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Post by Otto Kretschmer on Jul 4, 2024 11:46:21 GMT
1650 AD Denmark, Norway and Sweden are ISOTed to 793 AD. What's their impact on Europe and the world?
For sure they possess technological superiority that the Vikings could only dream of - gunpowder, plate armor, advanced fortifications etc. Their population is also larger compared to the population of Scandinavia in 793 AD. Any army that stands in their way is going to be pulverized, no doubt about it.
Are we going to see the same pattern of outward expansion as in OTL Viking Age?
In terms of internal politics, I guess Sweden is going to conquer Denmark-Norway with relative ease - it has by far the strongest army in Scandinavia and after the ISOT it no longer needs to deploy such significant forces to guard against Russia and Poland.
What do you guys think?
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575
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Post by 575 on Jul 4, 2024 13:19:13 GMT
Denmark-Norway and Sweden-Finland have just ended war by 1648 leaving this map:  Thing is both nations have lost their mercenary recruiting bases in HRE, Low Countries and Baltics. Another thing Sweden-Finland is ruled by Queen Kristina who OTL renounced the Throne 1654 and Charles X became king. Queen Kristina was a strongwilled ruler and didn't engage in new wars once the Thirty Years War had ended. So what happens is dependant upon how the situation is perceived within Scandinavia and abdicating to go to Rome might not have the appeal to Kristina ITTL.
BTW Charles X following his ascendancy to the Throne made quite a number of reforms before going to war in Poland to win back the land for the Swedish claim - here he might have a rather easy going.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jul 4, 2024 21:47:12 GMT
Denmark-Norway and Sweden-Finland have just ended war by 1648 leaving this map: Thing is both nations have lost their mercenary recruiting bases in HRE, Low Countries and Baltics. Another thing Sweden-Finland is ruled by Queen Kristina who OTL renounced the Throne 1654 and Charles X became king. Queen Kristina was a strongwilled ruler and didn't engage in new wars once the Thirty Years War had ended. So what happens is dependant upon how the situation is perceived within Scandinavia and abdicating to go to Rome might not have the appeal to Kristina ITTL.
BTW Charles X following his ascendancy to the Throne made quite a number of reforms before going to war in Poland to win back the land for the Swedish claim - here he might have a rather easy going.
Well that will complicate matters, especially with Kristina as queen. A monarch who eventually gave up the throne for religion is going to be rather oddly placed in a Protestant state with the Papacy now deep in the dark ages. Not sure what the result will be here. Given the different nature of the Catholic church here and that it hasn't become as dominant as by ~1500 its possible that some form of compromise might occur but on what basis would be unclear.
At this point there are still a fair number of pagan states and also the strongest 'old' Christian state is the Byzantine empire. Throw in a Protestant Scandinavia and its going to be interesting.
I doubt either of the kingdoms, especially after the bloodbath of the TYW just concluded and as you say with the foreign mercenary sources you mentioned now lost, are going to go Vikinging. What relations they have with dark age Christian Europe would be difficult to say but probably not as violent as OTL. However with their knowledge of the world Denmark at least and Sweden if it can might opt for what they could see as more favourable areas for settlement/exploitation in the Americas - albeit those will be somewhat different to what their history books tell them. Or Sweden might also look east and build a new and different Russia which is going to be a nasty surprise to any Mongol or other horde heading west once its established.
Although there would be the issue of the language difference one huge factor is that both states have printing presses and hence can generate books at a level that the 793 world can not even imagine. If they can translate books into other languages and also persuade local rulers - who are the only ones other than the clergy likely to be able to read - that could greatly increase their influence.
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575
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Post by 575 on Jul 5, 2024 9:48:11 GMT
If some sort of sanity may rule Scandinavia Sweden-Finland will look to Poland first to establish Wasa rule and in the doing gobble up the remaining Baltics - Latvia, Lithuania, Prussia and the Wend's on the Baltic Southern shores. It will keep them occupied for some time. Indelningsverket isn't yet in place in Sweden-Finland - would only become established 1682 regarding the Soldiers though an earlier system regarding Officers is in force. So Sweden-Finland isn't just a Military steamroller - yet! Sweden-Finland had been supported financially during the TYW by France which have vanished. As have other traditional allies of the Scandinavians. Denmark-Norway now have the Worlds or at least Europes largest Navy and with a large Danish Viking Army marauding in England that would be their natural way to go. Trading on the Gold Coast is in its infancy and the first Forts are about to be build there. The first trade have been done in the West Indies some 25 years ago which have led to establishing a West Indies Trading Co. Also Danish expeditions were active in the Indian Ocean battling the Portuguese and a trading post had been yielded by the Naik of Tanjore to Denmark - Trankebar. A Greenland company had been established for trade with Greenland though ITTL neigther Iceland nor Greenland have been reached by Norse - both being inhabitated with probably some Irish papar in Iceland. So whaling would be a Danish-Norwegian exclusive. Sailing those waters would be a much better experience than the Danes-Norwegians would be used to as they are now in the Early Medieval Optimum not in the Little Ice-Age. Due to the experiences of the last war (1648) Denmark is about to register all men able for military service in a National Army. The Danish King Frederik III have his own domestic problems as the sons-in-laws of his father King Christian IV is still politically very prominent making a strong faction among the Nobility which OTL he had to spend the first two years to get marginalized. The OTL thing is that Denmark-Norway to take on Sweden-Finland during Charles X campaign in Poland had to rely on allies that doesn't exist ITTL. The Danish-Norwegian Navy may try to intercept Charles if he leaves Sweden for Poland to sink his fleet and the transported Army. If Frederik III wait till Charles is engulfed in Poland he will lose Jutland but Charles will be caught on the Continent. Problem for Charles will be his lack of mercenaries - however both parts may try recruiting in 793 lands but the population will be much less then before due to European population still rebounding from the effects of the Fimbul Winter and previous Hun ravaging. Its estimated that Northern Europe only rebounded by around 750!
Both states however will benefit from the better weather with the Danes-Norwegians running amok on the Seas.
I would expect Frederik to let Charles run amok in Poland while building up Armies in both Denmark and Norway and hope for the best. Once Charles have pacified Poland and the Baltics he will need time to build them up before having a go at Denmark-Norway. If there is any sanity left in either Empire they will follow the example of Christian IV and Gustavus II which actually had a shortlived alliance during the TYW 1628.
OTOH how would You like a Viking Horde Regiment as part of the Danish Army - with flintlocks? And a Danish-Norwegian Army armed with repeter-muskets (Kalthoff's):
Depending on how things turn out this could be an interesting TL.
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Post by Otto Kretschmer on Jul 5, 2024 10:43:46 GMT
575Let's say there is sanity in both countries and they do form an alliance. What's the fate of England, France, Byzantium or anyone else in this scenario? Because at least for England I predict a Dano-Norwegian invasion, if not immediately, then in the next 25-30 years as Denmark-Norway recovers from the 30YW, a process aided by the fact that Scandinavia just went from the middle of the Little Ice Age to the beginning of the Medieval Warm Period.
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Post by 575 on Jul 5, 2024 11:19:45 GMT
575 Let's say there is sanity in both countries and they do form an alliance. What's the fate of England, France, Byzantium or anyone else in this scenario? Because at least for England I predict a Dano-Norwegian invasion, if not immediately, then in the next 25-30 years as Denmark-Norway recovers from the 30YW. They wouldn't even need an alliance just a mutual recognition that the objectives of the other wasn't theirs.
England become Danish. France - well it doesn't really exist as such its the western part of the Frankish Empire that is falling apart soon though still in the reign of Charlemagne! It will fall apart if going like OTL in 47 years with the death of Louis the Pious. I don't see the Danish-Norwegians doing much about it. England will be enough and they will be sailing the Seas possibly getting some Norwegians colonize Iceland and Greenland - those guys will be accostumed to the conditions which won't be any worse than they are used to - probably even better. Next on the list North America or possibly Cariabia though the latter will be occupied now by Taino etc.
Byzantium well not much intially its too far removed. Of course some suddenly overrunning Poland and the Baltics will be reported to Emperor Constantine VI as also to Charlemagne but for quite some time they will be outside the scope of the Scandinavians. The Byzantines are running their own war with the Arabs.
The loss of English alliances may force Charlemagne to "do something" though that will be ended quickly with the Danish-Norwegian Navy sinking his "something". However Charlemagne have just conquered the Saxons for the last time and will face uprisings in Frisia as levies are to be raised to fight the Avar's bordering Bavaria and a Moor incursion into Languedoc, a son campaigning in Lombardy all diverting Charlemagnes ability to do much about it.
Would the Saxons ask for Danish protection? Why not once they realize the strength of the newcomers. Will they get it - probably not. Frederik III will be too busy the initial years securing his own position and power then Charlemagne will have some time to go bashing Saxons as everybody else. However if he enters Holstein - then the northeastern part of Saxony he will step over the Danish line. That could actually turn the tables on Charlemagne rule.
In the Church there have been the Iconoclast struggle which may flare up prematurely due to this change in God's will. Might rock a number of boats.
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Post by Otto Kretschmer on Jul 5, 2024 12:38:38 GMT
575 You seem to be the right person to write a TL about this 
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Post by 575 on Jul 5, 2024 12:54:42 GMT
575 You seem to be the right person to write a TL about this Wouldn't be so sure - we need to have stevep look at it. Usually have some very good ideas.  BTW I'm still working on the Hitler attacks.. and have a few other projects brewing - but it certainly is an interesting idea. |
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Post by stevep on Jul 5, 2024 15:11:16 GMT
Admittedly I have a bias on the issue but would Denmark actually be that interested in invading England? They could definitely do it with their technological and organizational lead, plus probably a substantial demographic advantage as well but if they want bases in Britain, other than the islands [Shetlands/Orkneys] there are other options and is the relationship with England that bad in 1650? True England is now a much weaker state and separate from any Irish, Scots or Welsh lands and is Catholic but then so is the rest of western Europe. Would Denmark be better off seeking a good trading relationship and seeking to win the English - and possibly other British populations - over to their side. Or would it go for conquest which would definitely as you say raise concerns on the continent about this new heritic state.
Also if they did conquer the islands - as uncertain whether you mean just England but also the other kingdoms are they going to be seeking enslavement and mass replacement of the population by Danish setters? If not your going to have the lands with Danish rulers - a kind of hopefully less brutal post-Norman conquest period with a massive upgrade in all sorts of knowledge in many areas. Which could lead to England and Scotland themselves maintaining a national identity but leading the rest of western Europe in closing the gap on Scandinavia in a few years time. Which could have both good and bad results. I could easily see, with the knowledge and better life styles on offer a lot of Danish ideas, including Protestantism being adopted.
In 793 you have the attack on Lindisfarne and the 1st recorded Viking attack was in Dorset in 789. However depending on the timing of the ISOT the 793 attack might not occur. Or if it did the forces would find themselves with no homes to return to. I can't see the 1650 Danes being happy with Norse pagans suddenly turning up and claiming their historical lands nor with them seeking to practice their religion and culture - including things like slavery and possibly human sacrifice. This could also be an issue with Danish support of any Saxon or other north Germans resisting Charlemagne's attempts to extend his control so close to them. True the latter hasn't openly linked his empire with the Papacy yet although I believe his closely attached to the Catholic church. Mind you political interests might make them more willing to support pagan states here as a buffer, possibly with the expectation that under their influence they will be swayed towards the Danish church.
With a Swedish conquest of Poland and the rest of the Baltic shore east of Danish interests I'm not sure what impact that would be on the wider world - assuming as you say the Danes don't oppose this. The Magyars haven't arrived yet and its the Avars who are the nomads plaguing eastern and parts of central Europe - although not sure how far Khazar rule/influence reaches. Neither would stand up to a 1650 army in open battle but both, along with some of the barbarians tribes in rough terrain could cause problems in guerilla type resistance although this could result in some very nasty responses by either Danes or Swedes. However the Khazars could provide a trading partner with Byzantium empire and at least initially the Swedes might be content with this rather than seeking to control the full distance to the Black sea themselves.
What happens with Queen Kristiana in TTL? If she still feels inclined towards Catholicism she will find Rome a lot less comfortable in ~793-800 but at the same time she seems to have also been unpopular in Sweden for refusing to marry and hence produce a heir and for somewhat extravagant spending which caused economic problems. Will she change tack enough that she might keep the throne or does she still get replaced and if so is it peacefully or with nowhere suitable for exile does it need some sort of coup or civil war.
With any conquests in European lands how strongly would either state seek to push religion, language and other aspects of their culture and rule? It would probably vary from place to place and with the assorted rulers but that could affect a lot of things. Alternatively how much do they seek to keep things secret, such as gunpowder, naval technology and navigational knowledge, printing etc and how successfully?
One other thought here. As I think 575 mentioned there are probably even greater wealth to be gathered in the east than the west, at least to the 1650 world. What stepping stones would the Danes desire? W Africa is still very much the "white man's graveyard" but to get to the Indian Ocean they might seek both the Cape of Good Hope and also a presence in Iberia. The latter is divided at the moment with the bulk being under the exiled Umayyads but with assorted Christian and Muslim groups opposing him. Might they seek to ally with him or displace him? One other advantage of a position in southern Spain would be it gives then control of the entrance to the Med and also easier ability to trade with the lands on its shores. Which include the richest lands west of India at this point in world history.
Another one that occurred to me is what disease interactions would there be? Could the up-timers bring the Bubonic plague with them as it was still prone to frequent outbreaks in Europe in this time period and could be very nasty for the down timers. Ditto possibly with syphilis which is believed to have come from the new world so would also be unknown to the old world at this point in time. Not sure if anything could go the other way but some nasty plagues and the like hit a fair chunk of the world in the 8thC.
Anyway initial ideas on the subject.
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575
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Post by 575 on Jul 5, 2024 16:45:00 GMT
Admittedly I have a bias on the issue but would Denmark actually be that interested in invading England? They could definitely do it with their technological and organizational lead, plus probably a substantial demographic advantage as well but if they want bases in Britain, other than the islands [Shetlands/Orkneys] there are other options and is the relationship with England that bad in 1650? True England is now a much weaker state and separate from any Irish, Scots or Welsh lands and is Catholic but then so is the rest of western Europe. Would Denmark be better off seeking a good trading relationship and seeking to win the English - and possibly other British populations - over to their side. Or would it go for conquest which would definitely as you say raise concerns on the continent about this new heritic state.
Also if they did conquer the islands - as uncertain whether you mean just England but also the other kingdoms are they going to be seeking enslavement and mass replacement of the population by Danish setters? If not your going to have the lands with Danish rulers - a kind of hopefully less brutal post-Norman conquest period with a massive upgrade in all sorts of knowledge in many areas. Which could lead to England and Scotland themselves maintaining a national identity but leading the rest of western Europe in closing the gap on Scandinavia in a few years time. Which could have both good and bad results. I could easily see, with the knowledge and better life styles on offer a lot of Danish ideas, including Protestantism being adopted.
In 793 you have the attack on Lindisfarne and the 1st recorded Viking attack was in Dorset in 789. However depending on the timing of the ISOT the 793 attack might not occur. Or if it did the forces would find themselves with no homes to return to. I can't see the 1650 Danes being happy with Norse pagans suddenly turning up and claiming their historical lands nor with them seeking to practice their religion and culture - including things like slavery and possibly human sacrifice. This could also be an issue with Danish support of any Saxon or other north Germans resisting Charlemagne's attempts to extend his control so close to them. True the latter hasn't openly linked his empire with the Papacy yet although I believe his closely attached to the Catholic church. Mind you political interests might make them more willing to support pagan states here as a buffer, possibly with the expectation that under their influence they will be swayed towards the Danish church.
With a Swedish conquest of Poland and the rest of the Baltic shore east of Danish interests I'm not sure what impact that would be on the wider world - assuming as you say the Danes don't oppose this. The Magyars haven't arrived yet and its the Avars who are the nomads plaguing eastern and parts of central Europe - although not sure how far Khazar rule/influence reaches. Neither would stand up to a 1650 army in open battle but both, along with some of the barbarians tribes in rough terrain could cause problems in guerilla type resistance although this could result in some very nasty responses by either Danes or Swedes. However the Khazars could provide a trading partner with Byzantium empire and at least initially the Swedes might be content with this rather than seeking to control the full distance to the Black sea themselves.
What happens with Queen Kristiana in TTL? If she still feels inclined towards Catholicism she will find Rome a lot less comfortable in ~793-800 but at the same time she seems to have also been unpopular in Sweden for refusing to marry and hence produce a heir and for somewhat extravagant spending which caused economic problems. Will she change tack enough that she might keep the throne or does she still get replaced and if so is it peacefully or with nowhere suitable for exile does it need some sort of coup or civil war.
With any conquests in European lands how strongly would either state seek to push religion, language and other aspects of their culture and rule? It would probably vary from place to place and with the assorted rulers but that could affect a lot of things. Alternatively how much do they seek to keep things secret, such as gunpowder, naval technology and navigational knowledge, printing etc and how successfully?
One other thought here. As I think 575 mentioned there are probably even greater wealth to be gathered in the east than the west, at least to the 1650 world. What stepping stones would the Danes desire? W Africa is still very much the "white man's graveyard" but to get to the Indian Ocean they might seek both the Cape of Good Hope and also a presence in Iberia. The latter is divided at the moment with the bulk being under the exiled Umayyads but with assorted Christian and Muslim groups opposing him. Might they seek to ally with him or displace him? One other advantage of a position in southern Spain would be it gives then control of the entrance to the Med and also easier ability to trade with the lands on its shores. Which include the richest lands west of India at this point in world history.
Another one that occurred to me is what disease interactions would there be? Could the up-timers bring the Bubonic plague with them as it was still prone to frequent outbreaks in Europe in this time period and could be very nasty for the down timers. Ditto possibly with syphilis which is believed to have come from the new world so would also be unknown to the old world at this point in time. Not sure if anything could go the other way but some nasty plagues and the like hit a fair chunk of the world in the 8thC.
Anyway initial ideas on the subject.
I never would have guessed!  Really its just your ancestors..
Actually I made use of the wrong map - right the Viking Age just begun and when those guys return they'll get told to talk to their descendants about any land claim! Though Frederik III had a claim to England as his aunt - sister of Christian IV, Anna married James VI of Scotland, though lets leave it there. I don't think England would be an impossible but with the internal problems and possible fight with Charlemagne and the generally clouded situation with Sweden-Finland it won't be on the tables for some years.
Denmark-Norway however have the technology to go world imperial if it wants to. It already have established the basics. Still the initial years will be important.
Come to think of it the inter-scandinavian rivalry of who's leader is a tad irrelevant in this new world so if the rulers can agree to put it aside both will benefit in the long run.
Thought about epidemics - there had been a string in the early 1600's and one by April 1654 apparently the carrier was a girl on a Dutch ship coming from Danzig or Königsberg, East Prussia had been infected there. If so it won't happen ITTL but certainly a lot others. I would expect both uptime and downtime to be able to deliver such. Though Denmark had renowned doctors there was little they could do though the effect of cleanliness had been appreciated and was inwoked by the King during 1654 ordering "steets to be kept clean and clothes of deceased not to be sold to counter the spread". Such will be forthcoming. Syphilis have been in Denmark since ca. 1350. So its endemic.
Regarding Iberian Peninsular - Denmark had a long relationship with Portugal from the Middle Ages in Crusades in Iberia and Royals intermarriage so something could be worked out. Based on this they might be inclined to side with the Catholics rather then the abominable Muslims! I certainly hadn't thought of this but I like it. CRUSADE! Though OTOH trade have oft suppressed warfare if the reward was big enough so a deal with the Umayyads and such happened during the Crusades in Iberia - certainly not out. Cape of Good Hope would also be prize mainly to control trade on India and CHINA - the ladder the real bonanza to be made.
Tech spread - OTL shorly following this the Danes on Gold Coast began selling firearms as part of trade with local Kings. Perhaps Europe is too close to home OTOH Iberia might benefit from it - only to use against non-Christians of course! (like cross-bows.. that went great!)
Seems I have been talking myself into Your scheme! |
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Post by Otto Kretschmer on Jul 5, 2024 17:25:04 GMT
How extensive is the Dano Norwegian colonization of the Americas going to be?
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jul 6, 2024 15:56:03 GMT
Admittedly I have a bias on the issue but would Denmark actually be that interested in invading England? They could definitely do it with their technological and organizational lead, plus probably a substantial demographic advantage as well but if they want bases in Britain, other than the islands [Shetlands/Orkneys] there are other options and is the relationship with England that bad in 1650? True England is now a much weaker state and separate from any Irish, Scots or Welsh lands and is Catholic but then so is the rest of western Europe. Would Denmark be better off seeking a good trading relationship and seeking to win the English - and possibly other British populations - over to their side. Or would it go for conquest which would definitely as you say raise concerns on the continent about this new heritic state.
Also if they did conquer the islands - as uncertain whether you mean just England but also the other kingdoms are they going to be seeking enslavement and mass replacement of the population by Danish setters? If not your going to have the lands with Danish rulers - a kind of hopefully less brutal post-Norman conquest period with a massive upgrade in all sorts of knowledge in many areas. Which could lead to England and Scotland themselves maintaining a national identity but leading the rest of western Europe in closing the gap on Scandinavia in a few years time. Which could have both good and bad results. I could easily see, with the knowledge and better life styles on offer a lot of Danish ideas, including Protestantism being adopted.
In 793 you have the attack on Lindisfarne and the 1st recorded Viking attack was in Dorset in 789. However depending on the timing of the ISOT the 793 attack might not occur. Or if it did the forces would find themselves with no homes to return to. I can't see the 1650 Danes being happy with Norse pagans suddenly turning up and claiming their historical lands nor with them seeking to practice their religion and culture - including things like slavery and possibly human sacrifice. This could also be an issue with Danish support of any Saxon or other north Germans resisting Charlemagne's attempts to extend his control so close to them. True the latter hasn't openly linked his empire with the Papacy yet although I believe his closely attached to the Catholic church. Mind you political interests might make them more willing to support pagan states here as a buffer, possibly with the expectation that under their influence they will be swayed towards the Danish church.
With a Swedish conquest of Poland and the rest of the Baltic shore east of Danish interests I'm not sure what impact that would be on the wider world - assuming as you say the Danes don't oppose this. The Magyars haven't arrived yet and its the Avars who are the nomads plaguing eastern and parts of central Europe - although not sure how far Khazar rule/influence reaches. Neither would stand up to a 1650 army in open battle but both, along with some of the barbarians tribes in rough terrain could cause problems in guerilla type resistance although this could result in some very nasty responses by either Danes or Swedes. However the Khazars could provide a trading partner with Byzantium empire and at least initially the Swedes might be content with this rather than seeking to control the full distance to the Black sea themselves.
What happens with Queen Kristiana in TTL? If she still feels inclined towards Catholicism she will find Rome a lot less comfortable in ~793-800 but at the same time she seems to have also been unpopular in Sweden for refusing to marry and hence produce a heir and for somewhat extravagant spending which caused economic problems. Will she change tack enough that she might keep the throne or does she still get replaced and if so is it peacefully or with nowhere suitable for exile does it need some sort of coup or civil war.
With any conquests in European lands how strongly would either state seek to push religion, language and other aspects of their culture and rule? It would probably vary from place to place and with the assorted rulers but that could affect a lot of things. Alternatively how much do they seek to keep things secret, such as gunpowder, naval technology and navigational knowledge, printing etc and how successfully?
One other thought here. As I think 575 mentioned there are probably even greater wealth to be gathered in the east than the west, at least to the 1650 world. What stepping stones would the Danes desire? W Africa is still very much the "white man's graveyard" but to get to the Indian Ocean they might seek both the Cape of Good Hope and also a presence in Iberia. The latter is divided at the moment with the bulk being under the exiled Umayyads but with assorted Christian and Muslim groups opposing him. Might they seek to ally with him or displace him? One other advantage of a position in southern Spain would be it gives then control of the entrance to the Med and also easier ability to trade with the lands on its shores. Which include the richest lands west of India at this point in world history.
Another one that occurred to me is what disease interactions would there be? Could the up-timers bring the Bubonic plague with them as it was still prone to frequent outbreaks in Europe in this time period and could be very nasty for the down timers. Ditto possibly with syphilis which is believed to have come from the new world so would also be unknown to the old world at this point in time. Not sure if anything could go the other way but some nasty plagues and the like hit a fair chunk of the world in the 8thC.
Anyway initial ideas on the subject.
I never would have guessed! Really its just your ancestors..
Actually I made use of the wrong map - right the Viking Age just begun and when those guys return they'll get told to talk to their descendants about any land claim! Though Frederik III had a claim to England as his aunt - sister of Christian IV, Anna married James VI of Scotland, though lets leave it there. I don't think England would be an impossible but with the internal problems and possible fight with Charlemagne and the generally clouded situation with Sweden-Finland it won't be on the tables for some years.
Denmark-Norway however have the technology to go world imperial if it wants to. It already have established the basics. Still the initial years will be important.
Come to think of it the inter-scandinavian rivalry of who's leader is a tad irrelevant in this new world so if the rulers can agree to put it aside both will benefit in the long run.
Thought about epidemics - there had been a string in the early 1600's and one by April 1654 apparently the carrier was a girl on a Dutch ship coming from Danzig or Königsberg, East Prussia had been infected there. If so it won't happen ITTL but certainly a lot others. I would expect both uptime and downtime to be able to deliver such. Though Denmark had renowned doctors there was little they could do though the effect of cleanliness had been appreciated and was inwoked by the King during 1654 ordering "steets to be kept clean and clothes of deceased not to be sold to counter the spread". Such will be forthcoming. Syphilis have been in Denmark since ca. 1350. So its endemic.
Regarding Iberian Peninsular - Denmark had a long relationship with Portugal from the Middle Ages in Crusades in Iberia and Royals intermarriage so something could be worked out. Based on this they might be inclined to side with the Catholics rather then the abominable Muslims! I certainly hadn't thought of this but I like it. CRUSADE! Though OTOH trade have oft suppressed warfare if the reward was big enough so a deal with the Umayyads and such happened during the Crusades in Iberia - certainly not out. Cape of Good Hope would also be prize mainly to control trade on India and CHINA - the ladder the real bonanza to be made.
Tech spread - OTL shorly following this the Danes on Gold Coast began selling firearms as part of trade with local Kings. Perhaps Europe is too close to home OTOH Iberia might benefit from it - only to use against non-Christians of course! (like cross-bows.. that went great!)
Seems I have been talking myself into Your scheme!
I utterly deny having any mind control devices. 
On Britain I have a clear bias but whether its worthwhile Denmark seeking to directly control all of the British Isles and I doubt they would support pagans against fellow Christians, at least those who aren't hostile like Charlegmange could would be giving different interests in Germany. Mind you their just been through the TYW so problems with relations with the Catholic church would be an issue.
Must admit I avoided using the C word but some sort of crusade against aspects of Islam in areas where its not that established yet could be quite rewarding. A lot would depend of course on relations with the assorted other Christian and Muslim states.
Thinking given the situation in 1650 the eastern trades will look more attractive than the western prospects. For the northern powers settlement in N America has started but is yet to make that big an impact. The big revenue sources currently are the sugar islands - which needs some settlement and a fair number of slaves or other bonded workers in quite large numbers and the historical minerial wealth of Mexico and Peru but while the mines would be there - and richer without a100+ years of mining - but the very wealthy states to quickly conquer aren't there yet.
As such the known long term wealth of India, the spice islands and China already exist and shipping even small amounts of spice to Europe - which the Danes are likely to have a monopoly of for at least a couple of generations unless the Swedes try to challenge them - would be massively rewarding, including for monarchs that sponsor such activities. TTL its going to be the Danish East India company that's likely to be the main player in the region.
Anyway the game is soon to start to going for my forlorn hope.
Steve
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