stevep
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Post by stevep on May 31, 2023 15:46:16 GMT
They were unaware of how it would contaminate the water table and get into the food chains, even with an air burst, but they had object lessons about ionizing radiation. The very selection of the test shot in a bowl valley surrounded by mountains showed a basic grasp of what they feared. Did scientists and military researchers also understand the effects of radiation poisoning or the cancers that will soon pop out after being exposed to it?
Most probably not at that stage. You had examples, such as Madam Curie as miletus12 mentioned but how much was realised at the time is unclear. Later on troops generally, not just in the US, were exposed to fallout in tests and famously the cancer that killed John Wayne - along with probably a lot of other actors - has been associated to films made in areas which had been contaminated by fallout from tests.
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miletus12
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Post by miletus12 on Jun 1, 2023 7:41:24 GMT
Most probably not at that stage. You had examples, such as Madam Curie as miletus12 mentioned but how much was realised at the time is unclear. Later on troops generally, not just in the US, were exposed to fallout in tests and famously the cancer that killed John Wayne - along with probably a lot of other actors - has been associated to films made in areas which had been contaminated by fallout from tests. Like anything never used before (Gunpowder in the 14th century comes to mind.), the exact dangers were indeterminant. So you look for evidence in Human behavior around the event / device to ascertain what the first users expected. When the Dauphin's hired expert Genoese cannoneers lit the fuses of their bombards and ran from the infernal things as they cannonaded the English in the closing years of the Hundred Years War, we can ascertain from their actions, that they knew just enough to be scared. When the Trinity shot went off, the weaponeers were terrified. They did not have a certainty of what to expect. They "suspected" that the blast would be 10 orders of magnitude worse than anything they had ever seen. They knew from laboratory tickling of plutonium test spheres, that in a fizzle, the sphere could blow apart and scatter radioactive debris. That is how the first Project Manhattan experimenter DIED. They certainly expected that fragments of the bomb, would be scattered and that radioactive particles would contaminate the immediate blast site, and they expected that lingering immediate radiation, that would decay from minutes to hours to weeks would produce secondary ionizing effects to exposed organic life that the bomb shined upon directly. Some of them (Oliphant and Teller) even predicted the dangers of fallout. They did not know with exactitude what to expect. |
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spiegel
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Post by spiegel on Jun 1, 2023 8:31:58 GMT
I would Imagine US Allied Forces and Hirohoto Loyalists vs Tojo and his Radical Forces been interesting and it shall been a Japanese Civil War.
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gillan1220
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Post by gillan1220 on Jun 1, 2023 13:21:27 GMT
I would Imagine US Allied Forces and Hirohoto Loyalists vs Tojo and his Radical Forces been interesting and it shall been a Japanese Civil War. A Japanese Civil War will play right into the favor of the allies. It would mean the U.S. does not need to land in Japan after all. "Let them fight," MacArthur says. "Japanese will only be spoken in Hell," - Admiral Halsey. |
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kasumigenx
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Post by kasumigenx on Jun 1, 2023 15:17:05 GMT
The issue would be a possible Soviet annexation of a part of Japan and partition.
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miletus12
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Post by miletus12 on Jun 1, 2023 15:36:53 GMT
The issue would be a possible Soviet annexation of a part of Japan and partition. There was a discussion about whether the Soviets could sealift enough infantry to invade Hokkaido on another alternate history site. After I read the discussion, I came to the conclusion that the Russians might pull off a Kurile Island type operation if two conditions were met: a. The Americans allowed it. b. The Japanese allowed it. I was dubious about b. As for a., the Americans allowed a Kurile Islands operation; but diplomatically discouraged Russian intrusion any further. The Russians could have ignored the note. I do not know what would have happened at that moment further. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jun 1, 2023 15:40:15 GMT
Most probably not at that stage. You had examples, such as Madam Curie as miletus12 mentioned but how much was realised at the time is unclear. Later on troops generally, not just in the US, were exposed to fallout in tests and famously the cancer that killed John Wayne - along with probably a lot of other actors - has been associated to films made in areas which had been contaminated by fallout from tests. Like anything never used before (Gunpowder in the 14th century comes to mind.), the exact dangers were indeterminant. So you look for evidence in Human behavior around the event / device to ascertain what the first users expected. When the Dauphin's hired expert Genoese cannoneers lit the fuses of their bombards and ran from the infernal things as they cannonaded the English in the closing years of the Hundred Years War, we can ascertain from their actions, that they knew just enough to be scared. When the Trinity shot went off, the weaponeers were terrified. They did not have a certainty of what to expect. They "suspected" that the blast would be 10 orders of magnitude worse than anything they had ever seen. They knew from laboratory tickling of plutonium test spheres, that in a fizzle, the sphere could blow apart and scatter radioactive debris. That is how the first Project Manhattan experimenter DIED. They certainly expected that fragments of the bomb, would be scattered and that radioactive particles would contaminate the immediate blast site, and they expected that lingering immediate radiation, that would decay from minutes to hours to weeks would produce secondary ionizing effects to exposed organic life that the bomb shined upon directly. Some of them (Oliphant and Teller) even predicted the dangers of fallout. They did not know with exactitude what to expect.
I know what you mean about the concerns about the Trinity test. One reference to it said that some of the people involved were concerned that it would set the entire atmosphere ablaze in some chain reaction. Which shows how far some of the concerns went.
The question is, given the uncertainty in scientific circles what do the politicians and generals decide?
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miletus12
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Post by miletus12 on Jun 1, 2023 15:46:06 GMT
The question is, given the uncertainty in scientific circles what do the politicians and generals decide? In the arguments between Groves and Oppenheimer, we actually KNOW what was decided. Oppenheimer wanted a delay for better weather, another day. Groves gave him an hour for local showers to clear out. Groves won. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jun 1, 2023 16:03:09 GMT
The question is, given the uncertainty in scientific circles what do the politicians and generals decide? In the arguments between Groves and Oppenheimer, we actually KNOW what was decided. Oppenheimer wanted a delay for better weather, another day. Groves gave him an hour for local showers to clear out. Groves won.
Which bodes ill for scientists being listened to elsewhere on the subject, possibly especially high up the food [power] chain.
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miletus12
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Post by miletus12 on Jun 1, 2023 16:19:29 GMT
In the arguments between Groves and Oppenheimer, we actually KNOW what was decided. Oppenheimer wanted a delay for better weather, another day. Groves gave him an hour for local showers to clear out. Groves won.
Which bodes ill for scientists being listened to elsewhere on the subject, possibly especially high up the food [power] chain.
FEMA. |
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michelvan
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Post by michelvan on Jun 1, 2023 16:38:26 GMT
The issue would be a possible Soviet annexation of a part of Japan and partition. Stalin order the preparation for Japanese invasion by Red Army They had marched into Korea and wanted to invade Hokkaidō and then north Honshū direction Tokyo. and Stalin not care about the losses and atrocities It was two thing that stop Stalin, the Atomic bomb and following surrender of Japan to USA. He order the development of soviet atomic bomb, in case the US got to stupid idea to use it on Moscow... Now what would Stalin do in this senario ? he would order the Soviet Nuke, but it likely that red army invade Hokkaidō, run in same problem like USA had in Okinawa. What delay invasion of north Honshū, then japan surrender in Spring of 1946. This Post War japan would be interesting: Hokkaidō part of USSR rest under US control 17 Japanese Cities destroy with Atomic bombs with 3 million victims, remaining large cities bomb into Stone age. and Americans dictate more harsh conditions for Surrender like remove the Tenno from power. |
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gillan1220
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Post by gillan1220 on Jun 2, 2023 3:03:04 GMT
The issue would be a possible Soviet annexation of a part of Japan and partition. The Soviets had no intention to annex Japan. There was lengthy discussion on Operation Downfall recently: What if the nukes never dropped and operation Downfall commenced?There was a discussion about whether the Soviets could sealift enough infantry to invade Hokkaido on another alternate history site. After I read the discussion, I came to the conclusion that the Russians might pull off a Kurile Island type operation if two conditions were met: a. The Americans allowed it. b. The Japanese allowed it. I was dubious about b. As for a., the Americans allowed a Kurile Islands operation; but diplomatically discouraged Russian intrusion any further. The Russians could have ignored the note. I do not know what would have happened at that moment further. The Soviets had 30 landing crafts (LCIs). Five were lost in the Kurils. 25 more would be enough to secure a port to let supplies come. The problem was where will the Red Army or the Soviet Naval Infantry get their fire support. The Soviets only had a handful of destroyers and cruisers (1930s USN models) since they were reluctant to use their sole heavy cruiser in the Pacific Fleet because of possible mines and kamikaze attacks. |
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Post by TheRomanSlayer on Jun 2, 2023 5:03:52 GMT
I could imagine that the only things that the Soviets would want from Japan are the Kurile Islands and Sakhalin Island in its entirety. A freer hand in Korea would be more likely, but even attempting to take Hokkaido would spoil any potential future relations between the Soviets and Japanese. At best, Japan could become the Asiatic island equivalent of Finland, where it would be forced to remain neutral as to not piss off the Soviet Union.
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michelvan
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Post by michelvan on Jun 2, 2023 7:52:41 GMT
I could imagine that the only things that the Soviets would want from Japan are the Kurile Islands and Sakhalin Island in its entirety. A freer hand in Korea would be more likely, but even attempting to take Hokkaido would spoil any potential future relations between the Soviets and Japanese. At best, Japan could become the Asiatic island equivalent of Finland, where it would be forced to remain neutral as to not piss off the Soviet Union. If they become Neutral, Japan will not become economic power house of Asia, Why ? USA used Japan as base in Asia and used it during cold War for various means. During Korea War, Japan produce good and products for US forces in Korea, Kickstarted the Japanese economy to become big in 1950s to 1980s A neutral Japan under harsh US Trade regulation, would remain impoverished country. also is Japan strategy Geographic position vital for USA operation near mainland China (Okinawa to small, the Philippines to far a way from China, Korea) Similar West Germany strategy Geographic position to east block No way the USA would keep Japan Neutral ! |
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michelvan
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Post by michelvan on Jun 2, 2023 8:17:06 GMT
In TL the Free Republic of Outremeuse
I play with idea of isolate impoverished Japan
in Second Great War Japan attack Pearl Harbor and German Outpost in Pacific.
USA and Great German Reich join forces
in the end the German Atomic bomb force Japan to surrender
and US German Occupation force take over the Japan divide in north south zone.
In China the Kuomintang are victorious over the Communist, (with German Help)
Chiang Kai‐shek makes sure there are No Communist threats at China border
And invade Vietnam, Korea and others. So no need for US to intervene.
Means no kickstart for Japanese economy.
in 1960s Germany give up the Occupation of japan do high cost and want that Chinese to replace them.
Japanese Government refuses this and demand that US take over the full occupation of Japan.
and since USA is in Cold war with China and Germany, they need Japan strategy Geographic position near China.
in 1980s Japan is impoverished isolated country under US protection, ruled by "Neo-shogunate" dictatorship.
in other words, analog to North Korea...
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