Own Goal: How the BEF destroyed the balance of power by winning WWI too fast for the Entente
Jan 30, 2024 1:04:26 GMT
oscssw likes this
Post by raharris1973 on Jan 30, 2024 1:04:26 GMT
What if the French, led by Joffre, at the beginning of the 'race to the sea' battles succeed in getting Sir John French, the Commander of the British Expeditionary Force, to attack into the gap between two German armies, with decisive effect?
Tommy Atkins wins the War by Christmas [Operational concept and explanation battlefield outcome credited to, and quoted from @david Flin from Alternatehistory.com, nickname is mine]
-- The European powers will take a short-term breather after this war, but how long will the Entente victors stay cooperatively aligned?
For their part, the Russians' next ambitions are towards the Ottoman Empire.
Will the two Entente other powers accept Russian encroachment on the straits and Armenia, perhaps in return for their own shares of compensation at Ottoman expense, as the price great power comity? Or will Britain and France instinctively oppose Russian advances against the Ottomans, reviving the old Crimean War coalition?
Or, will the UK and France move in opposite directions, with the UK taking an anti-Russian, pro-Ottoman stand, but France staying pro-Russian? Or vice versa?
Will any of the Entente members seek to make a meaningful rapprochement with Germany and make the offer a good one for Germany?
I also wonder what Russia's foreign policy posture toward France, Britain, and Persia would be.
Who would the French prioritize having the best relations with, the Russians, or the British?
Who would the British prioritize having the best relations with, the French, the Russians, or....the defeated Germans?
Will Italy walk away a fully satisfied power, or will it feel blocked? If so, by whom?
Tommy Atkins wins the War by Christmas [Operational concept and explanation battlefield outcome credited to, and quoted from @david Flin from Alternatehistory.com, nickname is mine]
At the start of the Race for the Sea, a huge gap opened up between the German First and Second army, with the BEF in perfect position to go into that gap. Joffre had asked the BEF to move forward, but French sat on his thumbs, and the chance was lost.
Had the BEF advanced, the German First Army would have been separated from the rest of the German forces. France had three armies north of the BEF; two to pin the First Army in place, and one to get around the flank. That leaves the German Second Army stuffed. It's either got to force a way through the BEF on broken terrain with artillery support far away in an unprepared attack against time, or it pulls back and leaves the First Army to get screwed.
If the Entente could see "the other side of the hill", things would have been done and dusted on 9 Sept. The French can get armies round the flank of the First Army and onto the supply lines of the German 1st to 5th Armies. No supplies means those five German armies quickly become POWs.
That pretty much wraps things up for Germany. The Western Allies move to liberate Belgium and push up against, and over, the German border. The Russians, even if stung in the forests and lakes of East Prussia, are advancing in Galicia, and with the lack of reinforcements and probable need to transfer some German forces west, the Russians are looking to be able to have another go at East Prussia and Silesia in the winter. Things in the colonial theaters are of course, off to an awful start for Germany, with its Pacific colonies gobbled up by Britain, Japan, and the Dominions.
Togo is grabbed. The Ottomans steer clear of joining the war, and the Italians quite possibly join the war.
I figure at a minimum, the Allied terms imposed on the Germans and Austrians will be:
France would get Alsace-Lorraine and Togoland.
Britain would expect naval restrictions on Germany, German South West Africa to South Africa and German New Guinea to Australia and Western Samoa to New Zealand.
Serbia presumably gets Bosnia-Herzegovina and Dalmatia.
Japan gets Tsingtao and the Mariana, Caroline, and Marshall Islands.
Russia would get at least eastern Galicia or all Galicia, plus Posen.
It is also possible for the endgame to stretch out much longer, with things extending to an occupation of Saar or Rhineland in the west, and East and West Prussia in the East, and Upper Silesia, and potentially the break-up of Austria-Hungary, along with the seizure of German Tanganyika and Kamerun, and the cession of north Schleswig to Denmark.
German militarists and revanchists in this quick defeat will have plenty of reasons to be angry at the Entente powers, like OTL.
However, unlike OTL, they will have fewer bases on which to argue that a) they weren't truly militarily defeated, and b) with just a small correction or two they would have one.
That's because in this timeline, unlike OTL, a) they never get so close to the channel in 1914, b) they never get so close to the channel and Paris *again* with their late war offensive in 1918, and c) they never come to see Russia as weak and degraded, because they never inflict the OTL defeats of 1915-1917 on it, reduce it to revolution, and impose the Brest-Litovsk treaty on it.
I'm not saying German peaceableness towards its neighbors is 100% guaranteed, but the German public, politicians and military leaders are made skeptical of big military plans and promises. And no future regime will contemplate an idea as outlandish as establishing Lebensbraum across the territory of a defeated Russia. Later German military planning about Russia will be focused on countering hypothetical future Russian attacks mainly.
With WWI over by Christmas, or mid-1915, if that's what it takes for the Entente to grind out a harsher settlement and for Germany to yield to it, many things are different in Europe and the world.
Social changes should be significantly less.
The role of women in the factories should be less. There may be less pressure for expanded franchise in Britain, on class *and* gender lines.
France will have changed more because its casualty rates will have been much higher. Those changes will have worked to mobilize industry more.
On the other side of the hill, Germany may have had more of a levee en masse while getting defeated, and its Prussian military establishment is getting discredited.
Russia has not been taken to any kind of breaking point.
Had the BEF advanced, the German First Army would have been separated from the rest of the German forces. France had three armies north of the BEF; two to pin the First Army in place, and one to get around the flank. That leaves the German Second Army stuffed. It's either got to force a way through the BEF on broken terrain with artillery support far away in an unprepared attack against time, or it pulls back and leaves the First Army to get screwed.
If the Entente could see "the other side of the hill", things would have been done and dusted on 9 Sept. The French can get armies round the flank of the First Army and onto the supply lines of the German 1st to 5th Armies. No supplies means those five German armies quickly become POWs.
That pretty much wraps things up for Germany. The Western Allies move to liberate Belgium and push up against, and over, the German border. The Russians, even if stung in the forests and lakes of East Prussia, are advancing in Galicia, and with the lack of reinforcements and probable need to transfer some German forces west, the Russians are looking to be able to have another go at East Prussia and Silesia in the winter. Things in the colonial theaters are of course, off to an awful start for Germany, with its Pacific colonies gobbled up by Britain, Japan, and the Dominions.
Togo is grabbed. The Ottomans steer clear of joining the war, and the Italians quite possibly join the war.
I figure at a minimum, the Allied terms imposed on the Germans and Austrians will be:
France would get Alsace-Lorraine and Togoland.
Britain would expect naval restrictions on Germany, German South West Africa to South Africa and German New Guinea to Australia and Western Samoa to New Zealand.
Serbia presumably gets Bosnia-Herzegovina and Dalmatia.
Japan gets Tsingtao and the Mariana, Caroline, and Marshall Islands.
Russia would get at least eastern Galicia or all Galicia, plus Posen.
It is also possible for the endgame to stretch out much longer, with things extending to an occupation of Saar or Rhineland in the west, and East and West Prussia in the East, and Upper Silesia, and potentially the break-up of Austria-Hungary, along with the seizure of German Tanganyika and Kamerun, and the cession of north Schleswig to Denmark.
German militarists and revanchists in this quick defeat will have plenty of reasons to be angry at the Entente powers, like OTL.
However, unlike OTL, they will have fewer bases on which to argue that a) they weren't truly militarily defeated, and b) with just a small correction or two they would have one.
That's because in this timeline, unlike OTL, a) they never get so close to the channel in 1914, b) they never get so close to the channel and Paris *again* with their late war offensive in 1918, and c) they never come to see Russia as weak and degraded, because they never inflict the OTL defeats of 1915-1917 on it, reduce it to revolution, and impose the Brest-Litovsk treaty on it.
I'm not saying German peaceableness towards its neighbors is 100% guaranteed, but the German public, politicians and military leaders are made skeptical of big military plans and promises. And no future regime will contemplate an idea as outlandish as establishing Lebensbraum across the territory of a defeated Russia. Later German military planning about Russia will be focused on countering hypothetical future Russian attacks mainly.
With WWI over by Christmas, or mid-1915, if that's what it takes for the Entente to grind out a harsher settlement and for Germany to yield to it, many things are different in Europe and the world.
Social changes should be significantly less.
The role of women in the factories should be less. There may be less pressure for expanded franchise in Britain, on class *and* gender lines.
France will have changed more because its casualty rates will have been much higher. Those changes will have worked to mobilize industry more.
On the other side of the hill, Germany may have had more of a levee en masse while getting defeated, and its Prussian military establishment is getting discredited.
Russia has not been taken to any kind of breaking point.
-- The European powers will take a short-term breather after this war, but how long will the Entente victors stay cooperatively aligned?
For their part, the Russians' next ambitions are towards the Ottoman Empire.
Will the two Entente other powers accept Russian encroachment on the straits and Armenia, perhaps in return for their own shares of compensation at Ottoman expense, as the price great power comity? Or will Britain and France instinctively oppose Russian advances against the Ottomans, reviving the old Crimean War coalition?
Or, will the UK and France move in opposite directions, with the UK taking an anti-Russian, pro-Ottoman stand, but France staying pro-Russian? Or vice versa?
Will any of the Entente members seek to make a meaningful rapprochement with Germany and make the offer a good one for Germany?
EmperorPenguin (user from Historum.com) said:
With a rapid Entente victory (and your scenario means Germany is utterly destroyed by the end of September 1914):
France will take the Rhineland.
Russia will dismantle Austria because no one will be able to stop her. She's also likely to take the Oder line
Britain is irrelevant to a peace treaty. Her six divisions will carry no weight against the 200 plus Franco Russian divisions
The only limiting factor in the Franco-Russian annexations would be to keep a buffer between the two of them. Russia would want Germany strong enough to defeat France but hopeless against a Franco-Russian coalition.
In that scenario: Germany would seek to be on good terms with Russia to prevent an attack while France would need Russia in a war with Germany. Not sure if Russia can pull that one off
Nicholas never had much ambition towards the Ottoman Empire. His policy had always been to leave the Ottomans alone as long as the straits were open for commerce and closed to foreign warships. He flat out told Salisbury he wouldn't occupy Armenia even if the powers gave him a mandate to do it.
See no reason for that to change.
With a rapid Entente victory (and your scenario means Germany is utterly destroyed by the end of September 1914):
France will take the Rhineland.
Russia will dismantle Austria because no one will be able to stop her. She's also likely to take the Oder line
Britain is irrelevant to a peace treaty. Her six divisions will carry no weight against the 200 plus Franco Russian divisions
The only limiting factor in the Franco-Russian annexations would be to keep a buffer between the two of them. Russia would want Germany strong enough to defeat France but hopeless against a Franco-Russian coalition.
In that scenario: Germany would seek to be on good terms with Russia to prevent an attack while France would need Russia in a war with Germany. Not sure if Russia can pull that one off
Nicholas never had much ambition towards the Ottoman Empire. His policy had always been to leave the Ottomans alone as long as the straits were open for commerce and closed to foreign warships. He flat out told Salisbury he wouldn't occupy Armenia even if the powers gave him a mandate to do it.
See no reason for that to change.
I also wonder what Russia's foreign policy posture toward France, Britain, and Persia would be.
EmperorPenguin said: Depends on how strong Germany is. If its strong enough to threaten France but hopeless against the Franco-Russians, Russia will be quite nasty to the British
Who would the French prioritize having the best relations with, the Russians, or the British?
EmperorPenguin said: Again, how strong is Germany? Do they still need the Russians (who are far more reliable and effective against the Germans)? Then Russia rules Europe
Who would the British prioritize having the best relations with, the French, the Russians, or....the defeated Germans?
EmperorPenguin said: What can Britain offer the Germans? Austria wasn't enough to defeat Russia and France. Britain will never be able to put an army into Europe large enough and fast enough to stop Russia and France
Will Italy walk away a fully satisfied power, or will it feel blocked? If so, by whom?
EmperorPenguin said: Italy might get pretty much all she wants. Her enemy was Austria and Russia had only minimal conflicts with Italy over Serbian expansion in the Balkans (the Russians wanted Serbia to have a port that Russia could use)
Italy could be useful against either Britain or France.
Britain and France will need all the help they can get against the now vastly more powerful Russians. So they might be inclined to give Italy everything
In a short war: Russia will be stronger, France should be much stronger. Italy and Britain will be greatly weakened as their status depended more on their diplomatic position than their military might.
Italy could be useful against either Britain or France.
Britain and France will need all the help they can get against the now vastly more powerful Russians. So they might be inclined to give Italy everything
In a short war: Russia will be stronger, France should be much stronger. Italy and Britain will be greatly weakened as their status depended more on their diplomatic position than their military might.
