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Post by raharris1973 on Oct 19, 2023 2:22:51 GMT
Inspired by the discussion over in the what if Germany attacks west in 1939 thread:
So attacking West in 1939 is being handled in a whole different thread.
But now, the question I am asking is this, "What if the final campaign design the Germans adopted and launched in spring 1940, avoided invading and occupying the Netherlands?"
What happens as a consequence? Does respecting Netherlands neutrality (at least on the ground and most of the airspace) simply make it impossible for Germany to succeed in beating France, Belgium, and Britain in the 1940 campaign? Or could the Germans still achieve a success basically matching that of OTL? Or something in between the two options I outlined?
I will give you flexibility to have the Germans alter their campaign design to taste and fit, as long as Netherlands is left alone. It can be north-central Belgium heavy, or it can be Ardennes heavy. It is completely optional whether it starts in April, May or June. Whether the Germans do the Denmark and Norway invasions is completely optional.
Can the Germans win, and occupy France and Belgium?
How will Netherlands neutrality, if preserved in Europe, affect DEI trade policy, particularly regarding oil, with Japan in 1940 and 1941? Will Netherlands continue to sell for cash as a strictly neutral behavior, instead of participating in any embargoes? What might the maximum or minimum effects on the Pacific be?
What would the effects on the postwar be? Presuming Europe like OTL is liberated from west and east, perhaps Netherlands remains staunchly neutral through the Cold War, instead of a NATO country? Or perhaps, like another couple WWII neutrals, Turkey and Portugal, it nevertheless signs on after NATO is created.
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575
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Post by 575 on Oct 19, 2023 8:05:12 GMT
Inspired by the discussion over in the what if Germany attacks west in 1939 thread: So attacking West in 1939 is being handled in a whole different thread. But now, the question I am asking is this, " What if the final campaign design the Germans adopted and launched in spring 1940, avoided invading and occupying the Netherlands?" What happens as a consequence? Does respecting Netherlands neutrality (at least on the ground and most of the airspace) simply make it impossible for Germany to succeed in beating France, Belgium, and Britain in the 1940 campaign? Or could the Germans still achieve a success basically matching that of OTL? Or something in between the two options I outlined? I will give you flexibility to have the Germans alter their campaign design to taste and fit, as long as Netherlands is left alone. It can be north-central Belgium heavy, or it can be Ardennes heavy. It is completely optional whether it starts in April, May or June. Whether the Germans do the Denmark and Norway invasions is completely optional. Can the Germans win, and occupy France and Belgium? How will Netherlands neutrality, if preserved in Europe, affect DEI trade policy, particularly regarding oil, with Japan in 1940 and 1941? Will Netherlands continue to sell for cash as a strictly neutral behavior, instead of participating in any embargoes? What might the maximum or minimum effects on the Pacific be? What would the effects on the postwar be? Presuming Europe like OTL is liberated from west and east, perhaps Netherlands remains staunchly neutral through the Cold War, instead of a NATO country? Or perhaps, like another couple WWII neutrals, Turkey and Portugal, it nevertheless signs on after NATO is created. With that premise the Germans will still succeede to carry out their operation and defeat the Western Allies. It doesn't change the campaign as it still as intended in Belgium plays into the hands - and minds - of the French. It being designed to hold the attention and still will do so.
Might see a Parachute option somewhere like across the Meuse at Sedan.
The Dutch may reach the conclusion that to stay out of trouble we just sell the Oil to the Japanese they want and excuse ourselves towards the British and US that we are just a small defenceless nation left to ourselves doing what we can to stay afloat. Guess the British may ponder an occupation of NEI to stop the oil trade. Kind of Weserubung in the Far East.
Postwar - Netherlands may still need access to the Marshall plan to modernize its farming and industry which may well entice it into NATO.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Oct 19, 2023 13:51:24 GMT
I would agree that with a spring 40 attack, especially if using the sickle cut will very likely win much as OTL. You might get things going slightly slower because the German north flank is restricted and the allies not drawn quite as far north but I doubt it would make a big different to the fall of France. You could get some butterfly such as a slight difference in personal living/dying compared to OTL or even say the Anglo-French union being accepted or simply France fighting on from N Africa and the rest of the empire.
Also agree that while the Netherlands would be pressurised hard by both sides it would complicate the war for both but especially the allies early on. You have the political question of Dutch trade and how the British handle this fitting in with its blockade of the Axis. Which could make support from the US being more difficult as the isolationists will be able to use any British restrictions on Dutch trade as a weapon to attack Roosevelt with. At the same time how do you handle overseas traffic going through a war zone of the waters around the UK and across the North Sea. If Britain does the same sort of thing as during the Napoleonic wars with Dutch/neutral shipping having to stop at British ports to check for contraband what happens when such ships are attacked by German bombers, German U-boats if in convoys across the Atlantic, or hit mines?
Similarly as mentioned on the other site its going to complicate any strategic bombing campaign from the UK against Germany as they would have to avoid Dutch air-space. Which given the difficulty of night time navigation at this point means there would probably be a fair number of purely accidental infringements.
In terms of the DEI a lot could depend on German views of actions in the Far East. Since Japan didn't immediately come to Germany's aid in attacking the Soviets - which isn't surprising given that Japan, worried by the Nazi-Soviet pact and increasingly concerned about western pressure opposing its war in China and being kept in the dark about the German invasion had no incentive to support their 'ally' here, As such would Germany be that willing to pressurize the Netherlands to sell oil to Japan? Probably to some degree but possibly not a major issue for Berlin? Coupled with what pressure/promises Washington might give.
I doubt that Britain would be willing to invade the DEI as there would be a clear diplomatic cost while it would throw the Netherlands into the Axis camp, however unwilling or not. Plus its unlikely that they would have manpower to do so. However while the DEI could supply Japan will a lot of oil it wouldn't be able to meet other Japanese needs and if assets in the US especially are frozen there might be limits on how long Japan is able/willing to actually pay anything like a market price for the oil. It does make for an interesting issue in terms of what Japan and the US both do in such a situation.
If the Netherlands do stay neutral throughout the war then I would expect they would be western aligned post-war but possibly not in any NATO equivalent initially.
One other thought comes to mind. How much pressure would the Netherlands come under to hand over its Jews to the Nazis and how many more Jews might escape from the genocide by reaching the country and then possibly being able to escape to Britain and the US.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Oct 19, 2023 17:03:43 GMT
Inspired by the discussion over in the what if Germany attacks west in 1939 thread: So attacking West in 1939 is being handled in a whole different thread. But now, the question I am asking is this, "What if the final campaign design the Germans adopted and launched in spring 1940, avoided invading and occupying the Netherlands?" What happens as a consequence? Does respecting Netherlands neutrality (at least on the ground and most of the airspace) simply make it impossible for Germany to succeed in beating France, Belgium, and Britain in the 1940 campaign? Or could the Germans still achieve a success basically matching that of OTL? Or something in between the two options I outlined? I will give you flexibility to have the Germans alter their campaign design to taste and fit, as long as Netherlands is left alone. It can be north-central Belgium heavy, or it can be Ardennes heavy. It is completely optional whether it starts in April, May or June. Whether the Germans do the Denmark and Norway invasions is completely optional. Can the Germans win, and occupy France and Belgium? How will Netherlands neutrality, if preserved in Europe, affect DEI trade policy, particularly regarding oil, with Japan in 1940 and 1941? Will Netherlands continue to sell for cash as a strictly neutral behavior, instead of participating in any embargoes? What might the maximum or minimum effects on the Pacific be? What would the effects on the postwar be? Presuming Europe like OTL is liberated from west and east, perhaps Netherlands remains staunchly neutral through the Cold War, instead of a NATO country? Or perhaps, like another couple WWII neutrals, Turkey and Portugal, it nevertheless signs on after NATO is created. The Netherlands still will be drawn into a war in 1941 when Japan, a German ally invades the Netherlands East Indies. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Oct 20, 2023 13:15:45 GMT
Inspired by the discussion over in the what if Germany attacks west in 1939 thread: So attacking West in 1939 is being handled in a whole different thread. But now, the question I am asking is this, "What if the final campaign design the Germans adopted and launched in spring 1940, avoided invading and occupying the Netherlands?" What happens as a consequence? Does respecting Netherlands neutrality (at least on the ground and most of the airspace) simply make it impossible for Germany to succeed in beating France, Belgium, and Britain in the 1940 campaign? Or could the Germans still achieve a success basically matching that of OTL? Or something in between the two options I outlined? I will give you flexibility to have the Germans alter their campaign design to taste and fit, as long as Netherlands is left alone. It can be north-central Belgium heavy, or it can be Ardennes heavy. It is completely optional whether it starts in April, May or June. Whether the Germans do the Denmark and Norway invasions is completely optional. Can the Germans win, and occupy France and Belgium? How will Netherlands neutrality, if preserved in Europe, affect DEI trade policy, particularly regarding oil, with Japan in 1940 and 1941? Will Netherlands continue to sell for cash as a strictly neutral behavior, instead of participating in any embargoes? What might the maximum or minimum effects on the Pacific be? What would the effects on the postwar be? Presuming Europe like OTL is liberated from west and east, perhaps Netherlands remains staunchly neutral through the Cold War, instead of a NATO country? Or perhaps, like another couple WWII neutrals, Turkey and Portugal, it nevertheless signs on after NATO is created. The Netherlands still will be drawn into a war in 1941 when Japan, a German ally invades the Netherlands East Indies.
Yes assuming that war still occurs, which seems likely although the date might change somewhat. At that point would the Netherlands want to continue staying neutral in the European conflict to avoid being occupied or at the very least the scene of heavy fighting? If so would the Germans allow this and what would the British and American viewpoint be. If the crisis occurred Dec 41 as OTL - to make assumptions that make consideration easier - then the allies aren't in a position to aid the Netherlands against a German invasion although the Germans are also heavily committed in Russia at this time and about to see the failure to take Moscow becoming a major crisis.
The obvious example might be the French with Germany occupying Vichy after the allied invasion of FNA in Operation Torch. There are some differences but I suspect that your right that Hitler, possibly especially angry at the failure in Russia would decide that he couldn't allow the Netherlands to be unoccupied if its an ally of the western powers against Japan.  |
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Post by Max Sinister on Oct 22, 2023 16:59:06 GMT
Will they spare Limburg as well? This might become very difficult, to say the least. Even IOTL, their invasion force caused "the biggest traffic jam in history".
Also, I wonder whether the Wehrmacht might run out of ammo. Production fell in 1939 (sayeth Tooze), and they were running on fumes most of the time anyway.
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nomommsen
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Post by nomommsen on Oct 31, 2023 20:15:21 GMT
...
One other thought comes to mind. How much pressure would the Netherlands come under to hand over its Jews to the Nazis and how many more Jews might escape from the genocide by reaching the country and then possibly being able to escape to Britain and the US.
I somewhat doubt there could be considerable (or even any) jewish refugees fleeing Europe. In rather shorter time they would become a BIG problem for the Netherlands as well. Aside a growing food shortage for everyone (not helpd by some X00.000s refugees of rather urban than rural offspring) there were also antisemites in the Netherlands even before the war ... |
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nomommsen
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Post by nomommsen on Oct 31, 2023 20:26:25 GMT
Will they spare Limburg as well? This might become very difficult, to say the least. Even IOTL, their invasion force caused "the biggest traffic jam in history". Also, I wonder whether the Wehrmacht might run out of ammo. Production fell in 1939 (sayeth Tooze), and they were running on fumes most of the time anyway. Limburg ... what about a further airborne operation just crossing/hopping over this lil' corners? ... placing some troops north of the Albert canal with an attempt to catch the one or other bridge there? ... maybe as a 'distraction' from the action Eben-Emael? ... might also work to draw at least the belgian army northwards.
Why should the Wehrmacht run ITTL out of ammo more than IOTL?
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Post by TheRomanSlayer on Oct 31, 2023 20:46:51 GMT
This is my guess as to how a neutral Netherlands will have an affect on the entire war:
1) Given the Dutch control of the Dutch East Indies, the consensus here is that they'd continue to sell oil to Japan. Let's also assume that the US would still place an embargo on the sales of oil and other materials to Japan. My answer here is that, while it may not change much at all in the Pacific theater, the lack of an Indonesian theater in the Pacific conflict means Japan would have more troops to spare in fighting either the Chinese, the British in Malaya, or the US in the Philippines. I'm not exactly sure if this also means a more successful Pearl Harbor attack that includes attacking the oil storage there, as well as taking out the American carriers that are out in the high seas. If it does, then Japan would have to spare enough soldiers to secure all of the Hawaiian islands (Oahu, Maui, Kauai, and Hawaii island).
2) Trade between the Netherlands and Europe would become more complicated since there would be demands on both sides to stop trading with their respective opponents, but lessening their trade with the rest of the world would mean economic decline for the Netherlands, which might throw them into political chaos. Enough for Germany to pull some stunts on the Dutch that could result in regime change. Dutch neutrality could be a great asset for the Germans as much as it is a great asset for the Allies, in that both sides would have a harder time trying to launch offensives. Unfortunately, this might also mean that we may get a replay of the thrust into Belgium with a quicker conquest that would render a Second Marne pointless.
3) One crucial result of this that isn't being taken seriously: no animosity between the Netherlands and Germany. The German occupation of the Netherlands, plus some incidents that happened before the Canadians played a role in liberating the Netherlands alongside the UK and the US. However, you might get in turn a possible Anglo-Dutch animosity if the UK ended up attacking Dutch holdings somewhere in the Caribbean, for example. A possible worst case scenario would be the unsavory home grown fascists taking power in the Netherlands with Anton Mussert as its leader. Not sure what Mussert's relationship with Hitler was like.
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nomommsen
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Post by nomommsen on Oct 31, 2023 21:30:15 GMT
... If it does, then Japan would have to spare enough soldiers to secure all of the Hawaiian islands (Oahu, Maui, Kauai, and Hawaii island). ...  ... what would mean japanese occupation of these islands ... ever heard: it cannot be what's not allowed to be?
On some other fourm you might got (almost?) flamed for such a heresy.  |
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Post by TheRomanSlayer on Oct 31, 2023 21:53:22 GMT
... If it does, then Japan would have to spare enough soldiers to secure all of the Hawaiian islands (Oahu, Maui, Kauai, and Hawaii island). ... ... what would mean japanese occupation of these islands ... ever heard: it cannot be what's not allowed to be?
On some other fourm you might got (almost?) flamed for such a heresy. I could be wrong though, but the scenario of a Japanese occupation of the Hawaiian Islands came from Turtledove's Days of Infamy series. If you haven't read it, then I would advise you to read it before we discuss it. But even in that possible scenario, the Japanese occupation of Hawaii would be short, as American manpower and firepower would eventually lead to reconquering Hawaii and then the OTL Pacific island hopping goes. Other than that, the number of personnel involved in the Dutch East Indies campaign was close to 110,000. Absence of the DEI campaign, that huge number could be deployed to either reinforce the Chinese theater, the conflict against the British and Americans in SE Asia, or against the US in Hawaii. Alternatively, if Pearl Harbor was somehow successful, but no Japanese occupation and only the occupation of Wake and Midway Islands, their line of supply would still be long, but defensible enough to tolerate casualties and other losses until American firepower and American manpower comes at full swing. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Nov 1, 2023 9:20:26 GMT
...
One other thought comes to mind. How much pressure would the Netherlands come under to hand over its Jews to the Nazis and how many more Jews might escape from the genocide by reaching the country and then possibly being able to escape to Britain and the US.
I somewhat doubt there could be considerable (or even any) jewish refugees fleeing Europe. In rather shorter time they would become a BIG problem for the Netherlands as well. Aside a growing food shortage for everyone (not helpd by some X00.000s refugees of rather urban than rural offspring) there were also antisemites in the Netherlands even before the war ...
It would be difficult and risky but some exodus should be possible. After all Britain managed to get trade through with Sweden and also moving people in and out of occupied Norway and France. With a neutral Netherlands it should be possible to have civilian a/c flying between it and Britain, albeit with some escorts possibly required from off the Dutch coastline if the will is there.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Nov 1, 2023 9:38:25 GMT
This is my guess as to how a neutral Netherlands will have an affect on the entire war: 1) Given the Dutch control of the Dutch East Indies, the consensus here is that they'd continue to sell oil to Japan. Let's also assume that the US would still place an embargo on the sales of oil and other materials to Japan. My answer here is that, while it may not change much at all in the Pacific theater, the lack of an Indonesian theater in the Pacific conflict means Japan would have more troops to spare in fighting either the Chinese, the British in Malaya, or the US in the Philippines. I'm not exactly sure if this also means a more successful Pearl Harbor attack that includes attacking the oil storage there, as well as taking out the American carriers that are out in the high seas. If it does, then Japan would have to spare enough soldiers to secure all of the Hawaiian islands (Oahu, Maui, Kauai, and Hawaii island). 2) Trade between the Netherlands and Europe would become more complicated since there would be demands on both sides to stop trading with their respective opponents, but lessening their trade with the rest of the world would mean economic decline for the Netherlands, which might throw them into political chaos. Enough for Germany to pull some stunts on the Dutch that could result in regime change. Dutch neutrality could be a great asset for the Germans as much as it is a great asset for the Allies, in that both sides would have a harder time trying to launch offensives. Unfortunately, this might also mean that we may get a replay of the thrust into Belgium with a quicker conquest that would render a Second Marne pointless. 3) One crucial result of this that isn't being taken seriously: no animosity between the Netherlands and Germany. The German occupation of the Netherlands, plus some incidents that happened before the Canadians played a role in liberating the Netherlands alongside the UK and the US. However, you might get in turn a possible Anglo-Dutch animosity if the UK ended up attacking Dutch holdings somewhere in the Caribbean, for example. A possible worst case scenario would be the unsavory home grown fascists taking power in the Netherlands with Anton Mussert as its leader. Not sure what Mussert's relationship with Hitler was like.
1) They might be willing to sell oil but if the Japanese are heading south to secure other materials would they seek to take the DEI as well rather than having to pay for the oil? I suspect the islands wouldn't be any more heavily defended than OTL as the home country would be overwhelmingly concerned with its own defence. Possibly after the large scale capture of Malaya as that would free up forces used there and also supply bases near Sumatra and Java. I.e. the dow on the Netherlands probably come a month or so after the attacks on Britain and the US.
If they don't then they might use the forces elsewhere, probably in the Philippines and British territories but shipping would be the big issue, both in terms of units and also keeping them supplied. I doubt there would be much difference in any attack on Pearl as it strained Japanese logistics to the limit as it was and I think some of the DDs involved ended up being towed home as they ran out of fuel. An invasion of any of the Hawaiian islands would be impossible, both because of logistics and because that would also need army approval - as they would be supplying the troops - and they were reluctant to supply as much as they did OTL because their interests were in China and deterring the Soviets.
2) Trade would definitely be an issue for all three parties [Netherlands, allies and axis] I could see a lot of people, not just Jews, wanting to leave the Netherlands and/or get wealth out for fear of a German invasion. There would be a lot of tensions and disruption and it could go in any number of ways. The Nazis might seek to organise a coup by pro-Nazi factions and if that failed then seek to intervene if that failed to "restore order".
3) As long as the Germans don't invade there would be less hostility towards Germany after the war but I suspect that neutrality wouldn't last for long. It would come under political and economic pressure from both sides.
I can't see Britain making a military move on Dutch Caribbean possessions. It would upset the US and also its not like with the moves against French possessions as France was a German occupied state and there was the rival Free French government, neither of which would be the case with a neutral Netherlands. Of course at some point, especially assuming they join the war the US might well do something, especially if the Dutch are seen as aiding the Axis.
The other point, if other things go roughly as OTL might there be an invasion of the Netherlands in say 43/44? Either by the allies as the fastest route to Germany or by the Germans because they fear such a move?
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575
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Post by 575 on Nov 1, 2023 11:26:06 GMT
As during WWI the Netherlands as other neutrals like the Scandinavians would to some extend be regarded by the Germans as a source of clandestine import of war necessities. During WWI the Germans decided not to enter the Netherlands as it would have a negative effect upon their ability to wage war - looked up this and this regarding WWI. The situation in Europe WWII is different as Nazi-Germany still have the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact for war necessities. Still it made a trade deal with Denmark which enabled that country to continue trading with BOTH Nazi-Germany and Britain - which had also been the case during WWI. At least untill German occupation. The Contraband in terms of Law of War was still adhered to in principle though upon approval of bellingerents. Thus the Dutch as the Scandinavian will enjoy as long as possible overseas trade. What might hold the Nazi-Germans off entering the Netherlands as well as Scandinavia - and they DIDN'T invade Sweden during WWII - might well be the access to the industrial capacity of those nations to literally function as Germany's. Which of course would be attempted barred by the WAllies but with primary import of rawmaterials to Germany secondary export to the Netherlands and Scandinavia for processing to the prestage of weaponizing which could take place in Germany upon re-import would ease the strain on German industry which actually wasn't fully mobilized at this point. Which You all well are awar of. SO: Nazi-Germany will try get the minor neutrals supplying it with Agricultural as well as Industrial output to continue the war just as it will be dealing with Soviet Union, Fascist Italy, Francoist Spain, Salazarian Portugal (though he may know to guard his back regarding Britain) as well as the Balkans and Turkey. The Nazi's could be disregarding ideology IF it suited them as the Deportation of the Danish Jews showed in contrast to the rest of Occupied Europe. How that will influenze the Dutch European Position - I'd still venture a WWI like position and I don't think of German occupation as an automatic. Regarding the Dutch Overseas Position - THAT will be much dependant upon WAllied and US position vis-a-vis Japan. I'd still expect a Dutch continued sale of Oil as in regard to the European situation the NEI will need its Military strengthned without the possibility with the motherland being unable also in this position to move its produced Fighter Aircraft (Fokker D-XXI) to NEI and will for this use income to locally up-arm from USA. That of course will at some point put the Dutch and US at loggerheads with the Dutch complaining of not being able to make itself able to defend the NEI because the US and WAllies deny it the income to do so. A way out could be France buying the NEI Oil. When the situation in the Far East changes I don't know but as long as France is alive and stopping the Germans in Belgium Japan is not going to move on its possessions in FIC. Similarly I don't see the British "protecting" Dutch colonial possessions in the Caribbean - there's oil too and Britain would like access to it. My wiev is of course fogged as I've only barely had the Germans invade Belgium and Northern France and being held there with the WAllies doing better. Will see where it take me. |
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nomommsen
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Post by nomommsen on Nov 1, 2023 12:25:14 GMT
I somewhat doubt there could be considerable (or even any) jewish refugees fleeing Europe. In rather shorter time they would become a BIG problem for the Netherlands as well. Aside a growing food shortage for everyone (not helpd by some X00.000s refugees of rather urban than rural offspring) there were also antisemites in the Netherlands even before the war ...
It would be difficult and risky but some exodus should be possible. After all Britain managed to get trade through with Sweden and also moving people in and out of occupied Norway and France. With a neutral Netherlands it should be possible to have civilian a/c flying between it and Britain, albeit with some escorts possibly required from off the Dutch coastline if the will is there.
Getting trade through ... yes (as likely some british investors are involved) 'Some' people ... yes (if they are politically 'interesting' aka well connected to maybe be of use for some clandestine operations) Jews esp. in numbers considerable ... see my post above
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... what would mean japanese occupation of these islands ... ever heard: