serbia, Bulgaria, and the Rus Principalities, and while Rome would not compete with Constantinople as a trade entrepôt of value to people living upriver or next to the Black Sea, if Rome keeps its Renaissance and Baroque architecture and artistry intact, it can outshine Constantinople in splendor it shows to visitors at least, in addition to what it can pre-package for its missionaries in terms of printed an pictorial material. For a stretch of the 700s and 800s the Byzantines were going through the iconoclast controversy. 1770s Rome would clearly weigh in as iconophiles.  Attachments:
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Aug 13, 2024 16:29:47 GMT
A good question to ponder upon is that of the spread of gunpowder. Is it going to benefit Christians disproportionately? I would seriously give the Pontiff, by the 1770s, credit for having moral debates on the merits of "arms control", and attempting to limit the spread of gunpowder, not just use it to maximize Christian power. He and the Cardinals will surely be worried about the potential for gunpowder's use in Christian versus Christian, even Catholic versus Catholic, warfare and crime, while they will also have to consider its value as a tool in protecting Christian and innocent lives (convertible and salvageable one) from bloody heathen (Viking, Avar, Magyar, Mongol), and infidel (Muslim) massacre or enslavement. The Papal States Army and Swiss Guard will absolutely be important, but I think diplomacy and propaganda and institution building will absolutely be the main statecraft and foreign policy tools the States of the Church lead with.
I think the problem here will be the contrast between avoiding Catholic v Catholic fighting and also protecting Christians, especially those from the Papal states seeking to extend its influence. The former would greatly restrict the use of gunpowder outside its own territory but the latter greatly increases the spread of the relevant knowledge. It only takes one person with the knowledge who is either resentful about something, corrupt or simply looking for power and prestige getting away from the Papal states and someone else has the knowledge. The most likely possible alternative candidates could be the Byzantine or the Frankish empire. - Possibly someone with knowledge might pass it to the Lombards but assuming that events in 772 happen as OTL with the Lombard's attacking the Papacy and then Charlemagne defeating them there wouldn't be the time for the Lombards to be able to use it effectively I think. Mind you here, if they react in time the Papacy might defeat the Lombards without needing support.
A lot would also depend on the relationship between Charlemagne and the new Pope. Would the former recognize the latter as the true pope as opposed to the one suddenly replaced? That was Adrian I who was to clash with the Lombards by supporting Charlemagne against them and the family of Charlemagne's deposed brother Carloman who was supported by the Lombards, prompting the Lombards attacking the Papal states and Charlemagne coming to their aid, defeating the Lombards decisively. However this didn't happen until 772 itself so not sure what the situation will be. Pius VI will probably support Charlemagne again here but may not be clear. He will know historically that Charlemagne supported the Papacy but also that his descendants, especially those who ruled what became the HRE rulers were often bitter rivals of the Papacy.
There would also be the question of church doctrine. There was a level of dispute between Adrian I and Charlemagne over the stance on icons, although both supported the general practice. Also I don't know what other differences there would be other than some basic issues like the establishment of celibacy for the clergy in the centuries after 772.
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Post by raharris1973 on Aug 13, 2024 18:18:11 GMT
I think the problem here will be the contrast between avoiding Catholic v Catholic fighting and also protecting Christians, especially those from the Papal states seeking to extend its influence. The former would greatly restrict the use of gunpowder outside its own territory but the latter greatly increases the spread of the relevant knowledge. That is the key tension indeed. It only takes one person with the knowledge who is either resentful about something, corrupt or simply looking for power and prestige getting away from the Papal states and someone else has the knowledge. The most likely possible alternative candidates could be the Byzantine or the Frankish empire. They would value this knowledge, and possibly as few as two people would have all the combined knowledge of workable chemical recipes for gunpowder and gunsmithing and knowledge of all raw precursor materials and how to obtain and treatment, which should be obtainable in territories as large as the Byzantine or Frankish. Though, it might more realistically take a conspiracy of half a dozen or more people with complementary skills to replicate the soup to nuts process from gunpowder and musket ball manufacture to 18th century musket and bayonet manufacture and machining it all to sufficient precision. Possibly someone with knowledge might pass it to the Lombards but assuming that events in 772 happen as OTL with the Lombard's attacking the Papacy and then Charlemagne defeating them there wouldn't be the time for the Lombards to be able to use it effectively I think. Yes- I don't think the northern Italian Lombards located between Rome and Francia/Frankland will have the time to adopt uptime technology and distribute it for military effect before their defeat. The surviving Lombards of southern Italy, around Benevento may have a shot, no pun intended. |
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Post by raharris1973 on Aug 13, 2024 18:34:05 GMT
It's crazy, but the latest time wikipedia reports a population figure for the Papal States is 1500 AD, so I don't have a population figure for 1776.
In 1500, their population was 2 million. However, this was probably with a bias towards men most likely or towards people, male and female, with celibacy commitments, somewhat limiting its potential for uptime natural population growth compared to downtime neighbors. However, there would be two countervailing factors against that. 2 million would likely be a pretty darn high population in the neighborhood of Western Europe in the 770s, the Papal States had a substantial laity population. Although it was ruled by celibate clergy, with them having the most prestige compared to the non-celibate peasant, worker, middle-class populations, there were Roman and provincial nobilities, usually with blood relations to Cardinals and Popes.
At any given time in 1770s Rome there would be a decently large number of foreign students for strictly religious studies but also those not necessarily pre-committed to a celibate path or ignorant of secular affairs, and plenty of mostly noble and mostly rich, "tourists" of noble rank.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Aug 13, 2024 19:42:06 GMT
I think the problem here will be the contrast between avoiding Catholic v Catholic fighting and also protecting Christians, especially those from the Papal states seeking to extend its influence. The former would greatly restrict the use of gunpowder outside its own territory but the latter greatly increases the spread of the relevant knowledge. That is the key tension indeed. It only takes one person with the knowledge who is either resentful about something, corrupt or simply looking for power and prestige getting away from the Papal states and someone else has the knowledge. The most likely possible alternative candidates could be the Byzantine or the Frankish empire. They would value this knowledge, and possibly as few as two people would have all the combined knowledge of workable chemical recipes for gunpowder and gunsmithing and knowledge of all raw precursor materials and how to obtain and treatment, which should be obtainable in territories as large as the Byzantine or Frankish. Though, it might more realistically take a conspiracy of half a dozen or more people with complementary skills to replicate the soup to nuts process from gunpowder and musket ball manufacture to 18th century musket and bayonet manufacture and machining it all to sufficient precision. Possibly someone with knowledge might pass it to the Lombards but assuming that events in 772 happen as OTL with the Lombard's attacking the Papacy and then Charlemagne defeating them there wouldn't be the time for the Lombards to be able to use it effectively I think. Yes- I don't think the northern Italian Lombards located between Rome and Francia/Frankland will have the time to adopt uptime technology and distribute it for military effect before their defeat. The surviving Lombards of southern Italy, around Benevento may have a shot, no pun intended.
Yes a good point. It did occur to me that the Lombards won't have time to manufacture guns or artillery but of course they would also need to get that knowledge as well as it could be a lot more difficult than the information on the formulae for gunpowder.
Depending on how much industry the region had at the time and how much of a military population they could support they could become a formidable power in their own right even without the support of the Franks as even apart from gunpowder weapons their knowledge of metallurgy and tactics could make non-gunpowder forces a class above other nations of the time.
One other factor might be ships in the harbours as they could include people from other countries and also be fairly self-contained so you could see at least some of them seek to make their fortune some way or another. This could include for the larger ones trying adventuring in the new world - doubt they would try reaching the Indian Ocean - or for other selling their abilities to other states or simply turning pirate, although they would have issues replacing some of the equipment they have.
Also if any of them are Protestant or otherwise no great friend of the Catholic church, say another nationality, they could try passing information to opponents of the Papacy, either the Lombard, possibly the Byzantine or the Muslims.
One other point with such a potential power if they get themselves established could the Papacy trying starting crusades? Either against the Muslims to the south, who are already a threat to shipping or Byzantine depending on the Pope's view of the empire. The Greek empire still holds Sicily at this point so that could be a target.
I think shipping could have a big impact here for multiple reasons. The ships are a potential wild card as sailors with some leadership could be very attractive to many down-time powers and their also the easiest way of getting to many areas that the 772AD world doesn't know of it.
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