lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Feb 20, 2016 19:05:12 GMT
Engelbert Dollfuss lives: Anschluss War
What if Chancellor Engelbert Dollfuss of the Federal State of Austria was not assassinated on July 25th 1934 during in the July Putsch, a failed coup d'état attempt against the Austrofascist regime by Austrian Nazis. Thus on February 12th 1938 Chancellor Engelbert Dollfuss (not his successor Kurt Schuschnigg) meets with Adolf Hitler at the Berchtesgaden where Adolf Hitler demands that the Chancellor signs an agreement which will see the transfer of power in Austria to the Austrian National Socialists, appointment of pro-Nazi ministers, hundred officers to be exchanged between the Austrian and the German armies and all imprisoned Nazis to be amnestied be reinstated.
After hearing this the Chancellor who is not amused by the demands that Hitler has made refuses to sign the Berchtesgaden agreement as it is called and despite abusive and threatening from Adolf Hitler to sign the agreement he leaves informing him that Austria will remain a free country as long as he lives, two days later he is wounded in a failed assassination attempt (the July 25th 1934 never happened do the people being arrested before they could kill him) which causes the Austria people to stand behind their chancellor while in the capitol of the Third Reich, Adolf Hitler decides that if Austria will not join under be pressure or treat then he will have the German army invade Austria instead.
So my question is how the Anschluss War look like and what will Great Britain and the French Republic responds be.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Mar 14, 2016 22:17:58 GMT
Lordroel
The key point may be Italy, although I think after the limited western opposition to their attack on Ethiopia Italy had given up on supporting Austria as a buffer to German expansion. As such its difficult to see the western powers being able to seriously oppose a German attack on Austria. Although Germany is a lot weaker at this period I fear the western allies lack the will to seriously attack Germany so after some bloody fighting Austria will fall. Not sure what Czechoslovakia will do, fearing [correctly] they might be next.
If the western powers go to war Germany is nowhere near strong enough to attack the west at this point, especially as it lacks the resources of Bohemia and will have suffered military losses in Austria rather than taking over the latter's military as OTL.
One other possible butterfly. The Spanish civil war is ongoing and the 'Condor Legion' is already operating there. If it can't be withdrawn then the infant Luftwaffe will lack most of its experience. Also what would be the allies attitude to the conflict. They might still be unlikely to side with the Republicans as their tainted by Soviet 'support' but might try and make a deal with Franco to have him split from Hitler in return for some western aid?
Steve
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Mar 18, 2016 10:21:18 GMT
Lordroel The key point may be Italy, although I think after the limited western opposition to their attack on Ethiopia Italy had given up on supporting Austria as a buffer to German expansion. As such its difficult to see the western powers being able to seriously oppose a German attack on Austria. Although Germany is a lot weaker at this period I fear the western allies lack the will to seriously attack Germany so after some bloody fighting Austria will fall. Not sure what Czechoslovakia will do, fearing [correctly] they might be next. If the western powers go to war Germany is nowhere near strong enough to attack the west at this point, especially as it lacks the resources of Bohemia and will have suffered military losses in Austria rather than taking over the latter's military as OTL. One other possible butterfly. The Spanish civil war is ongoing and the 'Condor Legion' is already operating there. If it can't be withdrawn then the infant Luftwaffe will lack most of its experience. Also what would be the allies attitude to the conflict. They might still be unlikely to side with the Republicans as their tainted by Soviet 'support' but might try and make a deal with Franco to have him split from Hitler in return for some western aid? Steve Could Hitler not cause a a second civil war to erupt in Austria, there are plenty of Austrian Nazis who hate the Dollfuss regime, this give Hitler the pretext for invading Austria and weakening the ability for the Dollfuss regime to organize are strong resistance if they are already fighting against his opponents in a civil war. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Mar 18, 2016 10:39:29 GMT
Lordroel The key point may be Italy, although I think after the limited western opposition to their attack on Ethiopia Italy had given up on supporting Austria as a buffer to German expansion. As such its difficult to see the western powers being able to seriously oppose a German attack on Austria. Although Germany is a lot weaker at this period I fear the western allies lack the will to seriously attack Germany so after some bloody fighting Austria will fall. Not sure what Czechoslovakia will do, fearing [correctly] they might be next. If the western powers go to war Germany is nowhere near strong enough to attack the west at this point, especially as it lacks the resources of Bohemia and will have suffered military losses in Austria rather than taking over the latter's military as OTL. One other possible butterfly. The Spanish civil war is ongoing and the 'Condor Legion' is already operating there. If it can't be withdrawn then the infant Luftwaffe will lack most of its experience. Also what would be the allies attitude to the conflict. They might still be unlikely to side with the Republicans as their tainted by Soviet 'support' but might try and make a deal with Franco to have him split from Hitler in return for some western aid? Steve Could Hitler not cause a a second civil war to erupt in Austria, there are plenty of Austrian Nazis who hate the Dollfuss regime, this give Hitler the pretext for invading Austria and weakening the ability for the Dollfuss regime to organize are strong resistance if they are already fighting against his opponents in a civil war. That would very likely be the path chosen with Hitler claiming he was moving in support of Austrians who wanted to 'reunite' the German people and to protect them against Dollfusses persecution. You could see virtual civil war in Austria but at least the Germans would have to do some fighting and cause some alienation while the fact he is clearing imposing his aims by force could weaken the appeasement movement in the west so a later move against the Czechs could face more resistance. Steve |
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Mar 18, 2016 10:47:59 GMT
Could Hitler not cause a a second civil war to erupt in Austria, there are plenty of Austrian Nazis who hate the Dollfuss regime, this give Hitler the pretext for invading Austria and weakening the ability for the Dollfuss regime to organize are strong resistance if they are already fighting against his opponents in a civil war. That would very likely be the path chosen with Hitler claiming he was moving in support of Austrians who wanted to 'reunite' the German people and to protect them against Dollfusses persecution. You could see virtual civil war in Austria but at least the Germans would have to do some fighting and cause some alienation while the fact he is clearing imposing his aims by force could weaken the appeasement movement in the west so a later move against the Czechs could face more resistance. Steve Check this PDF out i found Austrian 1938 Army Capability, it shows one thing i did not know: - Austrian army had ammunition for only 3 days. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Mar 18, 2016 10:53:02 GMT
Lordroel
Ouch! That makes for far less military resistance than I was thinking. Especially since that 3 days ammo may vastly underestimate the actual demand of those units in the heaviest fighting.
Steve
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Mar 18, 2016 11:00:01 GMT
Lordroel Ouch! That makes for far less military resistance than I was thinking. Especially since that 3 days ammo may vastly underestimate the actual demand of those units in the heaviest fighting. Steve Can be read on page 52 of the PDF which has a lot of detail about how Austria prepared for a war against Germany and Italy involvement in it. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Mar 18, 2016 11:16:39 GMT
Thanks Lordroel. Sounds like Jansa at least was determined to fight but that there was little ammo although some useful capacity.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Mar 18, 2016 11:23:45 GMT
Thanks Lordroel. Sounds like Jansa at least was determined to fight but that there was little ammo although some useful capacity. Maybe if Hitler pushes more and somehow has Engelbert Dollfuss removed from power (a coup or a assassination) might prevent the Anschluss War from happening as it will hurt Germany and will destroy Austria. |
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pats2001
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Post by pats2001 on Mar 28, 2016 12:24:11 GMT
That would very likely be the path chosen with Hitler claiming he was moving in support of Austrians who wanted to 'reunite' the German people and to protect them against Dollfusses persecution. You could see virtual civil war in Austria but at least the Germans would have to do some fighting and cause some alienation while the fact he is clearing imposing his aims by force could weaken the appeasement movement in the west so a later move against the Czechs could face more resistance. Steve Check this PDF out i found Austrian 1938 Army Capability, it shows one thing i did not know: - Austrian army had ammunition for only 3 days. That's kind of a problem when you're trying to defend yourself against a hostile neighbor. |
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Mar 28, 2016 14:22:31 GMT
That's kind of a problem when you're trying to defend yourself against a hostile neighbor. Yes it is, but three days is enough to show the world that Austria is not going down with out a fight. |
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pats2001
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Post by pats2001 on Mar 28, 2016 20:23:01 GMT
You may be right.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Mar 29, 2016 3:02:56 GMT
Maybe it could happen with Engelbert Dollfuss escaping to Czechoslovakia where he sets up a government in exile setting the stage for a different German-Czechoslovakia confrontation than OTL. |
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pats2001
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Post by pats2001 on Mar 29, 2016 16:38:05 GMT
A '30s Domino Effect, you might say.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Mar 29, 2016 16:53:12 GMT
A '30s Domino Effect, you might say. Yes it is, but i would think if Engelbert Dollfuss manged to escape to Czechoslovakia where he sets up a Austria government in exile in Germany Reich Minister of Propaganda Joseph Goebbels will launch a massive propaganda campaign against Engelbert Dollfuss blaming him for the start of the Anschluss War and that Germany was forced into the war by a dictator who did not listen to the wishes of his people and that instead of staying in Austria he abounded his people. |
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