575
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Post by 575 on Dec 6, 2023 11:00:30 GMT
At the opening of talks the Finn Minister to Stockholm when presented with the Soviet demands reply that they have tried taking it themselves and failed. As such the Finns is unimpressed though is willing to an end of hostilities on the position of status quo ante.
Molotov had been instructed to end hostilities if only possible on status quo but began with the demand of November 1939 to which had been added all of Finn Karelia and the entirety of Karelian Istmus.
Negotiations dragged out with the Finns not caving in; in the end the Finns ended up accepting the pre-hostilities proposal except the lease of Hangö as a military base of the Sovietunion.
Informed of the successfull ending of negotiations the Swedish Premier Per Albin Hansson drew a sigh of relief; the Military Depots of Northern Sweden had been almost emptied. The Norrland Corps had had severe casualties but also gained valuable experience of modern war. The Swedish Pilots had made a mark upon the Soviet Airforce.
As a gesture to the Soviets the Norrland Corps was pulled out of Finland shortly following the signing the instrument of the Peace; to refit and rest. General Douglas was ordered to Stockholm for meeting Min. of Defence Sköld and PM Hansson. Fearing dismissal for pulling the Nation into war against orders General Douglas was surprised to be asked to sit and have a drink. PM Hansson informed General Douglas that he really ought to strip him of position and rank and dismiss him without pension. However in this time of war he was needed and told to get back to Norrland. The Airforce Commander would meet him later; General Douglas was to relate his experience of Airsupport of the Army troops to work out any needed training.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Dec 6, 2023 20:25:24 GMT
At the opening of talks the Finn Minister to Stockholm when presented with the Soviet demands reply that they have tried taking it themselves and failed. As such the Finns is unimpressed though is willing to an end of hostilities on the position of status quo ante. Molotov had been instructed to end hostilities if only possible on status quo but began with the demand of November 1939 to which had been added all of Finn Karelia and the entirety of Karelian Istmus. Negotiations dragged out with the Finns not caving in; in the end the Finns ended up accepting the pre-hostilities proposal except the lease of Hangö as a military base of the Sovietunion. Informed of the successfull ending of negotiations the Swedish Premier Per Albin Hansson drew a sigh of relief; the Military Depots of Northern Sweden had been almost emptied. The Norrland Corps had had severe casualties but also gained valuable experience of modern war. The Swedish Pilots had made a mark upon the Soviet Airforce. As a gesture to the Soviets the Norrland Corps was pulled out of Finland shortly following the signing the instrument of the Peace; to refit and rest. General Douglas was ordered to Stockholm for meeting Min. of Defence Sköld and PM Hansson. Fearing dismissal for pulling the Nation into war against orders General Douglas was surprised to be asked to sit and have a drink. PM Hansson informed General Douglas that he really ought to strip him of position and rank and dismiss him without pension. However in this time of war he was needed and told to get back to Norrland. The Airforce Commander would meet him later; General Douglas was to relate his experience of Airsupport of the Army troops to work out any needed training.
Well that went better than I expected. Thought Finland would have to concede some ground but got away with only the lease of Hango. Also Sweden has some battle experience, as to a greater degree did Finland and the USSR.
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575
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Post by 575 on Dec 7, 2023 10:07:21 GMT
At the opening of talks the Finn Minister to Stockholm when presented with the Soviet demands reply that they have tried taking it themselves and failed. As such the Finns is unimpressed though is willing to an end of hostilities on the position of status quo ante. Molotov had been instructed to end hostilities if only possible on status quo but began with the demand of November 1939 to which had been added all of Finn Karelia and the entirety of Karelian Istmus. Negotiations dragged out with the Finns not caving in; in the end the Finns ended up accepting the pre-hostilities proposal except the lease of Hangö as a military base of the Sovietunion. Informed of the successfull ending of negotiations the Swedish Premier Per Albin Hansson drew a sigh of relief; the Military Depots of Northern Sweden had been almost emptied. The Norrland Corps had had severe casualties but also gained valuable experience of modern war. The Swedish Pilots had made a mark upon the Soviet Airforce. As a gesture to the Soviets the Norrland Corps was pulled out of Finland shortly following the signing the instrument of the Peace; to refit and rest. General Douglas was ordered to Stockholm for meeting Min. of Defence Sköld and PM Hansson. Fearing dismissal for pulling the Nation into war against orders General Douglas was surprised to be asked to sit and have a drink. PM Hansson informed General Douglas that he really ought to strip him of position and rank and dismiss him without pension. However in this time of war he was needed and told to get back to Norrland. The Airforce Commander would meet him later; General Douglas was to relate his experience of Airsupport of the Army troops to work out any needed training.
Well that went better than I expected. Thought Finland would have to concede some ground but got away with only the lease of Hango. Also Sweden has some battle experience, as to a greater degree did Finland and the USSR.
I figured heavier Soviet losses and especially not breaking the Finn last line of defences on the Karelian Istmus would be the factor though the Pre-War terms offered by the Soviet Union entailed the short movement of the border on the Karelian Istmus:
the 23.10 Soviet-demand, islands in the Gulf of Finland:
Rybachi Peninsular in the Arctic - in Red:
In return of leasing Hangö the Finns would have been compensated with territory in East Karelia which of course is off ITTL. And thus no incentive of Finlands of retrieving land in a German war in the East except if Finland get a Fascist Government - don't expect that.
A much better outcome for Finland without the forced resettlement of Finn citizens from Karelia. The demands of the Soviet Union had varied a lot over time increasing and lessened. Marshall Mannerheim had actually argued for ceding the Gulf of Finland islands as these were indefensible.
Sweden got a taste of modern warfare but have to replenish which may be difficult though there is some port in North Norway with a heavy-duty railline leading to Sweden that might be an import point for Swedens - guess though Churchill will be too obstinate to realize that and carry out with some finesse so not to step upon the feet of small states. He would need some sizeable defeat to realize such.
Norway will be getting a much updated Airforce and Denmark will welcome home a small group of combat pilots who have learned modern Fighter-tactics the hard way. And bled - but still it will be an important addition to Danish defences.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Dec 7, 2023 19:11:57 GMT
Well that went better than I expected. Thought Finland would have to concede some ground but got away with only the lease of Hango. Also Sweden has some battle experience, as to a greater degree did Finland and the USSR.
I figured heavier Soviet losses and especially not breaking the Finn last line of defences on the Karelian Istmus would be the factor though the Pre-War terms offered by the Soviet Union entailed the short movement of the border on the Karelian Istmus:
the 23.10 Soviet-demand, islands in the Gulf of Finland:
Rybachi Peninsular in the Arctic - in Red:
In return of leasing Hangö the Finns would have been compensated with territory in East Karelia which of course is off ITTL. And thus no incentive of Finlands of retrieving land in a German war in the East except if Finland get a Fascist Government - don't expect that.
A much better outcome for Finland without the forced resettlement of Finn citizens from Karelia. The demands of the Soviet Union had varied a lot over time increasing and lessened. Marshall Mannerheim had actually argued for ceding the Gulf of Finland islands as these were indefensible.
Sweden got a taste of modern warfare but have to replenish which may be difficult though there is some port in North Norway with a heavy-duty railline leading to Sweden that might be an import point for Swedens - guess though Churchill will be too obstinate to realize that and carry out with some finesse so not to step upon the feet of small states. He would need some sizeable defeat to realize such.
Norway will be getting a much updated Airforce and Denmark will welcome home a small group of combat pilots who have learned modern Fighter-tactics the hard way. And bled - but still it will be an important addition to Danish defences.
Don't forget that he's only First Lord of the Admiralty at this point. He has a lot of history, both good and bad so while he's likely to be a contender for PM when Chamberlain is forced to step down because of his fatal cancer its by no means certain he will win that fight.
Sweden will want to replace losses and Britain will want to get access to some Swedish technology and raw materials so its not impossible that a favourable agreement could be made. With Britain and France so heavily involved in directly fighting the Germans their not going to have time or resources to spare for adventures in Scandinavia, especially if that would also enable the Germans to get a foot into the door in Scandinavia without needing to fight the locals. As such the best way to get materials from Scandinavia and do what we could to deny access to such resources to Germany.would be by co-operation.
I doubt that Germany is going to get a chance to attack the Soviets here. Depending on how things go you might see Stalin trying another attack on Finland a couple of years down the line if the main war is still ongoing and all three powers [Germany, Britain & France] are preoccupied by that and Stalin thinks that the Red Army has been upgraded enough that Finland can be crushed even with support from other Scandinavian powers. I suspect that the main European war will be over by then so this could be unlikely but it would depend on the circumstances.
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575
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Post by 575 on Dec 7, 2023 19:58:33 GMT
I figured heavier Soviet losses and especially not breaking the Finn last line of defences on the Karelian Istmus would be the factor though the Pre-War terms offered by the Soviet Union entailed the short movement of the border on the Karelian Istmus:
the 23.10 Soviet-demand, islands in the Gulf of Finland:
Rybachi Peninsular in the Arctic - in Red:
In return of leasing Hangö the Finns would have been compensated with territory in East Karelia which of course is off ITTL. And thus no incentive of Finlands of retrieving land in a German war in the East except if Finland get a Fascist Government - don't expect that.
A much better outcome for Finland without the forced resettlement of Finn citizens from Karelia. The demands of the Soviet Union had varied a lot over time increasing and lessened. Marshall Mannerheim had actually argued for ceding the Gulf of Finland islands as these were indefensible.
Sweden got a taste of modern warfare but have to replenish which may be difficult though there is some port in North Norway with a heavy-duty railline leading to Sweden that might be an import point for Swedens - guess though Churchill will be too obstinate to realize that and carry out with some finesse so not to step upon the feet of small states. He would need some sizeable defeat to realize such.
Norway will be getting a much updated Airforce and Denmark will welcome home a small group of combat pilots who have learned modern Fighter-tactics the hard way. And bled - but still it will be an important addition to Danish defences.
Don't forget that he's only First Lord of the Admiralty at this point. He has a lot of history, both good and bad so while he's likely to be a contender for PM when Chamberlain is forced to step down because of his fatal cancer its by no means certain he will win that fight.
Sweden will want to replace losses and Britain will want to get access to some Swedish technology and raw materials so its not impossible that a favourable agreement could be made. With Britain and France so heavily involved in directly fighting the Germans their not going to have time or resources to spare for adventures in Scandinavia, especially if that would also enable the Germans to get a foot into the door in Scandinavia without needing to fight the locals. As such the best way to get materials from Scandinavia and do what we could to deny access to such resources to Germany.would be by co-operation.
I doubt that Germany is going to get a chance to attack the Soviets here. Depending on how things go you might see Stalin trying another attack on Finland a couple of years down the line if the main war is still ongoing and all three powers [Germany, Britain & France] are preoccupied by that and Stalin thinks that the Red Army has been upgraded enough that Finland can be crushed even with support from other Scandinavian powers. I suspect that the main European war will be over by then so this could be unlikely but it would depend on the circumstances.
As Sweden and Finland step up arms imports possibly via Narvik port the RN might want to keep a closer look on traffic in the adjoining waters - as during WWI in Convoys from Britain to Norway as found here there will be regular traffic. Very interesting - wasn't aware of convoys to Scandinavia prior to 9 April 1940.
So British convoys with lots of Destroyers and the occasional Cruiser won't scare off the KM - phew! British industry will get its engine ball-bearings.
I am tinkering with having Stalin occupy the parts of Bessarabia as OTL this time Germany is way worse state of even coughing at Stalin. So that or Finland. Perhaps. Might be other golden sources out there to stumble upon. Will need more time for this.  |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Dec 7, 2023 23:46:35 GMT
Don't forget that he's only First Lord of the Admiralty at this point. He has a lot of history, both good and bad so while he's likely to be a contender for PM when Chamberlain is forced to step down because of his fatal cancer its by no means certain he will win that fight.
Sweden will want to replace losses and Britain will want to get access to some Swedish technology and raw materials so its not impossible that a favourable agreement could be made. With Britain and France so heavily involved in directly fighting the Germans their not going to have time or resources to spare for adventures in Scandinavia, especially if that would also enable the Germans to get a foot into the door in Scandinavia without needing to fight the locals. As such the best way to get materials from Scandinavia and do what we could to deny access to such resources to Germany.would be by co-operation.
I doubt that Germany is going to get a chance to attack the Soviets here. Depending on how things go you might see Stalin trying another attack on Finland a couple of years down the line if the main war is still ongoing and all three powers [Germany, Britain & France] are preoccupied by that and Stalin thinks that the Red Army has been upgraded enough that Finland can be crushed even with support from other Scandinavian powers. I suspect that the main European war will be over by then so this could be unlikely but it would depend on the circumstances.
As Sweden and Finland step up arms imports possibly via Narvik port the RN might want to keep a closer look on traffic in the adjoining waters - as during WWI in Convoys from Britain to Norway as found here there will be regular traffic. Very interesting - wasn't aware of convoys to Scandinavia prior to 9 April 1940.
So British convoys with lots of Destroyers and the occasional Cruiser won't scare off the KM - phew! British industry will get its engine ball-bearings.
I am tinkering with having Stalin occupy the parts of Bessarabia as OTL this time Germany is way worse state of even coughing at Stalin. So that or Finland. Perhaps. Might be other golden sources out there to stumble upon. Will need more time for this.
I could see Stalin nibbling at Romania as, as you say, Germany isn't in any position to object too strongly. Berlin would probably seek to have Romania submit on the question of Bessarabia rather than risk a war that might put Polesti under Soviet control. Although it may be that this would be a bluff for the moment given the abysmal performance of the Red Army in the Winter war. I.e. that if Romania stands firm Stalin won't pressure the issue.
Possibly his 1st step is probably to do what he did in spring 1940 OTL, i.e. occupation of the Baltic states. His dominance of them is agreed in the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact so Hitler has no basis for argument. Plus their a lot weaker than Romania in terms of population and geographical position.
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575
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Post by 575 on Dec 8, 2023 9:38:37 GMT
Having looked at the Convoy schemes its apparent that Denmark had its majority of shipping going non-convoy across the North Sea as I wrote in Denmark ISOT 1940 to 1864 because of having trade agreements with both the British and Germans.
Though I could well see the KM soon changing that as the war in Belgium was still most of a Winter stalemate. Also trans-Atlantic shipping will be more attacked of course possibly leading to an early entry of US into the War. Have to do some counting of operational U-boote.
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575
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Post by 575 on Dec 8, 2023 11:37:30 GMT
Did do a little numbers chrunching -
German Operational Submarines/U-boote by 1 September 1939:
Coastal Subs Type IIA,B,C 30, Ocean going Type VIIA,B 19, big ones Type I 2. Total: 51 - operational 46.
Subs builds September 1939 - December 1940:
Coastal Subs Type IIB 2, Ocean going Type IID 14, Type VIIB 7, Type VIIC 3, big ones Type IXA,B 15. Total: 41
Losses of all types 1939-40: 23
Loss by Type: IIA,B,C 8 in the North Sea/Channel, VIIA 4, VIIB 5, I 1, IXA,B 5 outside the North Sea - Atlantic, Norwegian Coast.
Even if the Coastal Subs were training units for lack of larger ones they were pressed into combat during the period (and later).
The Germans had their own Torpedo troubles initially in the war.
If the Germans would be able to keep a third of the Oceangoing Submarines on Patrol that would make for a max. of 7 thus no real increase in the threath though in the North Sea things may change if the Germans go all out for the majority Neutral Convoys from Britain to Norway.
Actually the Norwegian Campaign took the German Submarines off hunting Merchantmen to support the operations. Though with torpedotroubles it will not change much in the overall picture.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Dec 8, 2023 12:41:23 GMT
I doubt that there would be an earlier US entry into the war as the allies position is so much stronger than OTL and especially probably at sea. The MN is still active on the allied side with probably elements of the Dutch and Belgium navy - although in this scenario the allies aren't going to receive the large Norwegian merchant fleet without the German invasion of that country, nor control of Iceland or the Faeroe Is. Furthermore Italy is likely to stay neutral which removes that theatre - albeit both Britain and France would keep forces in the Med just in case and if Italy at some point goes adventuring in say Greece or Yugoslavia that could increase. Also without bases in western France and Norway Germany has much greater problems in projecting power beyond the North Sea, in terms of subs, surface units and long ranged air.
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575
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Post by 575 on Dec 8, 2023 13:14:04 GMT
I doubt that there would be an earlier US entry into the war as the allies position is so much stronger than OTL and especially probably at sea. The MN is still active on the allied side with probably elements of the Dutch and Belgium navy - although in this scenario the allies aren't going to receive the large Norwegian merchant fleet without the German invasion of that country, nor control of Iceland or the Faeroe Is. Furthermore Italy is likely to stay neutral which removes that theatre - albeit both Britain and France would keep forces in the Med just in case and if Italy at some point goes adventuring in say Greece or Yugoslavia that could increase. Also without bases in western France and Norway Germany has much greater problems in projecting power beyond the North Sea, in terms of subs, surface units and long ranged air. You're quite right I just let myself be carried away before looking up the Submarine no.s and re-think the situation. |
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575
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Post by 575 on Dec 8, 2023 14:03:19 GMT
In the time an odd occurence happened in Norway on 4 November 1939 where a package had been left outside the British Embassy at Oslo. The packade included information on German scientific advances in fields like Radar but also estimates on warproduction.
The military estimates were not reliable even at the time as the number of German Aircraft and Tanks encountered during the fighting in Belgium had proved these to be way above real figures.
The parts on Radar and weapons developments were quite interesting and handed to the various departments engaged in like developments.
Post war it was discovered that the various papers had been written and delivered by German physicist Hans Ferdinand Mayer.
Mayer wasn't the only one trying to aid the WAllies to bring down the Nazi-regime. Or had he been used to try instill fear in the WAllies? Sometimes deceptive intelligence would become deceptive to the decievers themselves!
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Dec 8, 2023 16:30:38 GMT
I doubt that there would be an earlier US entry into the war as the allies position is so much stronger than OTL and especially probably at sea. The MN is still active on the allied side with probably elements of the Dutch and Belgium navy - although in this scenario the allies aren't going to receive the large Norwegian merchant fleet without the German invasion of that country, nor control of Iceland or the Faeroe Is. Furthermore Italy is likely to stay neutral which removes that theatre - albeit both Britain and France would keep forces in the Med just in case and if Italy at some point goes adventuring in say Greece or Yugoslavia that could increase. Also without bases in western France and Norway Germany has much greater problems in projecting power beyond the North Sea, in terms of subs, surface units and long ranged air. You're quite right I just let myself be carried away before looking up the Submarine no.s and re-think the situation.
Back home as helping out a mate took longer than I expected. The other thing is that OTL the US was only willing to go to fiscal aid, i.e. LL when Britain was fiscally exhausted - albeit there was the destroyers for base exchange when Britain was desperate after the fall of France and Italy joining the war. I would expect that the US would similarly only extend such aid when the allies were similarly exhausted. Which could be later because they have French, Belgium and Dutch resources as well as those available to Britain, or possibly sooner because of the costs of fighting a major war in western Europe probably at a high level. I would suspect it would be somewhat latter, but hopefully the war would be as good as won by then. The US only actually joined the war directly after the Japanese attack was followed by a German dow and the latter isn't likely to occur here so suspect that it won't play a part in a European war - at least unless its a case of a drained western allies being unable having defeated the Nazis and reeling under a Soviet attack.
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Post by Max Sinister on Dec 9, 2023 13:09:40 GMT
As Sweden and Finland step up arms imports possibly via Narvik port the RN might want to keep a closer look on traffic in the adjoining waters - as during WWI in Convoys from Britain to Norway as found here there will be regular traffic. Very interesting - wasn't aware of convoys to Scandinavia prior to 9 April 1940.
So British convoys with lots of Destroyers and the occasional Cruiser won't scare off the KM - phew! British industry will get its engine ball-bearings.
I am tinkering with having Stalin occupy the parts of Bessarabia as OTL this time Germany is way worse state of even coughing at Stalin. So that or Finland. Perhaps. Might be other golden sources out there to stumble upon. Will need more time for this.
I could see Stalin nibbling at Romania as, as you say, Germany isn't in any position to object too strongly. Berlin would probably seek to have Romania submit on the question of Bessarabia rather than risk a war that might put Polesti under Soviet control. AFAIK Stalin took Bessarabia as a reaction to the German victory in the west. Wanted to gain something as well.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Dec 10, 2023 0:11:21 GMT
I could see Stalin nibbling at Romania as, as you say, Germany isn't in any position to object too strongly. Berlin would probably seek to have Romania submit on the question of Bessarabia rather than risk a war that might put Polesti under Soviet control. AFAIK Stalin took Bessarabia as a reaction to the German victory in the west. Wanted to gain something as well.
Ah I could be wrong then. Thought it was part of the M-R deal. Would it be as much Germany's victory in the west as having a share of the carving out of the disputed areas of Romania when Hungary and Bulgaria also grabbed chunks? |
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575
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Post by 575 on Dec 10, 2023 8:54:55 GMT
I always understood and have always read that Soviet occupation of Bessarabia and Northern Bukovina was allowed by the Ribbentrop-Molotov Pact of 1939 - textThis TL will adhere to that assumption. |
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