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Post by Max Sinister on Mar 20, 2024 23:10:35 GMT
As you know, Finland started making war against the SU on June 25th in 1941, not 22nd.
This of course hampered the efforts, since there wasn't the element of surprise anymore against the Red Army.
Is there a way around it? I've thought and came up with this:
- They fight deliberately from day one.
- A false-flag operation, similar to that one which might have been used against Hungary, with the bombing of Kassa/Kosice. (Admiral Canaris coming up with a Redarmist's uniform for a Luftwaffe pilot would be the easiest thing in the world, but what about a plane? If the Finns shot it down, there might be explaining to do. Or could the Luftwaffe get their hands on an original Soviet plane? Might the Brandenburgers even talk a Redarmist into deserting, together with his plane?)
- The nazis have proof that the Soviets want to conquer Finland. Hence the talk of a "second war" against Finland which came up when Molotov was in Berlin in late 1940.
- The nazis trick Stalin into attacking Finland first. Of course, in that case they can't surprise him in Finland.
However, in all cases, there's either still no element of surprise, or the Finnish preparations might be a giveaway of the plan.
Or do you see a way out?
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Post by American hist on Mar 21, 2024 2:13:33 GMT
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Mar 21, 2024 9:25:59 GMT
As you know, Finland started making war against the SU on June 25th in 1941, not 22nd.
This of course hampered the efforts, since there wasn't the element of surprise anymore against the Red Army.
Is there a way around it? I've thought and came up with this:
- They fight deliberately from day one.
- A false-flag operation, similar to that one which might have been used against Hungary, with the bombing of Kassa/Kosice. (Admiral Canaris coming up with a Redarmist's uniform for a Luftwaffe pilot would be the easiest thing in the world, but what about a plane? If the Finns shot it down, there might be explaining to do. Or could the Luftwaffe get their hands on an original Soviet plane? Might the Brandenburgers even talk a Redarmist into deserting, together with his plane?)
- The nazis have proof that the Soviets want to conquer Finland. Hence the talk of a "second war" against Finland which came up when Molotov was in Berlin in late 1940.
- The nazis trick Stalin into attacking Finland first. Of course, in that case they can't surprise him in Finland.
However, in all cases, there's either still no element of surprise, or the Finnish preparations might be a giveaway of the plan.
Or do you see a way out?
I'm not sure it would matter that much in terms of surprise given that the terrain and forces available aren't really suitable for rapid advances. Also by 25th June the Soviets are in turmoil and probably focusing on moving forces southwards to meet the 'sudden' onslaught from the Germans. Plus Finland probably didn't want to openly commit themselves to the Axis alliance until there's at least some sign that the German attack isn't going to fail miserably which would leave them very exposed.
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575
Captain
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Post by 575 on Mar 21, 2024 10:21:52 GMT
As you know, Finland started making war against the SU on June 25th in 1941, not 22nd.
This of course hampered the efforts, since there wasn't the element of surprise anymore against the Red Army.
Is there a way around it? I've thought and came up with this:
- They fight deliberately from day one.
- A false-flag operation, similar to that one which might have been used against Hungary, with the bombing of Kassa/Kosice. (Admiral Canaris coming up with a Redarmist's uniform for a Luftwaffe pilot would be the easiest thing in the world, but what about a plane? If the Finns shot it down, there might be explaining to do. Or could the Luftwaffe get their hands on an original Soviet plane? Might the Brandenburgers even talk a Redarmist into deserting, together with his plane?)
- The nazis have proof that the Soviets want to conquer Finland. Hence the talk of a "second war" against Finland which came up when Molotov was in Berlin in late 1940.
- The nazis trick Stalin into attacking Finland first. Of course, in that case they can't surprise him in Finland.
However, in all cases, there's either still no element of surprise, or the Finnish preparations might be a giveaway of the plan.
Or do you see a way out?
There seems to have been no clear information from the Germans as to the actual date of the Barbarossa attack besides "it might well occur on June 22" sometime during late March 1941. Apparently the Finn's didn't take the bait and adjust their planning. On wiki there is mentioned a report from Fiinn Armoured Ship Vainamoinen dated 22 June (link to pic of logbook in Finnish!) that bombed Finland. Only on 25 June did the Soviets launch a major airraid on Finland and Finland entered the war. From some other papers found - Finnish etc. - it seemed Finland tried making a defensive alliance with Sweden prior to jumping the German bandwaggon which became possible as the Germans wanted to reinforce their troops in Finnmark, Norway for the operation. During the final months prior to Barbarossa the Soviets backed down on their demands to Finland as the Germans took a more and more obvious position in the Soviet - Finn relations.
Was the Soviets to hellbent on regaining the Grandduchy of Finland? Was it a cardinal point during Nazi - Soviet negotiations during August 1939? The Pact gave Finland to the Soviets though the Germans counted the Finn's among the Aryans. But to get a free hand in the West Hitler was ready to sacrifice a possible ally - a gamble which paid off?!
1. The Germans want maximum security on the jump-off date for Barbarossa and hence only mumble the date to the Finn's. The deception scheme did work though the Soviet System had warnings but Stalin didn't believe in it - which the German's must have been unawares of hence their continued security paranoia regarding Finn ability to keep shut.
2. The Finn's take the German hint in late March and adjust their offensive plans to maximise initial effect.
3. The Germans decide to inform the Finn's of the reality of the date of Barbarossa believing the Finn's as reliable and word isn't going to go east!
4. False flag operation - perhaps that would make for Finn mistrust of the Germans when they'd discover the truth - perhaps the Germans had gotten the plane from Finland originally and the Finn's had the serial or the Finn's realized it came from the Balkans having been forced down or such.
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Post by Max Sinister on Mar 23, 2024 23:49:02 GMT
Yeah, but that doesn't have much to do with the question: How can we get the Finns to start attacking from day 1? As you know, Finland started making war against the SU on June 25th in 1941, not 22nd.
This of course hampered the efforts, since there wasn't the element of surprise anymore against the Red Army.
Is there a way around it? I've thought and came up with this:
- They fight deliberately from day one.
- A false-flag operation, similar to that one which might have been used against Hungary, with the bombing of Kassa/Kosice. (Admiral Canaris coming up with a Redarmist's uniform for a Luftwaffe pilot would be the easiest thing in the world, but what about a plane? If the Finns shot it down, there might be explaining to do. Or could the Luftwaffe get their hands on an original Soviet plane? Might the Brandenburgers even talk a Redarmist into deserting, together with his plane?)
- The nazis have proof that the Soviets want to conquer Finland. Hence the talk of a "second war" against Finland which came up when Molotov was in Berlin in late 1940.
- The nazis trick Stalin into attacking Finland first. Of course, in that case they can't surprise him in Finland.
However, in all cases, there's either still no element of surprise, or the Finnish preparations might be a giveaway of the plan.
Or do you see a way out?
I'm not sure it would matter that much in terms of surprise given that the terrain and forces available aren't really suitable for rapid advances. Also by 25th June the Soviets are in turmoil and probably focusing on moving forces southwards to meet the 'sudden' onslaught from the Germans. Plus Finland probably didn't want to openly commit themselves to the Axis alliance until there's at least some sign that the German attack isn't going to fail miserably which would leave them very exposed.
The terrain is indeed anything but good for blitzkrieg. However, since the Soviet forces were stationed near the border, they might be smashed in a surprise attack, which'd give the Axis a window of opportunity during which they might hit the Kirov railroad and destroy a good part of it. Even if Stalin understands the significance of it, transporting troops there will take quite some time. And there are many places on other fronts which'll need to be supported too. If he has to decide between, say, Murmansk and Kiev - will he favor Murmansk? Especially since it took some time until L&L would arrive anyway. Maybe, maybe, if the rail is cut early enough they'll decide rather to deliver via Iran and Vladivostok instead?
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Post by Max Sinister on Mar 24, 2024 0:02:43 GMT
As you know, Finland started making war against the SU on June 25th in 1941, not 22nd.
This of course hampered the efforts, since there wasn't the element of surprise anymore against the Red Army.
Is there a way around it? I've thought and came up with this:
- They fight deliberately from day one.
- A false-flag operation, similar to that one which might have been used against Hungary, with the bombing of Kassa/Kosice. (Admiral Canaris coming up with a Redarmist's uniform for a Luftwaffe pilot would be the easiest thing in the world, but what about a plane? If the Finns shot it down, there might be explaining to do. Or could the Luftwaffe get their hands on an original Soviet plane? Might the Brandenburgers even talk a Redarmist into deserting, together with his plane?)
- The nazis have proof that the Soviets want to conquer Finland. Hence the talk of a "second war" against Finland which came up when Molotov was in Berlin in late 1940.
- The nazis trick Stalin into attacking Finland first. Of course, in that case they can't surprise him in Finland.
However, in all cases, there's either still no element of surprise, or the Finnish preparations might be a giveaway of the plan.
Or do you see a way out?
There seems to have been no clear information from the Germans as to the actual date of the Barbarossa attack besides "it might well occur on June 22" sometime during late March 1941. Apparently the Finn's didn't take the bait and adjust their planning. On wiki there is mentioned a report from Fiinn Armoured Ship Vainamoinen dated 22 June (link to pic of logbook in Finnish!) that bombed Finland. Only on 25 June did the Soviets launch a major airraid on Finland and Finland entered the war. From some other papers found - Finnish etc. - it seemed Finland tried making a defensive alliance with Sweden prior to jumping the German bandwaggon which became possible as the Germans wanted to reinforce their troops in Finnmark, Norway for the operation. During the final months prior to Barbarossa the Soviets backed down on their demands to Finland as the Germans took a more and more obvious position in the Soviet - Finn relations.
Was the Soviets to hellbent on regaining the Grandduchy of Finland? Was it a cardinal point during Nazi - Soviet negotiations during August 1939? The Pact gave Finland to the Soviets though the Germans counted the Finn's among the Aryans. But to get a free hand in the West Hitler was ready to sacrifice a possible ally - a gamble which paid off?!
1. The Germans want maximum security on the jump-off date for Barbarossa and hence only mumble the date to the Finn's. The deception scheme did work though the Soviet System had warnings but Stalin didn't believe in it - which the German's must have been unawares of hence their continued security paranoia regarding Finn ability to keep shut.
2. The Finn's take the German hint in late March and adjust their offensive plans to maximise initial effect.
3. The Germans decide to inform the Finn's of the reality of the date of Barbarossa believing the Finn's as reliable and word isn't going to go east!
4. False flag operation - perhaps that would make for Finn mistrust of the Germans when they'd discover the truth - perhaps the Germans had gotten the plane from Finland originally and the Finn's had the serial or the Finn's realized it came from the Balkans having been forced down or such.
Yes, I've read that they didn't exactly leave a paper trail. Of course, this leaves possibilities for AH.
Indeed, initially the Soviets only attacked with a handful of planes, which wasn't reason enough for the Finns to join the war. But even if they attacked with 100+ planes on day one: The element of surprise will be lost already.
Yes, the Soviets wanted all of Finland, under the puppet of Kuusiinen. Originally they had hoped to get it during the Winter War, but as we know, the effort was too big.
But during the talks between Adolf Nazi, Ribbentrop and Molotov in late 1940, the "second war" against Finland was mentioned as if it was already planned - because that was the case.
Not very nice, appointing the Finns "honorary Aryans" and be willing to sell them out. Unless they got that "appointment" after the alliance was realized.
To 1: Yes, there's no way German espionage will be good enough to find that out.
To 4: Of course we don't want the Finns to mistrust their co-belligerent. Or did you mean that they'd discover after they've been dragged into the war and it's too late to get out?
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575
Captain
There is no Purgatory for warcriminals - they go directly to Hell!
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Likes: 4,109
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Post by 575 on Mar 24, 2024 8:01:12 GMT
There seems to have been no clear information from the Germans as to the actual date of the Barbarossa attack besides "it might well occur on June 22" sometime during late March 1941. Apparently the Finn's didn't take the bait and adjust their planning. On wiki there is mentioned a report from Fiinn Armoured Ship Vainamoinen dated 22 June (link to pic of logbook in Finnish!) that bombed Finland. Only on 25 June did the Soviets launch a major airraid on Finland and Finland entered the war. From some other papers found - Finnish etc. - it seemed Finland tried making a defensive alliance with Sweden prior to jumping the German bandwaggon which became possible as the Germans wanted to reinforce their troops in Finnmark, Norway for the operation. During the final months prior to Barbarossa the Soviets backed down on their demands to Finland as the Germans took a more and more obvious position in the Soviet - Finn relations.
Was the Soviets to hellbent on regaining the Grandduchy of Finland? Was it a cardinal point during Nazi - Soviet negotiations during August 1939? The Pact gave Finland to the Soviets though the Germans counted the Finn's among the Aryans. But to get a free hand in the West Hitler was ready to sacrifice a possible ally - a gamble which paid off?!
1. The Germans want maximum security on the jump-off date for Barbarossa and hence only mumble the date to the Finn's. The deception scheme did work though the Soviet System had warnings but Stalin didn't believe in it - which the German's must have been unawares of hence their continued security paranoia regarding Finn ability to keep shut.
2. The Finn's take the German hint in late March and adjust their offensive plans to maximise initial effect.
3. The Germans decide to inform the Finn's of the reality of the date of Barbarossa believing the Finn's as reliable and word isn't going to go east!
4. False flag operation - perhaps that would make for Finn mistrust of the Germans when they'd discover the truth - perhaps the Germans had gotten the plane from Finland originally and the Finn's had the serial or the Finn's realized it came from the Balkans having been forced down or such.
Yes, I've read that they didn't exactly leave a paper trail. Of course, this leaves possibilities for AH.
Indeed, initially the Soviets only attacked with a handful of planes, which wasn't reason enough for the Finns to join the war. But even if they attacked with 100+ planes on day one: The element of surprise will be lost already.
Yes, the Soviets wanted all of Finland, under the puppet of Kuusiinen. Originally they had hoped to get it during the Winter War, but as we know, the effort was too big.
But during the talks between Adolf Nazi, Ribbentrop and Molotov in late 1940, the "second war" against Finland was mentioned as if it was already planned - because that was the case.
Not very nice, appointing the Finns "honorary Aryans" and be willing to sell them out. Unless they got that "appointment" after the alliance was realized.
To 1: Yes, there's no way German espionage will be good enough to find that out.
To 4: Of course we don't want the Finns to mistrust their co-belligerent. Or did you mean that they'd discover after they've been dragged into the war and it's too late to get out?
To 4: Either - or! Just saying it would be a bad idea. |
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Post by Max Sinister on Apr 4, 2024 2:01:47 GMT
Another possibility: The Kriegsmarine suggested to attack Soviet-occupied Hango in Finland (which would have freed troops to fight in the East instead), but the "führer" declined - he didn't want the Finns to demand something in return.
However, since the Finns weren't really enthusiastic about the war, one or two more Finnish divisions wouldn't change that much, unless the butterflies do something.
Also, I recently learned that Kandalaksha, which in the original plans was supposed to be taken, was "dropped from the list" on May 31st in 1941. Reason: The "führer" was afraid about an invasion of Norway.
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575
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Post by 575 on Apr 4, 2024 8:43:14 GMT
Another possibility: The Kriegsmarine suggested to attack Soviet-occupied Hango in Finland (which would have freed troops to fight in the East instead), but the "führer" declined - he didn't want the Finns to demand something in return. However, since the Finns weren't really enthusiastic about the war, one or two more Finnish divisions wouldn't change that much, unless the butterflies do something. Also, I recently learned that Kandalaksha, which in the original plans was supposed to be taken, was "dropped from the list" on May 31st in 1941. Reason: The "führer" was afraid about an invasion of Norway. When were the suggestions made? Hitlers refusal of the suggestions surely speaks for the convolutedness regarding Finland - please join us we are most possibly going on 22 April though that hasn't been confirmed..
The Soviet step-down as the Swedish-Finn Union/Cooperation plan was gotten wind off would have made the Finn's even more uncertain as to join in.
Kandalaksha is on the eastern side of the "Finland-Russia Peninsular" behind huge marshy pineforest and the German Army still in Norway only crossing the Finn border on 22 April 1941 - why afraid the Finns had held the line during Winter War why shouldn't they hold it for the Germans to arrive?
Seems AH was quite indecide about Finland right up to the 22 April 1941 and which possibly goes the other way too!
The Germans had an odd handle on the situation - the Finn's were lacking arms and had to buy them from Germany. The Germans upheld some curious economy within its alliance though they had shitloads of French, Belgian, Dutch, Norwegian equipment the Finns would happily have taken and possibly committed to the participation in Barbarossa. It's curious Hitler was so secrecy minded - perhaps the Germans hoped for the Russians to mass troops on the Finn borders to carry out the final go at Finland? Hence why not enticing the Finn's with free arms? The Finn's operated some Morane Fighters and French 25mm AT-guns so such would have been appreciated though the Norwegian 37mm Bofors AT-guns would be preferable along the Hawk-75 operated by both French and Norwegians - the Norwegians brand new and most not even finished uncrating!
Odd the Germans didn't have an immediate go at Murmansk railway like Kandalaksha - did the German's overestimate the Soviets in Murmansk area? They were able to go there at least the city and port. Of course the Germans didn't know the British and US would effect lend-lease to the Soviet Union but even so Murmansk was an objective for the German Mountain Corps in North Norway.
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Post by Max Sinister on Apr 6, 2024 22:40:35 GMT
You meant June? The territory between the Finnish border and Kandalaksha is bad, but that next to Murmansk is even worse. General Eduard Dietl compared it to what Earth must've looked after creation. And every other point where they might cut the railroad is even farther from the border, although the territory might be better. What's your suggestion? The Germans might have given the Finns more arms, but then again they needed them too. This map shows that in the middle of the front, two Finnish divisions stood against a lone Soviet one. This may change in the long run, but it's a possibility. If the Germans sent some airplanes there for recon... |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Apr 6, 2024 22:46:08 GMT
You meant June? The territory between the Finnish border and Kandalaksha is bad, but that next to Murmansk is even worse. General Eduard Dietl compared it to what Earth must've looked after creation. And every other point where they might cut the railroad is even farther from the border, although the territory might be better. What's your suggestion? The Germans might have given the Finns more arms, but then again they needed them too. This map shows that in the middle of the front, two Finnish divisions stood against a lone Soviet one. This may change in the long run, but it's a possibility. If the Germans sent some airplanes there for recon...
Max, you might have an error in that link as it's looping back to this thread for me.
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Post by Max Sinister on Apr 6, 2024 23:00:52 GMT
You meant June? The territory between the Finnish border and Kandalaksha is bad, but that next to Murmansk is even worse. General Eduard Dietl compared it to what Earth must've looked after creation. And every other point where they might cut the railroad is even farther from the border, although the territory might be better. What's your suggestion? The Germans might have given the Finns more arms, but then again they needed them too. This map shows that in the middle of the front, two Finnish divisions stood against a lone Soviet one. This may change in the long run, but it's a possibility. If the Germans sent some airplanes there for recon...
Max, you might have an error in that link as it's looping back to this thread for me.
Sorry, no idea what happened there. Fixed now. Thx.
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575
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Post by 575 on Apr 8, 2024 8:41:59 GMT
You meant June? The territory between the Finnish border and Kandalaksha is bad, but that next to Murmansk is even worse. General Eduard Dietl compared it to what Earth must've looked after creation. And every other point where they might cut the railroad is even farther from the border, although the territory might be better. What's your suggestion? The Germans might have given the Finns more arms, but then again they needed them too. This map shows that in the middle of the front, two Finnish divisions stood against a lone Soviet one. This may change in the long run, but it's a possibility. If the Germans sent some airplanes there for recon... June??? Understood we are discussing what could have brought the Finns in early. I'm well aware that Diethl couldn't do much but this is post 22 June. Sometime post that too the Germans tried going for the Murmansk railway into the Woods which had the Finn officers shake their heads as they well knew the difficulty of such and which was repulsed by the Soviets. What's the map for? Its following the German crossing the border 22 June - what are we exactly discussing??? Kandalaksha plan You wrote was cancelled 31 MAY 1941 pro-22 JUNE. I'm leaving on a jet-plane..
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Post by Max Sinister on Apr 9, 2024 22:42:46 GMT
You meant June? The territory between the Finnish border and Kandalaksha is bad, but that next to Murmansk is even worse. General Eduard Dietl compared it to what Earth must've looked after creation. And every other point where they might cut the railroad is even farther from the border, although the territory might be better. What's your suggestion? The Germans might have given the Finns more arms, but then again they needed them too. This map shows that in the middle of the front, two Finnish divisions stood against a lone Soviet one. This may change in the long run, but it's a possibility. If the Germans sent some airplanes there for recon... June??? Understood we are discussing what could have brought the Finns in early. That'd be an interesting PoD as well. Stalin attacks in Finland, several hundred thousand Redarmists are bogged down there, and only then the Wehrmacht strikes... quite sure nobody's used such a PoD before.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Apr 10, 2024 14:53:41 GMT
June??? Understood we are discussing what could have brought the Finns in early. That'd be an interesting PoD as well. Stalin attacks in Finland, several hundred thousand Redarmists are bogged down there, and only then the Wehrmacht strikes... quite sure nobody's used such a PoD before.
I can see some problems with a March 41 Barbarossa. a) What would that mean for the Balkans operations? Would they have to be suspended? Italy might overwhelm Greece eventually because the latter were running low on manpower but a British intervention could change that.
b) Not sure whether there were a lot of Red Army units based opposite the Finnish border in March 41, as compared to the year before?
c) Possibly most of all its still end of winter/early spring. Which means bad weather and then the spring thaw which would strangle movement across much of the main front for about 6-8 weeks..
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