|
|
Post by diamondstorm on May 11, 2023 3:53:19 GMT
In our timeline, the Spanish-Portuguese War was more or less a border war between their colonial possessions in South America, fought between 1776 and 1777. In the end, the results in the peace treaty found themselves more so in favor of Spain than Portugal. From a Spanish perspective, there was relatively little fear that Britain would be involved on the side of the age-old ally in the Portuguese due to the American Revolutionary War. And when the war was over, the Portuguese were disappointed by the lack of British support so despite being bound to the British by treaty, they declared neutrality during the American Revolution. But, what if, in the event the American Revolutionary War is averted or defeated early on, Britain does intervene in favor of Portugal? Does France jump on Spain’s side, causing an alt-Anglo French War? How would South America be impacted by foreign intervention? What would the outcome of this war be?
|
|
stevep
Fleet admiral
Posts: 24,832 
Likes: 13,222
|
Post by stevep on May 11, 2023 14:47:39 GMT
In our timeline, the Spanish-Portuguese War was more or less a border war between their colonial possessions in South America, fought between 1776 and 1777. In the end, the results in the peace treaty found themselves more so in favor of Spain than Portugal. From a Spanish perspective, there was relatively little fear that Britain would be involved on the side of the age-old ally in the Portuguese due to the American Revolutionary War. And when the war was over, the Portuguese were disappointed by the lack of British support so despite being bound to the British by treaty, they declared neutrality during the American Revolution. But, what if, in the event the American Revolutionary War is averted or defeated early on, Britain does intervene in favor of Portugal? Does France jump on Spain’s side, causing an alt-Anglo French War? How would South America be impacted by foreign intervention? What would the outcome of this war be?
Very difficult to say but if the colonial revolution is avoided or ended then Britain is probably likely to support Portugal, which is likely to bring in France as well. Portugal is an important ally and the youngish still George III is likely to be bullish while also with Spain holding the former French western Louisiana it could be a good option for winning over some disgruntled colonials by offering options for western expansion into the Mississippi valley.
If so then it would depend on the situation in the rest of Europe and also around the world. The French government had plans for a solely colonial war so that they weren't distracted by fighting on the continent and also Britain had had something of an outbreak of hubris which left us politically isolated. As such its likely to be Britain & Portugal v France & Spain. Given the lack of a colonial distraction in N America and possibly as important the division that misinformation about the causes of that conflict caused in the UK Britain will however be somewhat stronger although as a markedly less militaristic state its going to be a slow starter.
Difficult to tell how things go and Britain could still lose some outlying regions such as Menorca or Goree Island but could well win territory elsewhere.Possibly driving the French from India totally rather than reducing then to only trading centres and picking up somewhere in the Caribbean. Possibly given its recent purchase by France and the unrest there Corsica could become a British protectorate with a naval base there. Spain could well lose a good chunk of Louisiana at the peace.
Its likely that the costs of the war will bring revolution in France, although the date could be different and depending on the circumstances possibly also the wider outcome. Other butterflies would be harder to tell.
|
|
|
|
Post by diamondstorm on May 11, 2023 15:30:58 GMT
In our timeline, the Spanish-Portuguese War was more or less a border war between their colonial possessions in South America, fought between 1776 and 1777. In the end, the results in the peace treaty found themselves more so in favor of Spain than Portugal. From a Spanish perspective, there was relatively little fear that Britain would be involved on the side of the age-old ally in the Portuguese due to the American Revolutionary War. And when the war was over, the Portuguese were disappointed by the lack of British support so despite being bound to the British by treaty, they declared neutrality during the American Revolution. But, what if, in the event the American Revolutionary War is averted or defeated early on, Britain does intervene in favor of Portugal? Does France jump on Spain’s side, causing an alt-Anglo French War? How would South America be impacted by foreign intervention? What would the outcome of this war be?
Very difficult to say but if the colonial revolution is avoided or ended then Britain is probably likely to support Portugal, which is likely to bring in France as well. Portugal is an important ally and the youngish still George III is likely to be bullish while also with Spain holding the former French western Louisiana it could be a good option for winning over some disgruntled colonials by offering options for western expansion into the Mississippi valley.
If so then it would depend on the situation in the rest of Europe and also around the world. The French government had plans for a solely colonial war so that they weren't distracted by fighting on the continent and also Britain had had something of an outbreak of hubris which left us politically isolated. As such its likely to be Britain & Portugal v France & Spain. Given the lack of a colonial distraction in N America and possibly as important the division that misinformation about the causes of that conflict caused in the UK Britain will however be somewhat stronger although as a markedly less militaristic state its going to be a slow starter.
Difficult to tell how things go and Britain could still lose some outlying regions such as Menorca or Goree Island but could well win territory elsewhere.Possibly driving the French from India totally rather than reducing then to only trading centres and picking up somewhere in the Caribbean. Possibly given its recent purchase by France and the unrest there Corsica could become a British protectorate with a naval base there. Spain could well lose a good chunk of Louisiana at the peace.
Its likely that the costs of the war will bring revolution in France, although the date could be different and depending on the circumstances possibly also the wider outcome. Other butterflies would be harder to tell.
I guess what I’m really going for is what would be the big changes to South America heading forward (namely in Argentina, Brazil, and Uruguay since that was where OTL’s War was mostly fought. And would it be plausible for something of an analogue the Anglo-French War to pop up like OTL albeit under different circumstances (no mainland North America)? |
|
stevep
Fleet admiral
Posts: 24,832
Likes: 13,222
|
Post by stevep on May 11, 2023 15:43:31 GMT
Very difficult to say but if the colonial revolution is avoided or ended then Britain is probably likely to support Portugal, which is likely to bring in France as well. Portugal is an important ally and the youngish still George III is likely to be bullish while also with Spain holding the former French western Louisiana it could be a good option for winning over some disgruntled colonials by offering options for western expansion into the Mississippi valley.
If so then it would depend on the situation in the rest of Europe and also around the world. The French government had plans for a solely colonial war so that they weren't distracted by fighting on the continent and also Britain had had something of an outbreak of hubris which left us politically isolated. As such its likely to be Britain & Portugal v France & Spain. Given the lack of a colonial distraction in N America and possibly as important the division that misinformation about the causes of that conflict caused in the UK Britain will however be somewhat stronger although as a markedly less militaristic state its going to be a slow starter.
Difficult to tell how things go and Britain could still lose some outlying regions such as Menorca or Goree Island but could well win territory elsewhere.Possibly driving the French from India totally rather than reducing then to only trading centres and picking up somewhere in the Caribbean. Possibly given its recent purchase by France and the unrest there Corsica could become a British protectorate with a naval base there. Spain could well lose a good chunk of Louisiana at the peace.
Its likely that the costs of the war will bring revolution in France, although the date could be different and depending on the circumstances possibly also the wider outcome. Other butterflies would be harder to tell.
I guess what I’m really going for is what would be the big changes to South America heading forward (namely in Argentina, Brazil, and Uruguay since that was where OTL’s War was mostly fought. And would it be plausible for something of an analogue the Anglo-French War to pop up like OTL albeit under different circumstances (no mainland North America)?
Well I doubt at this stage that they would come under British rule or become independent but it might speed things up a bit. There might be more impact on the settlement of NW N America as both Britain and Spain were making claims to this area - along with Russia.
One other option, albeit a long shot I think is that it might see British support for Tupac Amaru's revolt which could possibly have a big impact on the region. If that was to prompt an independent Peru - which might also include other parts of the former Inca empire - and that survived not being suppressed by the Spanish later it would have a considerable impact on the development of the region. Especially since it would be the 1st part, and a substantial one, of the Americas to become independent of European rule. However I suspect this is a very long shot as Britain becoming aware of the revolt before its largely suppressed, let alone being able to aid it would be a big issue given the difficulty of reaching it by British forces. |
|
|
|
Post by diamondstorm on May 11, 2023 16:02:44 GMT
I guess that’s all interesting but I still have a couple of questions. How would the course of the war be impacted by British (and later on potentially, French too) entry into this war and would this trigger a wider Anglo-French war like the ARW did IOTL?
|
|
stevep
Fleet admiral
Posts: 24,832
Likes: 13,222
|
Post by stevep on May 11, 2023 18:02:01 GMT
I guess that’s all interesting but I still have a couple of questions. How would the course of the war be impacted by British (and later on potentially, French too) entry into this war and would this trigger a wider Anglo-French war like the ARW did IOTL?
It would definitely be a world wide war as I mentioned. That was the French plan from what I have read, although some decades back and the way Britain would have responded with its strengths being in naval power and trading. The only place likely not to be directly affected would be Europe.
One other thing that is likely to be in Britain's favour is I suspect that the Netherlands are likely to stay neutral.
|
|
|
|
Post by diamondstorm on May 11, 2023 20:26:36 GMT
I guess that’s all interesting but I still have a couple of questions. How would the course of the war be impacted by British (and later on potentially, French too) entry into this war and would this trigger a wider Anglo-French war like the ARW did IOTL?
It would definitely be a world wide war as I mentioned. That was the French plan from what I have read, although some decades back and the way Britain would have responded with its strengths being in naval power and trading. The only place likely not to be directly affected would be Europe.
One other thing that is likely to be in Britain's favour is I suspect that the Netherlands are likely to stay neutral.
If I’m correct, things were starting to turn sour between Britain and the Netherlands at the time due to the Dutch feeling like the junior partner to the British and supporting the American colonists (even if they are defeated here) alongside the British capturing ships of neutral nations trading with enemy combatants. I think there may be a separate Anglo-Dutch War per OTL as well. |
|
mspence
Warrant Officer
Posts: 281
Likes: 243
|
Post by mspence on May 12, 2023 9:41:46 GMT
Considering they lost the Revolutionary War it probably wouldn't matter that much for the British. Argentina might have more of a Dutch and French influence.
|
|
stevep
Fleet admiral
Posts: 24,832
Likes: 13,222
|
Post by stevep on May 12, 2023 18:21:23 GMT
It would definitely be a world wide war as I mentioned. That was the French plan from what I have read, although some decades back and the way Britain would have responded with its strengths being in naval power and trading. The only place likely not to be directly affected would be Europe.
One other thing that is likely to be in Britain's favour is I suspect that the Netherlands are likely to stay neutral.
If I’m correct, things were starting to turn sour between Britain and the Netherlands at the time due to the Dutch feeling like the junior partner to the British and supporting the American colonists (even if they are defeated here) alongside the British capturing ships of neutral nations trading with enemy combatants. I think there may be a separate Anglo-Dutch War per OTL as well.
I don't know as either there's been no revolutionary war or the rebels have been quickly defeated so the OTL trigger isn't there. It might depend on how Britain treats neutral shipping in the new war but there hadn't been problems before and the Netherlands have a lot to lose from going to war - given Britain lies along Dutch supply lines - as well as to gain by being able to continue trading while economic rivals are at war.
|
|
stevep
Fleet admiral
Posts: 24,832
Likes: 13,222
|
Post by stevep on May 12, 2023 18:23:29 GMT
Considering they lost the Revolutionary War it probably wouldn't matter that much for the British. Argentina might have more of a Dutch and French influence.
However the situation is considerably different here. The colonists are [largely anyway depending on the exact circumstances] loyal and have options to gain from the war while Britain isn't going to be deeply divided over the conflict.
|
|
|
|
Post by diamondstorm on May 13, 2023 2:45:51 GMT
Considering they lost the Revolutionary War it probably wouldn't matter that much for the British. Argentina might have more of a Dutch and French influence. The POD for this TL is the American Revolution being butterflied (either an early defeat or complete aversion). So things might matter more if the British get involved in South America here. |
|
|
|
Post by diamondstorm on May 17, 2023 23:59:49 GMT
I've done a little bit of digging online (including other forums) and apparently, if Britain gets involved then territorial options could range from keeping Portugal's OTL African claims and the territory picked up from the Spanish in the previous war to gaining all of OTL Uruguay with Entre Rios being disputed and even large parts of the Viceroyalty of Rio de la Plata at play too. I'm honestly not sure myself what changes in territory would be realistic.
|
|
