|
Post by raharris1973 on Jul 27, 2023 2:23:57 GMT
Barbara Tuchman's 'The Zimmerman Telegram' discussed American beliefs and accusations about alleged Japanese aspirations for a Japanese naval base in Mexico. Not sure if it came out and credited it as an objective historic fact. Also discussed American beliefs and accusations about alleged German aspirations for German naval base in Mexico - she did tend to write write as if she took any alleged impulse or desire of the Kaiser at face value as true. I wasn't a big footnote reader when I read it, so I don't remember if it was well footnoted at all.
|
|
stevep
Fleet admiral
Posts: 24,832
Likes: 13,222
|
Post by stevep on Jul 27, 2023 17:07:46 GMT
Barbara Tuchman's 'The Zimmerman Telegram' discussed American beliefs and accusations about alleged Japanese aspirations for a Japanese naval base in Mexico. Not sure if it came out and credited it as an objective historic fact. Also discussed American beliefs and accusations about alleged German aspirations for German naval base in Mexico - she did tend to write write as if she took any alleged impulse or desire of the Kaiser at face value as true. I wasn't a big footnote reader when I read it, so I don't remember if it was well footnoted at all.
Its possible what I remember could be someone referring to what she was saying in that book. From memory it was an actual Japanese approach to Mexico shortly after WWI but at this distance in time I can't rule out being wrong.
|
|
|
Post by raharris1973 on Jul 30, 2023 19:26:32 GMT
A question about the impact of the WNT building limits on the British ship and warship building industry and overall industrial base in the interwar era:
So which is it? Did the the British shrink down their warship building industry disastrously as part of the Washington Treaty, to their detriment in countering the rise of 1930s aggressors?
Or did the Washington Treaty allow Britain to benefit economically from avoiding a naval arms race that would have been ruinous to Britain?
Or was there a happy medium, some limit that Britain would have needed to avoid to economic ruin, that could have been negotiated, but the limits of the Washington Treaty as written amounted to an 'excessive' crippling of naval production lines?
|
|
miletus12
Squadron vice admiral
To get yourself lost, just follow the signs.
Posts: 7,470
Likes: 4,295
|
Post by miletus12 on Jul 31, 2023 5:28:26 GMT
Barbara Tuchman's 'The Zimmerman Telegram' discussed American beliefs and accusations about alleged Japanese aspirations for a Japanese naval base in Mexico. Not sure if it came out and credited it as an objective historic fact. Also discussed American beliefs and accusations about alleged German aspirations for German naval base in Mexico - she did tend to write write as if she took any alleged impulse or desire of the Kaiser at face value as true. I wasn't a big footnote reader when I read it, so I don't remember if it was well footnoted at all. Barbara Tuchman's treatment of history (The Guns of August) is more "popular" than rigorous. She noted from newspaper sources and popular "yellow peril" journalism, "the beliefs" about Japanese business dealings in Mexico. Like modern Chinese business dealings in Panama, Tuchman never convinces as to whether a military presence was possible or viable. It never was. Sort of like secret German U-boat bases in the Caribbean, which was a similar rumor of the era.
|
|
miletus12
Squadron vice admiral
To get yourself lost, just follow the signs.
Posts: 7,470
Likes: 4,295
|
Post by miletus12 on Jul 31, 2023 5:33:00 GMT
A question about the impact of the WNT building limits on the British ship and warship building industry and overall industrial base in the interwar era: So which is it? Did the the British shrink down their warship building industry disastrously as part of the Washington Treaty, to their detriment in countering the rise of 1930s aggressors? Or did the Washington Treaty allow Britain to benefit economically from avoiding a naval arms race that would have been ruinous to Britain? Or was there a happy medium, some limit that Britain would have needed to avoid to economic ruin, that could have been negotiated, but the limits of the Washington Treaty as written amounted to an 'excessive' crippling of naval production lines? 1. The British shrank down their artificially inflated warship capacity by 100%. 2. The British saved about a half trillion pounds. 3. The WNT from the American point of view was just about correct. Never considered is that the British could never have manned the fleet they wanted.
|
|
|
Post by simon darkshade on Jul 31, 2023 10:27:28 GMT
Where do you get that figure of half a trillion pounds? That is not backed up by any figures in reality that I’m aware of.
Given that the cost of a G3, for example, was in the region of 7-8 million pounds, you are out by orders of magnitude. Even if they somehow build 100, or 800 million, that is rather different from 500,000,000,000.
Meanwhile, back in the real world, the intended RN fleet discussions pre WNT were not so outlandishly beyond the pale as to be impossible to man. I will look into my books in a short while after dinner to get the exact numbers.
In answer to RAHarris’s question, yes, the shrinkage was somewhat to Britain’s detriment in the 1930s, but the real ‘damage’ came in the late 1920s-early 1930s period. There was a happier medium possible and there wasn’t really any scope for economic ruin on the cards. Where that medium lies is the interesting question, but it lies somewhere in the region of 4 Cherry Trees followed by 4 new capital ships from ~1930 replacing the Iron Dukes.
Edit:
1919 Fleet Plans Atlantic: 11 battleships, 6 light cruisers, 54 destroyers, 30 submarines, Flying Squadron (Furious and 6 seaplane carriers) Home: 6 battleships, 5 light cruisers, 54 destroyers, Minelaying Squadron Med: 6 battleships, 6 light cruisers, 18 destroyers, 6 submarines China: 1 battlecruiser, 4 light cruisers, 18 destroyers, 6 submarines
Light cruiser squadrons in East Indies, Cape of Good Hope, South America and Western Atlantic (4-5 ships)
Personnel needed: 134,000 Active total: 24 capital ships, 41 cruisers, 144 destroyers, 42 submarines (Stephen Roskill, Naval Policy Between the Wars, Vol 1, p. 106)
On the same page, there is mention of a total of 33 battleships, 8 battlecruisers, 60 cruisers and 352 'torpedo-boat destroyers', which would suggest a Reserve Fleet of 9 battleships, 7 battlecruisers, 19 light cruisers and 208 destroyers. We can extrapolate various elements from that.
At that time, there were 5 QEs, 5 Rs, 4 Iron Dukes, 3 KGVs and 4 Orions; Hood, Renown, Repulse, Tiger, Lion, Princess Royal, Courageous and Glorious; 5 Hawkins, 8 Ds, 26 Cs and 8 Arethusa
|
|
miletus12
Squadron vice admiral
To get yourself lost, just follow the signs.
Posts: 7,470
Likes: 4,295
|
Post by miletus12 on Jul 31, 2023 10:30:57 GMT
Where do you get that figure of half a trillion pounds? That is not backed up by any figures in reality that I’m aware of. Given that the cost of a G3, for example, was in the region of 7-8 million pounds, you are out by orders of magnitude. Even if they somehow build 100, or 800 million, that is rather different from 500,000,000,000,000. Meanwhile, back in the real world, the intended RN fleet discussions pre WNT were not so outlandishly beyond the pale as to be impossible to man. I will look into my books in a short while after dinner to get the exact numbers. In answer to RAHarris’s question, yes, the shrinkage was somewhat to Britain’s detriment in the 1930s, but the real ‘damage’ came in the late 1920s-early 1930s period. There was a happier medium possible and there wasn’t really any scope for economic ruin on the cards. Where that medium lies is the interesting question, but it lies somewhere in the region of 4 Cherry Trees followed by 4 new capital ships from ~1930 replacing the Iron Dukes. 1. 2023 unit conversion over 100 years. Credit NOMISYRRUC. 2. The British have to dredge and build infrastructure for these huge ships. 3. Look at the projected crew sizes and needed added small boys. (Destroyers and auxiliaries.)
|
|
|
Post by simon darkshade on Jul 31, 2023 11:04:39 GMT
1.) I’m aware of Nomisyrruc’s work and have had many positive interactions with him. I’m aware of that very table, have used it and discussed it.
That said, it is pretty strange to inflate costs to modern values when the figures from the time are available. It doesn’t really make your point and certainly doesn’t get to 500 billion pounds. The cost of projected ships, even at the high end, would come out to 8-10 million each. Take 8 or even 12 ships, for 80-120 million pounds in the 1920s, multiply that by 57.18 and we get 5,489,280,000 - 6,871,600,000. You’re out by a factor of 100.
2.) The vessels projected pre WNT were within the capacity of existing infrastructure; indeed, those limitations were quite heavily involved in the size of the various designs.
3.) The RN already built destroyers in the 1920s in the budgets outlined above, but no one was really in the large scale destroyer construction game in the period 1920-1930 because of the large numbers of relatively new Great War destroyers present. Both the RN and USN were in many ways had the albatross of the R/S/V/Ws and the Clemson/Wickes classes around their figurative necks. A flotilla of 9 destroyers cost ~4.5 million pounds in the mid 1930s; the exigencies of destroyer numbers are something of a different discussion.
|
|
miletus12
Squadron vice admiral
To get yourself lost, just follow the signs.
Posts: 7,470
Likes: 4,295
|
Post by miletus12 on Jul 31, 2023 11:16:50 GMT
1.) I’m aware of Nomisyrruc’s work and have had many positive interactions with him. I’m aware of that very table, have used it and discussed it. That said, it is pretty strange to inflate costs to modern values when the figures from the time are available. It doesn’t really make your point and certainly doesn’t get to 500 billion pounds. The cost of projected ships, even at the high end, would come out to 8-10 million each. Take 8 or even 12 ships, for 80-120 million pounds in the 1920s, multiply that by 57.18 and we get 5,489,280,000 - 6,871,600,000. You’re out by a factor of 100. 2.) The vessels projected pre WNT were within the capacity of existing infrastructure; indeed, those limitations were quite heavily involved in the size of the various designs. 3.) The RN already built destroyers in the 1920s in the budgets outlined above, but no one was really in the large scale destroyer construction game in the period 1920-1930 because of the large numbers of relatively new Great War destroyers present. Both the RN and USN were in many ways had the albatross of the R/S/V/Ws and the Clemson/Wickes classes around their figurative necks. A flotilla of 9 destroyers cost ~4.5 million pounds in the mid 1930s; the exigencies of destroyer numbers are something of a different discussion. 1. I have to use a baseline somewhere. I do not think many modern people understand why a Mark 8 torpedo in $10,000 1922 dollars would be considered expensive. They get a better idea if I hit them with the 2023 $240,000 price tag. 2. The G series and the N-series were as big as the Hood. The Hood was a problem. You will see that the KGVs were considerably smaller, as was the Ark Royal? 3. You build a full support system for the GF in 1930s battle fleet terms which was the faulty thinking of the times, you have to build a minimum of 8 destroyers and 2 light cruisers per battleship, using Jutland thinking. The Wickes / Clemsons were designed by the same idiot (David W. Taylor) who gave us the 1923 South Dakotas. Unseaworthy, and that is the USN definition, not the British navy one, is "charitable". The British WWI destroyers were mostlty North Sea boats and were a bit small and wet themselves. They were not really blue water units.
|
|
|
Post by simon darkshade on Jul 31, 2023 11:49:04 GMT
1.) We are dealing with alternate history aficionados here. It can be assumed that they understand prices and indeed are interested in the minutiae of them. 2.) Largely irrelevant. The key figures were the length of the designs, constrained by British dockyards to ~860ft, which is the G3 (856) and longer than the N3 (820). The reason for the length constraints on the KGVs were from treaty compliance 3.) 1 flotilla per battleship doesn't lead to numbers which break the camel's back, as it were. I agree on the relatively low value of both the RN and USN destroyers of the Great War for subsequent conflicts and use; by existing, they allowed bean counters to defer destroyer production
In any event, my view on RAHarris's 'happy medium' is 4 ships in the early 1920s (Orion replacement) and a further four in the late 1920s/early 1930s (KGV replacement). That would be followed in the early-mid 1930s by the Iron Duke replacements. That size of programme would be sufficient to preserve capacity, industrial capacity, skill and experience through the @ locust years.
|
|
miletus12
Squadron vice admiral
To get yourself lost, just follow the signs.
Posts: 7,470
Likes: 4,295
|
Post by miletus12 on Jul 31, 2023 12:44:04 GMT
1.) We are dealing with alternate history aficionados here. It can be assumed that they understand prices and indeed are interested in the minutiae of them. 2.) Largely irrelevant. The key figures were the length of the designs, constrained by British dockyards to ~860ft, which is the G3 (856) and longer than the N3 (820). The reason for the length constraints on the KGVs were from treaty compliance 3.) 1 flotilla per battleship doesn't lead to numbers which break the camel's back, as it were. I agree on the relatively low value of both the RN and USN destroyers of the Great War for subsequent conflicts and use; by existing, they allowed bean counters to defer destroyer production In any event, my view on RAHarris's 'happy medium' is 4 ships in the early 1920s (Orion replacement) and a further four in the late 1920s/early 1930s (KGV replacement). That would be followed in the early-mid 1930s by the Iron Duke replacements. That size of programme would be sufficient to preserve capacity, industrial capacity, skill and experience through the @ locust years. 1. When it comes to money, I stand by my benchmark. It is s stable comparator to use present monetary value for those who live today. I find it convenient in that it comes as a complete shock to modern people, just how much their ancestors wasted on "armaments" during a depression. 2. Treaty compliance? No. Ark Royal's length was length restricted at 800 feet with the flight deck overhang added AFTER her launching. Her hull length was restricted to the same length as the KGGs or about 750 feet; which was the ACTUAL work length of British docks, not 860. 3. 16 battleships = 128 destroyers. Then you need convoy escorts for commerce and naval reserves for fleet trains. The British negotiators complained when they were not allowed a minimum of 60 cruisers. They thought the USN could get by with about 30. You probably know how I would analyze that position? The British have how many barbette assembly stands? 10? How do you build 30 barbettes and test them in a 5 year period? The Americans built 10 battleships and suffered massive delays with TWELVE barbette stands in 5 years. Then you have the British armor plate bottleneck, the fact that the British navy had completely screwed up their gun policies, and their defective propulsion plant technology and the mistakes made in fire control systems that were not solved until AFTER WWII. I would be cautious about assuming unit for unit replacement, under those conditions, much less "expansion" until I had a firm grasp on the guns' problem, just for starters.
|
|
|
Post by simon darkshade on Jul 31, 2023 13:13:06 GMT
1.) It isn’t the best benchmark to employ if it muddies the waters, which is what you get when you are dealing with a matter of budgets and historical data. You aren’t dealing with some nebulous group of ‘modern people’, but with posters here. What’s more, this whole line emerged from you being way, way out in terms of the figures being talked about. That is easily avoided by sticking to a single price, from the time.
As someone who deals with historical prices, GDPs and budgets enough, that is the best way to avoid both confusing readers and slipping up yourself.
The figure was not 500 billion, nor in the ballpark of it. All you need to do is accept you were wrong. It isn’t a big deal - everyone makes little mistakes with numbers.
2.) This is another of your issues: shifting the goalposts. I didn’t even mention Ark Royal. The comment was on the KGVs, which were constrained in their dimensions by treaty, in that their displacement drove the design choices. You then add another measure, purely of your own, regarding ‘actual work length’. Every online and offline source on the issue, and I’ve read more on the nature of RN warship design in the 20th century than is natural or healthy for a chap, discusses the dock dimensions.
3.) I don’t know where you are conjuring 16 from as a number, but it does not matter. In 1919, 1921 or 1922, the RN wasn’t starting from scratch, but from an existing fleet of 65 V/Ws, 60 Ss and 50 Rs, plus new construction moving forward. The Great War ships aren’t really good, but are good enough whilst the Standards get built.
Convoy escorts were covered under the thinking of the time by cruisers, insofar as immediate postwar planning went. The debates over cruiser numbers come way later down the line, well outside of the parameters of this scenario and this question on it.
Mod hat on: Please stick to the question, rather than turning into another homily on your usual topics.
|
|
miletus12
Squadron vice admiral
To get yourself lost, just follow the signs.
Posts: 7,470
Likes: 4,295
|
Post by miletus12 on Jul 31, 2023 14:48:52 GMT
1. Argument over the total cost of a program is based on a difference in opinion on how to benchmark the costs. Over a 10 year or 20 year time-scale as would be involved in this specific situation, how do you propose to set a SCALAR? An aircraft carrier of the superheavyweight class built in 1960 was 350 million 1960 USD. That same aircraft carrier today would be about 4.2 BILLION dollars. Which fits well with the actual costs and capabilities of a QE class aircraft carrier. Mind you; I am not including the air group, the bodyguard ships or the aviation and shoreside support. I can measure those costs and assign a scalar. They are not nebulous in modern dollars by simply taking the year build and factoring inflation. I am sure that the posters to this board know how it is done and can follow the mathematics as applied. You may want to go the other way. THAT was not how I was trained to compute costs; as it creates a false sense of "economy" over time. I suppose we will have to disagree. Over 20 years a 500 billion dollar naval budget 1920-1940 in adjusted 2023 British pounds in the heyday of "empire" is not only logical, it fits close to what was spent. 2. I expected that attempted observation. As I wrote to @raharris about such subject matters, it is not a matter of a few "simple observations". 3. Ark Royal WAS the benchmark and an important one. It was longer than any actual capital ship the British planned and built in the 1930s, due to dockyard length restrictions specifically in Malta and Gibraltar, but also in the majority of home dockyards, too. I believe Vanguard was built to about 820 feet for the same relaxed reasons that Hood was (speed) and became a subsequent problem like akin to Hood. 4. Displacement only affects hull length to a certain extent. You go short and fat as with a South Dakota or long and skinny as with a North Carolina. Your real limiter is throughput into the screws as thrust and also your hull slippage in wetted area as drag. You want long and skinny if you can build to it for speed. The British did not build long and skinny because their docks were too short. Simple enough as Occam would say. It was the same reason they screwed up the hull form of the Ark Royal as to flight deck operation desired characteristics. The dock usage length limited ship length. 5. The Number 16 is the natural fit as to real time history to what the RN could peacetime man and maintain as to battleships. 6. The Americans were well aware of the cruiser question in 1927, not 1930 in Geneva which I should have made clear so as to negate the "cruiser question" mispresentation British historians still maintain down to the present. The British wanted many cruisers for surface raider trade protection and attack, not fleet escort in the WNT talks. 7. The destroyer question (175 British) actually related; shows that the British had not quite got the memo on the First Battle of the Atlantic. Cruisers were USELESS against submarines. 8. I have tried very hard to be on topic when it comes to the British navy. Mod hat on: Please stick to the question, rather than turning into another homily on your usual topics. The question "The Washington Naval Treaty It was a solution to a problem that was more apparent than real" The fact is that the Washington Naval Treaty solved many problems that would have led to war much sooner than it did. And no, I am not claiming an Anglo-American arms race, or an American-Japanese arms race, because until 1935, there was no race. Just jockeying within the treaty. The treaty did that much right. The treaty actually worked. Then two things happened, The Italians and French jumped the reservation and there was the AGNA, which gave them and the Japanese the excuse they needed to resume the arms race.
|
|
|
Post by simon darkshade on Jul 31, 2023 15:10:55 GMT
Not only are you waffling, but now you are trying to shift the goalposts at the same time, from the alleged savings in the RN budget from the WNT to the entire budget of 20 years, including pre WW2 rearmament. Even then, with everything shifted around, you're still wrong, as the total budget in the source you posted above, adjusted for inflation, would come to 75 billion pounds.
The question being posed was that outlined by raharris1973 above:
A question about the impact of the WNT building limits on the British ship and warship building industry and overall industrial base in the interwar era:
So which is it? Did the the British shrink down their warship building industry disastrously as part of the Washington Treaty, to their detriment in countering the rise of 1930s aggressors?
Or did the Washington Treaty allow Britain to benefit economically from avoiding a naval arms race that would have been ruinous to Britain?
Or was there a happy medium, some limit that Britain would have needed to avoid to economic ruin, that could have been negotiated, but the limits of the Washington Treaty as written amounted to an 'excessive' crippling of naval production lines?
This had been outlined previously in conversation. To then shift it back to the original post is disingenuous at the least. To do so whilst quoting a mod direction is not a good idea. To do so whilst quoting a mod direction and in the process blaming the AGNA on Japanese and Italian violations of international treaties is really not a good idea.
I'm temporarily locking this pending some discussion.
|
|
|
Post by simon darkshade on Jul 31, 2023 15:59:30 GMT
Mod hat on:
The thread is now unlocked. Please stick to the topic and to the most recent question at hand.
For avoidance of confusion, if the author of a thread/the OP asks a question, that can be interpreted as the most recent question at hand. This does not preclude addressing the OP, but it is good practice to try and focus.
Thank you.
|
|