America's Secret War Plan to Invade Canada

  It would depend on the circumstances.  How much has the US mobilised, how quickly and what has the British/allied responses been?  If either side think they can keep the war limited they might not deploy to other areas and give the opponent an advantage.  As such one or the other may not seek immediate conflict in the Caribbean.  However Britain has significant colonies and trade there while the US will of course seek to protect the Panama canal especially.  The Bahamas because of their very close proximity are highly vulnerable but high importantly the US would value Jamaica, Bermuda and Trinidad for instance?  Also do the USN concentrate their fleet to support an attack on the Canadian east coast or risk dispersing elements to support operations in the Gulf [let alone the Pacific coast and their possessions in the Pacific?  Which gives the potential for defeat in detail.  [As I understand it the USN was highly committed to the ideas of Mahan, which would suggest they would keep their battlefleet concentrated to seek a decisive battle with the RN.  Which might mean Britain has the time to reinforce assorted outposts and colonies].  How much warning does Britain have by any US mobilisation to concentrate forces and possibly disengage from watching Turkey and the Soviets?  Which way do early battles, both at land and sea go as some early upsets could derail plans.  How quickly would Japan and France join Britain?

  I can't see Britain threatening Puerto Rico early on as its priority would be the defence of Canada and also the London government may be seeking to limit the war and bring it to a quick negotiated settlement.  [Depending on the circumstances,  If there is a US attack with clear intent to conquer and annex Canada this could be seen as a need to switch to total war immediately].  However its likely to seek to act against the Panama canal to limit US use of it, both militarily and commercial.  Not likely to be direct attack but say mining the approaches or having some subs operating in the area.  They might also investigate how Columbia is feeling and whether its still sore about the loss of the province.

  One other point with a US campaign in the Caribbean is how important race might be.  Britain was pretty racist at the time but I suspect not as much as the US and I could see there being a lot of resistance to American occupation as their policies are likely to be fairly harsh.  Especially since many of the occupying troops are likely to be white southerners. 

  Steve

  That would be important.  Both economically and also if as I suspect they have most of their fleet in the Atlantic to face the RN it would make their Pacific possessions a lot more difficult to defend.  Which makes an attack on Hawaii by either British or Japanese forces and Japanese reinforcement of British Columbia a lot easier.

  Also if the UK could actually gain the canal zone, although I think it unlikely in the short term, offering it either to Panama or [with Panama] to Columbia it could be politically useful and a significant blow to US influence in Latin America.

  Steve

  The US will be mistrusted a lot, especially by those European nations with colonial or economic interests in the Americas.  The worth of the Monroe doctrine will be measured more in how successful they are in the war.  If they have conquered Canada and also won naval superiority in the Caribbean and mopped up British and possibly French colonies while they will be detested they will be fear so for the 1st time it would have real weight.  If they have lost it is pretty much history, at least for a while.

  Steve

  I would say I would expect France to support Britain and hence the US would have to seek to take those colonies as well.  I think this for a number of reasons including:
a)  Britain is France's most important ally and Canada has also spent a considerable amount of blood and money in defence of France.  While Germany is pretty much prostrate at the moment there is already fear of a revival there and with Russia under the Soviets Poland is the only counter to the east.  France would not want to be isolated by Britain being defeated and possibly alienated by a lack of French support.

b)  There is likely to be some concern about the plight of the French Canadians as well in the event of an American conquest.  .

c)  If as we're assuming the US is seen as the aggressor then there would be a morale objection and also a fear that if the US is attacking Britain and its interests today French ones might be next.  [Depends on the circumstances of the run up to the war here which we really need to clarify].  Most especially their two islands off Newfoundland and the important access to the Grand Banks fisheries as those could easily get dragged into any conflict if the US got that far.

d)  Its also possible that war could occur without deliberate intent.  If France takes Britain's side diplomatically and/or boosts its garrisons in its Caribbean colonies then the US could fear their going to join the war when their ready and decide a pre-emptive strike or possibly an ultimatum that Paris finds unacceptable.

e) If we're being maccy about it you don't pay debts to nations your at war with so France and other powers might have an interest in at least cancelling/postponing war debt repayments to the US. Whether this is part of joining the anti-American alliance or it prompts the US in turn to take a more aggressive approach to them.

  There is also the factor that any such war will impact on trade through the region although this could have France and other affected powers angry with both sides.  However recent history and common interests are likely to mean France sides more with Britain than with the US.

  Steve

  That is the primarily point and why I was initially doubtful about a lasting Canadian conquest and annexation.  What is the basis for the war and how completely are the two sides committed.  No matter the circumstances I can't see a US attack with the intent to annex Canada doing anything but to unite Britain [at least outside the mess that is Ireland at this period and even there possibly] and the dominions in support of Canada but what is the basis for a US dow and such actions.  Especially so shortly after the end of "the war to end all wars".  Plus if the US initiates gas warfare as was in its plans this faces them with militarily and diplomatic problems, both serious ones.

  Steve

  Lordroel

  Afraid I'm off for 4 weeks so only a very quick response.  The key point is the use of gas in WWI was on the battlefield.  In any attack on Halifax [which I think was the target primarily mentioned but there might have been others] its not just a naval base but also a major port and a population centre.  Also, whether via air attack or naval bombardment, its going to be less accurate than army artillery firing on a battlefield.  As such there are likely to be substantial civilian casualties. More-so as this was I believe to be part of a surprise attack to seize key distant locations quickly.  As such some nasty cans of worms are potentially opened, both diplomatically and in military terms.  If attacks on population centres start its likely that the allies will retaliate and this is very dangerous for the US.  While Britain has possible bases in Canada, the Caribbean, Bermuda etc or even the huge advantage in carrier strength it had at the time US coastal centres are vulnerable to counter-strikes while its pretty much impossible for the US to strike targets outside N America.

  Steve

A US government that would invade Canada would also be a possible Ally for Nazi Germany. Once the war broke out in Europe the loss of US supplies and Canadian troops would make it tough for the UK and also the USSR. If the UK was still at war with the US when War breaks out in Europe there would be the possibility of US participation in Operation Sealion. Having the US Navy allied with Germany would allow the Royal Navy to be neutralized. A more robust US military with 4 or 5 years of war experience in Canada would open the possibility of an Operation Torch type of landing anywhere on the western coast of the UK. Another possibility would be a US-Irish alliance. Thus providing a US base right off the coast.