michelvan
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Post by michelvan on Apr 27, 2023 12:48:01 GMT
Prolog:
General Helmuth Von Moltke enjoy Naturism and was Patron of a masked ball for nudist in 1908.
This became public and German rainbow press made out event a wild orgy.
Emperor Wilhelm II. shaken by series of scandals, is forced to expel Von Moltke from Army and take new Chief of the Great German General Staff.
The new Chief of Staff [insert name here] look into Schlieffen Plan of 1905 and checkt current situation in Europe and envision new Plan.
This war plan, envision a first Attack on Russia and Defence on French Border, with invasion of Luxemburg if needed.
While Belgium neutrality is respected, keeping British Empire out the War, so long France not marching true Belgium into Germany.
Once armistice or capitulation is sign with Russia, the German army focus on France, if needed Belgium is invaded to reach Paris.
World War One
1914-1916
The German Army manage push the Russians forces back, liberate Poland and Baltic states
in mean time French try find a Solution to Deadlock at fortified German Border.
There attempt to force Belgium, to let French troops pass true the kingdom to attack Germany,
Let to direct conflict with British Empire do there treaty obligation to Belgium,
While Italy remain Neutral
The French Generals have one Solution to this problem, they send hundred thousand Soldiers against fortified German Border.
1917
With heavy losses for Russia, let to uprise and collapse of Tsar rule and new Government, the Communist.
They sign a armistice with German Empire
German move their Forces from east front to west front.
In mean time the French Army endure heavy losses , what let to mutiny in Army.
French Prime minister Clemenceau order brutal submission of Army Mutiny and civilian peace protest
This back fires, The Mutiny become a Revolt that french Army overthrow the Government Clemenceau.
The New Government demand armistice with German Empire, who ready to invade
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Apr 27, 2023 13:27:55 GMT
Prolog:General Helmuth Von Moltke enjoy Naturism and was Patron of a masked ball for nudist in 1908. This became public and German rainbow press made out event a wild orgy. Emperor Wilhelm II. shaken by series of scandals, is forced to expel Von Moltke from Army and take new Chief of the Great German General Staff. The new Chief of Staff [insert name here] look into Schlieffen Plan of 1905 and checkt current situation in Europe and envision new Plan. This war plan, envision a first Attack on Russia and Defence on French Border, with invasion of Luxemburg if needed. While Belgium neutrality is respected, keeping British Empire out the War, so long France not marching true Belgium into Germany. Once armistice or capitulation is sign with Russia, the German army focus on France, if needed Belgium is invaded to reach Paris. World War One1914-1916 The German Army manage push the Russians forces back, liberate Poland and Baltic states in mean time French try find a Solution to Deadlock at fortified German Border. There attempt to force Belgium, to let French troops pass true the kingdom to attack Germany, Let to direct conflict with British Empire do there treaty obligation to Belgium, While Italy remain Neutral The French Generals have one Solution to this problem, they send hundred thousand Soldiers against fortified German Border. 1917 With heavy losses for Russia, let to uprise and collapse of Tsar rule and new Government, the Communist. They sign a armistice with German Empire German move their Forces from east front to west front. In mean time the French Army endure heavy losses , what let to mutiny in Army. French Prime minister Clemenceau order brutal submission of Army Mutiny and civilian peace protest This back fires, The Mutiny become a Revolt that french Army overthrow the Government Clemenceau. The New Government demand armistice with German Empire, who ready to invade So a East First strategy for Germany. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Apr 27, 2023 18:15:35 GMT
Prolog:General Helmuth Von Moltke enjoy Naturism and was Patron of a masked ball for nudist in 1908. This became public and German rainbow press made out event a wild orgy. Emperor Wilhelm II. shaken by series of scandals, is forced to expel Von Moltke from Army and take new Chief of the Great German General Staff. The new Chief of Staff [insert name here] look into Schlieffen Plan of 1905 and checkt current situation in Europe and envision new Plan. This war plan, envision a first Attack on Russia and Defence on French Border, with invasion of Luxemburg if needed. While Belgium neutrality is respected, keeping British Empire out the War, so long France not marching true Belgium into Germany. Once armistice or capitulation is sign with Russia, the German army focus on France, if needed Belgium is invaded to reach Paris. World War One1914-1916 The German Army manage push the Russians forces back, liberate Poland and Baltic states in mean time French try find a Solution to Deadlock at fortified German Border. There attempt to force Belgium, to let French troops pass true the kingdom to attack Germany, Let to direct conflict with British Empire do there treaty obligation to Belgium, While Italy remain Neutral The French Generals have one Solution to this problem, they send hundred thousand Soldiers against fortified German Border. 1917 With heavy losses for Russia, let to uprise and collapse of Tsar rule and new Government, the Communist. They sign a armistice with German Empire German move their Forces from east front to west front. In mean time the French Army endure heavy losses , what let to mutiny in Army. French Prime minister Clemenceau order brutal submission of Army Mutiny and civilian peace protest This back fires, The Mutiny become a Revolt that french Army overthrow the Government Clemenceau. The New Government demand armistice with German Empire, who ready to invade
That's a possible path but there are some issues. For instance: a) Would Russia respond by boosting its defences and plan to fall back deep into the hinterland once it realised that its the primary target. b) If Russia still collapses, with a Germany as the clear aggressor and - if as OTL refusing to accept a moderate peace settlements - then its unlikely that it would be the communists gaining power as the Russians have no option but to continue fighting to resist the invasion. c) Not sure whether France would try an attack through Belgium or what Britain would do in this scenario. Especially since without direct involvement in the war from 1914 what happens in Ireland will be very important for Britain.
d) Depends on how French military policy develops but without the occupation of a large chunk of its territory, including much of its heartland its going to have more resources of its own. e) What happens to Italy? Does it still go allied, stay neutral or even join the CPs? f) Does Germany try USW against French shipping? That would have a big impact on world opinion? Britain especially would be greatly angered.
Possibly most of all - with a POD in 1908 how many other things change. Obvious one is that FF may avoid assassination which was the initial trigger for the war. However do things like the Italian attack on Libya, which triggered the two Balkan wars go unchanged.
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michelvan
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Post by michelvan on Apr 28, 2023 7:59:46 GMT
Would Russia respond by boosting its defences and plan to fall back deep into the hinterland once it realised that its the primary target. The main problem with Russia, there backward special under repressive Tsar rule ! The Army was ill equip, lack of weapons and ammo and there incompetent officers orders uneducated farmers, oddly a patter that repeat true russia history even today... If Russia still collapses, with a Germany as the clear aggressor and - if as OTL refusing to accept a moderate peace settlements - then its unlikely that it would be the communists gaining power as the Russians have no option but to continue fighting to resist the invasion. OTL this happen the Germans push aggressive the frontline eastwards, while new Government do France involvement wanted to continue the War what Communist ended, (Lenin got German Train ticket) The Communist successful on second attempt but had manage first Attempt they would from Juli 1917 in Control ready to talk with Germans c) Not sure whether France would try an attack through Belgium or what Britain would do in this scenario. France had invaded south of Belgium near Luxemburg in 1914, but had to retreat as Germans came ! The 1849 Treaty of London consolidate Belgium as Neutral Kingdom protect by British Empire. Reason why Britain join War was German invasion of Belgium and their Treaty obligation, other wise want to remain neutral. Not first time, under Napoleon III and Luxemburg crisis, made Britain very clear to French move into Belgium means war with Britain and Belgium ! What happens to Italy? Does it still go allied, stay neutral or even join the CPs? At begin of WW1 Italy remain Neutral, that change as France persuade to join Entente, in end it was fiasco for Italy and let to rise of the Duce. Does Germany try USW against French shipping? That would have a big impact on world opinion? Britain especially would be greatly angered. Since in this senario Britain NOT intervene and Stay neutral The German battle-fleet and submarine goes after French Navy and merchant ship... |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Apr 28, 2023 15:40:52 GMT
Would Russia respond by boosting its defences and plan to fall back deep into the hinterland once it realised that its the primary target. The main problem with Russia, there backward special under repressive Tsar rule ! The Army was ill equip, lack of weapons and ammo and there incompetent officers orders uneducated farmers, oddly a patter that repeat true russia history even today... If Russia still collapses, with a Germany as the clear aggressor and - if as OTL refusing to accept a moderate peace settlements - then its unlikely that it would be the communists gaining power as the Russians have no option but to continue fighting to resist the invasion. OTL this happen the Germans push aggressive the frontline eastwards, while new Government do France involvement wanted to continue the War what Communist ended, (Lenin got German Train ticket) The Communist successful on second attempt but had manage first Attempt they would from Juli 1917 in Control ready to talk with Germans c) Not sure whether France would try an attack through Belgium or what Britain would do in this scenario. France had invaded south of Belgium near Luxemburg in 1914, but had to retreat as Germans came ! The 1849 Treaty of London consolidate Belgium as Neutral Kingdom protect by British Empire. Reason why Britain join War was German invasion of Belgium and their Treaty obligation, other wise want to remain neutral. Not first time, under Napoleon III and Luxemburg crisis, made Britain very clear to French move into Belgium means war with Britain and Belgium ! What happens to Italy? Does it still go allied, stay neutral or even join the CPs? At begin of WW1 Italy remain Neutral, that change as France persuade to join Entente, in end it was fiasco for Italy and let to rise of the Duce. Does Germany try USW against French shipping? That would have a big impact on world opinion? Britain especially would be greatly angered. Since in this senario Britain NOT intervene and Stay neutral The German battle-fleet and submarine goes after French Navy and merchant ship...
Agree on most points but
a) True on Russian incompetence but with a fire lite under them of being the prime target of both Germany and probably Austria in any war that's going to give a hell of an incentive. Also even if they don't pay attention to their defences they still have historical precedence for a retreat into the Russian hinterland which will seriously strain CP resources and mobilize Russian support for resisting the invader. As Russia is fighting on the defensive instead of launching very costly attacks to take the pressure off France. The deeper into Russia the fighting goes while the Russian army is still in good morale condition the more problems the Germans and Austrians will have supporting artillery and the like with adequate supplies and possibly fighting off assorted guerilla attacks.
Also I can't see the communists becoming significant in such a scenario, even if you have Nickolas deposed and then the Germans send Lenin and his cronies via Sweden. They are likely to be seen as foreign agents working for the Germans while Russian men are dying keeping the Germans at bay. Which would be quite accurate. You would need the Germans to be less interested in massive annexations compared to OTL. If they just want control over Russian Poland and possibly some small neighbouring areas then it would probably lead to peace with both Russia and France - who haven't lost massive amounts of territory - but that would mean after a very costly war Germany has made largely minimal gains and neither France nor Russia - which under a republican government could quite possibly become much stronger decisively defeated.
b) A bit unclear on what your saying about a French invasion of Belgium. If it did mean war with Britain, which could well declare war as you say then that would be suicidal for France so I can't see them doing so in that circumstance. If they do go in and Britain doesn't declare war on them then it would be messy but not sure how easily Germany, with the bulk of its forces tied up in the east could drive the French out again. It would seriously undermine France's position diplomatically with neutral opinion which could be costly, especially if their facing growing dependence on foreign imports from Britain, US etc.
c) Assuming that Britain declares the Channel as a secure zone with no fighting allowed, which I think was the plan if Britain stayed neutral then German surface forces ability to raid French shipping would be limited. They might be able to get their BC force, singularly or in combination in a position to raid into the Atlantic but if they suffer any damage they could face problems. Also it would raise the problem of them making sure its French flagged ships being attacked or they have to stop them and search to identify whether the ship a) has any contraband and b) that contraband is heading for France. It would be very easy for both France and Germany to get supplies from anywhere in the world simply by having them carried in British ships to Britain and then either across the Channel or North Sea.
If they try using subs then again they would have to comply with international law, i.e. stopping and searching merchant ships - which could be very dangerous for them - as using USW would definitely be a red flag for Britain which is likely to have a lot of shipping in any area under attack. They can attack French naval ships but without the Belgium coast under their control and with passage through the Channel possibly a big issue to get at targets elsewhere they would have to circumnavigate the British Isles which would reduce their range a lot.
Two other points come to mind. d) The economic war. In this scenario Germany isn't tightly blockaded so it can trade with the rest of the world and probably use neutral, most likely UK or US shipping traveling to Britain to bypass French control of the eastern Atlantic. The down side of this is that would consume German gold reserves so there might be limits on how long and how much this could go on for. Similarly France has more resources without the loss of its territory in the NE but it will also be without British military and economic support so it could start running out of ability to fund foreign imports within 2-3 years.
e) The colonial war. France has a much larger empire and can take the offensive in places such as W Africa but possibly SE Africa and E Africa [i.e. Namibia and most of what's now Tanzania could be issues and they might not have the resources to spare for operations in those regions. Also von Spee's Pacific fleet could be a problem for them, at least until lack of resources forces it to head for home. A trip it might make in those circumstances. One answer here would be if Japan joined the French against Germany. True Britain is neutral but there would be a temptation for Japan as it could mop up German possessions in the Pacific and China. This would have economic and strategic advantages and also Wilhelm II didn't make himself popular in Japan by his racist comments about East Asians and Germany's role in leading the coalition with Russia and France to deny Japan of a lot of territorial gains after its defeat of China in 1894-95. If Japan does do this their likely to gain German territory south of the equator as well as with Britain - and hence Australia and New Zealand neutral their not in a position to take over Papua New Guinea and the Solomon Isles. [Although Japan having possession of those territories will raise concerns in the two dominions and also probably London but with what results it would be difficult to say].
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michelvan
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Post by michelvan on Apr 28, 2023 18:03:09 GMT
A bit unclear on what your saying about a French invasion of Belgium. The French follow there War plan XVII The french forth Army enter Belgium Territory, with out notification to Belgium Government ! They have retreating fast as german forth, fifth Army move faster as expected |
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Apr 28, 2023 18:13:58 GMT
A bit unclear on what your saying about a French invasion of Belgium. The French follow there War plan XVII The french forth Army enter Belgium Territory, with out notification to Belgium Government ! They have retreating fast as german forth, fifth Army move faster as expected Would that not mean the British will be force to declare war against France. We would see a British-German-Austria-Hungary block versus a France-Russia-Serbian block. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Apr 28, 2023 22:38:03 GMT
A bit unclear on what your saying about a French invasion of Belgium. The French follow there War plan XVII The french forth Army enter Belgium Territory, with out notification to Belgium Government ! They have retreating fast as german forth, fifth Army move faster as expected
That's a big change from OTL as the French army was explicitly forbidden by its government to enter Belgium until the latter was invaded and even draw back from the border a short distance to avoid any accidents or possibility that Germany would manufacture an excuse for entry.
Are those two German armies entering Belgium in response or launching attacks into French territory? The latter seems unlikely as that would put them in the open in the face of powerful French offensives in the region rather than sitting on the defensive. The former would be more logical but that would suggest their 'spare', i.e. not included in the defence of Alsace-Lorraine against the French attack or supporting operations in the east. Unless their a reserve to cover against such an action?
It would be likely to at least make Britain a lot less friendly to France and possibly even move them into intervening themselves - possibly seeking to offer protection to Belgium to avoid occupation by either side. I think such a French action would be bloody stupid as unless that happens - which is far from certain their opening up most of Belgium to German occupation and placing the Belgium army and their considerable economic resources against France. It would be doubly stupid to do that with only 1 army so that it might struggle to occupy much of the country and could as appears to be the case, be driven out by the Germans.
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michelvan
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Post by michelvan on Apr 29, 2023 9:40:21 GMT
Are those two German armies entering Belgium in response or launching attacks into French territory? The latter seems unlikely as that would put them in the open in the face of powerful French offensives in the region rather than sitting on the defensive. I think under this senario the German French border becomes a fortified trench war Zone on both side. Difficult to break through for Germans once they finish Russia, since the french had 3 year time to fortified their side of Border. Here to invade Belgium or Switzerland and attack the French fortified border from behind makes some sense... It would be likely to at least make Britain a lot less friendly to France and possibly even move them into intervening themselves In this France and Britain had turbulent past, with several wars, the last under Napoleon I, follow by Diplomatic incident and dispute about colonial borders of both empires, Special under Napoleon III. It was luck that France and Britain approaches each other at end of 19th century, forming Alliance against German Empire. But in WW1 Britain Government wanted be neutral considering this a Conflict between France and Germany until Germany invade Belgium... |
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Post by Max Sinister on Apr 29, 2023 9:57:25 GMT
"Rainbow press" might be an exaggeration, but Maximilian Harden would probably write about the scandal, if he knew about it. An original idea.
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