stevep
Fleet admiral
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Post by stevep on Jun 20, 2023 13:34:24 GMT
Worst off is easy out of that mob - Canada. Russia had the basic Soviet equipment and plants, but in a heck of a mess. China was not yet in its manufacturing and exporting stage, nor really possessed of ‘modern’ industry, so they are a maybe. The Yanks get the guernsey on account of their economic size and cash allowing potential retooling of the residual capacity in the Rust Belt and beyond. Realistically, the last time the Yanks had the military industrial capacity to convert to a WW2 style effort was during Vietnam. The cuts started after then, as well as the ripples. Another factor at play is that you can’t fight a major war like this with a volunteer army. The anti-draft assumptions just get binned.
For Russia not only is it in a hell of a mess but the dissolution of the Soviet Union, along with the occupation of massive areas by the Nazis means a lot of production chains are disrupted. On the plus side they have a large army that has been relocated to safe areas - although how safe would depend on the location their moved to and the large stocks of stored items will be in better condition than OTL.
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Post by simon darkshade on Jun 20, 2023 13:58:42 GMT
Quite right on both points there. The Nazis at the gate and no means of nuking them means that they are likely going to go gas happy for a bit until their modern tanks, BMPs, arty and air can be bought directly to bear. Of course, this is the Russian Army that struggled in Chechnya Round 1 shortly after this point, not the seasoned Red Army of 1944 and 1945.
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Post by raharris1973 on Jun 21, 2023 2:44:41 GMT
Another factor at play is that you can’t fight a major war like this with a volunteer army. The anti-draft assumptions just get binned It's friggin' Nazis. Soon to have V-weapons. Bad ole' Holocaustin', British PoW holdin' Nazis. Going back to a draft won't be a problem. Now, of course the US command, in tandem with Allies, will also be seeking shortcuts, to maximize the operational effect of more modern capabilities to hopefully try to end the war through decapitation, and well-aimed shock and awe *before* the struggle goes on long enough to compel a war of mass production and attrition. So they would try to construct an operational design making best use of high-speed, high-altitude, long-range high-capacity and precision strike weapons, cruise missiles, SOF teams and so on against key Reich leadership and C2 as first priority. The Allies almost *have* to do this, because if they accept war on even industrial terms, where the uptime countries are likely all at quantitative *disadvantage*, Spain and Turkey may be overrun and looted by the Axis for their tech and agricultural produce. Heck, maybe the Nazis if they invade through Turkey could establish a land link with Syria, Iraq and Iran using Turkey's modern highway systems to connect with those oil sources and jointly fight the American Great Satan and the British and Israeli Little Satans.
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Post by raharris1973 on Jun 21, 2023 3:03:43 GMT
China was not yet in its manufacturing and exporting stage, nor really possessed of ‘modern’ industry, so they are a maybe. I think this is a bit of an exaggeration, depending on what your values are for 'manufacturing', 'exporting', and 'modern'. Are you under 30 y.o, or under 40 y.o.? Because China was already getting pretty busy in the light and cheap export game like toys and footwear by the late 1980s. And it already had an industrial rust belt that was certainly on par with mid century, WWII and 1950s smokestack heavy manufacturing of coal, steel, and petrochemicals. It was already doing shipbuilding by the 1990s. Not really doing export viable cars or computers, but could of course make locomotives and basically linear adaptations of what had been state of the art 1950s Soviet arms tech. They would lose a lot of their foreign exchange earning light industrial and assembly export plants for cheap stuff with Japanese occupied areas covering their coastal regions or blockading them, but their rust belt of old metallurgical plants and arms plants from the early five year plans would still be around from the 50s and the 60s when they were deliberately building much of their defense infrastructure in the interior in preparation for getting the short end of the stick in WWIII. That level of industrialization will be perfect to provide a nice decade or two hardware and productivity edge over what the 1943 Japanese will be pumping out of their factories in the home islands, Korea, Manchuria, and occupied China. So I think ironically China's legacy 'Vietnam era' industry or ability to reach back to it for warlike purposes is a simpler transition for them than for the USA and possibly Russia. The Chinese just may not be as fantastically positioned to switch back to consumer goods or high tech upon winning the war. But chemically incinerating the Japanese homeland may help their competitive position!
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Post by raharris1973 on Jun 21, 2023 3:08:36 GMT
Interesting idea for Mexico and possibly other parts of Latin America doing better in TTL. I could imagine the Brazilian aircraft and shipbuilding industry having quite the boom time. So much of the world's ship-building capacity had moved to the Pacific Rim by this point and has gone 'poof'.
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miletus12
Squadron vice admiral
To get yourself lost, just follow the signs.
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Post by miletus12 on Jun 21, 2023 4:13:55 GMT
What if all Axis occupied territories and their maritime EEZs from July 15th, 1943 are ISOT to July 15th 1993? Here are the relevant maps - close enough, maps as of 1 July European-Mediterranean Theater: upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/bb/1943-07-01GerWW2BattlefrontAtlas.jpgAsia-Pacific Front: upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/9f/1943-07-01JapWW2BattlefrontAtlas.jpgMost relevant deviation, July 15th is five days into Operation Husky, the Allied Invasion and Sicily, and all of 1943 Sicily, including the downtime Allied invading forces and the supporting Allied fleet in Sicilian waters, comes with the island. Battlefront map: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allied_invasion_of_Sicily#/media/File:Sicilymap2.jpgOn land, for the most part, the boundary between uptime and downtime is at the Axis and Allied forward line of troops or no-man's land in between, so the Axis side is downtime 1943 and the Allied side, or across the border into neutral countries is uptime 1993. The divide continues in a vertical column up through the whole atmosphere and down underground to below the earth's crust. so in the skies over Axis lands, its likely to be majority Axis aircraft overall, but Allied aircraft over Axis airspace make the time travel also. In certain cases of mixed occupation of certain islands, like Sicily and New Guinea, the whole island is the downtime version, Axis and Allied militaries both, and the 1943 civilian populations. So 1993 will get reacquainted with Patton, and depending on his travel schedule, MacArthur. On land in Europe, the 1943 European Axis borders the 1993 Russian Federation under Boris Yeltsin, which has been hammered by late Soviet stagnation and post-Soviet economic collapse and shock therapy. It also borders with neutral 1993 Sweden under Prime Minister Carl Bildt. What the Axis thinks as neutral , but with NATO obligations in 1993, Turkey under PM Ms. Tansu Ciller, and Spain PM Felipe Gonzalez. Britain's PM is John Major. In the wider neighborhood, Yitzhak Rabin is PM of Israel. The Middle East and North Africa and all Africa and South and Central Asia all have their 1993 populations, infrastructures, and leaders. An important detail here is that the 1993 French President Mitterand, PM Juppe, inner Cabinet, special forces, navy, Air Force, and intelligence services are not overwritten but relocated to the French Caribbean departments of Guadalupe, Martinique, and Guiana. British forces in continental Europe as of 1993 are relocated back to the United Kingdom. United States forces in continental Europe as of 1993 are relocated back to the United States. Russian Federation forces located in former Soviet and Warsaw Pact lands are transported to unoccupied parts of the Russian Federation instead of being overwritten. The Dutch monarch, PM, special forces, intelligence services, navy, and Air Force are relocated to the Dutch Caribbean instead of being overwritten, and the same situation obtains for the Danish government and services with Greenland. In Asia and the Pacific, things work similarly. Countries wholly occupied by Japan are overwritten by their 1943 versions. But Russian Federation forces in South Sakhalin and the Kuriles are merely teleported to the nearest unoccupied parts of the Russian Federation. Burmese forces to the nearest unoccupied parts of Burma. Residual 1993 Indonesian forces exist in southwest Papua. 1993 US forces in Japan (incl. Okinawa) and Korea are relocated back to Hawaii. In China, the Japanese occupied zone of Manchuria and China Proper is the 1943 version, and that includes any Communist or Nationalist 1943 'behind the lines' base areas, groupings, or operatives. Unoccupied China however, is the 1993 version of the PRC, and the air, ground, and missile strength of the PRC is relocated to unoccupied China. So is the leadership from the Beijing area, including Jiang Zemin and 'retired' Deng Xiaoping, whose only remaining title was chairman of the national contract bridge association. As a bonus for China, the ground and air strength of the Republic of China forces on Taiwan and the offshore islands is also relocated to Sichuan province, as is the ROC leadership, including Lee Teng-hui from Taipei. Both the PRC and ROC navies disappear however. Outside the Japanese perimeter, Oceania and America are all the 1993 versions. Bill Clinton is POTUS. Fidel Castro leads Cuba. ASBs, in addition to all this teleporting and ISOT'ing, also bend the laws of physics in a couple other important ways. They prevent any and all man-made nuclear fission and fusion reactors and reactions from happening, rendering all forms of nuclear weapons, nuclear power plants, and nuclear propulsion instantly, and consistently, ineffective. They also completely negate the harmful effects of radioactivity on all living things. So, how do the big 5 - Clinton, Yeltsin, Major, Jiang Zemin, Mitterand, deal with the sudden surprise appearance of the Axis powers in their midst, with their nuclear tools all suddenly rendered ineffective, and independent minded sovereign states throughout the world from Latin American to Africa, the Middle East, South Asia, and Oceania in place of formerly reliable colonies? How do they deal with the sudden loss of the 1993 continental European and Pacific rim states from the global supply chains and substitute by other means? How do they match their exquisite quality and technology, but numerically small forces against the Axis primitive, but more massive and redundant forces? There is no Mitterand, or Jiang Jhemin, or Yeltsin for that matter. Poof. You have Major on the phone to Clinton seeking permission to use TRIDENT. HUSKY goes in as scheduled with more surety of success because of this thing called the 6th Fleet. As for the MEZs, those will be a problem until Uncle clears the seas of the Axis pirates. One thing is certain, Clinton will be too busy for "bimbo eruptions".
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Post by simon darkshade on Jun 21, 2023 6:51:50 GMT
No use of Trident as nuclear weapons no longer work.
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Post by simon darkshade on Jun 21, 2023 6:55:10 GMT
Another factor at play is that you can’t fight a major war like this with a volunteer army. The anti-draft assumptions just get binned It's friggin' Nazis. Soon to have V-weapons. Bad ole' Holocaustin', British PoW holdin' Nazis. Going back to a draft won't be a problem. Now, of course the US command, in tandem with Allies, will also be seeking shortcuts, to maximize the operational effect of more modern capabilities to hopefully try to end the war through decapitation, and well-aimed shock and awe *before* the struggle goes on long enough to compel a war of mass production and attrition. So they would try to construct an operational design making best use of high-speed, high-altitude, long-range high-capacity and precision strike weapons, cruise missiles, SOF teams and so on against key Reich leadership and C2 as first priority. The Allies almost *have* to do this, because if they accept war on even industrial terms, where the uptime countries are likely all at quantitative *disadvantage*, Spain and Turkey may be overrun and looted by the Axis for their tech and agricultural produce. Heck, maybe the Nazis if they invade through Turkey could establish a land link with Syria, Iraq and Iran using Turkey's modern highway systems to connect with those oil sources and jointly fight the American Great Satan and the British and Israeli Little Satans. The framework/structures for it will need to be built from scratch in Britain and Canada, whereas the US did have the bones of the SSS in place. Yes, they will do that, although it will approach overkill. There are a lot of US missiles alone. No chance of going through Turkey. Although there has been an ISOT, the basic logistics of moving a force through Anatolia against the quite large and well equipped Turks of the early 1990s are still enough to give anyone kittens.
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Post by simon darkshade on Jun 21, 2023 7:05:38 GMT
China was not yet in its manufacturing and exporting stage, nor really possessed of ‘modern’ industry, so they are a maybe. I think this is a bit of an exaggeration, depending on what your values are for 'manufacturing', 'exporting', and 'modern'. Are you under 30 y.o, or under 40 y.o.? Because China was already getting pretty busy in the light and cheap export game like toys and footwear by the late 1980s. And it already had an industrial rust belt that was certainly on par with mid century, WWII and 1950s smokestack heavy manufacturing of coal, steel, and petrochemicals. It was already doing shipbuilding by the 1990s. Not really doing export viable cars or computers, but could of course make locomotives and basically linear adaptations of what had been state of the art 1950s Soviet arms tech. They would lose a lot of their foreign exchange earning light industrial and assembly export plants for cheap stuff with Japanese occupied areas covering their coastal regions or blockading them, but their rust belt of old metallurgical plants and arms plants from the early five year plans would still be around from the 50s and the 60s when they were deliberately building much of their defense infrastructure in the interior in preparation for getting the short end of the stick in WWIII. That level of industrialization will be perfect to provide a nice decade or two hardware and productivity edge over what the 1943 Japanese will be pumping out of their factories in the home islands, Korea, Manchuria, and occupied China. So I think ironically China's legacy 'Vietnam era' industry or ability to reach back to it for warlike purposes is a simpler transition for them than for the USA and possibly Russia. The Chinese just may not be as fantastically positioned to switch back to consumer goods or high tech upon winning the war. But chemically incinerating the Japanese homeland may help their competitive position! I would define them as being on the cutting edge of the 1980s technological picture for 1993, which China at that stage was not. It was out from behind Mao's bamboo curtain, certainly, but at a very early stage of what it would be in the 2000s, particularly as the backlash to Tiananmen Square and related sanctions were still largely in place. No, I am not. I wish I was. That level of 'stuff' isn't hugely convertible to the heavy sinews of a full scale war. Not bad, but nothing on the level that it would become in even 10 years after the PoD. I wouldn't call it a rust belt, but I agree with your interpretation. It was well suited to building 1960s style weapons in large amounts, having proven the capacity to do so. True, apart from the use of the term 'rust belt' (with the term more precisely meaning a *former* industrial area experiencing economic depression and deindustrialisation). They aren't the colossus they would become, nor will they have access to imports of raw materials, but the basic building blocks are undoubtably there. It would, but any war won't last that long, one way or another. To some extent, you are correct. They do have some Achilles' heels as of 1993 that will stop them flexing up effortlessly, which is why I class them as a 'maybe'. There are so many variables at play, such as raw materials, transport, infrastructure, capital, investment and hi tech goodies (including machine tools) that I'm reticent to give them the full stamp of capability. They are second, behind the USA, as the latter has all of the factors in the previous sentence in place as well as the vestiges of the old arms manufacturing complex.
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miletus12
Squadron vice admiral
To get yourself lost, just follow the signs.
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Post by miletus12 on Jun 21, 2023 12:13:19 GMT
No use of Trident as nuclear weapons no longer work. There is a "slight problem". ASBs, in addition to all this teleporting and ISOT'ing, also bend the laws of physics in a couple other important ways. They prevent any and all man-made nuclear fission and fusion reactors and reactions from happening, rendering all forms of nuclear weapons, nuclear power plants, and nuclear propulsion instantly, and consistently, ineffective. They also completely negate the harmful effects of radioactivity on all living things.Then you DIE. Part of life processes is the underlying physics of chemical reactions and also nucleonic reactions (gluonic influence for example.). This becomes Harold Shea, The Compleat Enchanter, "fiction". That also means no ASBs. They cannot LIVE either. Want to hear about the "entanglement problem"? To be close enough for an ISOT or time displacement as in the OP, you have to have two infinite mass rotating cylinders rotating in opposite parallel directions with event horizons that touch with interior universes of almost exact same physical laws, but not quite, so that they can discreetly exist. You would have to precisely balance gravitationally at the zero convergence (intersection) and you would have to be a massless photon (pure information in other words) collection with quark coupling fully functional for that information to displace collaterally.
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Post by simon darkshade on Jun 21, 2023 13:08:34 GMT
Slipping on my natty mod cap for a second, the generally accepted nature of ASB forums and WIs is that the author is allowed to make sweeping hand waves as to the magic required to make things work.
That means that, however accurate the RL physics and science of an interjection, there isn’t scope for it. Unless otherwise said, the OP gets to dictate the little contrivances necessary to get their scenario to ‘work’. This in a way is similar to one of Steve’s threads from last year where you kept going on about two coexisting things causing a massive explosion, to simplify things majorly.
Only problem is that it is ASB and fiction to boot. If a handwave is implied, then it needs to be worked with. If that isn’t possible, then the next best thing is to phrase criticism in a slightly more open manner than “It can’t exist according to the physical laws of our universe. End of discussion!” Again, that is a deliberate simplification to make the point rather than a mischaracterisation of meaning.
Anything in ASB is 99% of the time fiction to begin with, so it gets cut some slack inherently.
/Mod hat off
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miletus12
Squadron vice admiral
To get yourself lost, just follow the signs.
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Post by miletus12 on Jun 21, 2023 13:24:59 GMT
Shrug. (^^^)
Let me think of another way to solve the problem.
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miletus12
Squadron vice admiral
To get yourself lost, just follow the signs.
Posts: 7,470
Likes: 4,287
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Post by miletus12 on Jun 21, 2023 13:46:16 GMT
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stevep
Fleet admiral
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Post by stevep on Jun 21, 2023 15:12:56 GMT
Another factor at play is that you can’t fight a major war like this with a volunteer army. The anti-draft assumptions just get binned It's friggin' Nazis. Soon to have V-weapons. Bad ole' Holocaustin', British PoW holdin' Nazis. Going back to a draft won't be a problem. Now, of course the US command, in tandem with Allies, will also be seeking shortcuts, to maximize the operational effect of more modern capabilities to hopefully try to end the war through decapitation, and well-aimed shock and awe *before* the struggle goes on long enough to compel a war of mass production and attrition. So they would try to construct an operational design making best use of high-speed, high-altitude, long-range high-capacity and precision strike weapons, cruise missiles, SOF teams and so on against key Reich leadership and C2 as first priority. The Allies almost *have* to do this, because if they accept war on even industrial terms, where the uptime countries are likely all at quantitative *disadvantage*, Spain and Turkey may be overrun and looted by the Axis for their tech and agricultural produce. Heck, maybe the Nazis if they invade through Turkey could establish a land link with Syria, Iraq and Iran using Turkey's modern highway systems to connect with those oil sources and jointly fight the American Great Satan and the British and Israeli Little Satans.
As well as short cuts via high tech approaches sheer bloody firepower could well provide a role. Good if you can get accurate attacks on key targets such as synthetic oil plants, power stations, transport choke-points etc. However using something like B-52's based operating from the UK would be pretty much unstoppable for the 3rd Reich as could do a massive amount of damage. Probably other lighter 'tactical' bombers.
Spain might be in danger but the Germans would have to extract forces from somewhere, such as an eastern front that's now in turmoil or the perceived need to defend a faltering Italy, to get past the Pyrenees and also the allies can relatively easily reinforce Spain. Turkey as Simon says is a much tougher target and the Germans are likely to be seriously mauled if they try anything there. Plus with the 43 Balkans as their operating base, with very limited logistical infrastructure and a lot of partisan activity getting a large force there to support an attack would also be an issue.
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Post by raharris1973 on Jun 22, 2023 2:35:25 GMT
A shame we didn't have 'the Flying Ginsu' yet. But you figure an accurately targeted trident, with no fissile payload - (uranium, plutonium is just weight/ballast) makes for a reliable 'Godrod'?
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