michelvan
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Post by michelvan on Aug 7, 2024 16:27:14 GMT
My issue in senario is NO WW1 the Bismark system of Alliance let sooner or later to total war what let that Colonials troops were use on the West front
Belgium refuse the use of there Congolese as Colonials troops in fear they one day rebel and take over Belgium Congo after WW2 Belgium start heavy in invest in Congo with house building, energy supply, rural development and health-care infrastructure. also give Congolese more rights what let Belgium to gave up there Colony in 1960. after that it ended in Civil War, do the Cold War, Belgium political and economic forces meddling in Congo affairs.
France had other issues since they used Colonials troops mostly Algerians durin WW1 and WW2. they play later important role as instructor in Algerian War of independent...
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Post by Max Sinister on Aug 11, 2024 10:16:38 GMT
Same in Somaliland, where Mogadishu (they called it Mogadiscio) already had 40% Italians.
Its one thing in the colonial capital where there are probably relatively a lot of facilities as well as a lot of decent jobs and greater security. In the outskirts where there's a lot less of those and also of Italian settlers which would be another negative point.
One small point in that Somaliland is the term normally used for the northern region which was the British protectorate. Italian Somalia was to the south of this. Today yes - but in colonial times, people spoke of British/Italian/French Somaliland. (I may have spent too much time reading up on WW2.)
Other than that, I agree with your post.
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Post by Max Sinister on Aug 11, 2024 10:27:07 GMT
My issue in senario is NO WW1 That's a solid conclusion. The question is how to get the premise working. All major powers were involved in alliances, both sides disliked each other, fanatics on both sides became louder and louder, anything might have become reason for a war, and even if a minor crisis was "solved", this was just what the Anglos call "kicking the can down the road". Take the second Morocco crisis: France got Morocco, Germany got a piece of Congo - but this just seems to have whetted their appetite. And both became more discontent because they didn't get all they wanted.
That's the big question: Even if we avoid Sarajevo - can the powers "kick the can down the road" long enough that they forget about wanting to make war?
Especially since pretty much anyone expected that A-H wouldn't survive the death of Franz Joseph, and we know when that happened.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Aug 11, 2024 12:38:46 GMT
The issue might be what prevents OTL WWI? It could be something some time earlier than 1914, such as Tirpitz being discredited and hence Germany doesn't make a major naval challenge, pushing Britain into the opposing camp, or say Germany being less belligerent overall but either of those would really need a different Wilhelm II. If say the assassination of FF is avoid, it took a hell of a lot of luck for it OTL then there might be tension about attempts which possibly prompts international diplomatic pressure on Serbia and possibly Russia, knowing that the country wasn't ready for war, exerting its influence to force Serbia to clear out some of its extremists.
The two events that might prompt a change could be: a) When Franz Joseph dies a surviving FF becomes emperor. He was an autocrat but seems to have been more aware of Austria's weaknesses, doubtful of the alliance with Germany - or at least its more aggressive characteristics - and willing to consider major internal reform to give the Slavs more say. This could prompt a civil war with the Hungarian aristocrats and possibly parts of the military rebelling but probably being fairly quickly defeated. Assuming nothing prompts a general war here that definitely kicks a general war down the road as Germany on its own isn't strong enough while France and Russia wouldn't be likely to be too aggressive, especially since that would alienate Britain and possibly Italy. This could cause enough of a delay for either things to boil over in Russia internally or Germany to see real political change restricting the power of the monarchy and military.
b) If war was to be avoided until 1916 Russia has upgraded its railway system so the Germans would probably accept their not strong enough for a suddenly strike to defeat France before Russia can come to their aid. - This was pretty much the case anyway in 1914 but the Germans didn't realise that. Also by this time with 5 QE class BB and probably the full 8 R class BBs the RN would have made clear Germany couldn't win the naval war, at least not with capital ships. Those changes would - unless they did something rash - prompt Germany to a defensive stance which would make a Franco-Russian attack in return extremely difficult. Again Britain, especially with its security at sea secured and possibly internal conflict in Ireland - plus other parts of the country if there needed to be a military intervention to suppress a Unionist rebellion - would be very unlikely to support such an attack. In fact if the US is launching its initial 1916 naval programme in this case Britain as well as Japan would feel a need to respond.
Basically without the CP alliance feeling strong enough to attack and with Britain unwilling to support offensive actions by the Franco-Russian alliance I don't think they would get offensive either in the medium term and that gives time for other events to cool things further, especially probably social changes in Germany, Russia and Austria.
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michelvan
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Post by michelvan on Aug 13, 2024 11:19:12 GMT
That's a solid conclusion. The question is how to get the premise working. Even if Gavrilo Princip never kill Archduke Franz Ferdinand Carl Ludwig Joseph Maria of Austria. Sooner or later another crisis will show op, leading to World War 1. it depend how the diplomats deal with situation, but with leader like Emperor Wilhelm II. the change is high for War and even if prevent war the Social problems in Empire of Britain, Germany, Austria-Hungary, Russia, the French Republic, Spain and Italy. would later let to civil unrest or civil War like Irish wars or Desintegration of Austria-Hungary what could let to WW1 we are just delaying unavoidable here
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Aug 13, 2024 17:44:16 GMT
That's a solid conclusion. The question is how to get the premise working. Even if Gavrilo Princip never kill Archduke Franz Ferdinand Carl Ludwig Joseph Maria of Austria. Sooner or later another crisis will show op, leading to World War 1. it depend how the diplomats deal with situation, but with leader like Emperor Wilhelm II. the change is high for War and even if prevent war the Social problems in Empire of Britain, Germany, Austria-Hungary, Russia, the French Republic, Spain and Italy. would later let to civil unrest or civil War like Irish wars or Desintegration of Austria-Hungary what could let to WW1 we are just delaying unavoidable here
I wouldn't say something like OTL WWI is inevitable, although even if the OTL assassination of FF and his wife were avoided I think its likely that there's going to be a big clash in the next ~10 yeas because of the issues you mention, quite likely probably within 5. If it doesn't cause a big conflict within a decade there's likely to be a major war within a generation or so as its so long since a massive war that prompts aversion to such conflicts and a lot of tension. Also the prime reason there's probably been no war between great powers in the last 70-80 years, the existence of multiple powers with reliable nuclear weapons is not just not in existence but not even visible at this time.
However if war could be avoided for ~5 years you could see significant changes in the balance of power and possible changes in the social order and/or stability of certain countries it could well be that when a major war begins its either not solely in Europe or has different players on the two sides.
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nomommsen
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Post by nomommsen on Aug 15, 2024 19:22:45 GMT
My issue in senario is NO WW1 ... Especially since pretty much anyone expected that A-H wouldn't survive ...
I won't rule out a surving FF being able to maintain in whatever form the furtehr existance of the Habsburg-Monarchy - may it be a double-, triple-, quadruple- of whatever number of 'crowns' it might take to be dumped on his head. ... do we? The final Pneumonia he dies of could very likely have been the result of some wlak in the parks in damned cold winter during the visit of the bavarian king- who wanted to discuss some matters regarding some reshuffling of real estates in best Vienna Congress manner ( like parts of prussian Silesia for the Habsburg for some prussian gains in Poland leading due to 'balancing' Bavaria gaining Elsass-Lothringen - or parts of ... trule hilarious what this man began already in 1914 to 'participate' on war gains) Without the war - in time - such a visit might not happen what might avoid the cold exacerbating into said Pneumonia. He might have been able to get going for another ... 3-6-9- (?) months.
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nomommsen
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Post by nomommsen on Aug 15, 2024 19:23:07 GMT
That's a solid conclusion. The question is how to get the premise working. ... we are just delaying unavoidable here I have to admit ... once I thought the same but I changed my mind. There are possibilities to avoid any such BIG war for ... a loong time though it ofc needs in every case some ... 'cooperation' of the actors on the scene. IMHO history or the process of events becomming history do not follow 'rules' like natural rule of biology, chemistry, physics or mathematics. Some times some people make some decisions - which all cound change and change then a LOT of other decisions by other people (y'know ... 'butterflies' ). There might be circumstances making the one or other decision more probable or even 'general trends' ... but no society is determined to follow to the full such trends and there can be spectra from deep black to gleaming white and every color and shade of gray ion between.
Regarding WW 1 ... there were numerous possibilities long before but also within the last 10 years before 1914 that might have change the further development substantially. I.e. Treatry of Björkö was 'forced through' by Willy and Nikky in 1907 possibly leading to a renewal of the Three-Emperors League coupled with the thoufgh still autocratic but nevertheless more ethnic 'equalling' reforms of a non-assasinated FF or ... Bethmann-Hollweg finds in 1912 his balls and pushes some naval treaty through against Tirpitz and Kaiser Bill (convincing him in some 'brighter' moment) leading to some british#german 'understanding' regarding the colonial question as maybe the 2. treaty about the prtuguise colonies might be an indicator.
During the July-crisis there were also some opportunities that might have delated war at that moment ... with some other more 'clever' decisions afterwards such a delay might last ... and last ... and .. eventually in the meantime the involved states motivations and priorities change and with them the incentive for war.
Sry but ... I won't rule out such a possibilty anymore.
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nomommsen
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Post by nomommsen on Aug 15, 2024 19:30:34 GMT
Colonialism may never entirely end without the World Wars. Namibia, Libya, and Eritrea were heading towards European majorities, with less likely options being Algeria and South Africa, while large pluralities would exist in Rhodesia, Kenya, Ethiopia and perhaps a few more. ... like that idea ...
Even today there are 'colonies' of Britain and France. ITTL there could be 'territories' staying in some relation to their 'motherland' from direct rule over autonomy to kinda dominion-status or even integrated with some kind of 'home rule'. ... not each and every colonial territory but ... some at last. If ... there would at some point given these colonies some ethnic recognition and cultural 'freedom' the drive towards independance might be much lesser and ... sometimes it comes even with some economical 'plus' staying colony (or any other of forementioned 'in-betweens') i.e. easy(ier) access to markets, finances etc..
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ewellholmes
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Post by ewellholmes on Aug 17, 2024 20:58:06 GMT
Colonialism may never entirely end without the World Wars. Namibia, Libya, and Eritrea were heading towards European majorities, with less likely options being Algeria and South Africa, while large pluralities would exist in Rhodesia, Kenya, Ethiopia and perhaps a few more. ... like that idea ...
Even today there are 'colonies' of Britain and France. ITTL there could be 'territories' staying in some relation to their 'motherland' from direct rule over autonomy to kinda dominion-status or even integrated with some kind of 'home rule'. ... not each and every colonial territory but ... some at last. If ... there would at some point given these colonies some ethnic recognition and cultural 'freedom' the drive towards independance might be much lesser and ... sometimes it comes even with some economical 'plus' staying colony (or any other of forementioned 'in-betweens') i.e. easy(ier) access to markets, finances etc..
I really don't think people get how contingent decolonization was on Europe being exhausted after two wars and then the United States and the Soviet Union-ideological powers stridently opposed to Colonialism-coming into prominence as the two main powers not just in Europe but the world.
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nomommsen
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Post by nomommsen on Aug 17, 2024 21:07:11 GMT
I really don't think people get how contingent decolonization was on Europe being exhausted after two wars and then the United States and the Soviet Union-ideological powers stridently opposed to Colonialism-coming into prominence as the two main powers not just in Europe but the world. ... well exactly that's an important part of the point: No world wars
No such 'exhaustion' of the european people No bipolar world of 2 ideological Superpowers as 'follow up' of former colonialism
resulting in a very different way how relations between 'motherland' and colonies would/could/might develop over time.
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ewellholmes
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Post by ewellholmes on Aug 17, 2024 21:09:13 GMT
I really don't think people get how contingent decolonization was on Europe being exhausted after two wars and then the United States and the Soviet Union-ideological powers stridently opposed to Colonialism-coming into prominence as the two main powers not just in Europe but the world. ... well exactly that's an important part of the point: No world wars
No such 'exhaustion' of the european people No bipolar world of 2 ideological Superpowers as 'follow up' of former colonialism
resulting in a very different way how relations between 'motherland' and colonies would/could/might develop over time.
I think in a situation where the World Wars have been avoided, "colonialism" could be maintained until the present, with certain areas retained as integral parts of the European homelands. People forget as late as 1960 IIRC, like a third of the planet was European. Without multiple generations of Europeans being obliterated as well as more investment in the colonies speeding up their demographic transition, a lot can change.
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Post by Max Sinister on Aug 18, 2024 1:09:41 GMT
... we are just delaying unavoidable here I have to admit ... once I thought the same but I changed my mind. There are possibilities to avoid any such BIG war for ... a loong time though it ofc needs in every case some ... 'cooperation' of the actors on the scene. IMHO history or the process of events becomming history do not follow 'rules' like natural rule of biology, chemistry, physics or mathematics. I do think it does. The problem is "only" that its elements (humans) are a) very many and b) also very different.
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