575
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Post by 575 on Mar 7, 2024 16:56:11 GMT
Mussolini and Hitler had met at the Brenner Pass on 18 March 1940 during which meeting Mussolini had promised to march along Hitler when time was due. With the set-backs in Belgium and WAllied airattacks on German Industry and Ports Hitler remind Mussolini of this which Mussolini doesn't answer. Also Spanish Dictator Franco decline any talks of participation in the War on the side of Germany – a message already having been delivered to Quay d'Orsy during Winter when the German attack had been stopped in Belgium which had relieved the French of watching the Spanish border with large numbers of troops.
The big question here might be does Mussolini simply hunker down or possibly think to play in the Balkans while the allies are busy with Germany? If he tries a move against Greece or Yugoslavia what is the response of the western powers - intervene or decide that must turn a blind eye while Hitler ties up so many resources. Also without a pro-Italian Germany dominating the region what do other Balkan powers do? Hungary or possibly Bulgaria might support such an Italian move as they want a share of the spoils - but only if their certain of an Italian victory so possibly not immediately and an Hungarian move could prompt opposition from Romania as well. That could get very messy.
Regarding Musso he didn't declare war till 10 June 1940 when the French line on the Somme had been broken and French Government abandoned Paris thus I don't see him being any enthusiastic with the Germans still tied down in Belgium. The Balkans may be a possible but he didn't commit to that untill 10 August 1940. Regarding the political situation in the Balkans and other parts of Europe the next post is about this. The Hungarians waited for Stalins move on Bessarabia before going tough on Romania - here the situation is quite different:
*****
Stalin was still sitting tight observing the situation in the West. Pressure had been put on the Finn's since the end of the Winter War though Stalin well knew a second go wasn't in the cards. Recently Finland had benefitted from the French sell-out of Morane fighters to rebuild its Airforce which also had received more Italian aircraft usually transported from Italian ports on British Merchantmen and unloaded in Narvik to reach Finland by railway. Mussolini had used this traffic in showing Hitler that he was still a player – an independent one.
Stalin also noticed this and held back on occupation of the Baltic States as well as making a move on Bessarabia.
Instead Stalin sent Zhukov back to the Far East to rebuild whats needed facing the Fascist Japanese Imperialist's.
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575
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Post by 575 on Mar 7, 2024 16:57:00 GMT
A Japanese visit to Europe
Japan had been worried by the developments in Europe and its Foreign Minister had been sent on a journey to Europe to assert the situation himself the NKVD operative Richard Sorge had messaged his superiors. This message had annoyed Stalin a lot to the level of paranoia regarding the Far East. He needed to give more military aid to China though the bourgeois Chang-Kai-shek was an abomination he at least fought the Japanese. That peasant scoolteacher Mao was a fool running around the interior to evade Chang-Kai-shek's troops.
Clearly the Japanese was undecided of where to put the main effort. Stalins minions had tried to get the Western Powers to block oil sales from USA and NEI to Japan but to no real effort. NEI was too dependant upon WAllied good-will and USA mattered too little to the Japanese at the moment though the past two years of Japanese warfare in China had angered the US.
Returning from Europe by late July 1940 the Japanese Foreing Minister informed the Japanese Government of the situation there. Germany was at a stalemate with the Western Powers – most interestingly the Western Powers had defeated the German Navy which had freed up the Battlefleets of Britain to be available for World wide operations while the French Navy was monitoring the Italian Navy.
The new French Battleship Richelieu was commissioned during the Foreign Ministers visit to Europe and work proceeding on fitting out the second ship of the class Jean Bart that had been launched on 6 March 1940 and the third ship the Clemenceau that had had the keel laid on 17 January 1939. The French build of the Joffre class aircraft carriers much to the interest of the Japanese Navy and no less than proceedings on the Battleships was going ahead more slowly the lead ship Joffre still essentially only a hull. The second ship hadn't even been laid down.
The RN having lost a couple of old Carriers during the opening days of war had preserved those so still being a force in being.
The German carrier Graf Zeppelin was still officially building but the Germans hadn't let the Foreign Minister visit the shipyard where it was being fitted out.
Overall the Naval situation in Europe was hardly to the benefit of Japan's.
Regarding the overall political situation the Netherlands was often overflown by the billingerent powers airforces which might be taken for at sign of weakness however during the visit of the Foreign Minister to the Hague the new Fokker G-1 seemed to be the Dutch Fighter aircraft; apparently the Fokker D-XXI's had been shipped off to NEI in understanding with the WAllies. Due to the blockade Dutch warships hadn't been allowed to leave Dutch waters.
The Soviets hadn't yet incorporated the Baltic States which it seemed they had gotten according to the Ribbentrop-Molotov Pact; also the much coveted Bessarabia lost since WWI hadn't been seized by the Soviets. Finland had still deliveries of French and Italian Fighter aircraft to rebuild its airforce. All in all it seemed the Soviets were apprehensive regarding the intentions of the WAllies.
It being well known that Winston Churchill the First Lord of the Admiralty – at which the Adm. Yamamoto nodded – had been a staunch adversary of anything communist since the formation of the Soviet Union Stalin was surely biding his time for fear of WAllied repraisal who viewed the Ribbentrop-Molotov Pact a Military Alliance and thus the Soviet Union the ally of Nazi-Germany.
The Fascist leaders of Italy and Spain certainly were biding time; Mussolini adverse to Stalin even if he had traded warships for raw materials during the 1920's and France an ardent adversary of Socialism/Communism too as evidenced during the Spanish Civil War. Though Italy being in lack of coal and oil and Spain in lack of just about everything both had abstained from following the German lead.
It would be adviceable to observe the situation in regards to British and French holdings in the Far East. The RN would be able to deploy a sizeable force of Battleships and Aircraft Carriers East with probably a token French commitment.
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575
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Post by 575 on Mar 7, 2024 17:12:43 GMT
My notes for the past few post's: 18 March 1940 Hitler meet Mussolini at Brenner Pass 10 June 1940 French Government leaves Paris12 June 1940 Franco declare Spain non-participant 15 June 1940 Soviet occupation of Lithuania 17 June 1940 Soviet occupation of Estonia and Latvia 25 June 1940 French – German Armistige26-28 June 1940 Soviet occupies Bessarabia following Soviet demand 18 July 1940 Britain closes the Burma road due to Japanese pressure 11 August 1940 Italian press attacks on Greece 23 August 1940 Romanian – Hungary crisis 30 August 1940 German – Italian pressure on Romania to cede territory to Hungary 4 September 1940 Antonescu Romanian dictator 6 September 1940 King Carol of Romania abdicate 23 September 1940 Japanese bases in northern FIC 27 September 1940 Signing of the Tri-partite Pact 1 October 1940 Finn – German trade agreement to lessen Soviet pressure on Finland 28 October 1940 Italian attack on Greece German – Spanish talks for attack on Gibraltar: 17 Sept, 23 Oct, 7 Dec 1940 1 January 1941 Yamamoto draws up the plan for attack on USA at Pearl Harbour 11 March 1941 Thai – French FIC conflict 12 March 1941 Japanese FM to Europe for an impression of the situation 5 April 1941 Soviet – Yugoslav non-aggression and friendship treaty 13 April 1941 Soviet – Japanese neutrality treaty. 2 July 1941 Japanese decision to go Pacific The defeat and fall of France was highly important in setting off other events - yes I timed the Japanese FM visit to Europe differently but its another situation.  |
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575
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Post by 575 on Mar 8, 2024 11:52:48 GMT
 A cliff-hanger: The Japanese political situation was difficult – the Army being pro-German was in internal debate on the findings of the Foreign Minister in Europe but also appreciating the Navy stance regarding the British and USA in the present situation. PM Yonai had been pressured by the Army Minister Shonroku Hata as long as the Germans were in the ascent but the stopping by the WAllies of the German offensive in the West during October/November 1939 and recurring stopping of the May 1940 offensive had weakened the Army position within Cabinet. The continued non-bellingerence of Mussolini's Italy also confused the Army. There had been discussions of reopening the Soviet Conflict of 1939 to rout the Soviets out of Asia and thus secure the Japanese holding of Manchukou with the vital coal and coal-liquifaction plant to supply the oil import should the USA embargo that. On the other hand the Dutch due to the situation of the Home Land being politically isolated and thus unable to reinforce its Navy in NEI though aircraft had been received from Holland kept selling oil to Japan which had seen part of the Japanese Navy oil tankers rerouted from the trans-Pacific route to NEI. The Navy Party led by PM Yonai and FM Arita was against antagonizing the Naval Powers Britain and USA but still proponents of the Greater East Asian Co-Posperity Sphere which didn't make life too difficult for the Army in China. Also the Army wasn't counter to a re-run of the Soviet Conflict which it had endorsed since the days of 1918. Such resuming would most probably earn the consent of the British and French Alliance as it would hamper the German imports from the Soviet Union and thus would observe a double purpose. It might serve to remove some of the especially French animosity towards Japan for having occupied Hainan East of FIC and actually play into the hand of the Japanese too as the USA Isolationist's might endorse it and counter the USA President Roosevelt in his effort to isolate Japan politically. The German ending trade with the Chinese and the Military Mission training the Chinese Army had shown this to be in bad shape – not universally but worse than prior to 1937. It had become a more manageble opponent though the Soviets was still supplying arms and instructors though this was deemed inferior to the German aid. Re-opening the Soviet conflict would surely end the support of China's. The other end of the stick would of course be German reactions if its supply from Soviet Union be cut off. Would it outweigh the positives? Adding to the Japanese outcome of discussions were the US Presidential election of 1940; the popularity of President Roosevelt was somewhat in decline and the Isolationist Republicans gained traction as the War with Nazi-Germany had been successfully contained by the British and French in Belgium. Roosevelt had declined on the subject of going for a third term but encouraging Democrats to enter the race leaving the elections to Democratic vice-President Garner, Foreign Secretary Cordell Hull and James A. Farley vs. Republican Insolationists Taft, Vandenberg and Dewey. Themselves fighting their own interventionist group headed by Wendell Wilkie. *****
Just came to think of the Presidential Elections of 1940.
American input would be very much appreciated - I guess a Republican swing could be in the cards? Would a GOP President turn down rhetoric on Japan regarding its Chinese War if it turns on the Soviets?
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Mar 8, 2024 14:44:37 GMT
A cliff-hanger: The Japanese political situation was difficult – the Army being pro-German was in internal debate on the findings of the Foreign Minister in Europe but also appreciating the Navy stance regarding the British and USA in the present situation. PM Yonai had been pressured by the Army Minister Shonroku Hata as long as the Germans were in the ascent but the stopping by the WAllies of the German offensive in the West during October/November 1939 and recurring stopping of the May 1940 offensive had weakened the Army position within Cabinet. The continued non-bellingerence of Mussolini's Italy also confused the Army. There had been discussions of reopening the Soviet Conflict of 1939 to rout the Soviets out of Asia and thus secure the Japanese holding of Manchukou with the vital coal and coal-liquifaction plant to supply the oil import should the USA embargo that. On the other hand the Dutch due to the situation of the Home Land being politically isolated and thus unable to reinforce its Navy in NEI though aircraft had been received from Holland kept selling oil to Japan which had seen part of the Japanese Navy oil tankers rerouted from the trans-Pacific route to NEI. The Navy Party led by PM Yonai and FM Arita was against antagonizing the Naval Powers Britain and USA but still proponents of the Greater East Asian Co-Posperity Sphere which didn't make life too difficult for the Army in China. Also the Army wasn't counter to a re-run of the Soviet Conflict which it had endorsed since the days of 1918. Such resuming would most probably earn the consent of the British and French Alliance as it would hamper the German imports from the Soviet Union and thus would observe a double purpose. It might serve to remove some of the especially French animosity towards Japan for having occupied Hainan East of FIC and actually play into the hand of the Japanese too as the USA Isolationist's might endorse it and counter the USA President Roosevelt in his effort to isolate Japan politically. The German ending trade with the Chinese and the Military Mission training the Chinese Army had shown this to be in bad shape – not universally but worse than prior to 1937. It had become a more manageble opponent though the Soviets was still supplying arms and instructors though this was deemed inferior to the German aid. Re-opening the Soviet conflict would surely end the support of China's. The other end of the stick would of course be German reactions if its supply from Soviet Union be cut off. Would it outweigh the positives? Adding to the Japanese outcome of discussions were the US Presidential election of 1940; the popularity of President Roosevelt was somewhat in decline and the Isolationist Republicans gained traction as the War with Nazi-Germany had been successfully contained by the British and French in Belgium. Roosevelt had declined on the subject of going for a third term but encouraging Democrats to enter the race leaving the elections to Democratic vice-President Garner, Foreign Secretary Cordell Hull and James A. Farley vs. Republican Insolationists Taft, Vandenberg and Dewey. Themselves fighting their own interventionist group headed by Wendell Wilkie. *****
Just came to think of the Presidential Elections of 1940.
American input would be very much appreciated - I guess a Republican swing could be in the cards? Would a GOP President turn down rhetoric on Japan regarding its Chinese War if it turns on the Soviets?
a) Just to clarify please. Is that what would happen or what the Japanese leadership think/hope would happen? Rather suspect the latter. I'm not saying that the Allies would openly condemn such actions but while they would be quietly happy that two potential threats were nullifying each other its unlikely to win Japan much sympathy from the west. Also doubtful that it would be a good idea for Japan. A USSR not facing a massive invasion from the west isn't going to be easy for Japan to handle, especially since they can't decisively defeat it and since it would be a predominantly army task its going to over-strain the Japanese army already tied down in China. Also while the Dutch and the western allies may be fairly mute about Japanese actions in China its by no means certain the US will be possibly regardless of who wins the next election. [As I understand it a lot of isolationism feeling was directed against any involvement in another war in Europe and there was less reluctance by them to a clash with Japan].
If such an action did disrupt German supplies from the Soviets, which I don't think it would noticeably then there's little Germany could do about it.
b) Rather surprised that Roosevelt is standing down although I assume that without a massive crisis in Europe he probably decides that its better for the Democrats if he doesn't breach the two terms limit tradition. I would expect the Democrats to win again given the success of the party in the last 8 years and also probably a confident US would be fairly happy with both a naval build-up at least and continuing pressure on Japan to exit China - at least south of Manchuria.
Anyway, for what its worth my initial thoughts.
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575
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Post by 575 on Mar 8, 2024 17:33:59 GMT
A cliff-hanger: The Japanese political situation was difficult – the Army being pro-German was in internal debate on the findings of the Foreign Minister in Europe but also appreciating the Navy stance regarding the British and USA in the present situation. PM Yonai had been pressured by the Army Minister Shonroku Hata as long as the Germans were in the ascent but the stopping by the WAllies of the German offensive in the West during October/November 1939 and recurring stopping of the May 1940 offensive had weakened the Army position within Cabinet. The continued non-bellingerence of Mussolini's Italy also confused the Army. There had been discussions of reopening the Soviet Conflict of 1939 to rout the Soviets out of Asia and thus secure the Japanese holding of Manchukou with the vital coal and coal-liquifaction plant to supply the oil import should the USA embargo that. On the other hand the Dutch due to the situation of the Home Land being politically isolated and thus unable to reinforce its Navy in NEI though aircraft had been received from Holland kept selling oil to Japan which had seen part of the Japanese Navy oil tankers rerouted from the trans-Pacific route to NEI. The Navy Party led by PM Yonai and FM Arita was against antagonizing the Naval Powers Britain and USA but still proponents of the Greater East Asian Co-Posperity Sphere which didn't make life too difficult for the Army in China. Also the Army wasn't counter to a re-run of the Soviet Conflict which it had endorsed since the days of 1918. Such resuming would most probably earn the consent of the British and French Alliance as it would hamper the German imports from the Soviet Union and thus would observe a double purpose. It might serve to remove some of the especially French animosity towards Japan for having occupied Hainan East of FIC and actually play into the hand of the Japanese too as the USA Isolationist's might endorse it and counter the USA President Roosevelt in his effort to isolate Japan politically. The German ending trade with the Chinese and the Military Mission training the Chinese Army had shown this to be in bad shape – not universally but worse than prior to 1937. It had become a more manageble opponent though the Soviets was still supplying arms and instructors though this was deemed inferior to the German aid. Re-opening the Soviet conflict would surely end the support of China's. The other end of the stick would of course be German reactions if its supply from Soviet Union be cut off. Would it outweigh the positives? Adding to the Japanese outcome of discussions were the US Presidential election of 1940; the popularity of President Roosevelt was somewhat in decline and the Isolationist Republicans gained traction as the War with Nazi-Germany had been successfully contained by the British and French in Belgium. Roosevelt had declined on the subject of going for a third term but encouraging Democrats to enter the race leaving the elections to Democratic vice-President Garner, Foreign Secretary Cordell Hull and James A. Farley vs. Republican Insolationists Taft, Vandenberg and Dewey. Themselves fighting their own interventionist group headed by Wendell Wilkie. *****
Just came to think of the Presidential Elections of 1940.
American input would be very much appreciated - I guess a Republican swing could be in the cards? Would a GOP President turn down rhetoric on Japan regarding its Chinese War if it turns on the Soviets?
a) Just to clarify please. Is that what would happen or what the Japanese leadership think/hope would happen? Rather suspect the latter. I'm not saying that the Allies would openly condemn such actions but while they would be quietly happy that two potential threats were nullifying each other its unlikely to win Japan much sympathy from the west. Also doubtful that it would be a good idea for Japan. A USSR not facing a massive invasion from the west isn't going to be easy for Japan to handle, especially since they can't decisively defeat it and since it would be a predominantly army task its going to over-strain the Japanese army already tied down in China. Also while the Dutch and the western allies may be fairly mute about Japanese actions in China its by no means certain the US will be possibly regardless of who wins the next election. [As I understand it a lot of isolationism feeling was directed against any involvement in another war in Europe and there was less reluctance by them to a clash with Japan].
If such an action did disrupt German supplies from the Soviets, which I don't think it would noticeably then there's little Germany could do about it.
b) Rather surprised that Roosevelt is standing down although I assume that without a massive crisis in Europe he probably decides that its better for the Democrats if he doesn't breach the two terms limit tradition. I would expect the Democrats to win again given the success of the party in the last 8 years and also probably a confident US would be fairly happy with both a naval build-up at least and continuing pressure on Japan to exit China - at least south of Manchuria.
Anyway, for what its worth my initial thoughts.
stevep, thanks for the input. 
a) You suspect what the Japanese leadership think. Touché. There was some quite crucial imports to Germany via Soviet Union - cotton and rubber! These may be upset if the Japanese attack the Soviets; however such have ways of finding other ways to the recipient I'm quite aware of. Though it will still upset German supply rubber mainly so. And no there's not much Germany can do about it.
b) With what I looked up it seemed a possible but I'm not that much into US history during pre-/early WWII hence my question. The Republicans seemed to have thought that might be a time for undoing the Democrats from power and with possibly predominantly internal affairs (no not those) political such things do at times go oddly.
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575
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Post by 575 on Mar 10, 2024 9:17:48 GMT
Had a look at Congress 1940 - there was some elections. However in light of the situation ITTL in regard to OTL would Americans wiev the War in Europe as the usual European struggle of the Great Powers and thus make a decline for intervention? Not a landslide perhaps a lesser support of FDR if he runs?
Really it isn't crucial to the TL as such but it may have some political repercussions according to developments in the Far East.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Mar 10, 2024 17:40:16 GMT
Had a look at Congress 1940 - there was some elections. However in light of the situation ITTL in regard to OTL would Americans wiev the War in Europe as the usual European struggle of the Great Powers and thus make a decline for intervention? Not a landslide perhaps a lesser support of FDR if he runs?
Really it isn't crucial to the TL as such but it may have some political repercussions according to developments in the Far East.
I would say the Democratic dominance would decline somewhat whether FDR stood for a 3rd term or not but that they would still be the dominant power. It might be that the Republicans might challenge for power in one of the houses.
Definitely going to be less interest in the war in the US and likely the very limited trade interaction with the allies of OTL. As I said I think there is going to be some change as a result to events in the east. That the military build-up would be somewhat less and there's not likely to be conscription but that the naval and at least some of the air build up will still occur. Both because the US will want to react to naval building in Europe, especially the British programme and also that the Japanese challenge in the Pacific will be seen as more serious with Britain and France restricted in their position due to their commitments in Europe.
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575
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Post by 575 on Mar 11, 2024 5:58:54 GMT
A major concern of both Heer and Luftwaffe was the ever so slowly dwindling supply of rubber coming the near only way possible – through the Soviet Union along the Trans-Siberian Railway. There was of course another route through Italy and neighbouring neutral nations but it was close to negligible amounts. The French in particular was going tough on the Italian imports and the British was closely supervising Far Eastern Exports.
Nothing going out from the Straits Settlements like Malaya but Thailand/Siam was another matter as the Germans was paying any price demanded.
There was of course the Thai want of the South Western part of FIC that might be used as a bargaining chip but the French flatly refused any such thought and were ready to reinforce their Garrison in FIC to be ready to subdue the Thai's.
Then as in the case of the Turk Chromium Britain suggested either a sale of most wanted Thai military equipment or buying Thai rubber at German pricetag. Which of course was just as repulsive to the French.
Instead the French decided to reinforce the French Far Eastern Naval Command with both Aircraft and Ships to be able to control Thai and other trade in area which wasn't the preferred route by the British though First Sea Lord of the Admiralty didn't mind using the big stick in the Far East.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Mar 11, 2024 16:31:03 GMT
A major concern of both Heer and Luftwaffe was the ever so slowly dwindling supply of rubber coming the near only way possible – through the Soviet Union along the Trans-Siberian Railway. There was of course another route through Italy and neighbouring neutral nations but it was close to negligible amounts. The French in particular was going tough on the Italian imports and the British was closely supervising Far Eastern Exports. Nothing going out from the Straits Settlements like Malaya but Thailand/Siam was another matter as the Germans was paying any price demanded. There was of course the Thai want of the South Western part of FIC that might be used as a bargaining chip but the French flatly refused any such thought and were ready to reinforce their Garrison in FIC to be ready to subdue the Thai's. Then as in the case of the Turk Chromium Britain suggested either a sale of most wanted Thai military equipment or buying Thai rubber at German pricetag. Which of course was just as repulsive to the French. Instead the French decided to reinforce the French Far Eastern Naval Command with both Aircraft and Ships to be able to control Thai and other trade in area which wasn't the preferred route by the British though First Sea Lord of the Admiralty didn't mind using the big stick in the Far East.
That could be a boost or an error. It would mean FIC is more heavily defended if Japan tries anything but also makes it pretty certain that if Japan attacks there will be people in Thailand who are eager to join them. Although with France still fighting and Britain probably also in a stronger position that would be a risk for the Thais. One nasty option here would be if japan purchased rubber, either from British Malaya or Thailand and was willing to sell it to Germany. Although given the current state of Japanese and Soviet relations that could be an awkward issue but possibly if Germany was desperate enough.
Good point that with no Barbarossa Germany is still getting materials not just from the Soviets but also through their territory.
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Post by American hist on Mar 13, 2024 1:58:16 GMT
This is a very interesting thread! I have heard have the allies declared war on Germany in 1938 from Germany’s rape of Czechoslovakia instead of Hitler’s invasion of Poland, and France would’ve been prepared for the large infantry attacks type of warfare. Although I recognize that 1938 is not the same as 1939 October 25. Arguably the French had the best tanks in the early phase of World War II. nationalinterest.org/blog/reboot/france%E2%80%99s-superior-b1-tank-couldnt-prevent-its-world-war-ii-defeat-198908The French government was one of the biggest most mechanized military in the world. Churchill from other witnesses who participated in fighting in France in 1940 heard reports that the French did not have bad soldiers they had some bad Leaders. The French needed someone to rally support when morale was lowering |
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575
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Post by 575 on Mar 13, 2024 9:40:51 GMT
A major concern of both Heer and Luftwaffe was the ever so slowly dwindling supply of rubber coming the near only way possible – through the Soviet Union along the Trans-Siberian Railway. There was of course another route through Italy and neighbouring neutral nations but it was close to negligible amounts. The French in particular was going tough on the Italian imports and the British was closely supervising Far Eastern Exports. Nothing going out from the Straits Settlements like Malaya but Thailand/Siam was another matter as the Germans was paying any price demanded. There was of course the Thai want of the South Western part of FIC that might be used as a bargaining chip but the French flatly refused any such thought and were ready to reinforce their Garrison in FIC to be ready to subdue the Thai's. Then as in the case of the Turk Chromium Britain suggested either a sale of most wanted Thai military equipment or buying Thai rubber at German pricetag. Which of course was just as repulsive to the French. Instead the French decided to reinforce the French Far Eastern Naval Command with both Aircraft and Ships to be able to control Thai and other trade in area which wasn't the preferred route by the British though First Sea Lord of the Admiralty didn't mind using the big stick in the Far East.
That could be a boost or an error. It would mean FIC is more heavily defended if Japan tries anything but also makes it pretty certain that if Japan attacks there will be people in Thailand who are eager to join them. Although with France still fighting and Britain probably also in a stronger position that would be a risk for the Thais. One nasty option here would be if japan purchased rubber, either from British Malaya or Thailand and was willing to sell it to Germany. Although given the current state of Japanese and Soviet relations that could be an awkward issue but possibly if Germany was desperate enough.
Good point that with no Barbarossa Germany is still getting materials not just from the Soviets but also through their territory.
At the moment it is still political considerations however for the time being the Thai's don't have the OTL "opportunity" of hitting on FIC with a very much alive France. Still France have the main effort in Europa and is recruiting for that area. Regarding Thai rubber I'd expect Germany still being able to buy in Thailand and find ways of having such shipped to Vladivostok not necessarily involving Japan which might do so but have their own problems in securing supplies of oil and rubber.
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575
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Post by 575 on Mar 13, 2024 9:52:26 GMT
This is a very interesting thread! I have heard have the allies declared war on Germany in 1938 from Germany’s rape of Czechoslovakia instead of Hitler’s invasion of Poland, and France would’ve been prepared for the large infantry attacks type of warfare. Although I recognize that 1938 is not the same as 1939 October 25. Arguably the French had the best tanks in the early phase of World War II. nationalinterest.org/blog/reboot/france%E2%80%99s-superior-b1-tank-couldnt-prevent-its-world-war-ii-defeat-198908The French government was one of the biggest most mechanized military in the world. Churchill from other witnesses who participated in fighting in France in 1940 heard reports that the French did not have bad soldiers they had some bad Leaders. The French needed someone to rally support when morale was lowering By 1938 France wasn't ready for aiding Czechoslovakia nor was Britain as both was rearming. However in a war the Czechs would have tied down the majority of the German Army leaving though a number of former Reichswehr Infantry Divisions defending in the West along the building new Divisions. At that moment weather was just as crucial as ITTL as October - November 1938 was storms and other bad flying weather which would have severely limited the effect of Luftwaffe with the Germans also being in serious shortage of fuel and ammunition. Surely the French had the best armoured Tanks at early WWII though their tankcommanders would be over-taxed in their one-man turret and most would be without radio making manouevres really difficult as was proven during May 1940.
The French had numerous difficulties that wasn't sorted out prior to May 1940 - this TL gives them the opportunity to do so which I'm trying to show.
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575
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Post by 575 on Mar 19, 2024 15:47:16 GMT
The French decision to upgrade its forces in FIC sounded great but the forces there weren't much stronger than the Thai ones so not much was needed – much to the relief of the French Command.
The Thai Army of 60,000 troops had quite a number of light AFV's and the Thai Army/Navy Airforces had 12 modern Hawk-75 (with spatted main wheels) fighters, 6 Martin 139 and 9 Mitsubishi Ki-21 Sally bombers and 24 Mitsubishi Ki-30 Ann light bombers to show besides a lot of biplanes - some 70 fighters, 99 attack and 12 floatplanes.
The Thai Navy had a couple of rather heavily armed Gun Boats ordered from Japan and 2 older ones as well as a number of Torpedoboats and 4 Submarines.
In FIC the French Army consisted of 3 Light Infantry Divisions of 38,000 locals and 12,000 French troops, 10 Bombers 32 biplane Attack aircraft and 12 flying boats. The French Navy at Cam Rahn Bay consisted of an old Light Cruiser, 3 Sloops and 7 River Gunboats.
By shifting forces around the Colonies the French managed to reinforce FIC with 2 Fighter Squadrons of Morane 406 though only one was a full squadron the other the planes and other stuff to convert some in area units to the Morane's; another 10 Bombers and a number of Recce/Light Bombers. Generally just a equipment upgrade as not much more would be spared for the remote area by the High Command.
The Navy sent off a couple of Destroyers and one of Submarines.
The much advertised disembarkment of Navy and Air units from France, French North Africa and Levant soon reached Thai Newspapers and plans drawn up for reclaiming the 1904 and 07 ceded territories were shelved.
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575
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There is no Purgatory for warcriminals - they go directly to Hell!
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Post by 575 on Mar 21, 2024 19:05:48 GMT
Besides a shuffle of Divisional Commanders following the initial German attack on 25 October 1939 and then the 10 May 1940 offensive which had claimed large numbers of British Cruiser Tanks destroyed the British Armoured Corps realized that something had to be done. That something was initially replacement vehicles with a lot of time spent on discussing by what vehicles.
The Armour units Commanders wanted the Matilda II tank even if an Infantry Tank for its ability to withstand AT-fire but the BEF command wanted Cruiser tanks for the impending Allied offensive to retake Belgian territory.
Pointing to the number of lost Cruiser's the Armour Commanders won out as the Cabinet wanted to show off victory and the Cruiser Tanks wasn't the one's to serve it such.
This of course meant delay in production switch over though then instead of stopping the current production lines one factory at a time was beefed up with additional work-force to increase output while another factory would be re-geared to producing the Matilda II.
The scheme seemed to work though the factory upgrades included room for the new Hispano-Suiza tank engine being finalized in France the so far used truck diesels were still installed.
The Cruiser Tanks thus still in production were sent off to Egypt and India to provide training units with much needed vehicles.
The Commander shuffle post 10 May 1940 weren't concluded untill July and saw Percy Hobart recalled for active duty as Commander 1 Armoured Division. Major General Roger Evans had been moved to Command of 2 Armoured Division whose Commander Frederick Hotblack had been made Commander the Armoured Corps.
Major General Richard O'Connor had been picked from his post of Commander 7 Infantry Division in Egypt to become Chief-of-Staff of the Armoured Corps much to the satisfaction of General Wawell Commander Middle East who had argued that O'Connor had shown that he knew how to direct an Armoured/Motorized Force.
Thus by August 1940 as the German Spring offensive had been defeated and the Allied Armoured Divisions rebuilt or raised; British Command rebuilt as had the French Armoured Force of 7 Divisions and 2 Brigades formed into two Corps ready to attack the German positions.
In Britain a third Armoured Division was training. To be commanded by Major General John Crocker who had served with Tank units during the Inter-War years.
The Germans of course hadn't been idle on their side of the turf; because of shortages of fuel horse transport was the order of the day and motorization reserved for such imporant units as 88mm FLAK/AT.
Because of the Turk reluctance due to their WAllied commitment the Germans had gotten the short end of the Turk Chromium export. A vital artillery building ingredient the Chromium was prioritized for 88mm FLAK/AT guns in expectance of the build up of WAllied Armoured Forces to be unleashed.
Unleashed they were during the end of August. With less motorization quite a number of 88mm had been emplaced in more or less static positions with little hope of retreat should the Allied Armour break through.
Notably the French Cavalry Corps and the British Armoured Corps both showed fine results but the hoped for breakthrough of the German lines didn't really materialize as the German defenders were able to mostly up their heavy equipment when they had to give ground and move into prepared positions to their rear.
The job of the Luftwaffe AA/AT-gunners were not only dangerous because of their lack of mobility but also because the frontlines had to hold to let the main part of defenders retreat – and somebody had to hold back the Allied Armour. The 88mm guns were the only ones really able to do so though the 75mm AA guns had also been pressed into service to fill the gaps.
And usually had to make the final sacrifice to let the 88's pull out.
Though the lines held the OKW well knew that it had been a close call – those new Allied Armoured Commanders knew their job well. Hopefully the lack of a breakthrough would lead to sacking of some of their adversaries.
The Allied commanders were allowed to keep their positions however.
Even if the breakthrough hadn't materialized the Germans had been forced back even to the outskirts of Brussels. And still the quality of Tanks wasn't what was wanted or needed to defeat the Germans. The Commanders would get another shot.
For the moment the Infantry was digging in once again with the aid of Sappers and Engineer units – an arm with importance like in the Great War to build the checker-board defences on the WAllied side that had proven its worth during the many months of fighting.
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A cliff-hanger:
