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Post by raharris1973 on Jun 21, 2023 3:09:41 GMT
With a Point of Divergence after Pearl Harbor, your challenge is to ensure that the final surrender of an Axis power comes not from Japan, as it historically was in September 2nd 1945, but from Germany. This can be done by either extending the lifespan of Nazi Germany powers,or by ensuring the Japanese will be the first one to collapse. Ideally Japan would surrender with as few preconditions as OTL (IE, related to the Emperor), but you can bend this requirement if you feel you must and can devise a convincing way to get the Allies to accept a more conditions attached to Japan's surrender than OTL, or fewer.
This is not including other powers such as Italy, Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary, Finland and Thailand, those can surrender at any time.
A Japan-first policy amongst the allies may be the challenge here because Britain and the Soviets will both push far more to counter Germany, which is an imminent threat to their homelands, than the Japanese. The second challenge is the fanaticism of the Japanese defenders in the first place, considering the military even attempted a coup in 1945 (that is after it was apparent the war was lost, with two nuclear detonations, a Soviet invasion, and the loss of the IJN) despite going against the Emperor's wishes.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jun 21, 2023 15:21:44 GMT
With a Point of Divergence after Pearl Harbor, your challenge is to ensure that the final surrender of an Axis power comes not from Japan, as it historically was in September 2nd 1945, but from Germany. This can be done by either extending the lifespan of Nazi Germany powers,or by ensuring the Japanese will be the first one to collapse. Ideally Japan would surrender with as few preconditions as OTL (IE, related to the Emperor), but you can bend this requirement if you feel you must and can devise a convincing way to get the Allies to accept a more conditions attached to Japan's surrender than OTL, or fewer. This is not including other powers such as Italy, Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary, Finland and Thailand, those can surrender at any time. A Japan-first policy amongst the allies may be the challenge here because Britain and the Soviets will both push far more to counter Germany, which is an imminent threat to their homelands, than the Japanese. The second challenge is the fanaticism of the Japanese defenders in the first place, considering the military even attempted a coup in 1945 (that is after it was apparent the war was lost, with two nuclear detonations, a Soviet invasion, and the loss of the IJN) despite going against the Emperor's wishes.
With no change prior to Pearl Harbour it would be awkward but if you can get changes which means the allies hold Malaya, Sumatra and at least some of Java then a Japanese collapse would be markedly quicker than OTL as their economy, let alone their war machine can't work without raw materials, most especially oil from those southern conquests. They might get some from occupied Borneo but that would be limited and also would be vulnerable to allied operations.
Of course the key problem here would be that if Japan is on the defensive from way mid-42 and its war machine is already collapsing the allies might well give it a markedly lower priority than OTL. Even if political reasons meant areas such as Borneo and the Philippines are liberated and direct aid to China from the south means the KMT are able to liberate much of the Chinese mainland the nature of the Japanese regime might mean they refuse to surrender - at least the pretty much unconditional surrender the allies are likely to demand. As such they could be left to wither on the vine, probably with even worse suffering for the Japanese population until after the primary threat of Nazi Germany is defeated.
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miletus12
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Post by miletus12 on Jun 21, 2023 15:24:52 GMT
A Japan-first policy amongst the allies may be the challenge here because Britain and the Soviets will both push far more to counter Germany, which is an imminent threat to their homelands, than the Japanese. The second challenge is the fanaticism of the Japanese defenders in the first place, considering the military even attempted a coup in 1945 (that is after it was apparent the war was lost, with two nuclear detonations, a Soviet invasion, and the loss of the IJN) despite going against the Emperor's wishes. Just fix the Mark 14.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jun 21, 2023 15:38:38 GMT
A Japan-first policy amongst the allies may be the challenge here because Britain and the Soviets will both push far more to counter Germany, which is an imminent threat to their homelands, than the Japanese. The second challenge is the fanaticism of the Japanese defenders in the first place, considering the military even attempted a coup in 1945 (that is after it was apparent the war was lost, with two nuclear detonations, a Soviet invasion, and the loss of the IJN) despite going against the Emperor's wishes. Just fix the Mark 14.
Not going to have a big enough impact to achieve the required result. Especially given the determination of the military to maintain control regardless of the costs to Japan.
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miletus12
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Post by miletus12 on Jun 21, 2023 16:07:49 GMT
Not going to have a big enough impact to achieve the required result. Especially given the determination of the military to maintain control regardless of the costs to Japan.
You are mistaken. 2 MILLION tonnes of shipping including 5 AIRCRAFT CARRIERS in 1942 and 1943 shaves off a year.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jun 21, 2023 21:33:01 GMT
Not going to have a big enough impact to achieve the required result. Especially given the determination of the military to maintain control regardless of the costs to Japan.
You are mistaken. 2 MILLION tonnes of shipping including 5 AIRCRAFT CARRIERS in 1942 and 1943 shaves off a year.
I disagree. You still need to get the problem accepted and action done to rectify it. Then have the new torpedo variant deployed in large numbers as well as building more subs. This all takes time so as such its likely, with a POD on 7-12-41 to be 43 before you start seeing significant new hits.
Then you still have to get Japan to surrender. In 44 B-29's aren't being deployed in sufficient numbers and in the right approach [low level fire bombing attacks on urban centres] to do significant damage. Nor is there going to be a threat of Soviet intervention, nukes or that early getting anywhere near a US invasion of Japan itself. You can take down the Japanese oil and food supplies faster but not fast enough to really depose the military that much faster.
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miletus12
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Post by miletus12 on Jun 22, 2023 1:41:14 GMT
You are mistaken. 2 MILLION tonnes of shipping including 5 AIRCRAFT CARRIERS in 1942 and 1943 shaves off a year.
I disagree. You still need to get the problem accepted and action done to rectify it. Then have the new torpedo variant deployed in large numbers as well as building more subs. This all takes time so as such its likely, with a POD on 7-12-41 to be 43 before you start seeing significant new hits.
Then you still have to get Japan to surrender. In 44 B-29's aren't being deployed in sufficient numbers and in the right approach [low level fire bombing attacks on urban centres] to do significant damage. Nor is there going to be a threat of Soviet intervention, nukes or that early getting anywhere near a US invasion of Japan itself. You can take down the Japanese oil and food supplies faster but not fast enough to really depose the military that much faster.
USS Trigger (SS-237)Let me tell you the REST of that story... There were THREE Japanese aircraft carriers present, Hiyo, Junyo and Chitose. The USS Trigger attacked all three with 10 torpedoes. She hit all of them with 7 of 10 fish. The four explosions were all prematures. Three missed and three clanged. Now there is the one about USS Nautilus, which clanged both the aircraft carrier Kaga and the battleship Kongo at Midway. or the FIVE US submarines, each steered by Ultra to intercept her, who should have gotten the aircraft carrier, Shokaku, after Coral Sea, where her bow was stoved in by a defective 1,000 pounder from a Dauntless, but those submarines' fish ran too deep, failed to run or prematured when the Mark 6 exploder went off too far away from that aircraft carrier. There are your five aircraft carriers. NOW... here is the KICKER. The ever helpful British suggested that the Americans might want to check their own magnetic exploders about October 1940. Our idiots did. Bu-Ord knew by January 1940 (Note the date? M.), that there was something seriously wrong with the Mark 6, and they even had an idea that it was the inclination of flux lines in the Earth's magnetic fields which affected the sensitivity of signal thresh-hold, which would cause a premature triggering dependent on latitude. The PROBLEM was that the fix required a US warship to circumnavigate the earth at least a hundred times and MEASURE those flux line inclinations according to latitude. The reason for that, was to compile a firing tables book. This would have been an indexed lat/long set of tables that would have told the torpedo men how to adjust a back installed rheostat slide controller to set the Mark 6 for the local magnetic flux line inclinations and estimated tonnage of the STEEL target that would disrupt those flux lines thus triggering the klystrons in the firing circuit. That would take at least four years to MAP the earth, magnetically, and compile the tables. Now imagine what would happen if THAT got out? The Germans knew about the magnetic exploder problem from Norway. The British knew about it from the Taranto Raid when most of their fish failed. Albert Einstein, after the USN asked him about it, knew about the magnetic exploder problem. It seemed the last people who knew about the magnetic exploder problem were the fighting crews of the USN. By the way, there was a USN officer who suggested the rheostat switch and global mapping of the Earth's magnetic field. His name was Ralph Waldo Christie. He invented the Mark 6. He took a new US cruiser, the USS Indianapolis as a trials ship to start that mapping, when guess what interrupted this program? Change of administration in 1933-34 (Note the DATE?) and a new idiot, secretary of the navy, and a new chief of the Bureau of Ordnance, (STARK), kiboshed the survey as a cost savings measure. Besides, FDR needed a yacht. Anyhow, 1926, 1931, 1933-1934, there were a dozen chances to get the magnetic influence exploder right which the University of Washington finally did in 1946. Note that date? The magnetic mapping of the Earth was completed by the Korean War. The depth keeping problem was another piece of stupidity that would have been solved once live fire trials of the exploder, if done as suggested, had been carried out once the mapping issue was resolved. The contact element of the exploder, was additional stupid engineering, that cold shots, also suggested, would have revealed. The expletive deleted who nixed, neined, Frankensteined, all of these suggestions 1934 to 1937 was this piece of manure. Then HE HID the exploder away (1937) so technical people within the fleet could not look at or tinker with it, using the excuse that it was a "national security secret". Call me cynical, but I tend to think Stark knew exactly what I wrote. Just like he knew what stripping the Pacific Fleet of its oil tankers, and the Atlantic fleet of its destroyers would do. I happen to know a lot about my nation's naval history, Steve. Most of it, is not let out into the public domain, because of that thing about not letting the people lose confidence in their navy. But you know something? I am not a believer in that fakery. If you want to shorten wars, avoid wars and in general keep the peace, then you want to understand what went wrong and make sure it never happens again, like the problem we had with Polaris / Poseidon when the missiles carried warheads that would not detonate even though we ran cold shots on those jokers for a DECADE before we fixed that problem. That would be a long wee bit before my time; but it was fixed about the year James Earl Jackanapes became POTUS. We retired those missiles 3 years later.
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Post by Max Sinister on Jun 24, 2023 12:27:23 GMT
Feel free to use anything from this thread. A "Japan first" strategy would help. As would Nazi Germany not declaring war on the US. But how to achieve either?
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Post by raharris1973 on Jun 25, 2023 0:36:20 GMT
Feel free to use anything from this thread. A "Japan first" strategy would help. As would Nazi Germany not declaring war on the US. But how to achieve either? Thanks for pointing this out. I'm sorry I didn't look and see the question had been explored so recently before starting a new thread on it.
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kasumigenx
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Post by kasumigenx on Apr 5, 2024 8:03:16 GMT
Butterflying the atomic bombing in Japan means there will be more Christians particularly Catholics in Japan which means there is a possibility to change the government in Japan in order to accommodate religious minorities.
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Post by longvin on Apr 8, 2024 1:44:38 GMT
You're going to need a Japan first strategy in order to make this happen. I think the easiest way to do this is to have some sort of disaster happen in Europe that is such a morale blow to the US that they need to shift gears to a front where they have been getting victories prior to keep morale up and prevent calls for peace. So, let's say that the American brass stays stubborn and insists on landing in Europe in 1942, they decide North Africa and Italy are distractions and if Germany itself is threatened the other fronts will collapse.
This early D-Day goes about as well as one can expect, tens of thousands of Americans are dead/captured and the Army in Europe is humiliated and also needs time to rebuild. Worse though is that the American public thinks the war is going to be lost. The only good news is coming out of the Pacific. Politicians are already worried about elections (depending on the timing of the invasion we might still be contending with midterms) and demand victories to bolster poll numbers. Because of this political necessity there is a push to focus efforts on Japan for at least a year or so until a new strategy can be utilized in Europe. It won't cut down the end of the war tremendously simply because of the massive logistics and distances involved in the Pacific but it could eke out a slightly quicker victory against Japan.
Another option, or combined with the one above is, a big cut to lend lease to the Soviet Union. Let's say the Soviet spy rings in America get found out early in the war and in a dramatic public fashion. There is strong hostility against this so-called "ally" now and there are demands that lend lease ends. The US government doesn't believe a separate between Germany and the SU is possible given Hitler's personality and decides to cut lend lease hoping to bleed the SU dry in the process of the war. Slower SU advance means a slower collapse of Germany.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Apr 8, 2024 17:40:39 GMT
You're going to need a Japan first strategy in order to make this happen. I think the easiest way to do this is to have some sort of disaster happen in Europe that is such a morale blow to the US that they need to shift gears to a front where they have been getting victories prior to keep morale up and prevent calls for peace. So, let's say that the American brass stays stubborn and insists on landing in Europe in 1942, they decide North Africa and Italy are distractions and if Germany itself is threatened the other fronts will collapse. This early D-Day goes about as well as one can expect, tens of thousands of Americans are dead/captured and the Army in Europe is humiliated and also needs time to rebuild. Worse though is that the American public thinks the war is going to be lost. The only good news is coming out of the Pacific. Politicians are already worried about elections (depending on the timing of the invasion we might still be contending with midterms) and demand victories to bolster poll numbers. Because of this political necessity there is a push to focus efforts on Japan for at least a year or so until a new strategy can be utilized in Europe. It won't cut down the end of the war tremendously simply because of the massive logistics and distances involved in the Pacific but it could eke out a slightly quicker victory against Japan. Another option, or combined with the one above is, a big cut to lend lease to the Soviet Union. Let's say the Soviet spy rings in America get found out early in the war and in a dramatic public fashion. There is strong hostility against this so-called "ally" now and there are demands that lend lease ends. The US government doesn't believe a separate between Germany and the SU is possible given Hitler's personality and decides to cut lend lease hoping to bleed the SU dry in the process of the war. Slower SU advance means a slower collapse of Germany.
Its an interesting idea but I don't think that would work. Having lost the vital SE Asia region the allies can't really advance much faster as they lack the logistics for an advance and both logistics and the necessarily CV and other naval forces for an advance via the central Pacific route. Their likely to take higher casualties trying and without B-29 fire bomb attacks or nukes - as well as no Soviet invasion of Manchuria they would need to actually invade Japan which is likely to be massively expensive and might well fail.
Also Germany is much the greater threat given its technology and resource base so its very unlikely that the US would accept the idea of a Japan 1st policy. Which would also cause serious concern in both London and Moscow and while some event - such as uncovering Soviet espionage rings - might reduce the influence of the latter Britain is going to expose its opposition to such a move. Furthermore until probably 43 at the earliest it would be unclear to many that Germany couldn't win either against the Soviets or force Britain out of the war. Either of which could seriously damaged impact American interests.
I do agree that an attempted invasion of N France in 42 would be an absolute disaster - along with the negative impact on other areas such as the battles in the Atlantic and in N Africa. However I think they would have to double down on Europe in such a situation. Also a 42 landing would be overwhelmingly dependent on British basing, supplies and forces so it would be likely that London would veto such a move.
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Post by Max Sinister on Apr 10, 2024 0:56:15 GMT
Now I wonder how promising landings somewhere in SE Asia in the back of the Japanese would be. Is there a "soft underbelly" somewhere?
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Apr 10, 2024 15:07:38 GMT
Now I wonder how promising landings somewhere in SE Asia in the back of the Japanese would be. Is there a "soft underbelly" somewhere?
Well the key areas were Malaya and Sumatra I think it was in SE Asia - as they had the supplies that Japan desperately needed. However once lost their going to be difficult to recover quickly. Britain is too stretched and the US is short on manpower and barely breaking even with Japan in navy until after Midway/Guadalcanal - depending on your point of view. Plus for the US to switch the bulk of its available forces to operate from say India or western Australia for such operations would require both a logistic network to be set up and also the US leaving Hawaii and its path to WS Pacific and Australia largely undefended so I can't see that happening. Plus even if those areas were liberated quickly the Japanese resource base would be greatly impacted faster but your still likely to see bitter resistance anywhere they could put forces that could live off the locals.
One other possible option might be if Burma stays in British hands. If so not only is it a possible base for strikes against Japanese interests in Malaysia and Thailand - although probably nothing other that logistical attacks until 43 at the earliest but also a hell of a lot more aid being able to reach China via the Burma road. Coupled with some allied air power and possibly a few western ground units that could cause great problems for the Japanese forces in China. That's where a hell of a lot of the Japanese army were for much of the war and it was the excuse for attacking the western powers so if their forces in China were looking to be collapsing that could change minds in Tokyo somewhat faster than OTL.
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Post by Max Sinister on Apr 10, 2024 22:28:48 GMT
"the US is short on manpower"? It sounds unbelievable, given how many men and resources they have. At the end of WW2, they had 24 million men mobilized!
The US Navy was stronger than the IJN either, 10:7 or a bit worse since the Japanese cheated. However, the US Navy was divided about equally between Atlantic and Pacific, which gave the Japanese the thought: First defeat one half of it, then the other half later when it has arrived.
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