What if MacArthur was killed in Korea after Inchon commenced, but before major Chinese offensive in
Oct 17, 2023 2:13:46 GMT
gillan1220 and Max Sinister like this
Post by raharris1973 on Oct 17, 2023 2:13:46 GMT
What if MacArthur was killed in Korea after Inchon commenced, but before major Chinese offensive in 1950?
There were at least two occasions in this timeframe when he was somewhat close to personal danger in Korea within the time constraints I've set, according to wiki:
Douglas MacArthur - Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org
"Visiting the battlefield on 17 September, MacArthur surveyed six T-34 tanks that had been knocked out by Marines, ignoring sniper fire around him, except to note that the North Korean marksmen were poorly trained."
"On 20 October MacArthur flew to the Sukchon-Sunchon area of North Korea, north of Pyongyang, to supervise and observe an airborne operation by the 187th Airborne Regimental Combat Team. This was the first of two airborne operations done by UN forces during the Korean War. MacArthur's unarmed airplane was subject to attack by enemy aircraft known to be based at Sinuiju."
Placing those non-incidents in the timeline of the war, 17 September was two days before the conclusion of the Inchon battle. 20 October was the day after UN capture of Pyongyang, and five days before the sharp Chinese 10-day "First Phase" *small* campaign that did not reveal full Chinese strength and failed to completely stop UN advances.
Oct 5- Nov 5 was that 10-day Chinese attack that was a sharp, nasty surprise, but which OTL the UN command misperceived as a small intervention force that was all the Chinese could and would throw in, letting them think they could continue to advance to finish off North Korea and start sending boys home by Christmas.
Nov 25-Dec 24 - was the truly massive and broad front Chinese Second Phase offensive which drove the UN forces entirely out of North Korea, to be followed at the opening of the new year by a Third Phase that pushed into South Korea once more and captured Seoul on 3 January, occupying it for 10 weeks before UN-ROK liberated the city again.
--So, MacArthur getting killed, and thus removed instantly from the command chain allows us to see what happens in his absence and what his immediate and medium term substitutes do on the battlefield first, and then in the medium term there are going to be clear political effects I will get to later.
One thing I would note, is there is no guarantee that all the US-UN advance stops the moment of MacArthur's death, or that any or all US-UN vs. China clashing would be averted. Per wiki again, regarding US political authorization of crossing the 38th parallel into North Korea.
On 11 September, Truman issued an order, NSC 81/1, to MacArthur and UN forces for an advance beyond the 38th parallel into North Korea. Truman, Secretary of State Dean Acheson, Secretary of Defense George Marshall, U.S. Ambassador to the UN Warren R. Austin, and the British and French governments all agreed on the decision to invade and occupy all of North Korea. MacArthur, busy with the Pusan Perimeter defense and the upcoming Inchon landings, had nothing to do with this decision.
Marshall ordered MacArthur on 30 September to feel "unhampered tactically and strategically to proceed north of 38th parallel." This ambiguity was finally resolved by the UN General Assembly greenlighting MacArthur to advance northward on 4 October with Resolution 376(V), which authorized him and UN forces to cross the 38th parallel and to unify all of Korea under the Republic of Korea. The Joint Chiefs of Staff on 7 October further clarified to MacArthur that the official mandate for UN forces was the unification of a democratic Korea.
On politics, I do not anticipate a toxic fallout between the succeeding commander and Truman, a dramatic firing, or any fired commander to get Congressional support for hearings on the war and war and Far East policy as a whole, which is huge for US politics. Truman should be under less political strain although he likely has a low political 'ceiling' by now, and any military setbacks or disappointments will not wear well. MacArthur himself will die with a more heroic reputation in the minds of historians, and not be seen by many as the madman who almost started WWIII. He will still justifiably have his critics for aspects of his WWII record and the bonus march, but the Japan occupation and Korean War, especially if it is both shortened and with an improved territorial result will be seen as decent capstones to his life. Lack of the the Truman-MacArthur struggle and firing may make later Generals and Admirals less timid in voicing concerns over administration war strategies.
So MacArthur, a man with many unlikeable and undesirable characteristics, and *super* unpopular on these forums and among folks in the genre, so we should have a chance for things to go much, much better than OTL, right? I've devised a scenario to get rid of him, but only after he's served his purpose of pushing through the brilliant operational insight of hitting the Norks at Inchon.
So I've given Dugout Doug's haters a chance to put up or shut up. Let's have at it, shall we?
There were at least two occasions in this timeframe when he was somewhat close to personal danger in Korea within the time constraints I've set, according to wiki:
Douglas MacArthur - Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org
"Visiting the battlefield on 17 September, MacArthur surveyed six T-34 tanks that had been knocked out by Marines, ignoring sniper fire around him, except to note that the North Korean marksmen were poorly trained."
"On 20 October MacArthur flew to the Sukchon-Sunchon area of North Korea, north of Pyongyang, to supervise and observe an airborne operation by the 187th Airborne Regimental Combat Team. This was the first of two airborne operations done by UN forces during the Korean War. MacArthur's unarmed airplane was subject to attack by enemy aircraft known to be based at Sinuiju."
Placing those non-incidents in the timeline of the war, 17 September was two days before the conclusion of the Inchon battle. 20 October was the day after UN capture of Pyongyang, and five days before the sharp Chinese 10-day "First Phase" *small* campaign that did not reveal full Chinese strength and failed to completely stop UN advances.
Oct 5- Nov 5 was that 10-day Chinese attack that was a sharp, nasty surprise, but which OTL the UN command misperceived as a small intervention force that was all the Chinese could and would throw in, letting them think they could continue to advance to finish off North Korea and start sending boys home by Christmas.
Nov 25-Dec 24 - was the truly massive and broad front Chinese Second Phase offensive which drove the UN forces entirely out of North Korea, to be followed at the opening of the new year by a Third Phase that pushed into South Korea once more and captured Seoul on 3 January, occupying it for 10 weeks before UN-ROK liberated the city again.
--So, MacArthur getting killed, and thus removed instantly from the command chain allows us to see what happens in his absence and what his immediate and medium term substitutes do on the battlefield first, and then in the medium term there are going to be clear political effects I will get to later.
One thing I would note, is there is no guarantee that all the US-UN advance stops the moment of MacArthur's death, or that any or all US-UN vs. China clashing would be averted. Per wiki again, regarding US political authorization of crossing the 38th parallel into North Korea.
On 11 September, Truman issued an order, NSC 81/1, to MacArthur and UN forces for an advance beyond the 38th parallel into North Korea. Truman, Secretary of State Dean Acheson, Secretary of Defense George Marshall, U.S. Ambassador to the UN Warren R. Austin, and the British and French governments all agreed on the decision to invade and occupy all of North Korea. MacArthur, busy with the Pusan Perimeter defense and the upcoming Inchon landings, had nothing to do with this decision.
Marshall ordered MacArthur on 30 September to feel "unhampered tactically and strategically to proceed north of 38th parallel." This ambiguity was finally resolved by the UN General Assembly greenlighting MacArthur to advance northward on 4 October with Resolution 376(V), which authorized him and UN forces to cross the 38th parallel and to unify all of Korea under the Republic of Korea. The Joint Chiefs of Staff on 7 October further clarified to MacArthur that the official mandate for UN forces was the unification of a democratic Korea.
On politics, I do not anticipate a toxic fallout between the succeeding commander and Truman, a dramatic firing, or any fired commander to get Congressional support for hearings on the war and war and Far East policy as a whole, which is huge for US politics. Truman should be under less political strain although he likely has a low political 'ceiling' by now, and any military setbacks or disappointments will not wear well. MacArthur himself will die with a more heroic reputation in the minds of historians, and not be seen by many as the madman who almost started WWIII. He will still justifiably have his critics for aspects of his WWII record and the bonus march, but the Japan occupation and Korean War, especially if it is both shortened and with an improved territorial result will be seen as decent capstones to his life. Lack of the the Truman-MacArthur struggle and firing may make later Generals and Admirals less timid in voicing concerns over administration war strategies.
So MacArthur, a man with many unlikeable and undesirable characteristics, and *super* unpopular on these forums and among folks in the genre, so we should have a chance for things to go much, much better than OTL, right? I've devised a scenario to get rid of him, but only after he's served his purpose of pushing through the brilliant operational insight of hitting the Norks at Inchon.
So I've given Dugout Doug's haters a chance to put up or shut up. Let's have at it, shall we?
