lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Apr 18, 2023 17:42:19 GMT
Italy has around 15 days until the Grand Fleet gets to Suez. Will it take some time to get the fleet in posistion.
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Post by simon darkshade on Apr 18, 2023 17:53:43 GMT
Well, yes. It has to come through the Canal and then advance towards the Gulf of Taranto (~2.5 days). Once there, as outlined up thread, they have more aircraft than the entire Italian Air Force.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Apr 18, 2023 17:58:35 GMT
Well, yes. It has to come through the Canal and then advance towards the Gulf of Taranto (~2.5 days). Once there, as outlined up thread, they have more aircraft than the entire Italian Air Force. And it will be the end for the Italian Navy and Airforce as we know it.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Apr 18, 2023 19:52:32 GMT
Well, yes. It has to come through the Canal and then advance towards the Gulf of Taranto (~2.5 days). Once there, as outlined up thread, they have more aircraft than the entire Italian Air Force. And it will be the end for the Italian Navy and Airforce as we know it.
Much of it and probably a good bit else of their industrial and military base. If not before its likely that Mussolini quickly falls. Whether or not DE Britain would make a deal with a new Italian government and on what terms would be the issue. DE 1943 UK may have deep reasons to be hostile to Mussolini's Italy but I think a quick deal which takes Italy out of the war would be in everybody's interests. It would also be another factor in encouraging France to fight on as it removes threats to their southern front and supply lines in the Med. [Albeit that those are likely to be minimal while the fleet is operating off the Italian coast.]
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Post by simon darkshade on Apr 19, 2023 3:30:03 GMT
Destroying their industrial and military base is not something that would happen overnight; let us not confuse the ease of destruction of airbases and sinking of ships in port with utterly removing the building blocks of a modern nation. I don't see the drivers for Mussolini falling quickly, as this was a completely different paradigm to 1943; shock and confusion will prevent precipitous action.
Once Italy loses its fleet and airpower, they won't really matter. The BEF/British Liberation Army has different supply lines than the Med and airpower can turn the southern front static fairly quickly.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Apr 19, 2023 15:57:11 GMT
Destroying their industrial and military base is not something that would happen overnight; let us not confuse the ease of destruction of airbases and sinking of ships in port with utterly removing the building blocks of a modern nation. I don't see the drivers for Mussolini falling quickly, as this was a completely different paradigm to 1943; shock and confusion will prevent precipitous action. Once Italy loses its fleet and airpower, they won't really matter. The BEF/British Liberation Army has different supply lines than the Med and airpower can turn the southern front static fairly quickly.
Would have to disagree here. Mussolini had made a decision to join what looks like an already won war and - albeit thanks to something he couldn't predict - a utter disaster. The sort of firepower the British will be supplying against Italy and the vulnerability of the nation, especially with coastal shipping - at least on the east coast - pretty much stopped dead along with possibly attack on the rather fragile Italian infrastructure is going to cause a crisis. In my opinion shock and confusion is likely to make a 'precipitous' action very likely.
Its your TL but I could easily see elements in Italy, including the king seeking an out from the war ASAP. Germany has had some stunning successes in France but that is now being questioned as their own forces and homeland take a pounding and they lack the prestige of OTL after victories in France, the Balkans and then huge territorial gains in the east.
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Post by simon darkshade on Apr 20, 2023 4:08:38 GMT
I don't see it as impossible; it is really a question of what is 'quickly' here.
a.) The short term of ~ 2 weeks until the GF arrives will see a progressive series of blows against Germany, but nothing utterly decisive in terms of impact on Italy. b.) Strikes on Italy. This will begin from early July and be the first real kicks against Mussolini and his regime. c.) At some point after that, the British counter-offensive in France will start. This is when the 'The End is Nigh' signs will start appearing in Rome
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Post by simon darkshade on Apr 20, 2023 14:31:41 GMT
German submarine U-47 June 14 1940
"Report, Leutnant!"
"Herr Kapitan..." How could he put this... "We are grounded. Atop a hill, by the look of it. No ocean in sight."
"What?!" Korvettenkapitan Gunther Prien rushed to the periscope, pushing aside the clearly delusional Leutnant.
Apparently not so delusional.
They were stranded atop a small green hillock amid fields of wheat. A short way off, several farmers looked up at the U-Boat, quite astonished.
...............
German submarine U-38
"Why have we stopped?"
"We appear to have run out of water in front of us, Herr Kapitan. From what I can see, we are in some sort of duck pond. And the ducks don't seem to be too happy."
....................
"And two further German submarines, identified as U-30 and U-51, have similarly ended up in the middle of Lyonesse, the latter in the middle of a Home Guard exercise."
"Casualties?"
"Five of the German sailors were killed by machine gun and anti-tank rifle fire before their captain gave them up."
"Anything else?"
"Home Fleet are reporting two definite U-Boat contacts in the Hebrides detected by land, sea and air forces. A full search is currently underway."
Commodore Jonathan Shepherd nodded with satisfaction. At least there was some good news amid the rush of madness today.
"Well, Lieutenant More, whatever has happened, that is at least four of the blighters we don't have to worry about. Hopefully six."
...................................
Bordeaux 2230 June 15 1940
Prime Minister Paul Reynaud was a troubled man with much to be troubled about. Paris had fallen to the Boche just yesterday morning, but now...now this news from Britain could change so many things. If it were true. If it were true. Could it be true?
"I tell you, it is a trick, a damned English trick!" raged Weygand. "A ruse to seize our Empire. We must make peace! It is the only way."
"It must be admitted that seemed utterly beyond belief. Yet the telephone calls we have had from General de Gaulle and his delegation just before confirm it, or large part of it. The English have thousands of tanks and aircraft and hundreds of thousands of men that he has seen." And other...things...but one step at a time. Reynauld responded carefully.
"Previous to yesterday, had General Brooke ever seemed mad to you?"
"No, Prime Minister."
"We have also all seen the photographs of the new island."
"That is beside the point. We must act to save France from destruction. This talk is just fantastic - the English have lost their minds." Marshal Petain spoke with a quiet dignity and resignation, having already surrendered to the only solution he could see.
There was an almost imperceptible knock on the door of the ad hoc Cabinet room.
"Enter!"
"Prime Minister, it is General de Gaulle - he has returned! General Brooke and Monsieur Eden are with him and..."
The aide never got the chance to finish before the door was pushed open by de Gaulle. He was followed through by the British officials and his staff and another. He was an old figure in an old uniform, yet his stride was strong and his eyes afire.
"Mon centre cède, ma droite recule, situation excellente, j'attaque. J'attaque, gentlemen. They were dark hours twenty six years ago, but it is always darkest before the dawn."
"But Maréchal...you're dead!"
"Do I look dead, Maréchal Petain? Is this what you have become after Verdun?"
"We are defeated."
"No longer. Where I am from, the Boche had overran and conquered the whole of France, but we still fight on. Here, that may no longer happen - will no longer happen! However it has come, our deliverance is here." said Marshal Ferdinand Foch fiercly.
"Monsieur le Prime Minister, I am come from England. It is as they say. They have the armies and planes to turn the tide, even now." de Gaulle spoke slowly, as if relishing each word.
"Prime Minister Churchill has instructed me to offer an expeditionary force of at least 100 divisions and 6,000 aircraft and the full resources of the British Empire to carry on the war until we achieve final victory over Germany and Italy. Should this be sufficient, we can begin landing the first divisions in Britanny and Normandy tomorrow and begin operations to sweep the Luftwaffe from the skies of France. As a further sign of our intents and capabilities, RAF Bomber Command will be attacking Berlin tonight with 2500 heavy bombers." Eden paused, not for dramatic effect, but as the sound of a very loud aircraft overhead made conversation difficult. "That is one of our eight engined bombers on its way to Rome."
"Within two weeks, we can establish an impenetrable bastion in Britanny and the north west. Once we have built up sufficient materiel, we can begin a full scale counterattack against the Germans." General Brooke, himself still getting used to the incredible shift of fortunes, said softly.
"What about their Panzer divisions? They have cut through our lines like knives through butter!" Weygand sounded hollow, like a broken man, yet somehow, somehow, there seemed to be flicker of flame within him, rekindled.
"We'll be dealing with the two within immediate range tomorrow morning."
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Apr 20, 2023 14:32:58 GMT
German submarine U-47June 14 1940"Report, Leutnant!" "Herr Kapitan..." How could he put this... "We are grounded. Atop a hill, by the look of it. No ocean in sight." "What?!" Korvettenkapitan Gunther Prien rushed to the periscope, pushing aside the clearly delusional Leutnant. Apparently not so delusional. They were stranded atop a small green hillock amid fields of wheat. A short way off, several farmers looked up at the U-Boat, quite astonished. " My best guess they have become unwanted guest of larger DE Britain.
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Post by simon darkshade on Apr 20, 2023 15:07:08 GMT
That is exactly what is said, just following that part, and what has been outlined in earlier planning posts.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Apr 20, 2023 15:10:42 GMT
That is exactly what is said, just following that part, and what has been outlined in earlier planning posts. Now, to bad the crew of these U-boats did not arrive at a small town, with certain local Home Guard, which i would love to see in DE Britain.
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Post by simon darkshade on Apr 20, 2023 15:19:19 GMT
Completely different area. Walmington on Sea is in Sussex, whereas the whole reason they've been grounded is because a large island 75% the size of Ireland has popped up.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Apr 20, 2023 15:25:34 GMT
Completely different area. Walmington on Sea is in Sussex, whereas the whole reason they've been grounded is because a large island 75% the size of Ireland has popped up. A okay.
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Post by simon darkshade on Apr 20, 2023 15:35:58 GMT
All fine.
So, the real kicker that shifts Reynaud's position is the dramatic catalyst of Foch, but the hints are in place earlier. There is a whole island that has emerged where it shouldn't be, a lot of planes that shouldn't be around and the British acting as if both are natural. Confusion ensues until the exploratory mission (flown directly over and back in a rather fast British transport plane) confirms that yes, the British do have what (downtime) Brooke told Weygand about in the first post and aren't suffering from a sudden national outbreak of ergotism.
Will this change the direction of British policy, yet again? Of course. The sheer confusion of an ISOT often gets swept under the carpet in stories and steely purpose + extreme calm permeates all decision making; this isn't the most human reaction to a shock like this.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Apr 20, 2023 15:40:57 GMT
All fine. So, the real kicker that shifts Reynaud's position is the dramatic catalyst of Foch, but the hints are in place earlier. There is a whole island that has emerged where it shouldn't be, a lot of planes that shouldn't be around and the British acting as if both are natural. Confusion ensues until the exploratory mission (flown directly over and back in a rather fast British transport plane) confirms that yes, the British do have what (downtime) Brooke told Weygand about in the first post and aren't suffering from a sudden national outbreak of ergotism. Will DE Britan make it clear to certain French Marshal of France to stay in Spain.
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