What if Napoleon III hadn't worked out the deal with Italy to withdraw French troops from Rome by th
Jan 19, 2024 0:44:56 GMT
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Post by raharris1973 on Jan 19, 2024 0:44:56 GMT
What if Napoleon III hadn't worked out the deal with Italy to withdraw French troops from Rome by the time of Sedan and his capture?
In OTL, in August 1870, a week or two or three before the Emperor's capture by the Prussians at Sedan, Napoleon III reached an agreement with the Italian government wherein he withdrew French troops from Rome in exchange for a Kingdom of Italy promise to not invade Rome. Then, after Napoleon III's capture and the overthrow of his regime and its replacement by a provisional government in France, by September 2, 1870, Italy invaded Rome (circa Sept 10th or 19th). Italy fully occupied and annexed Rome by circa October2nd, 1870.
So, the Rome question was one loose end that was basically tied up, as far as France was concerned, by the time the Provisional Government was leading the country and directing the war. What if Napoleon III had not conveniently performed that service for them?
What if French troops were still there in Rome protecting the Pope through Sedan, and Italy is both seeing France get shellacked by the Prussians/Germans, and still frustrated that French troops stand in their way in Rome?
Does the French Provisional Government negotiate largely the same agreement that Napoleon III did, and then things in Rome, and the Franco-Prussian War, end up proceeding like OTL?
But one thing that's missing is if Italy makes a promise to not invade Itay, they need to break their promise to the French Provisional Government, which will end up continuing postwar, or keep waiting outside Rome, and resent it. They won't have the convenient change of regime in France as a nice distracting moment to use to break their promise,
Or perhaps, the post-Sedan French Provisional Government won't even bother trying to get Italy to make any promises of leaving the Papal state alone as it tries to recall the French troops, it just wants the troops for the war at home and figures the Italians can do WTF they want.
But might that weaken the support of some conservative Catholics for the French Provisional Government?
Or might the multiple weeks' delay in having their Italian ambitions satisfied, while seeing France visibly weakened, tempt the Italian government to ally with Prussia, the North German Confederation and its south German allies, in order to have allies as the Torino government orders a march on Rome, and subsequent on Nizza and Savoy, and possibly a landing on Corsica after that?
In OTL, Italian opinion, especially of dreamers and idealists like Garibaldi, swung dramatically from pro-Prussian to pro-French in the Sept-Oct timeframe as the French regime turned to Republican and Prussian demands for Alsace-Lorraine were revealed. Garibaldi even went to France and led anti-Prussian volunteers. But does this swing still have to happen if there is more delay satisfying Italian national interest in Rome?
Could a Kingdom of Italy decision to poach lands from a demonstrably weakened France be more plausible in a situation where the admired Garibaldi accidentally drowns on one of his morning swims at Caprera in early September 1870?
Would such an Italian intervention in the Franco-Prussian war win Italy territory, and lock Italy and Germany firmly in partnership in the century ahead in defense of their wartime gains? Or could their partnership still end up disrupted by problems related to Iralia Irredenta in Austrian hands?
Or, alternatively, even more convoluted, could negotiations over the terms departure of French troops from Rome between the French Provisional government and the Kingdom of Italy result in a surprising "grand bargain", where France yields Rome directly to the Torino government, and probably yields even more territory, most likely Nizza.....and just maybe Savoy, in exchange for a Franco-Italian alliance, and commitment of the Italian Army to deploy to support the French Armies Levee-ing En Masse, with the objective of keeping France's border with Germany whole? What could that lead to?
In OTL, in August 1870, a week or two or three before the Emperor's capture by the Prussians at Sedan, Napoleon III reached an agreement with the Italian government wherein he withdrew French troops from Rome in exchange for a Kingdom of Italy promise to not invade Rome. Then, after Napoleon III's capture and the overthrow of his regime and its replacement by a provisional government in France, by September 2, 1870, Italy invaded Rome (circa Sept 10th or 19th). Italy fully occupied and annexed Rome by circa October2nd, 1870.
So, the Rome question was one loose end that was basically tied up, as far as France was concerned, by the time the Provisional Government was leading the country and directing the war. What if Napoleon III had not conveniently performed that service for them?
What if French troops were still there in Rome protecting the Pope through Sedan, and Italy is both seeing France get shellacked by the Prussians/Germans, and still frustrated that French troops stand in their way in Rome?
Does the French Provisional Government negotiate largely the same agreement that Napoleon III did, and then things in Rome, and the Franco-Prussian War, end up proceeding like OTL?
But one thing that's missing is if Italy makes a promise to not invade Itay, they need to break their promise to the French Provisional Government, which will end up continuing postwar, or keep waiting outside Rome, and resent it. They won't have the convenient change of regime in France as a nice distracting moment to use to break their promise,
Or perhaps, the post-Sedan French Provisional Government won't even bother trying to get Italy to make any promises of leaving the Papal state alone as it tries to recall the French troops, it just wants the troops for the war at home and figures the Italians can do WTF they want.
But might that weaken the support of some conservative Catholics for the French Provisional Government?
Or might the multiple weeks' delay in having their Italian ambitions satisfied, while seeing France visibly weakened, tempt the Italian government to ally with Prussia, the North German Confederation and its south German allies, in order to have allies as the Torino government orders a march on Rome, and subsequent on Nizza and Savoy, and possibly a landing on Corsica after that?
In OTL, Italian opinion, especially of dreamers and idealists like Garibaldi, swung dramatically from pro-Prussian to pro-French in the Sept-Oct timeframe as the French regime turned to Republican and Prussian demands for Alsace-Lorraine were revealed. Garibaldi even went to France and led anti-Prussian volunteers. But does this swing still have to happen if there is more delay satisfying Italian national interest in Rome?
Could a Kingdom of Italy decision to poach lands from a demonstrably weakened France be more plausible in a situation where the admired Garibaldi accidentally drowns on one of his morning swims at Caprera in early September 1870?
Would such an Italian intervention in the Franco-Prussian war win Italy territory, and lock Italy and Germany firmly in partnership in the century ahead in defense of their wartime gains? Or could their partnership still end up disrupted by problems related to Iralia Irredenta in Austrian hands?
Or, alternatively, even more convoluted, could negotiations over the terms departure of French troops from Rome between the French Provisional government and the Kingdom of Italy result in a surprising "grand bargain", where France yields Rome directly to the Torino government, and probably yields even more territory, most likely Nizza.....and just maybe Savoy, in exchange for a Franco-Italian alliance, and commitment of the Italian Army to deploy to support the French Armies Levee-ing En Masse, with the objective of keeping France's border with Germany whole? What could that lead to?
