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Post by Max Sinister on May 13, 2023 22:01:47 GMT
While I'm still no real Kohl fan, I had the idea and wanted to share it. As said elsewhere, we don't have many TLs centered on post-war German politics. The federal election in 1976 was very close - Helmut Schmidt's Social Democrats and Genscher's Liberals had a majority of just ten. Could have swung easily the other way round. WI it did? IOTL, Franz Josef Strauß afterwards mocked Kohl for losing, claimed he'd write a book as an old man "I've been candidate for chancellor for 40 years". Yeah, he always had a big mouth. No wonder Kohl didn't like him too much afterwards and didn't give him a ministry in 1982/83. But WI Kohl had won in 1976? Just some keywords. Strauß as Exterior, Defense Carstens, Diepgen still elected Spiegel angry earlier. Greens stronger in 1979/80. Euro Parliament even? Oil crisis tricky. Reagan, Thatcher. Vogel loses in 1980. Union/FDP since then? Left FDP may not split off. Experiments with Red-Green in Hesse. Hamburg? 1984 Greens in, FDP out. Lafo Saarland 1981? Rau minority chancellor? Petra Kelly Exterior, Antje Vollmer Development Aid. Chernobyl saves him in 1988 against Strauß. Greens demand to leave the NATO after the end of the Cold War. Schäuble wins in 1991/92 with Möllemann. Who drives the FDP to the right. Norway in EU? Private TV boom. East German chancellors change pretty fast: de Maizière, Krause, Diestel, Milbradt. CSU, FDP help their eastern counterparts. 1994, Thierse's SPD is strongest party, but CDU/FDP/DSU governs. No Strauß credit: GDR goes broke earlier! Pensioners allowed to emigrate from East Germany. Criminals sent to the West as well. Rau gives some (how much?), but too little. Political corruption scandal breaks Möllemann's neck. 1996, Red-Green wins, forming Schröder-Fischer coalition.
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Post by Max Sinister on May 14, 2023 6:23:36 GMT
Correction: The GDR got the credit (1000 million Deutschmarks) in 1983 already, so this won't change, including the consequences. On the German AltHist wiki, I've created a page for TTL. |
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on May 14, 2023 7:37:23 GMT
Correction: The GDR got the credit (1000 million Deutschmarks) in 1983 already, so this won't change, including the consequences. On the German AltHist wiki, I've created a page for TTL. Off topic i think but something that would be intersting if it ever comes to light, in a German TV series on Netflix called Kleo which revolves around documents that later shows there was a secret agreement between US President Ronald Reagan and East German leader Erich Honecker, that arranged for the United States giving financial aid to the GDR to keep it stable enough to justify the existence of the two Germanies and Washington's Cold War policy. Would that be possible here, but instead between Helmut Kohl and Erich Honecker. |
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michelvan
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Post by michelvan on May 14, 2023 9:35:46 GMT
Now it was close for Kohl in 1976 win election, had FDP join CDU/CSU coalition...
The German stagnation start earlier
I mean with this is the Conservative politic of Kohl, just rule, no changes, no Innovation and allot canceled programs.
(this during period Kohl and Merkel, lead to hell of problems that Germany endure today)
The French will have issue with Kohl, as under Helmut Schmidt they had cooperative partner.
Fact french president Valéry Giscard d’Estaing was personal friend of Helmut Schmidt and had issue with reserved Kohl, (like Mitterand)
This could let to some delays in development of EU
Now how would be Kohl Government after 1976?
Not much it would like 1982, but he would face Terror Sommer of 1977 with murder of Hanns Martin Schleyer.
This "Deutschen Herbst" was the major political crisis in West Germany history.
had Kohl make a botch-up of this crisis he would face a constructive vote of no confidence by German Parlament.
Here Helmut Schmidt could return as Chancellor !
Let assume kohl manage the "Deutschen Herbst" and stay in Power.
the Billion Mark credit to east Germany will happen either end 1970s or 1980s.
Certain he will reelected in 1980 and 1983, but here his popularity will drop.
because Kohl cabinet pushed through several controversial plans.
Like instalment of NATO midrange missiles.
His action after Chernobyl disaster, that let to end of Germany Nuclear industry (with gravedigger Merkel)
Now for 1987 election Kohl will face problem he is Chancellor since 11 years.
and his politic made bad blood in CDU and CSU...
In OTL he face internal opposition and external with Die Grünen and disloyal CDU members who founded far right Die Republikaner
What not for reunification of Germany, that make him the Over Chancellor of German history.
But here is 1987, two years to events that let implode East Germany.
Here internal Opposition of CDU under Heiner Geißler, will ouster Kohl and replace him with Lothar Späth as new Chancellor.
Now imagine how Lothar Späth end up in German history book after 1989...
He is competent Manager and politician with connection to East Germany,
Except the litte „Traumschiff-Affäre“ were he resign from all his political post in 1991.
The CDU has to take new leader and Chancellor: Wolfgang Schäuble.
But here Angela Merkel never become part of Schäuble power circle...
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Post by Max Sinister on May 18, 2023 6:42:48 GMT
Correction: The GDR got the credit (1000 million Deutschmarks) in 1983 already, so this won't change, including the consequences. On the German AltHist wiki, I've created a page for TTL. Off topic i think but something that would be intersting if it ever comes to light, in a German TV series on Netflix called Kleo which revolves around documents that later shows there was a secret agreement between US President Ronald Reagan and East German leader Erich Honecker, that arranged for the United States giving financial aid to the GDR to keep it stable enough to justify the existence of the two Germanies and Washington's Cold War policy. Would that be possible here, but instead between Helmut Kohl and Erich Honecker. Well, the FRG did give the GDR a 1,000 million deutschmarks credit, as said. Although it had been Franz Josef Strauß doing that, not Kohl. (And Strauß pocketed some money as well.) Or did you mean that they'd give even more?
michelvan, all of those very good questions. TBH I didn't put much thought into it. But if Kohl fell as soon as 1984 (because of corruption - Flick, GDR credit), botched economics (second oil crisis), it might be that Germany has a red-green government when Communism breaks down. And I think if there is no quick reunification (several Allied states were against it after all), it may never come.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on May 18, 2023 7:45:19 GMT
Off topic i think but something that would be intersting if it ever comes to light, in a German TV series on Netflix called Kleo which revolves around documents that later shows there was a secret agreement between US President Ronald Reagan and East German leader Erich Honecker, that arranged for the United States giving financial aid to the GDR to keep it stable enough to justify the existence of the two Germanies and Washington's Cold War policy. Would that be possible here, but instead between Helmut Kohl and Erich Honecker. Well, the FRG did give the GDR a 1,000 million deutschmarks credit, as said. Although it had been Franz Josef Strauß doing that, not Kohl. (And Strauß pocketed some money as well.) Or did you mean that they'd give even more?
More, in secret to keep it afloat but as mentioned in my post about the secret Ronald Reagan-Erich Honecker treaty. You can see the documents in the 1:00 minute mark of this recap. |
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Post by Max Sinister on May 18, 2023 7:57:41 GMT
That's some odd series... who makes something like this?
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on May 18, 2023 8:24:31 GMT
That's some odd series... who makes something like this? The Germans for Netflix. But think I strayed off topic to much, my apologies. |
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miletus12
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Post by miletus12 on May 18, 2023 10:49:44 GMT
Now it was close for Kohl in 1976 win election, had FDP join CDU/CSU coalition... The German stagnation start earlier I mean with this is the Conservative politic of Kohl, just rule, no changes, no Innovation and allot canceled programs. (this during period Kohl and Merkel, lead to hell of problems that Germany endure today) The French will have issue with Kohl, as under Helmut Schmidt they had cooperative partner. Fact french president Valéry Giscard d’Estaing was personal friend of Helmut Schmidt and had issue with reserved Kohl, (like Mitterand) This could let to some delays in development of EU Now how would be Kohl Government after 1976? Not much it would like 1982, but he would face Terror Sommer of 1977 with murder of Hanns Martin Schleyer. This "Deutschen Herbst" was the major political crisis in West Germany history. had Kohl make a botch-up of this crisis he would face a constructive vote of no confidence by German Parlament. Here Helmut Schmidt could return as Chancellor ! Let assume kohl manage the "Deutschen Herbst" and stay in Power. the Billion Mark credit to east Germany will happen either end 1970s or 1980s. Certain he will reelected in 1980 and 1983, but here his popularity will drop. because Kohl cabinet pushed through several controversial plans. Like instalment of NATO midrange missiles. His action after Chernobyl disaster, that let to end of Germany Nuclear industry (with gravedigger Merkel) Now for 1987 election Kohl will face problem he is Chancellor since 11 years. and his politic made bad blood in CDU and CSU... In OTL he face internal opposition and external with Die Grünen and disloyal CDU members who founded far right Die RepublikanerWhat not for reunification of Germany, that make him the Over Chancellor of German history. But here is 1987, two years to events that let implode East Germany. Here internal Opposition of CDU under Heiner Geißler, will ouster Kohl and replace him with Lothar Späth as new Chancellor. Now imagine how Lothar Späth end up in German history book after 1989... He is competent Manager and politician with connection to East Germany, Except the litte „Traumschiff-Affäre“ were he resign from all his political post in 1991. The CDU has to take new leader and Chancellor: Wolfgang Schäuble. But here Angela Merkel never become part of Schäuble power circle... Plausible. Angela Merkel's policies, for good or ill, would be neutralized. I would see the economic-spall effects ripple outwards into the wider regional EU schisms as they generate. Might be interesting to read a take on how Wolfgang Schauble as Chencellor would mismanage the Eurozone Crisis. I also supply this article for further food for thought, because it brings up a thesis that I think has had staggering geopolitical implications either real or alternate history which I think plausibly started in the 1970s, which is when Kohl is implicated. Then there is the later Schreiber affair which could be moved back into the 1970s? |
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Post by Max Sinister on May 27, 2023 22:38:47 GMT
Now it was close for Kohl in 1976 win election, had FDP join CDU/CSU coalition... The German stagnation start earlier I mean with this is the Conservative politic of Kohl, just rule, no changes, no Innovation and allot canceled programs. (this during period Kohl and Merkel, lead to hell of problems that Germany endure today) The French will have issue with Kohl, as under Helmut Schmidt they had cooperative partner. Fact french president Valéry Giscard d’Estaing was personal friend of Helmut Schmidt and had issue with reserved Kohl, (like Mitterand) This could let to some delays in development of EU Now how would be Kohl Government after 1976? Not much it would like 1982, but he would face Terror Sommer of 1977 with murder of Hanns Martin Schleyer. This "Deutschen Herbst" was the major political crisis in West Germany history. had Kohl make a botch-up of this crisis he would face a constructive vote of no confidence by German Parlament. Here Helmut Schmidt could return as Chancellor ! Let assume kohl manage the "Deutschen Herbst" and stay in Power. the Billion Mark credit to east Germany will happen either end 1970s or 1980s. Certain he will reelected in 1980 and 1983, but here his popularity will drop. because Kohl cabinet pushed through several controversial plans. Like instalment of NATO midrange missiles. His action after Chernobyl disaster, that let to end of Germany Nuclear industry (with gravedigger Merkel) Now for 1987 election Kohl will face problem he is Chancellor since 11 years. and his politic made bad blood in CDU and CSU... In OTL he face internal opposition and external with Die Grünen and disloyal CDU members who founded far right Die RepublikanerWhat not for reunification of Germany, that make him the Over Chancellor of German history. But here is 1987, two years to events that let implode East Germany. Here internal Opposition of CDU under Heiner Geißler, will ouster Kohl and replace him with Lothar Späth as new Chancellor. Now imagine how Lothar Späth end up in German history book after 1989... He is competent Manager and politician with connection to East Germany, Except the litte „Traumschiff-Affäre“ were he resign from all his political post in 1991. The CDU has to take new leader and Chancellor: Wolfgang Schäuble. But here Angela Merkel never become part of Schäuble power circle... Plausible. Angela Merkel's policies, for good or ill, would be neutralized. I would see the economic-spall effects ripple outwards into the wider regional EU schisms as they generate. Might be interesting to read a take on how Wolfgang Schauble as Chencellor would mismanage the Eurozone Crisis. I also supply this article for further food for thought, because it brings up a thesis that I think has had staggering geopolitical implications either real or alternate history which I think plausibly started in the 1970s, which is when Kohl is implicated. Then there is the later Schreiber affair which could be moved back into the 1970s? Re: Merkel's politics it depends what whoever's-in-charge then will do instead. And whether history will have changed because of butterflies. Also, do you mean her politics re: Europe/financial crisis/Syria, or something else?
Germany's special relationship to Russia - again, whoever's in charge, it won't change the fact that Russia's closer to Germany than the US, delivers more natural gas (probably), and is also (militarily) much stronger. Of course, w/o a reunification, Germany has one reason fewer to be grateful towards Russia.
Schreiber? Well, Kohl wasn't called the "Bimbes" chancellor for nothing, something like that might happen here as well.
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miletus12
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Post by miletus12 on May 30, 2023 7:01:08 GMT
Never saw a Russian bribe he did not like. [tr][td class="content"][article] Re: Merkel's politics it depends what whoever's-in-charge then will do instead. And whether history will have changed because of butterflies. Also, do you mean her politics re: Europe/financial crisis/Syria, or something else?
Germany's special relationship to Russia - again, whoever's in charge, it won't change the fact that Russia's closer to Germany than the US, delivers more natural gas (probably), and is also (militarily) much stronger. Of course, w/o a reunification, Germany has one reason fewer to be grateful towards Russia.
Schreiber? Well, Kohl wasn't called the "Bimbes" chancellor for nothing, something like that might happen here as well.
I think in Merkel's case, her corruption was worse than Kohl's. Does that answer your question? As for Syria; I exclude that part. I mean the cleave between the north-south in the EU and the IMF style corruption that Germany's banks played in the economic crises internally in the EU over the past 40- years, no matter who pretended to be chancellor. |
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Post by Max Sinister on May 30, 2023 23:39:12 GMT
Never saw a Russian bribe he did not like. [tr][td class="content"][article] Re: Merkel's politics it depends what whoever's-in-charge then will do instead. And whether history will have changed because of butterflies. Also, do you mean her politics re: Europe/financial crisis/Syria, or something else?
Germany's special relationship to Russia - again, whoever's in charge, it won't change the fact that Russia's closer to Germany than the US, delivers more natural gas (probably), and is also (militarily) much stronger. Of course, w/o a reunification, Germany has one reason fewer to be grateful towards Russia.
Schreiber? Well, Kohl wasn't called the "Bimbes" chancellor for nothing, something like that might happen here as well.
I think in Merkel's case, her corruption was worse than Kohl's. Does that answer your question? As for Syria; I exclude that part. I mean the cleave between the north-south in the EU and the IMF style corruption that Germany's banks played in the economic crises internally in the EU over the past 40- years, no matter who pretended to be chancellor.
Russian? Are you confusing Kohl with Schröder? There was corruption under Kohl indeed, but rather coming from sources like Flick.
But yes, Merkel's politics weren't exactly a boon. Regarding the big problems, she rather made things worse.
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miletus12
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Post by miletus12 on May 31, 2023 4:21:23 GMT
Never saw a Russian bribe he did not like. I think in Merkel's case, her corruption was worse than Kohl's. Does that answer your question? As for Syria; I exclude that part. I mean the cleave between the north-south in the EU and the IMF style corruption that Germany's banks played in the economic crises internally in the EU over the past 40- years, no matter who pretended to be chancellor.
Russian? Are you confusing Kohl with Schröder? There was corruption under Kohl indeed, but rather coming from sources like Flick.
But yes, Merkel's politics weren't exactly a boon. Regarding the big problems, she rather made things worse.
Nope. Follow the money. Some of it came from "Leningrad" by way of France. |
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michelvan
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Post by michelvan on May 31, 2023 6:22:24 GMT
Russian Gas and bribery: Gerard Schröder enter the room...
Now to explain the situation
in 1960s the Soviets Mingazprom discover the Largest gas well in world and exploited it.
with Soyuz Pipeline they exported Gas to East Block
Now Germany needed energy for there industry and lack resources like oil or gas,
so the SPD Government under Willy Brand made deal with Soviets, Germany deliver high quality steel pipes and Soviet Mingazprom build a Pipeline to Germany.
During that Time Gerard Schröder was head of SPD youth Organisation and a Marxist (with allot visit to Moscow, with Olaf Scholz)
After 1973 oil crisis Gas became cheap power source and
Special after 1986 as Helmut Kohl murder the German nuclear industry make Germany dependent on Soviet Gas.
in mean time Gerard Schröder rise in SPD as Spezialist for energy policy (next to that minister-president of Lower saxony and manager in Volkswagen)
and became Chancellor replacing Helmut Kohl
Chancellor Schröder show his true face with arrogant push of social darwinism program like Harz IV or abolition of minimum wage.
It destroyed the German labour market and push allot germans into poverty. (I witnessed this that my self)
Schröder push further exit out nuclear energy, not to please the Green party, but for his self interest...
See with his lobbyism he manage to get connection special in Energy industry, focusing on gas, particularly Russian Gas !
Now in mean time the USSR imploded and Russia return, the soviet Mingazprom became capitalist Gasprom, control today by the Putin clan.
and who is one of best friends of Vladimir Putin ? a certain Gerard Schröder (also Silvio Berlusconi and other shady characters)
Even as Chancellor, Schröder try to give Gasprom access on German market what other German and Europan Gas companies prevented.
under Chancellor Merkel nothing changes much, only that Germany is even more dependent on Russian Gas and ignores US warnings...
Has situation after Merkel improved ? nope
Germany lost there access to cheap Gas
Chancellor Olaf Scholz deals with to many problems like Ukraine war (next his legalise involvement in machinations of Karlstadt/Kaufhof Galeria deal)
While the leader of CDU, Friedrich Merz is same arrogant social darwinist like Gerard Schröder...
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