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Post by Otto Kretschmer on Jun 27, 2024 7:32:17 GMT
What might it be and what might be it's consequences?
One possible PoD is better Russian performance in summer 1914, possibly due to having generals in charge other than Samsonov and Rennenkampf or due to no conflict between them. In this scenario ww1 might end as soon as 1914.
What do you guys think?
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jun 27, 2024 15:53:10 GMT
What might it be and what might be it's consequences? One possible PoD is better Russian performance in summer 1914, possibly due to having generals in charge other than Samsonov and Rennenkampf or due to no conflict between them. In this scenario ww1 might end as soon as 1914. What do you guys think?
Are you assuming no changes prior to the actual outbreak of war? If not then France doesn't introduce Plan XVII and has a much more rational defensive doctrine. That avoids the horrendous losses they suffer for minimal gains in the Alsace-Lorraine region and have markedly more forces available to switch north when they realise the full detail of the German plans with the main weight of the attack further north through Belgium than they had expected. Also it might mean that the forces in 5th Army, which along with the BEF are in the path of the main German offensive forces behave better without rash counter attacks.
This would mean that the Germans suffer somewhat higher casualties and advance somewhat slower. More importantly it does mean that a French counter strike on the overstretched German forces on the Marne - which would probably still occur roughly about there is markedly more powerful and hence German losses are heavier, possibly with the exposed German 1st army possibly largely destroyed, which would expose the flank of the 2nd army to the south. If this is then pushed you could see the Germans pushed back further and with greater losses, probably with a lot of heavier equipment such as artillery being lost in the retreat.
This is likely to liberate more of NE France and Belgium even with the advance being stalled at some point. Also a big hit to German morale and resources. Furthermore you might avoid Turkey joining the CPs which would be a major boost. Britain and Russia don't have to maintain large force on borders with the Ottomans, the straits can still be used for trade with Russia and its unlikely that Bulgaria will ever join the CPs.
The war is still likely to last at least 12-18 months as the German leadership will probably be very reluctant to accept defeat, especially since the allies will probably want fairly draconian terms, albeit probably not as bad as OTL 1919.
I don't think changes to the Russian leadership in their invasion of Prussia in 1914 would have a massive effect because there are fairly serious weaknesses in their organisation and logistics in that campaign that can't easily be overcome and its not going, at least in my opinion, to lead to anything like a march into Berlin.
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575
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Post by 575 on Jun 27, 2024 16:22:27 GMT
What might it be and what might be it's consequences? One possible PoD is better Russian performance in summer 1914, possibly due to having generals in charge other than Samsonov and Rennenkampf or due to no conflict between them. In this scenario ww1 might end as soon as 1914. What do you guys think? Its difficult to see the Russians doing better against the A-H than OTL though if 2 Army had been in Galizia they might have fared worse! V. Hötzedorf being indecisive made for this.
Regarding Germany.. well it isn't just a matter of generalship on the Russian side.
Terrain - for many years the Russians had deliberately NOT improved communications lines in Russian Poland leading to East Prussia because then the Germans would have difficulty in getting at Warsaw. Other side of coin being that the Russians with their close to zero logistics had an even worse time getting at the Germans. The Germans was able to utilized the very much build up railway network in East Prussia to shift units around fast.
Munitions - the Russians carried far less munitions into battle than did the Germans. Usually the Germans could deliver an Artillery punch 2-3 times as much as the Russians. Rather a bad thing especially when the Russian logistics network couldn't deliver whats needed to the front line units.
Radio - the Russians wasn't adverse to send messages in clear text. The Germans already had a grip on how to handle radio in a military context listening in on the Russians and thus getting informed of what's to happen. And with efficient staff work - and this is before Hindenburg and Ludendorff arrive at the scene - Col. v. Hoffman could present a plan to his commander v. Prittwitz of how to maul the eastern Russian Army - entrain - move southwest - detrain - maul the southern Russian Army.
As I understand the Russians had been far more efficient in mobilizing their troops than they themselves expected to so that was some of the reasons the logistics trail was faltering.
It is just issues that you don't solve by a change of command. The Russian Artillery are usually the strong element of the Russian Army - not at this time. The Russians also wanted to please the French to get going ASAP but this wasn't part of their plan. As they wasn't prepared to expect the unexpected and change plans accordingly they didn't.
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Post by Max Sinister on Jun 29, 2024 14:33:41 GMT
Quoted from here: "When Germany in WW1 invaded Belgium, they had to take the fortress of Lüttich / Liege first. This was not an easy nut to crack, however; in fact, it was about the strongest fortress in Europe. So the Germans started to attack it, but not very successful. And then one day Ludendorff who had nothing else to do came along, thought the fortress was already taken by the Germans, went to one door, knocked, and the Belgian soldiers opened. It could've gone both ways, but IOTL, Ludendorff had the guts to demand capitulation, and somehow the Belgians really gave in. Lüttich had fallen (only some forts continued to fight for some days), the German army could fight elsewhere, and Ludendorff was the hero of the day. So WI the Belgians had had the backbone to arrest that overconfident German general? The German march to the west would've been hampered, since Lüttich could probably hold out for a long time, and they would miss the troops - esp. since they also couldn't win OTL. And, one of the most competent generals was lost (and not even considered good by anyone, even if released or liberated later), and would be lacking in the East. Hindenburg still would be there, but he's not considered by everyone to be the brain of the team... in fact, Ludendorff later claimed that Hindenburg had slept through the battle of Tannenberg. Thus, the Russians might throw the Germans back behind the Weichsel / Vistula, taking the area where Germany got most of grain and milk from... peace in 1915 with the Allies winning?" Additionally: Prittwitz who had been in charge of the 8th Army suggested retreating behind the Vistula when he saw that not one but two Russian armies were attacking, so he was replaced by Hindenburg & Ludendorff. If the 8th Army had retreated, Germany would have lost at least 10% of the grain and milk produced. In a World War where they lacked food even so. |
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575
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Post by 575 on Jun 29, 2024 16:00:44 GMT
Quoted from here: "When Germany in WW1 invaded Belgium, they had to take the fortress of Lüttich / Liege first. This was not an easy nut to crack, however; in fact, it was about the strongest fortress in Europe. So the Germans started to attack it, but not very successful. And then one day Ludendorff who had nothing else to do came along, thought the fortress was already taken by the Germans, went to one door, knocked, and the Belgian soldiers opened. It could've gone both ways, but IOTL, Ludendorff had the guts to demand capitulation, and somehow the Belgians really gave in. Lüttich had fallen (only some forts continued to fight for some days), the German army could fight elsewhere, and Ludendorff was the hero of the day. So WI the Belgians had had the backbone to arrest that overconfident German general? The German march to the west would've been hampered, since Lüttich could probably hold out for a long time, and they would miss the troops - esp. since they also couldn't win OTL. And, one of the most competent generals was lost (and not even considered good by anyone, even if released or liberated later), and would be lacking in the East. Hindenburg still would be there, but he's not considered by everyone to be the brain of the team... in fact, Ludendorff later claimed that Hindenburg had slept through the battle of Tannenberg. Thus, the Russians might throw the Germans back behind the Weichsel / Vistula, taking the area where Germany got most of grain and milk from... peace in 1915 with the Allies winning?" Additionally: Prittwitz who had been in charge of the 8th Army suggested retreating behind the Vistula when he saw that not one but two Russian armies were attacking, so he was replaced by Hindenburg & Ludendorff. If the 8th Army had retreated, Germany would have lost at least 10% of the grain and milk produced. In a World War where they lacked food even so. Well v. Prittwitz had forgotten to tell Moltke that v. Hoffmann had made the plan for destroying the Russians and he had abandoned abandoning East Prussia. H and L merely had to look at v. Hoffmans plan - ok it and off we go. Though of course if 8 Army had retreated behind Vistula..
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jun 29, 2024 21:31:21 GMT
Quoted from here: "When Germany in WW1 invaded Belgium, they had to take the fortress of Lüttich / Liege first. This was not an easy nut to crack, however; in fact, it was about the strongest fortress in Europe. So the Germans started to attack it, but not very successful. And then one day Ludendorff who had nothing else to do came along, thought the fortress was already taken by the Germans, went to one door, knocked, and the Belgian soldiers opened. It could've gone both ways, but IOTL, Ludendorff had the guts to demand capitulation, and somehow the Belgians really gave in. Lüttich had fallen (only some forts continued to fight for some days), the German army could fight elsewhere, and Ludendorff was the hero of the day. So WI the Belgians had had the backbone to arrest that overconfident German general? The German march to the west would've been hampered, since Lüttich could probably hold out for a long time, and they would miss the troops - esp. since they also couldn't win OTL. And, one of the most competent generals was lost (and not even considered good by anyone, even if released or liberated later), and would be lacking in the East. Hindenburg still would be there, but he's not considered by everyone to be the brain of the team... in fact, Ludendorff later claimed that Hindenburg had slept through the battle of Tannenberg. Thus, the Russians might throw the Germans back behind the Weichsel / Vistula, taking the area where Germany got most of grain and milk from... peace in 1915 with the Allies winning?" Additionally: Prittwitz who had been in charge of the 8th Army suggested retreating behind the Vistula when he saw that not one but two Russian armies were attacking, so he was replaced by Hindenburg & Ludendorff. If the 8th Army had retreated, Germany would have lost at least 10% of the grain and milk produced. In a World War where they lacked food even so.
As I understand it Ludendorff managed a bluff to get the garrison to surrender earlier than it would have done already but that the very heavy artillery the Germans were using had already cracked several of the forts. IIRC the main damage was done by guns recently obtained from Austria's Skoda works that were heavier than the German guns available. If for some reason they had been delayed in arriving and/or Ludendorff's bluff failed this might have delayed the German advance, although how big an impact that would have I'm not sure. Its even possible with the German hammer being delayed the French could have attacked the German forts in A-L longer and suffered further casualties before they stop and are unable to reinforce the northern flank enough to stop the Germans on the Marne - although the Germans were pretty much exhausted by then. As such a delay at Liege could work either way.
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Post by Max Sinister on Jun 29, 2024 22:53:27 GMT
Quoted from here: "When Germany in WW1 invaded Belgium, they had to take the fortress of Lüttich / Liege first. This was not an easy nut to crack, however; in fact, it was about the strongest fortress in Europe. So the Germans started to attack it, but not very successful. And then one day Ludendorff who had nothing else to do came along, thought the fortress was already taken by the Germans, went to one door, knocked, and the Belgian soldiers opened. It could've gone both ways, but IOTL, Ludendorff had the guts to demand capitulation, and somehow the Belgians really gave in. Lüttich had fallen (only some forts continued to fight for some days), the German army could fight elsewhere, and Ludendorff was the hero of the day. So WI the Belgians had had the backbone to arrest that overconfident German general? The German march to the west would've been hampered, since Lüttich could probably hold out for a long time, and they would miss the troops - esp. since they also couldn't win OTL. And, one of the most competent generals was lost (and not even considered good by anyone, even if released or liberated later), and would be lacking in the East. Hindenburg still would be there, but he's not considered by everyone to be the brain of the team... in fact, Ludendorff later claimed that Hindenburg had slept through the battle of Tannenberg. Thus, the Russians might throw the Germans back behind the Weichsel / Vistula, taking the area where Germany got most of grain and milk from... peace in 1915 with the Allies winning?" Additionally: Prittwitz who had been in charge of the 8th Army suggested retreating behind the Vistula when he saw that not one but two Russian armies were attacking, so he was replaced by Hindenburg & Ludendorff. If the 8th Army had retreated, Germany would have lost at least 10% of the grain and milk produced. In a World War where they lacked food even so.
As I understand it Ludendorff managed a bluff to get the garrison to surrender earlier than it would have done already but that the very heavy artillery the Germans were using had already cracked several of the forts. IIRC the main damage was done by guns recently obtained from Austria's Skoda works that were heavier than the German guns available. If for some reason they had been delayed in arriving and/or Ludendorff's bluff failed this might have delayed the German advance, although how big an impact that would have I'm not sure. Its even possible with the German hammer being delayed the French could have attacked the German forts in A-L longer and suffered further casualties before they stop and are unable to reinforce the northern flank enough to stop the Germans on the Marne - although the Germans were pretty much exhausted by then. As such a delay at Liege could work either way.
The thing is: The Germans only had cracked minor forts so far. Ludendorff took the main one.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jun 30, 2024 19:41:25 GMT
As I understand it Ludendorff managed a bluff to get the garrison to surrender earlier than it would have done already but that the very heavy artillery the Germans were using had already cracked several of the forts. IIRC the main damage was done by guns recently obtained from Austria's Skoda works that were heavier than the German guns available. If for some reason they had been delayed in arriving and/or Ludendorff's bluff failed this might have delayed the German advance, although how big an impact that would have I'm not sure. Its even possible with the German hammer being delayed the French could have attacked the German forts in A-L longer and suffered further casualties before they stop and are unable to reinforce the northern flank enough to stop the Germans on the Marne - although the Germans were pretty much exhausted by then. As such a delay at Liege could work either way.
The thing is: The Germans only had cracked minor forts so far. Ludendorff took the main one.
Ah if that's the case then he did get lucky. As I said that could have had impacts beneficial to both sides but would definitely delay the initial German advance and could have caused quite a logjam which complicates German logistics.
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