lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Feb 6, 2016 21:26:15 GMT
Lets say that in 2018 in the Kaliningrad Oblast a pro-western party gains the most seat to claim a majority, in responds the Russian government outlaws the party for fear that the new pro-western party wants Kaliningrad to become interdependent from Russia, this outlawing escalates, what will happen next.
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spanishspy
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Post by spanishspy on Feb 7, 2016 19:14:02 GMT
Assuming the above, if initial forces stationed in the oblast are defeated by the rebels, the Russian government is going to have a hard time conquering it back. NATO will not let the Russians fly over the Baltics, and naval access via St. Petersburg in the Baltic Sea will also be confounded.
The Russians may have no choice than to let the oblast go, which will probably rename itself Konigsberg, its old name, or perhaps something harkening back to Prussia. If this is the case, the US and the other Western military powers will acquire the Russian nukes in the newly independent country.
Alternatively, if the Russians decide to invade Lithuania through Belarus to get to Kaliningrad, it is nothing short of World War III.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Feb 7, 2016 19:17:12 GMT
Assuming the above, if initial forces stationed in the oblast are defeated by the rebels, the Russian government is going to have a hard time conquering it back. NATO will not let the Russians fly over the Baltics, and naval access via St. Petersburg in the Baltic Sea will also be confounded. The Russians will probably accuse the West from backing the rebels like the West has accused the Russian of backing the rebels in Ukraine. |
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Post by eurowatch on Feb 7, 2016 20:29:45 GMT
Assuming the above, if initial forces stationed in the oblast are defeated by the rebels, the Russian government is going to have a hard time conquering it back. NATO will not let the Russians fly over the Baltics, and naval access via St. Petersburg in the Baltic Sea will also be confounded. The Russians will probably accuse the West from backing the rebels like the West has accused the Russian of backing the rebels in Ukraine. They do say that what goes around comes around. |
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Feb 7, 2016 20:37:19 GMT
The Russians will probably accuse the West from backing the rebels like the West has accused the Russian of backing the rebels in Ukraine. They do say that what goes around comes around. But the Russians are not going to give up Kaliningrad with out a fight, this is not going to be their Ukraine. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Feb 12, 2016 12:12:04 GMT
Guys
That would be very hairy. Especially presuming you had Putin still in charge of Russia as his exaggerated nationalism would make it impossible for him to accept such a loss of face. Some sort of conflict would be almost certain. Unless the west backed down and allowed Russian forces to cross Lithuania to crush the rebels. Which might be possible but would be unlikely.
I can't see the break-away doing any renaming which relates to the former Prussia and Germany presence. The area is overwhelmingly Russia in nature and they would almost certain see themselves as restoring Russia to democracy rather than any link with a prior, foreign state. Especially since Moscow would relate any such move to Nazism, which is ironic since Putin's regime is far more fascist in nature than communist.
Steve
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Feb 12, 2016 12:48:32 GMT
Guys That would be very hairy. Especially presuming you had Putin still in charge of Russia as his exaggerated nationalism would make it impossible for him to accept such a loss of face. Some sort of conflict would be almost certain. Unless the west backed down and allowed Russian forces to cross Lithuania to crush the rebels. Which might be possible but would be unlikely. I can't see the break-away doing any renaming which relates to the former Prussia and Germany presence. The area is overwhelmingly Russia in nature and they would almost certain see themselves as restoring Russia to democracy rather than any link with a prior, foreign state. Especially since Moscow would relate any such move to Nazism, which is ironic since Putin's regime is far more fascist in nature than communist. Steve Putin relates everything against him as Nazism, anything that happens in the Kaliningrad Oblast will be blamed on Germany and Poland. |
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yanez
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Post by yanez on Mar 9, 2016 19:51:25 GMT
Lets say that in 2018 in the Kaliningrad Oblast a pro-western party gains the most seat to claim a majority, in responds the Russian government outlaws the party for fear that the new pro-western party wants Kaliningrad to become interdependent from Russia, this outlawing escalates, what will happen next. While that's a very interesting idea, I don't think a revolution in Kaliningrad Oblast is very probable honestly: the area seems to be doing well economically (being an ice free port and a Special Economic Zone with low taxes) and the population is pretty homgenously Russian. Even assuming somehow a pro-western party formed there and enjoyed great popularity, there is a very heavy military presence there (11.000 in 2009 according to Wiki), so any uprising would probably be immediatly quashed. The West would protest, but could not practically support the rebels without risking WW3. As others have said, it would also be easy for the Russian leader to portray separatists as "Nazists" or even "Teutonic Knights"... The only chance is part of the military siding with the rebels, but that would mean that also the rest of Russia is on the brink of civil war, and that would be quite another can of worms. |
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futurist
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Post by futurist on Jun 20, 2016 4:57:57 GMT
Guys That would be very hairy. Especially presuming you had Putin still in charge of Russia as his exaggerated nationalism would make it impossible for him to accept such a loss of face. Some sort of conflict would be almost certain. Unless the west backed down and allowed Russian forces to cross Lithuania to crush the rebels. Which might be possible but would be unlikely. I can't see the break-away doing any renaming which relates to the former Prussia and Germany presence. The area is overwhelmingly Russia in nature and they would almost certain see themselves as restoring Russia to democracy rather than any link with a prior, foreign state. Especially since Moscow would relate any such move to Nazism, which is ironic since Putin's regime is far more fascist in nature than communist. Steve So, is Kaliningrad Oblast likely to become a Russian Taiwan in this scenario? |
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Jun 21, 2016 17:52:44 GMT
Guys That would be very hairy. Especially presuming you had Putin still in charge of Russia as his exaggerated nationalism would make it impossible for him to accept such a loss of face. Some sort of conflict would be almost certain. Unless the west backed down and allowed Russian forces to cross Lithuania to crush the rebels. Which might be possible but would be unlikely. I can't see the break-away doing any renaming which relates to the former Prussia and Germany presence. The area is overwhelmingly Russia in nature and they would almost certain see themselves as restoring Russia to democracy rather than any link with a prior, foreign state. Especially since Moscow would relate any such move to Nazism, which is ironic since Putin's regime is far more fascist in nature than communist. Steve So, is Kaliningrad Oblast likely to become a Russian Taiwan in this scenario? Bordered with Poland a anti-Russian country who will take up the mantle of protection them. |
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spanishspy
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Post by spanishspy on Jun 22, 2016 14:30:07 GMT
One potential government for an Independent Kaliningrad would be a restored monarchy (albeit a constitutional one) which holds the Revolution was illegitimate. If that is the case, it would likely be renamed Konigsberg.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Jun 22, 2016 14:49:40 GMT
One potential government for an Independent Kaliningrad would be a restored monarchy (albeit a constitutional one) which holds the Revolution was illegitimate. If that is the case, it would likely be renamed Konigsberg. And who is crazy enough and allowed to be the monarch of a independent Kaliningrad Oblast or what ever it will be called. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jun 22, 2016 15:54:10 GMT
One potential government for an Independent Kaliningrad would be a restored monarchy (albeit a constitutional one) which holds the Revolution was illegitimate. If that is the case, it would likely be renamed Konigsberg. I think that renaming would only be the case if the new monarch was German, which I think would go down well with no one, including most of the occupants of the enclave. If you had a member of the Romanov's that would cause less general resentment but its unlikely to be popular in Poland and is going to be explosive to Putin and much of the Russian population. By stating that the [November] revolution is illegitimate that's challenging their entire status. I can't see a monarchy being suitable as an option. The best bet is if Putin is persuaded not to invade and its a bearly recognised fringe 'state' with only limited international recognition. For that reason I can't see it being considered for EU or NATO membership. |
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Jun 22, 2016 16:03:34 GMT
One potential government for an Independent Kaliningrad would be a restored monarchy (albeit a constitutional one) which holds the Revolution was illegitimate. If that is the case, it would likely be renamed Konigsberg. If you had a member of the Romanov's that would cause less general resentment but its unlikely to be popular in Poland and is going to be explosive to Putin and much of the Russian population. By stating that the [November] revolution is illegitimate that's challenging their entire status. These days the Romanovs are not what they used to be and are not good candidate for what ever throne thet might be offerd. |
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futurist
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Post by futurist on Jun 23, 2016 0:46:33 GMT
One potential government for an Independent Kaliningrad would be a restored monarchy (albeit a constitutional one) which holds the Revolution was illegitimate. If that is the case, it would likely be renamed Konigsberg. I think that renaming would only be the case if the new monarch was German, which I think would go down well with no one, including most of the occupants of the enclave. If you had a member of the Romanov's that would cause less general resentment but its unlikely to be popular in Poland and is going to be explosive to Putin and much of the Russian population. By stating that the [November] revolution is illegitimate that's challenging their entire status. I can't see a monarchy being suitable as an option. The best bet is if Putin is persuaded not to invade and its a bearly recognised fringe 'state' with only limited international recognition. For that reason I can't see it being considered for EU or NATO membership. Here's an interesting question, though--if the Bolshevik Revolution is illegitimate, then does that also mean that the federalization of the lands of the former Russian Empire as well as the 1991 secession of large parts of the former Russian Empire are likewise illegitimate? Indeed, any thoughts on this? |
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