WI: Colonialism without ww1

Today yes - but in colonial times, people spoke of British/Italian/French Somaliland. (I may have spent too much time reading up on WW2.)

Other than that, I agree with your post.

   The issue might be what prevents OTL WWI? It could be something some time earlier than 1914, such as Tirpitz being discredited and hence Germany doesn't make a major naval challenge, pushing Britain into the opposing camp, or say Germany being less belligerent overall but either of those would really need a different Wilhelm II.  If say the assassination of FF is avoid, it took a hell of a lot of luck for it OTL then there might be tension about attempts which possibly prompts international diplomatic pressure on Serbia and possibly Russia, knowing that the country wasn't ready for war, exerting its influence to force Serbia to clear out some of its extremists.

  The two events that might prompt a change could be:

a)  When Franz Joseph dies a surviving FF becomes emperor.  He was an autocrat but seems to have been more aware of Austria's weaknesses, doubtful of the alliance with Germany - or at least its more aggressive characteristics - and willing to consider major internal reform to give the Slavs more say.  This could prompt a civil war with the Hungarian aristocrats and possibly parts of the military rebelling but probably being fairly quickly defeated.  Assuming nothing prompts a general war here that definitely kicks a general war down the road as Germany on its own isn't strong enough while France and Russia wouldn't be likely to be too aggressive, especially since that would alienate Britain and possibly Italy.  This could cause enough of a delay for either things to boil over in Russia internally or Germany to see real political change restricting the power of the monarchy and military.

b)  If war was to be avoided until 1916 Russia has upgraded its railway system so the Germans would probably accept their not strong enough for a suddenly strike to defeat France before Russia can come to their aid.  - This was pretty much the case anyway in 1914 but the Germans didn't realise that.  Also by this time with 5 QE class BB and probably the full 8 R class BBs the RN would have made clear Germany couldn't win the naval war, at least not with capital ships.  Those changes would - unless they did something rash - prompt Germany to a defensive stance which would make a Franco-Russian attack in return extremely difficult.  Again Britain, especially with its security at sea secured and possibly internal conflict in Ireland  - plus other parts of the country if there needed to be a military intervention to suppress a Unionist rebellion - would be very unlikely to support such an attack.  In fact if the US is launching its initial 1916 naval programme in this case Britain as well as Japan would feel a need to respond. 

  Basically without the CP alliance feeling strong enough to attack and with Britain unwilling to support offensive actions by the Franco-Russian alliance I don't think they would get offensive either in the medium term and that gives time for other events to cool things further, especially probably social changes in Germany, Russia and Austria.

  I wouldn't say something like OTL WWI is inevitable, although even if the OTL assassination of FF and his wife were avoided I think its likely that there's going to be a big clash in the next ~10 yeas because of the issues you mention, quite likely probably within 5.  If it doesn't cause a big conflict within a decade there's likely to be a major war within a generation or so as its so long since a massive war that prompts aversion to such conflicts and a lot of tension.  Also the prime reason there's probably been no war between great powers in the last 70-80 years, the existence of multiple powers with reliable nuclear weapons is not just not in existence but not even visible at this time. 

  However if war could be avoided for ~5 years you could see significant changes in the balance of power and possible changes in the social order and/or stability of certain countries it could well be that when a major war begins its either not solely in Europe or has different players on the two sides.

I have to admit ... once I thought the same but I changed my mind. There are possibilities to avoid any such BIG war for ... a loong time though it ofc needs in every case some ... 'cooperation' of the actors on the scene. 

IMHO history or the process of events becomming history do not follow 'rules' like natural rule of biology, chemistry, physics or mathematics. Some times some people make some decisions - which all cound change and change then a LOT of other decisions by other people (y'know ... 'butterflies' ). There might be circumstances making the one or other decision more probable or even 'general trends' ... but no society is determined to follow to the full such trends and there can be spectra from deep black to gleaming white and every color and shade of gray ion between.

Regarding WW 1 ... there were numerous possibilities long before but also within the last 10 years before 1914 that might have change the further development substantially. 

I.e. Treatry of Björkö was 'forced through' by Willy and Nikky in 1907 possibly leading to a renewal of the Three-Emperors League coupled with the thoufgh still autocratic but nevertheless more ethnic 'equalling' reforms of a non-assasinated FF

or ... Bethmann-Hollweg finds in 1912 his balls and pushes some naval treaty through against Tirpitz and Kaiser Bill (convincing him in some 'brighter' moment) leading to some british#german 'understanding' regarding the colonial question as maybe the 2. treaty about the prtuguise colonies might be an indicator.

During the July-crisis there were also some opportunities that might have delated war at that moment ... with some other more 'clever' decisions afterwards such a delay might last ... and last ... and .. eventually in the meantime the involved states motivations and priorities change and with them the incentive for war.

Sry but ... I won't rule out such a possibilty anymore.