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Post by Otto Kretschmer on Mar 23, 2023 10:06:55 GMT
This is a spin off from the ISOT thread.
The Second Punic War rages on and Sweden appears just amidst of it.
What's the best strategy for Sweden?
It's advantages are: an excellent army and navy and knowledge of the world. It's disadvantage is small population.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Mar 23, 2023 16:26:13 GMT
This is a spin off from the ISOT thread. The Second Punic War rages on and Sweden appears just amidst of it. What's the best strategy for Sweden? It's advantages are: an excellent army and navy and knowledge of the world. It's disadvantage is small population.
I suspect the population is still substantial compared to those across much of the world at the time - other than a unified massive empire. Think however the problems might be initially realising when they are and what's happened and then, assuming they get involved at all, how to project power to the Med.
Think they would be best suited to making sure neither side wins, but especially not Rome. Coupled with allowing the minimal amount of knowledge to reach the down-timers. Could have a problem here of fortune hunters seeking to make their fortune - or possibly even set themselves up as warlords/princes. Thinking not just of the Romans and Carthaginians but also the assorted Greek dominated states further east in the Med and possibly at least neighbouring Scandinavian tribes and peoples.
One point is what exact areas are affected in this? Is it the borders of Sweden in 1617 - which may or may not include all of present day Sweden - IIRC a couple of provinces were still under Danish rule at this point and basically other than possibly a single port they didn't have direct access to the straits between the Baltic and the North Sea. Similarly wiki for the year mentions two dates affecting Sweden this year.
February 27 – The Treaty of Stolbovo ends the Ingrian War between Sweden and Russia. Sweden gains Ingria and Kexholm.[1]
October 12 – The coronation ceremony of King Gustav Adolf of Sweden takes place in Stockholm, almost six years after he succeeded to the throne.
The former is important territoriality as does the ISOT include those Swedish gains and if not what happens to Swedish forces outside legal Swedish territory at this point. [For instance if the ISOT was on the 1st Jan Sweden may well have forces in those lands and possibly other regions or even control them by occupation but would they and forces and the like be included?]
A couple of other points that could have an impact. a) As I mentioned in the earlier discussion disease could have an impact especially with things such as bubonic plague being devastating for the DTers. Other diseases, for instance Syphilis which is thought to have originated in the Americas and is likely to be present in some cases in Sweden which DTers are going to be very vulnerable to.
b) 1617 was pretty much in the middle of the Little Ice Age so Sweden could find itself somewhat warmer than its used to, long with of course neighbouring areas it would be quickly in contact with.
Steve
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Post by Otto Kretschmer on Mar 24, 2023 13:13:59 GMT
ISOT is from October 12.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Mar 24, 2023 14:02:37 GMT
Ah that gives a date. I hadn't realised how small actually Ingria and Kexholm actually were. Their basically the region around Leningrad and the northern part of Estonia. Most of the Baltic states are still in Polish hands, while Denmark has some of the islands. Sweden is also lacking access to the straits other than at Gottenburg, which is in their hands and not sure if they had so far gained exemption from straits dues - the charges that the Danish monarchy made on any ships passing through the straits between the Baltic and the wider seas, although of course that's no longer relevant as Denmark is no longer there. Sweden of course also holds Finland, which hasn't suffered the devastation it did a century later in the Great Northern War.
I think initial Swedish interests, once they realise things have changed, would be to restore order and bring neighbouring lands under their control. This would definitely include the two mainland provinces that had been in Danish hands and probably at least the main Danish islands so that Sweden had control over the straits. This also, once forests and the like were cleared would give them more agricultural land. During this time I would expect ships and possibly overland diplomatic missions would be spreading out to find more details. Sooner or later their probably going to find something that gives them a clearer idea of when they are - possibly running into Carthaginian merchants in Celtic Britain. Until that happens I suspect they will have no accurate idea of when they are, although they would have some hints their somewhere in the past.
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Post by Otto Kretschmer on Mar 24, 2023 15:07:59 GMT
What about the New World?
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Mar 24, 2023 20:19:02 GMT
What about the New World?
Well they know it exists and where it is plus once they have secured some control over Norway and Denmark they have a stepping stone in Iceland. However have so many opportunities in the local region and then in the Europe/Med area. Also they know about the route around Africa so a Swedish version of the DEIC could be a very tempting scheme. While N America has long term potential that was still somewhat limited in 1617 compared to the wealth of the east. They probably wouldn't be that aware of what if anything was present in Mesoamerica at this time and doubt there would be anything match the wealth of OTL Aztecs and Incas.
It could be that the new world could end up being settled by small groups, possibly with a fair number of them seeking to get away from the central government.
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575
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Post by 575 on Mar 25, 2023 15:30:35 GMT
Ah that gives a date. I hadn't realised how small actually Ingria and Kexholm actually were. Their basically the region around Leningrad and the northern part of Estonia. Most of the Baltic states are still in Polish hands, while Denmark has some of the islands. Sweden is also lacking access to the straits other than at Gottenburg, which is in their hands and not sure if they had so far gained exemption from straits dues - the charges that the Danish monarchy made on any ships passing through the straits between the Baltic and the wider seas, although of course that's no longer relevant as Denmark is no longer there. Sweden of course also holds Finland, which hasn't suffered the devastation it did a century later in the Great Northern War.
I think initial Swedish interests, once they realise things have changed, would be to restore order and bring neighbouring lands under their control. This would definitely include the two mainland provinces that had been in Danish hands and probably at least the main Danish islands so that Sweden had control over the straits. This also, once forests and the like were cleared would give them more agricultural land. During this time I would expect ships and possibly overland diplomatic missions would be spreading out to find more details. Sooner or later their probably going to find something that gives them a clearer idea of when they are - possibly running into Carthaginian merchants in Celtic Britain. Until that happens I suspect they will have no accurate idea of when they are, although they would have some hints their somewhere in the past.
Regarding Danish lands these would also be settled in 218BC - not as densely as 1617 though 1617 wasn't that densely settled after all. So like normal for Danish lands in times of crisis, war and such. Still not much need for clearing land as it had already been so - first time during Neolithic, second time during Bronzeage third time Middleages - Renaisance
The period of forest clearing is apparent in the first column titled SKOV - Neolithic at just past 3000BC, Bronze Age just prior 1000BC (1300BC - beginning of Bronze age in Denmark, medieval-renaisance post 1000/1500. The small blob 500-1000 is the regrowth of forest post Fimbulwinter and then felling during Viking Age.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Mar 26, 2023 11:53:54 GMT
Ah that gives a date. I hadn't realised how small actually Ingria and Kexholm actually were. Their basically the region around Leningrad and the northern part of Estonia. Most of the Baltic states are still in Polish hands, while Denmark has some of the islands. Sweden is also lacking access to the straits other than at Gottenburg, which is in their hands and not sure if they had so far gained exemption from straits dues - the charges that the Danish monarchy made on any ships passing through the straits between the Baltic and the wider seas, although of course that's no longer relevant as Denmark is no longer there. Sweden of course also holds Finland, which hasn't suffered the devastation it did a century later in the Great Northern War.
I think initial Swedish interests, once they realise things have changed, would be to restore order and bring neighbouring lands under their control. This would definitely include the two mainland provinces that had been in Danish hands and probably at least the main Danish islands so that Sweden had control over the straits. This also, once forests and the like were cleared would give them more agricultural land. During this time I would expect ships and possibly overland diplomatic missions would be spreading out to find more details. Sooner or later their probably going to find something that gives them a clearer idea of when they are - possibly running into Carthaginian merchants in Celtic Britain. Until that happens I suspect they will have no accurate idea of when they are, although they would have some hints their somewhere in the past.
Regarding Danish lands these would also be settled in 218BC - not as densely as 1617 though 1617 wasn't that densely settled after all. So like normal for Danish lands in times of crisis, war and such. Still not much need for clearing land as it had already been so - first time during Neolithic, second time during Bronzeage third time Middleages - Renaisance
The period of forest clearing is apparent in the first column titled SKOV - Neolithic at just past 3000BC, Bronze Age just prior 1000BC (1300BC - beginning of Bronze age in Denmark, medieval-renaisance post 1000/1500. The small blob 500-1000 is the regrowth of forest post Fimbulwinter and then felling during Viking Age.
OK thanks. I sit corrected.  Expected there would be some clearance of forests in Denmark, especially given how flat it is and hence potentially good arable land but didn't realise it would be that advanced in ~200BC. |
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575
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Post by 575 on Mar 26, 2023 13:08:58 GMT
Regarding Danish lands these would also be settled in 218BC - not as densely as 1617 though 1617 wasn't that densely settled after all. So like normal for Danish lands in times of crisis, war and such. Still not much need for clearing land as it had already been so - first time during Neolithic, second time during Bronzeage third time Middleages - Renaisance
The period of forest clearing is apparent in the first column titled SKOV - Neolithic at just past 3000BC, Bronze Age just prior 1000BC (1300BC - beginning of Bronze age in Denmark, medieval-renaisance post 1000/1500. The small blob 500-1000 is the regrowth of forest post Fimbulwinter and then felling during Viking Age.
OK thanks. I sit corrected. Expected there would be some clearance of forests in Denmark, especially given how flat it is and hence potentially good arable land but didn't realise it would be that advanced in ~200BC.
The really surprising thing is population; Denmark during Viking age is assessed at some 900,000 which also was the pop during 1800. Danish scientists estimate Thy in the Jutland northwest was probaly one very populated area with around the population found during 1800!
"Introducing Bronze Age Warfare" state a figure for Denmark of 300,000 but is prior to the Danish estimate of Thy AND also stress that its figure is conservative - too low! Introducing Bronze Age Warfare estimate Denmark having some 20,000 farms of which 10% would be able to field 1 Sword fighter - the rest each a Spear man.
Any way it gives a rather large potential of the Army of whatever polity ruled Denmarks and whatever it consisted of. Todays scientific view held by Prof. Christiansen of University of Lund is that there was a Bronzeage Principality in Denmark - its workshop in Sjælland have been found.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Mar 26, 2023 13:43:18 GMT
OK thanks. I sit corrected. Expected there would be some clearance of forests in Denmark, especially given how flat it is and hence potentially good arable land but didn't realise it would be that advanced in ~200BC.
The really surprising thing is population; Denmark during Viking age is assessed at some 900,000 which also was the pop during 1800. Danish scientists estimate Thy in the Jutland northwest was probaly one very populated area with around the population found during 1800!
"Introducing Bronze Age Warfare" state a figure for Denmark of 300,000 but is prior to the Danish estimate of Thy AND also stress that its figure is conservative - too low! Introducing Bronze Age Warfare estimate Denmark having some 20,000 farms of which 10% would be able to field 1 Sword fighter - the rest each a Spear man.
Any way it gives a rather large potential of the Army of whatever polity ruled Denmarks and whatever it consisted of. Todays scientific view held by Prof. Christiansen of University of Lund is that there was a Bronzeage Principality in Denmark - its workshop in Sjælland have been found.
Interesting. Do you know the situation in the period in question i.e. ~200BC or is that still bronze age in Scandinavia? A more organised state could make for a more formidable opposition for Gustavus but they should still be no real match for his veterans with pike and musket, let alone cannon. It might also make the conflict shorter in that he can take over an existing state rather than be waging war with assorted small tribal groups.
While he was a supporter of the Protestant reformation I don't know how much that was actual religious devotion and how much practicality to ensure his own rule and nation would survive so I don;t know how he would react to pagan populations. However I can't see him not seeking to secure most of Denmark, because of its geographical importance and its economic potential. Nor with the technology and organizational differences can I see him really failing in doing so.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Mar 26, 2023 14:05:17 GMT
OK thanks. I sit corrected. Expected there would be some clearance of forests in Denmark, especially given how flat it is and hence potentially good arable land but didn't realise it would be that advanced in ~200BC.
The really surprising thing is population; Denmark during Viking age is assessed at some 900,000 which also was the pop during 1800. Danish scientists estimate Thy in the Jutland northwest was probaly one very populated area with around the population found during 1800!
"Introducing Bronze Age Warfare" state a figure for Denmark of 300,000 but is prior to the Danish estimate of Thy AND also stress that its figure is conservative - too low! Introducing Bronze Age Warfare estimate Denmark having some 20,000 farms of which 10% would be able to field 1 Sword fighter - the rest each a Spear man.
Any way it gives a rather large potential of the Army of whatever polity ruled Denmarks and whatever it consisted of. Todays scientific view held by Prof. Christiansen of University of Lund is that there was a Bronzeage Principality in Denmark - its workshop in Sjælland have been found.
Well I thought i just posted but seems to have disappeared??
Interesting figures but do you have any idea what the population estimates are like ~200BC? Or was Scandinavia still in the bronze age at that date?
If there is a reasonably centralised state there at the time then I suspect its more likely that war will occur fairly quickly. It will be tougher to take over in terms of open conflict but given the edge the 1617 Swedes will have in weapons and the like and I can't see them not winning and having a recognised state to take over rather than say numerous small tribes that have to be defeated sequentially or possibly hunted down in wilder areas. However given its geographic location and potential economic use I think it would be the primary target for Gustavus once he has some idea what has happened.
I don't know how religious Gustavus was as opposed to entering the 30YW for reasons of national and personal interests so I'm not sure how he would react to ruling pagan populations.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Mar 26, 2023 14:06:19 GMT
test message - Not sure why the last two posts seem to have been hidden from me when I originally posted them? Sorry about the duplication??
Clicking on the thread it shows 575's previous post as the most recent one and doesn't show those three posts of mine. If I renew the thread it them shows my posts. Weird?
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575
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Post by 575 on Mar 26, 2023 17:47:48 GMT
Stevep;
Well situation at 200 BC would be Iron Age in Danish lands which is deemed to begin around 500 BC though I have seen 750 BC for Jutland. 500 BC would be Denmark, southern Norway and Sweden though still it may be some transitory period in the east.
There will probably still be some kind of principality though how far that cover is difficult. If it had been 750 year later it would have been easier..
There is a Denmark around 500 AD though how far back in time this reached is difficult to assess. If we go by the Dannevirke Rampart the early part date to 450 AD but the area south of it was rather barren so may have been a "natural" border.
There was at least regional Principalities as the only "bronzeage" boat found in Denmark is from 350 BC. It had been sacrificed in a bog in South Jutland following battle.
An Angel Kingdom was situated in the south of Schleswig from Dannevirke to the modern border where is another old rampart, Olgerdiget/Olgerdike defending against the North.
North of the Angel Kingdom was a tribal community of Variner (mentioned by Tacitus) up to the Jarnvith Forest stretching from the Schleswig Northern Border at Kolding southeast altmost to Ribe - known as an impenetreble wilderness.
To the north of this wilderness we find the Jutes! And a temple dating from 150 BC of Royal status which is active untill 7-800 AD.
Tacitus did write of the Saxons who lived at the Palisade of the Cimbrian Peninsula! Now Tacitus wrote around 100-170 so what is he referring to? Some old texts have Axons or Aviones instead of Saxons (Angles?) and the Saxons live also on three islands outside the mouth of the Elbe.
Going east Fyn is always a black hole! But on Sjælland there was around 500 AD the Skjoldunger Kingdom at Lejre - these guys are Iron Age and those poems were composed to.
Further east is Scania which itself in the east borders Blekinga; some border stones from Blekinge/Scania is dated to 550-600 which must be the early date of the Blekinga Kingdom. South of that is Bornholm which during Bronze Age had some differences from Sjælland and is reckoned as Independent till around 1200.
Blekinge and Bornholm is also mentioned in King Alfreds History as independent lands.
Its all a mess - right!
The thing is that the unified Kingdom of Denmark is founded sometime prior to 500 and then goes down the drain during the Fimbul Winter. A new World dawn with a number of Kingdoms among these Jutland - Fyn - Sjælland - Scania (Herulians!!!) - Blekinga - Bornholm.
Prior to this is during Bronze Age some Principality within Denmarks which at times is divided by the Great Baelt.
So by 218 BC there may well be a kind of polity within Scania-Blekinga perhaps linked to the rest of (East)Denmark.
I'd guess Gustavus would be able to overcome the Scania-Blekinga Principality due to more advanced weaponry. The Vikings in Vinland when having battle with the Indegenious Peoples was somewhat frightened by a device which made a loud chrash when thrown but in the end prevailed. Handguns winning battle isn't a given - Artillery may well. It didn't seem the Mexicans just ran away from Cortez guns but were more scared of Horses. Don't think the Scania-Blekinga troops will.
Gustavus due to his better organization won't have to use two years and get local Allies in his struggle.
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Expected there would be some clearance of forests in Denmark, especially given how flat it is and hence potentially good arable land but didn't realise it would be that advanced in ~200BC.