Most likely policies of Hitler successors at key pre-war and early war points
Jan 15, 2024 1:00:37 GMT
American hist likes this
Post by raharris1973 on Jan 15, 2024 1:00:37 GMT
Let's imagine a scenario where Hitler dies by a true accident (falling in the tub, from stairs, from a horse, an accidental gas leak/explosion, plane crash, auto accident, train wreck, etc.) or a "lone nut/lone wolf" assassination with no takeover conspiracy or organized coup behind it.
As a random occurrence, with bad luck, it could happen at almost any time during his rule, so I will ask you to imagine if it happened at particular times when his successors in the Nazi regime would have still have significant decisions of importance left to make, even while living with the legacy of Hitler's regime, the Nazi system, and the regime's domestic and foreign actions, victories, and liabilities and commitments already acquired by the proposed time of Hitler's death.
Here goes:
a) Hitler dies Christmas time 1933, nearly a year after his appointment as Chancellor, 11 months after the Reichstag fire and Enabling Act, after Germany's angry quitting from the League of Nations, but about a month before the Non-Aggression Pact with Poland, several months before the Night of the Long Knives and Purge of the SA, a year and a half before the Anglo-German Naval Agreement, revival of conscription and the Luftwaffe. Who would most likely succeed him and would any successor most likely have the chops to make all, or any, of the underlined moves?
b) Hitler dies Christmas time 1935, after having already reintroduced conscription and the Luftwaffe and the AGNA, but a few months before the reoccupation/remilitarization of the Rhineland and proclamation of a Rome-Berlin Axis and Anti-Comintern Pact with Japan and Italy. Who would most likely succeed him at this point and what moves in foreign and domestic policy would they most likely make over the next five years. Most importantly, would they move to remilitarize the Rhineland in March 1936? If not then, a later time? Never? Would they send aid and the volunteer Condor Legion to fight in Spain?
c) Hitler dies at Hannukah time 1937? Who succeeds him? What is their agenda the next five years? Do they force Anschluss/unification with Austria in March 1938? If not then, when? Ever? Kristallnacht?
d) Hitler dies on July 4th 1938? Who succeeds him? What is their agenda the next five years? Do they force a war with Czechoslovakia over the Sudetenland dispute? Do they succeed in using the threat of war, rather than actual war, to force the Czechs and other powers to concede Sudetenland to Germany? Would this happen as quickly as Hitler achieved it in OTL? Or be followed by other aggressions?
e) Hitler dies at Hanukkah time (Nov-Dec) 1938? Who succeeds him? What is their agenda the next five years? Do they order the occupation of Bohemia-Moravia and dismantlement of rump Czechoslovakia? Or leave rump Czechoslovakia alone?
f) Hitler dies at Passover time (March-April) 1939? Who succeeds him? What is their agenda the next five years? Do they go to war against Poland that year or any other, in the expectation Germany can take on Poland alone, and outside intervention is a bluff? Do they sign a non-aggression and trade pact with the USSR to hedge their bets diplomatically?
g) Hitler dies at Hanukkah time (Nov-Dec) 1939? Who succeeds him? How does he deal with the blockade and the phony war, and the military's cold feet about attacking the west. When is an attack on the west ultimately launched? Is it delayed until impractical or until odds of success shift?
h) Hitler dies at Hanukkah time (Nov-Dec) 1940? Who succeeds him? Does he invade the USSR in 1941 or any other year, or try to take a "one war at a time" approach to finish the war with Britain first? How does that play out? If attacking the USSR, any major differences in campaign design or occupation policy of significant effect?
I apologize for the repetitive structure here, but that's how it goes.
I didn't bother to create an additional death point between his DoW on the USSR and his DoW on the USA, because I think the significance of his DoW on the USA is overrated. If Japan brought the US into the war, that plus quasi-war with the US in the Atlantic and US-UK co-belligerency would have inevitably gone worldwide to bring about all out US German war.
And every decision after this or by this point was sort of about the details of kind of defeat and some very short-term changes in outcome, not medium or long-term ones.
I also wonder, in each case, how Hitler's epitaph would read.
As a random occurrence, with bad luck, it could happen at almost any time during his rule, so I will ask you to imagine if it happened at particular times when his successors in the Nazi regime would have still have significant decisions of importance left to make, even while living with the legacy of Hitler's regime, the Nazi system, and the regime's domestic and foreign actions, victories, and liabilities and commitments already acquired by the proposed time of Hitler's death.
Here goes:
a) Hitler dies Christmas time 1933, nearly a year after his appointment as Chancellor, 11 months after the Reichstag fire and Enabling Act, after Germany's angry quitting from the League of Nations, but about a month before the Non-Aggression Pact with Poland, several months before the Night of the Long Knives and Purge of the SA, a year and a half before the Anglo-German Naval Agreement, revival of conscription and the Luftwaffe. Who would most likely succeed him and would any successor most likely have the chops to make all, or any, of the underlined moves?
b) Hitler dies Christmas time 1935, after having already reintroduced conscription and the Luftwaffe and the AGNA, but a few months before the reoccupation/remilitarization of the Rhineland and proclamation of a Rome-Berlin Axis and Anti-Comintern Pact with Japan and Italy. Who would most likely succeed him at this point and what moves in foreign and domestic policy would they most likely make over the next five years. Most importantly, would they move to remilitarize the Rhineland in March 1936? If not then, a later time? Never? Would they send aid and the volunteer Condor Legion to fight in Spain?
c) Hitler dies at Hannukah time 1937? Who succeeds him? What is their agenda the next five years? Do they force Anschluss/unification with Austria in March 1938? If not then, when? Ever? Kristallnacht?
d) Hitler dies on July 4th 1938? Who succeeds him? What is their agenda the next five years? Do they force a war with Czechoslovakia over the Sudetenland dispute? Do they succeed in using the threat of war, rather than actual war, to force the Czechs and other powers to concede Sudetenland to Germany? Would this happen as quickly as Hitler achieved it in OTL? Or be followed by other aggressions?
e) Hitler dies at Hanukkah time (Nov-Dec) 1938? Who succeeds him? What is their agenda the next five years? Do they order the occupation of Bohemia-Moravia and dismantlement of rump Czechoslovakia? Or leave rump Czechoslovakia alone?
f) Hitler dies at Passover time (March-April) 1939? Who succeeds him? What is their agenda the next five years? Do they go to war against Poland that year or any other, in the expectation Germany can take on Poland alone, and outside intervention is a bluff? Do they sign a non-aggression and trade pact with the USSR to hedge their bets diplomatically?
g) Hitler dies at Hanukkah time (Nov-Dec) 1939? Who succeeds him? How does he deal with the blockade and the phony war, and the military's cold feet about attacking the west. When is an attack on the west ultimately launched? Is it delayed until impractical or until odds of success shift?
h) Hitler dies at Hanukkah time (Nov-Dec) 1940? Who succeeds him? Does he invade the USSR in 1941 or any other year, or try to take a "one war at a time" approach to finish the war with Britain first? How does that play out? If attacking the USSR, any major differences in campaign design or occupation policy of significant effect?
I apologize for the repetitive structure here, but that's how it goes.
I didn't bother to create an additional death point between his DoW on the USSR and his DoW on the USA, because I think the significance of his DoW on the USA is overrated. If Japan brought the US into the war, that plus quasi-war with the US in the Atlantic and US-UK co-belligerency would have inevitably gone worldwide to bring about all out US German war.
And every decision after this or by this point was sort of about the details of kind of defeat and some very short-term changes in outcome, not medium or long-term ones.
I also wonder, in each case, how Hitler's epitaph would read.
