Viking England 878
There was no written treaty of 878. There was one between 878-890 the last year of Guthrum rule and life which we all know off – separating Danelaw from Wessex – Wætlinga/Watling Street etc.
Mercia had been severed in a Danish Eastern part and a Kingdom of Mercia ruled by Ceorlwulf till his death 879. Interestingly Guthrum and his Army following the peace with Alfred spent a year in Mercia before returning to East Anglia – perhaps Guthrum had Ceorlwulf off'd or Æthelred who ruled as lord of Mercia following Ceorlwulfs disapperance/death untill 911.
Leaving Mercia Guthrum went to East Anglia 879 and a Viking Army sailed up the Thames camping at Fulham for the winter and them went west fighting with Alfred. To counter which Alfred set up the Burghs.
Further north Guthred ruled in York – from ca 883 - all the way north to the River Tyne and south to Danish Mercia (see map)
Now what was Danish Mercia? According to another map it was called the Five Borroughs which was a conglomerate of Viking rulers in the area.
Now suppose Guthrum wins Ethandun/Effingham – no baptism of Guthrum. No lodging at Cirenchester for a year in the comforts provided by Ceorlwulf. Instead Guthrum will be busy running through Wessex to establish his rule.
Then perhaps at the end of the year he may visit Ceorlwulf and do him off.
As Guthrum goes home he is visited by a much unwanted Viking Army at London. Should Guthrum survive this he will go rule East Anglia and Wessex and probably secure his overlordship of Mercia.
Then there is the question of Northumbria.
Guthred came to rule ca 883 following the ousting of Halfdan Ragnarsson from Northumbria 877 and held power till 894/5 when Siegfredus became king of Northumbria and Cnut Roricson became King of Jorvik – or they co-ruled.
Confused?
So am I.
The thing is before some kind of England – Danish or Saxon - emerges there will be a lot of Viking infighting. At least for some years.
Of course the Saxons will try their hand at times if only because not all their local leaders will be removed by Vikings; because of their few numbers.
Technically there may be Danish rule in all of England – if the King of East Anglia want so and isn't consumed in fighting his brethern in Northumbria. But then they may be occupied fighting the Dubliners (NOT the Folk Music Group) or the Scots – or both.
Even the King or Norway or Denmark may at times try their hand at Wessex – West Mercia but will run into the problems of the Eastern Danish Kings; lack of internal waterways.
If you look at the map you'll see why the Danes managed to hold onto the Eastern Half of England – waterways!
Only about perhaps 1000 will the Vikings have attained the numbers – perhaps – to try going for the rest of the island. Or the Kings of Denmark will have pacified their lands and be able to go on conquest in England. Or some Duke may sail from Normandy..