Was Italian entry into WWI in spring 1915 on the Entente side a "now or never" situation?
Jul 2, 2024 18:52:29 GMT
Max Sinister likes this
Post by raharris1973 on Jul 2, 2024 18:52:29 GMT
Italy made the London Pact with the Entente on April 26th, 1915, officially revoked the Triple Alliance on May 3rd, 1915, and declared war on Austria on May 23rd. This was amid some public controversy. The King and the Foreign Minister favored joining the war on the Entente side and PM Salandra sought to sell Italy's loyalty to the highest bidder which became the Entente by the Treaty of London. But the majority of Cabinet, Parliament, the Church, conservatives, and mainstream Socialists opposed joining the war and leaving neutral status. Absolute public opinion is hard to gauge, but ultimately, the pro-war side had the bolder, louder, taking the streets in marches side of public opinion and possessed more decisive and less timid leaders, so they won the debate and policy control at that moment.
The timing of Italy's entry was that it was done after the Allies offered a good bargain, had survived the first year of conflict in the west, the Austrians had a truly disastrous 1914, and the Russians had been having a pretty good war so far, against the Austrians and Turks at least, despite some reverses in East Prussia. Austria had lost Galicia and had failed multiple times to make headway against Serbia, much less defeat her. It was only in the days after the Treaty of London and the final weeks before Italy declared war, that *joint* German-Austrian assaults, starting at Gorlice-Tarnow, began to roll back the Russians in Galicia and the Polish salient.
With that in mind, if the political nerve and backbone of anti-war Italian politicians and constituencies had been a bit stronger in spring 1915, or if it took a few weeks longer to negotiate the London Pact, and the result was to prevent any Italian declaration of war on Austria in May or June 1915, would Italy still have been interested in joining the Entente and declaring war on Austria in August or September, after the Austrians (with much, much German help) had visibly beaten the Russians and driven them back, and would I think, have appeared stronger? Would the Italians still have been interested enough, or confident enough, to declare war on Austria, and risk conflict with Austria's German protector, from October-December 1915, once Austria had also finally dispatched its Serbian nemesis, and now was joined by a new Bulgarian ally?
Italy would still covet Austrian land as much, but would she be as confident it would be so simple to obtain?
In other words, was spring 1915 a narrow, and closing, "window" for Italy to join the war on the Entente side? Was it a "now or never" situation for the Rome government?
Or might a fall 1915 Italian DoW on Austria have been plausible?
Or a 1916 DoW on Austria?
Or a 1917 DoW on Austria?
Or even a 1918 DoW on Austria?
The timing of Italy's entry was that it was done after the Allies offered a good bargain, had survived the first year of conflict in the west, the Austrians had a truly disastrous 1914, and the Russians had been having a pretty good war so far, against the Austrians and Turks at least, despite some reverses in East Prussia. Austria had lost Galicia and had failed multiple times to make headway against Serbia, much less defeat her. It was only in the days after the Treaty of London and the final weeks before Italy declared war, that *joint* German-Austrian assaults, starting at Gorlice-Tarnow, began to roll back the Russians in Galicia and the Polish salient.
With that in mind, if the political nerve and backbone of anti-war Italian politicians and constituencies had been a bit stronger in spring 1915, or if it took a few weeks longer to negotiate the London Pact, and the result was to prevent any Italian declaration of war on Austria in May or June 1915, would Italy still have been interested in joining the Entente and declaring war on Austria in August or September, after the Austrians (with much, much German help) had visibly beaten the Russians and driven them back, and would I think, have appeared stronger? Would the Italians still have been interested enough, or confident enough, to declare war on Austria, and risk conflict with Austria's German protector, from October-December 1915, once Austria had also finally dispatched its Serbian nemesis, and now was joined by a new Bulgarian ally?
Italy would still covet Austrian land as much, but would she be as confident it would be so simple to obtain?
In other words, was spring 1915 a narrow, and closing, "window" for Italy to join the war on the Entente side? Was it a "now or never" situation for the Rome government?
Or might a fall 1915 Italian DoW on Austria have been plausible?
Or a 1916 DoW on Austria?
Or a 1917 DoW on Austria?
Or even a 1918 DoW on Austria?
