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Post by raharris1973 on Jun 6, 2023 0:53:36 GMT
Two months after the passage of the Tydings-McDuffie act schduling Filipino independence for the mid-40s, in May 1934, during the 4th of July holiday, after a cone of light envelops the Philippines, the archipelago is replaced by a version of itself from exactly 20 years later, July 4th, 1954.
No non-Filipino people have arrived back with the 1954 Philippines, no Americans, no third country nationals, but all the property and equipment, including the military and naval equipment at Clark Airfield and Subic Bay, are left behind and now exist in the world 1934.
So we have the 1954 Philippines and Filipinos, a developing country, but one possessing plenty of interesting 'news from the future' and samples of future technology, military and civilian, living in the world of 1934. What happens next?
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jun 6, 2023 13:08:53 GMT
Two months after the passage of the Tydings-McDuffie act schduling Filipino independence for the mid-40s, in May 1934, during the 4th of July holiday, after a cone of light envelops the Philippines, the archipelago is replaced by a version of itself from exactly 20 years later, July 4th, 1954. No non-Filipino people have arrived back with the 1954 Philippines, no Americans, no third country nationals, but all the property and equipment, including the military and naval equipment at Clark Airfield and Subic Bay, are left behind and now exist in the world 1934. So we have the 1954 Philippines and Filipinos, a developing country, but one possessing plenty of interesting 'news from the future' and samples of future technology, military and civilian, living in the world of 1934. What happens next?
That is going to be interesting. Possible coup in Germany? Denial in Japan of their plans for China and then the rest of SE Asia? Confusion around the rest of the world as well. In the USSR its after Stalin's death but before his denouncement by Khrushchev so what the UTers will say could be affected by this but the endurance of the Soviets during WWII and the extension of their borders and zone of control afterwards will raise eyebrows. Also you have the start of decolonization of the western empires. Not to mention the existence of nuclear weapons - of which there might be some in the US bases on the islands? Plus you will have the early stages of the cold war including the communists taking over China, the Korean war and the Berlin blockade.
The 34 US is going to make a claim for all the military equipment left behind by their UT counter-parts and will probably win that case but I suspect at least some technical stuff in terms of books and the like will be retained by the Philippines. Their libraries are likely to be a great source of interest for everybody anyway as they will include information in so many areas.
Not sure what the stance of both the western powers and the USSR - although the latter is relatively unimportant at this stage on the existing Jewish settlement in Palestine and what they hear happened to it. News of the genocide could well make a lot of European Jews, at least those in a position to economically and politically, to leave mainland Europe but what areas would be open to them at this time period?
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gillan1220
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Post by gillan1220 on Jun 6, 2023 14:44:51 GMT
1954 UT technology will amaze the DT USA. The War Department will be surprised why the USAAF/USAAC is now the USAF. Suddenly, jet fighters are possible which in 1934 was in the realm of science fiction. The Germans, Japanese,British, and the Soviets would want their hands on those. Not to mention the existence of nuclear weapons - of which there might be some in the US bases on the islands? Plus you will have the early stages of the cold war including the communists taking over China, the Korean war and the Berlin blockade.
The nuclear weapons in the Philippines were only deployed in the late 1950s as part of Eisenhower's repositioning of nuclear weapons in Asia. The nukes were stored in Subic. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jun 6, 2023 20:53:35 GMT
1954 UT technology will amaze the DT USA. The War Department will be surprised why the USAAF/USAAC is now the USAF. Suddenly, jet fighters are possible which in 1934 was in the realm of science fiction. The Germans, Japanese,British, and the Soviets would want their hands on those. Not to mention the existence of nuclear weapons - of which there might be some in the US bases on the islands? Plus you will have the early stages of the cold war including the communists taking over China, the Korean war and the Berlin blockade.
The nuclear weapons in the Philippines were only deployed in the late 1950s as part of Eisenhower's repositioning of nuclear weapons in Asia. The nukes were stored in Subic.
OK thanks. Wasn't sure but had suspected there might be tactical nukes in the region after the Korean war but obviously not that early.
Not just jets as a lot of other stuff might be very attractive, including advances in antibiotics, early computing etc.
Also it could have some interesting affects on the careers of some generals among other characters. MacArthur might have a mixed press with disaster at the Philippines, coupled with his dismissal after arguing for nuking mainland China countered by his success at the Inchon landings. What 1934 US will think of Eisenhower being President in a couple of decades?
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Post by raharris1973 on Jun 6, 2023 23:42:15 GMT
What 1934 US will think of Eisenhower being President in a couple of decades? 1934 Americans will be like, whatzisname again? "Isaac Hoover?" "Icetower?" "I is a how?" "I is a what?" "Oh, Eisenhower....and he was one of ours? Sounds more like a beer than a President." |
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gillan1220
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Post by gillan1220 on Jun 7, 2023 3:16:30 GMT
OK thanks. Wasn't sure but had suspected there might be tactical nukes in the region after the Korean war but obviously not that early.
Not just jets as a lot of other stuff might be very attractive, including advances in antibiotics, early computing etc.
Also it could have some interesting affects on the careers of some generals among other characters. MacArthur might have a mixed press with disaster at the Philippines, coupled with his dismissal after arguing for nuking mainland China countered by his success at the Inchon landings. What 1934 US will think of Eisenhower being President in a couple of decades? For tactical nukes, this is what I found regarding future President Eisenhower's deployment of said weapons in the Far East: Norris, R. S., Arkin, W. M., & Burr, W. (1999). Where They Were. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 55(6), 26–35. doi.org/10.2968/055006011 Excerpt: Whatever 1954 technology in the Philippines is will attract every 1934 major world power. Interestingly enough, Eisenhower as a general would only be deployed to the Philippines in 1935 before he was relieved by MacArthur 1939. Here's some pictures of them: Photo: General Douglas MacArthur, Major Dwight D. Eisenhower, and Captain T.J. Davis are shown in formal dress at Malacañan Palace in Manila, The Philippines, 1935.
Photo: Luncheon given in honor of Dwight Eisenhower by Philippine President Manuel Quezon.
L to R: General Douglas MacArthur, Mamie Eisenhower, Manuel Quezon, and Dwight D. Eisenhower, Manila, Philippines. 1939 For one, the FDR administration would probably be shocked knowing how Japan will blitz through Southeast Asia after the attack on Pearl Harbor. This would probably mean the U.S. will build more defenses of Hawaii to mitigate the OTL damage. MacArthur will probably be seen just like OTL. A guy who is known to buttheads with FDR and later future President Harry Truman. I think the War Department will be horrified that MacArthur wanted to nuke the Sino-Korean border. Korea in 1934 was rarely heard of in the U.S., since it was still a Japanese colony. I think what will surprise the U.S. government and the American people as a whole is that the USSR will be branded as the next enemy by 1947. 1934 Americans will be like, whatzisname again? "Isaac Hoover?" "Icetower?" "I is a how?" "I is a what?" "Oh, Eisenhower....and he was one of ours? Sounds more like a beer than a President." Considering Ike was just a general about to start his deployment in the Philippines in 1934 (see pics above). In a twist of fate, Ike would also be the first U.S. President to visit the Philippines in 1960. US Pres.Eisenhower in the Philippines 1960 |
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Post by raharris1973 on Jun 8, 2023 1:10:29 GMT
I think from a military/naval logic point of view, those in the Japanese armed forces who, even with insight into the future want to go for strategic expansionism and independence - just to 'get it right' this time, their best and most urgent move would be to try to invade and overwhelm the Philippines. The Philippines, if conquered, can be a source of better weapons and some other technologies, and if left alone is too much of a threat and can only grow and spread bad publicity about Japan and help Japan's enemies. Not saying Japan would win, although it would likely have numerical advantages making them at least a serious menace, even if tactical memories and superior weaponry plus guerrilla skills could make the Filipinos prevail.
The transported in time Filipinos, while not yielding up independence, would invite the 1934 Americans to reoccupy their bases in the country to reestablish alliance ties and a hedge against Japan and any potential unknown emerging threats. They would also try to negotiate continued access to the US market for exports. The Filipinos would be willing to share US tech back with the Americans. The 1934 Americans, who just passed planned independence and are focused climbing out of the Depression, won't obnoxiously try to rescind Filipino independence, especially when they see what the Filipinos have done with the place.
However, actually sending fleet elements from the Pacific fleet to replace the Asiatic fleet (at least all its 1934 and 1954 personnel, officers and sailors- even if not unmanned 1954 'ghost ships') could be something 1934 USA decides is just too expensive to do. And sugar growing states could argue that America's market access obligation to the now independent Philippines is over with independence. That would all be a matter for negotiation. And of course the Filipinos can also initiate outreach for defense cooperation and tech sharing with the British Empire, Dutch, French, and Nationalist Chinese as well as the USA.
However, isolationist American and public inclinations may be towards the Philippines and western Pacific commitments, in an unstressed situation in 1934. 'news from the future' will make the Americans, and everybody else, cast a wary eye on the Japanese. The Carl Vinson naval bill of 1934 will be fully funded, and doubled or trebled, with the Americans trying to incorporate reverse engineered tech recovered from the Filipinos into it where possible. Nobody will bother with the London Naval Treaty attempts of 1935.
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Post by raharris1973 on Jun 8, 2023 2:00:43 GMT
The 34 US is going to make a claim for all the military equipment left behind by their UT counter-parts and will probably win that case but I suspect at least some technical stuff in terms of books and the like will be retained by the Philippines. You're describing it potentially like it is merely a court case and the Philippines unilaterally hands all the military property over because that is what's 'legal', but I think there's a good bit more to it than that. It would ultimate be a *political* bargain with each side, the Filipino and American, each pursuing its own interests, using its advantages, and trying to get the best deal to settle on. The Filipinos will have aims of getting their independence recognized (probably not hard) having adequate near term defenses against possible Japanese moves- fairly possible with the US equipment on hand, much harder without it, and long term economic and security ties with the US to stay competitive with Japan and later China in future decades as technology inevitably starts leaking globally (harder and requiring US consent). The Americans will want to maximize their exclusive technical gain and minimize their exposure to cost and risk and obligation to the Philippines. The Philippines will have the bargaining advantage of knowing future history, but that will be a rapidly wasting asset once citizens get out of the country or spies get into the country revealing easy to find outlines of history, and as the timeline diverges from OTL, simply based on the presence of the advanced Philippines. It will also have the bargaining advantage of having physical possession at the moment of the most technologically advanced weapons, machines and prototypes, and certain types of facilities in the world, and some technical documentation. It will have the disadvantage of being dangerously placed to a dangerous Japan, and with a currency and foreign currency reserves (1954 Filipino and foreign money)the rest of the world doesn't recognize. The Americans will have the bargaining advantage of being America, a huge market, population, and natural resource source with great potential, and being in a geographically non-dangerous neighborhood, and in bargaining, they can try to bluff the Filipino's use of future history warning of warlike dangers to come, saying they don't believe it. America has the bargaining disadvantage of just starting to climb out of the bottom of the Depression. |
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gillan1220
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Post by gillan1220 on Jun 8, 2023 2:28:18 GMT
I think from a military/naval logic point of view, those in the Japanese armed forces who, even with insight into the future want to go for strategic expansionism and independence - just to 'get it right' this time, their best and most urgent move would be to try to invade and overwhelm the Philippines. The Philippines, if conquered, can be a source of better weapons and some other technologies, and if left alone is too much of a threat and can only grow and spread bad publicity about Japan and help Japan's enemies. Not saying Japan would win, although it would likely have numerical advantages making them at least a serious menace, even if tactical memories and superior weaponry plus guerrilla skills could make the Filipinos prevail. The Filipinos have the advantage though. M-14s, P-51 mustangs, Sherman tanks, M24 Chaffees, and the fact of foreknowledge and DT IJA equipment is obsolete in 1954. Unfortunately, the Filipinos would not be able to use what USAF jets and warships leftover in Clark and Subic because they are not trained to do so. The first F-85 Sabers, the F-86F for the Philippine Air Force, only arrived IOTL 1957. However, the uptime Philippine Navy is not in the position to take on the IJN. The Philippine Navy in 1954 was composed of WWII-era patrol boats and minelayers which were sueplus from the United States. Some of these ships were only decommissioned by 2020-2021.The heavier Gleaves, Fletcher, and Allan M. Sumner-class destroyers as well as what carrier is in dock in Subic is useless since the Filipinos are not trained. The transported in time Filipinos, while not yielding up independence, would invite the 1934 Americans to reoccupy their bases in the country to reestablish alliance ties and a hedge against Japan and any potential unknown emerging threats. They would also try to negotiate continued access to the US market for exports. The Filipinos would be willing to share US tech back with the Americans. The 1934 Americans, who just passed planned independence and are focused climbing out of the Depression, won't obnoxiously try to rescind Filipino independence, especially when they see what the Filipinos have done with the place. The best move for the UT Philippines is to ally with DT America and share what knowledge happened in the past 20 years of the ISOT. However, actually sending fleet elements from the Pacific fleet to replace the Asiatic fleet (at least all its 1934 and 1954 personnel, officers and sailors- even if not unmanned 1954 'ghost ships') could be something 1934 USA decides is just too expensive to do. And sugar growing states could argue that America's market access obligation to the now independent Philippines is over with independence. That would all be a matter for negotiation. And of course the Filipinos can also initiate outreach for defense cooperation and tech sharing with the British Empire, Dutch, French, and Nationalist Chinese as well as the USA. Regarding the abandoned UT warships and aircraft in Clark and Subic, I'm sure the UT U.S. would want it back. It is American property after all and the War Department would definitely want to study it. It might advance the USN faster than DT OTL. However, isolationist American and public inclinations may be towards the Philippines and western Pacific commitments, in an unstressed situation in 1934. 'news from the future' will make the Americans, and everybody else, cast a wary eye on the Japanese. The Carl Vinson naval bill of 1934 will be fully funded, and doubled or trebled, with the Americans trying to incorporate reverse engineered tech recovered from the Filipinos into it where possible. Nobody will bother with the London Naval Treaty attempts of 1935. For all intents, the U.S. government and even the American people will be wary of the Japanese. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jun 8, 2023 11:54:18 GMT
I think from a military/naval logic point of view, those in the Japanese armed forces who, even with insight into the future want to go for strategic expansionism and independence - just to 'get it right' this time, their best and most urgent move would be to try to invade and overwhelm the Philippines. The Philippines, if conquered, can be a source of better weapons and some other technologies, and if left alone is too much of a threat and can only grow and spread bad publicity about Japan and help Japan's enemies. Not saying Japan would win, although it would likely have numerical advantages making them at least a serious menace, even if tactical memories and superior weaponry plus guerrilla skills could make the Filipinos prevail. The transported in time Filipinos, while not yielding up independence, would invite the 1934 Americans to reoccupy their bases in the country to reestablish alliance ties and a hedge against Japan and any potential unknown emerging threats. They would also try to negotiate continued access to the US market for exports. The Filipinos would be willing to share US tech back with the Americans. The 1934 Americans, who just passed planned independence and are focused climbing out of the Depression, won't obnoxiously try to rescind Filipino independence, especially when they see what the Filipinos have done with the place. However, actually sending fleet elements from the Pacific fleet to replace the Asiatic fleet (at least all its 1934 and 1954 personnel, officers and sailors- even if not unmanned 1954 'ghost ships') could be something 1934 USA decides is just too expensive to do. And sugar growing states could argue that America's market access obligation to the now independent Philippines is over with independence. That would all be a matter for negotiation. And of course the Filipinos can also initiate outreach for defense cooperation and tech sharing with the British Empire, Dutch, French, and Nationalist Chinese as well as the USA. However, isolationist American and public inclinations may be towards the Philippines and western Pacific commitments, in an unstressed situation in 1934. 'news from the future' will make the Americans, and everybody else, cast a wary eye on the Japanese. The Carl Vinson naval bill of 1934 will be fully funded, and doubled or trebled, with the Americans trying to incorporate reverse engineered tech recovered from the Filipinos into it where possible. Nobody will bother with the London Naval Treaty attempts of 1935.
No doubt some very powerful groups in Japan will want to go such a route but its likely to prompt an international reaction, not just from the Philippines and the US, both because of the open breach of international law and what the down-timers learn about 'future' history. Plus Japan itself is also having big problems with the depression and is militarily a lot weaker than in 1939, let alone 1941 so it would be a big ask for them. OTL they got away with the annexation of Manchuria because it was already pretty much a Japanese colony and also with the recession so deep and the US being especially isolationist and outside the LoNs very little could be done.
For the US I think they will feel obliged to intervene, both because of what they learn from the future and also simply that to them the Philippines are still a colony and they will also want that 'American' equipment, even if they might have problems operating it. A lot of the newer stuff especially will need spares very quickly and many of the more complex items could be beyond current American - or any other 1934 nation's - capacity to produce without a lot of work. China will want to avoid what they hear about invasion and hence willing to offer support as much as they can and also wish to regain Manchuria and Taiwan. Britain is likely also to be willing to offer some support and probably France, especially if they can get security agreements with other nations. [Although they might prioritize removing the Hitler problem, probably with aid from some other countries such as Poland, Belgium and possibly Czechoslovakia and some aid from Britain.
In terms of trade I did read that the US did impose unequal treaties on the Philippines after independence, with free access to Filipino markets but tariffs against primary exports from the country. [Or possibly that was the plan being discussed in the late 30's after the initial promise of independence]. Likely this would still occur here if Japan attacks the islands as the US will have a much stronger hand in terms of the Philippines as they probably won't be able to fight off Japan without external aid and the easiest source for that could well be the US.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jun 8, 2023 12:31:31 GMT
The 34 US is going to make a claim for all the military equipment left behind by their UT counter-parts and will probably win that case but I suspect at least some technical stuff in terms of books and the like will be retained by the Philippines. You're describing it potentially like it is merely a court case and the Philippines unilaterally hands all the military property over because that is what's 'legal', but I think there's a good bit more to it than that. It would ultimate be a *political* bargain with each side, the Filipino and American, each pursuing its own interests, using its advantages, and trying to get the best deal to settle on. The Filipinos will have aims of getting their independence recognized (probably not hard) having adequate near term defenses against possible Japanese moves- fairly possible with the US equipment on hand, much harder without it, and long term economic and security ties with the US to stay competitive with Japan and later China in future decades as technology inevitably starts leaking globally (harder and requiring US consent). The Americans will want to maximize their exclusive technical gain and minimize their exposure to cost and risk and obligation to the Philippines. The Philippines will have the bargaining advantage of knowing future history, but that will be a rapidly wasting asset once citizens get out of the country or spies get into the country revealing easy to find outlines of history, and as the timeline diverges from OTL, simply based on the presence of the advanced Philippines. It will also have the bargaining advantage of having physical possession at the moment of the most technologically advanced weapons, machines and prototypes, and certain types of facilities in the world, and some technical documentation. It will have the disadvantage of being dangerously placed to a dangerous Japan, and with a currency and foreign currency reserves (1954 Filipino and foreign money)the rest of the world doesn't recognize. The Americans will have the bargaining advantage of being America, a huge market, population, and natural resource source with great potential, and being in a geographically non-dangerous neighborhood, and in bargaining, they can try to bluff the Filipino's use of future history warning of warlike dangers to come, saying they don't believe it. America has the bargaining disadvantage of just starting to climb out of the bottom of the Depression.
Well the US will make a 'legal' claim but they will have a lot of political and economic power plus if Japan does something rash then they have a strong argument for the Philippines needing American protection. I think because it will desire US support and it will have limited capacity to use much of the equipment the Philippines will be happy to make a deal but a lot of knowledge and probably smaller civilian technology related items are more likely to be maintained and also leak to other nations. I think even the US will initially anyway have little capacity for operating a lot of the more advanced military equipment anyway, at least for a few years.
The future knowledge of political events especially will fade fairly quickly because the butterflies are likely to be huge and its likely to cause a lot of chaos.
Also if there was war with Japan it could help the US come out of depression completely much earlier, at least if handled correctly.
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spiegel
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Post by spiegel on Jun 22, 2023 10:57:05 GMT
so what are the tech in philippines in 1954 in military.
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gillan1220
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Post by gillan1220 on Jun 22, 2023 15:01:01 GMT
so what are the tech in philippines in 1954 in military. From what I can find: Ramon Magsaysay (current President at the time of ISOT on July 4, 1954 to July 4, 1934) Previous administrations after 1946: Sergio Osmena: Manuel A. Roxas: Elpidio Quirino |
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spiegel
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Post by spiegel on Jun 23, 2023 3:43:00 GMT
so what are the tech in philippines in 1954 in military. From what I can find: Ramon Magsaysay (current President at the time of ISOT on July 4, 1954 to July 4, 1934) Previous administrations after 1946: Sergio Osmena: Manuel A. Roxas: Elpidio Quirino And their Small Arms and Weaponry hope they had M14 Battle Rifles before M16's come to play in 60s |
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gillan1220
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Post by gillan1220 on Jun 23, 2023 4:35:56 GMT
From what I can find: Ramon Magsaysay (current President at the time of ISOT on July 4, 1954 to July 4, 1934) Previous administrations after 1946: Sergio Osmena: Manuel A. Roxas: Elpidio Quirino And their Small Arms and Weaponry hope they had M14 Battle Rifles before M16's come to play in 60s The small arms would be WWII surplus and possibly hundreds of M14s. The M16 would only be issued to the AFP in 1966. |
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