stevep
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Post by stevep on May 26, 2023 13:54:18 GMT
On the other hand, if it was the latter, as I've said on the Sietch, it would take a federalist/annexationist faction becoming stronger and Manuel Quezon not being a complete dunce when he said the infamous words: You might also need a Philippine-American War PoD where the US straight up goes for the hearts and minds option, but this in itself is difficult, given the racial rhetoric going on. Heck, they even made a song about us and being civilized with a Krag. Are you talking about from Dec 41 against the Japanese attack or as a colony or other possession, including possible with an option for full statehood? I'm assuming the former but not sure.
If the former and with no changes in events prior to the attack then probably not greatly so. If instead of trying to resist the landings MacArthur sends the planned smaller force into Bataan, along with the planned supplies, rather than use up/lose many of those supplies in the attempt at forward defence and then retreating into the peninsula with more forces then probably a bit longer. Part of the issue from what I've read was that while this position prevented the Japanese using Manila harbour that wasn't a high priority for the Japanese so they were able to send forces south then return them to the islands for the final stages of the campaign. However the forces might be able to last somewhat longer and inflict more casualties against the attacking Japanese forces but it wouldn't really make a massive difference to the development of the war in the region. - Only exception, although not a big one was when Wainwright surrendered he was forced to surrender other forces still resisting in other parts of the islands so this would be likely to occur somewhat latter as well.
Basically its a virtually totally isolated position and the US had, rightly with the forces available at the time, decided to give it up as lost as it was so deep inside Japanese controlled territories and waters. MacArthur seems to have believed that if a Japanese attack had come another 6-8 months later then the forces available then would have been strong enough to have defeated Japanese landings. However even if that was the case its still largely isolated from any external support so how much it could have threatened Japanese supply lines might have been time-limited depending on how long supplies and offensive capacity in the islands could continue to operate. Sorry for the delayed reply. Was taking a few days to relax after graduating on the 20th, so was just casually browsing instead of reading others' responses closely. To answer Steve's question, I did indeed mean your second option on the Philippines remains a US possession for the longest time possible. Would be a heck of a state, as well, given both how far off it is and its population (read: Electoral Vote count) swaying US elections big time. In which case, I wonder if it'd be more like the Puerto Rico of the Pacific, in the sense of being a recognized US territory that still lacks the rights and responsibilities attached to statehood? Otherwise, Steve's first option looks interesting all by itself. Not knowledgeable enough about the Pacific theater of World War II to comment, but what I can say is that it's novel and has runoff consequences worth discussing in more detail. If anyone would like to start a thread on it, I'd be happy to spectate and chime in when I can.
No problem with the delay. You had a good excuse. 
It would be difficult without some fairly early POD for the US especially I suspect. Given it was only 1960 when the US was willing to trust a Catholic for the top post - and then with many reservations - having such a large largely Catholic population, along with a sizeable Muslim minority would be a big pill for more socially and religiously conservative Americans to swallow. [Although I don't know how big demographically the Philippines was at various points in the past]. Also for the islands to be a formal state - or possibly given its size and diversity more than one - from ~1970 onward that would mean extending a lot of social rights to them which is likely to be an expensive move.
Not saying its impossible, as few things are. However without some big changes fairly early on in either/both continental US and the Philippines its going to be a fraught relationship if Washington is going to maintain control. Being British I think of an attempt to hold onto an hostile southern Ireland through the 20thC, except that the Philippines are a [large] ocean away and much larger! As such I can't see any attempt to hold it by force nor the islands being happy being stuck in a territory type situation.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on May 26, 2023 13:58:22 GMT
WI: William McKinley Survives What happens to Theodore Roosevelt?
Good question. Given he was somewhat of a radical used to 'balance' the ticket to some degree and later failed to gain the support of the party hierarchy in 1912 he might never reach the top post. In which case how long does the Gilded Age last and how does it end?
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Post by Max Sinister on May 27, 2023 21:34:34 GMT
Last year I mentioned this in the thread about what we read, but still:
In Anne Frank's diary, I found an AH hook: At one point, she thinks that British princess Margaret Rose might marry Baudouin of the Belgians. Would that work? Prince Philip might've converted to Anglicanism - but would the Royals be OK with Margaret becoming a Catholic? Or would the Belgians tolerate a non-Catholic queen?
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stevep
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Post by stevep on May 27, 2023 23:04:20 GMT
Last year I mentioned this in the thread about what we read, but still: In Anne Frank's diary, I found an AH hook: At one point, she thinks that British princess Margaret Rose might marry Baudouin of the Belgians. Would that work? Prince Philip might've converted to Anglicanism - but would the Royals be OK with Margaret becoming a Catholic? Or would the Belgians tolerate a non-Catholic queen?
Well religion is generally less important nowadays, at least in much of western Europe although even at that time social values were markedly more restrictive. For instance a decade later when she was strongly attached to Group Captain Townsend, which was scuppered because he had divorced. A lot would depend on the constitutional situation in Belgium at the time, for instance whether they had rules on the religious status of the monarchy. However I suspect that if such a marriage had gone ahead she would have had to do a formal conversion to Catholicism.
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Post by Max Sinister on May 27, 2023 23:53:22 GMT
Last year I mentioned this in the thread about what we read, but still: In Anne Frank's diary, I found an AH hook: At one point, she thinks that British princess Margaret Rose might marry Baudouin of the Belgians. Would that work? Prince Philip might've converted to Anglicanism - but would the Royals be OK with Margaret becoming a Catholic? Or would the Belgians tolerate a non-Catholic queen?
Well religion is generally less important nowadays, at least in much of western Europe although even at that time social values were markedly more restrictive. For instance a decade later when she was strongly attached to Group Captain Townsend, which was scuppered because he had divorced. A lot would depend on the constitutional situation in Belgium at the time, for instance whether they had rules on the religious status of the monarchy. However I suspect that if such a marriage had gone ahead she would have had to do a formal conversion to Catholicism.
Probably. Well, she isn't exactly the only heiress of the throne, and there have been royals converting to Catholicism in the past. So all that happens is that she can't become queen anymore.
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Zyobot
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Post by Zyobot on May 29, 2023 22:48:18 GMT
'AHC: USSR Gets The Atom Bomb First'.
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Post by TheRomanSlayer on Jun 1, 2023 4:14:23 GMT
"PC: British Colonial Policy in a Mosley-led BUF Dictatorship"
I'm not exactly sure what was the actual racial policy that the notorious British Union of Fascists had, but do you think that a BUF-ruled Britain would have been a nightmare for it's colonies and dominions? More precisely, would Mosley have been more brutal in his dealings with the British Raj?
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Post by Max Sinister on Jun 1, 2023 4:34:59 GMT
"PC: British Colonial Policy in a Mosley-led BUF Dictatorship" I'm not exactly sure what was the actual racial policy that the notorious British Union of Fascists had, but do you think that a BUF-ruled Britain would have been a nightmare for it's colonies and dominions? More precisely, would Mosley have been more brutal in his dealings with the British Raj? I guess so, but I also wonder for how long this would have worked.
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Post by TheRomanSlayer on Jun 1, 2023 5:06:03 GMT
"PC: British Colonial Policy in a Mosley-led BUF Dictatorship" I'm not exactly sure what was the actual racial policy that the notorious British Union of Fascists had, but do you think that a BUF-ruled Britain would have been a nightmare for it's colonies and dominions? More precisely, would Mosley have been more brutal in his dealings with the British Raj? I guess so, but I also wonder for how long this would have worked.
It would take a really awful strings of bad luck for Britain to end up with Mosley. I do know that the BUF were hardcore anti-Semites, but did they have a similar mindset to the inhabitants of the American South when it came to the dealings with Britain's African colonies and the African population? |
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miletus12
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Post by miletus12 on Jun 1, 2023 8:47:43 GMT
I guess so, but I also wonder for how long this would have worked.
It would take a really awful strings of bad luck for Britain to end up with Mosley. I do know that the BUF were hardcore anti-Semites, but did they have a similar mindset to the inhabitants of the American South when it came to the dealings with Britain's African colonies and the African population? I can only presume the Mau Mau rebellion and Rhodesia had similar seeds. IOW, the British were "imperialists". |
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Post by TheRomanSlayer on Jun 1, 2023 15:25:10 GMT
It would take a really awful strings of bad luck for Britain to end up with Mosley. I do know that the BUF were hardcore anti-Semites, but did they have a similar mindset to the inhabitants of the American South when it came to the dealings with Britain's African colonies and the African population? I can only presume the Mau Mau rebellion and Rhodesia had similar seeds. IOW, the British were "imperialists". Yikes. A worsened race relations in a British Malaya that has to deal with the BUF would make Enoch Powell’s Rivers of Blood come true all too often. Heck, this would definitely make the Konfrontasi a lot easier for Indonesia. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jun 1, 2023 15:44:31 GMT
"PC: British Colonial Policy in a Mosley-led BUF Dictatorship" I'm not exactly sure what was the actual racial policy that the notorious British Union of Fascists had, but do you think that a BUF-ruled Britain would have been a nightmare for it's colonies and dominions? More precisely, would Mosley have been more brutal in his dealings with the British Raj?
I would say it depends on how much Mosley actually believed the racist side of the BS he was pushing. If he does and assuming that for some reason WWII is averted - which would be a big assumption - its going to be very nasty in places like India, at least until the Mosley regime collapses. Might lead to faster de-colonization elsewhere in the empire as a result but whether that would be good or bad for assorted areas would depend on events.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jun 1, 2023 15:58:52 GMT
It would take a really awful strings of bad luck for Britain to end up with Mosley. I do know that the BUF were hardcore anti-Semites, but did they have a similar mindset to the inhabitants of the American South when it came to the dealings with Britain's African colonies and the African population? I can only presume the Mau Mau rebellion and Rhodesia had similar seeds. IOW, the British were "imperialists".
Difficult to say with such a short sample of the text but the argument sounds dubious. Europeans began to develop 'scientific' theories of race in response to perversions of Darwin's ideas but cultural, tribal, religious and racial hostilities have very long histories. The Chinese in eastern Asia have often been mistrusted when they settle in other parts of the region because of their perceived connection with an often large and expansionist empire as well as their frequent success in economic matters. Its also unclear what the reference to Malay collapse is? Guessing that this relates to the defeat of under-strength British/Imperial forces in 1941-42 in the region but that had very little to do with the racial policies of the British leadership and a lot more to do with the quality and quantity of the forces involved on both sides. It should be noted that historically both some of the Malayan and the Chinese minority in the peninsula offered to raise forces to fight alongside the British in defence of a feared Japanese invasion.
Prior to relatively recent times and then still largely in western Europe any nation/state/people that has the ability to exert control over others tends to become 'imperialist'. The Mau Mau and Rhodesia had a similar connection in which a powerful white minority group monopolized much of the power, land and other resources and this in turn lead to brutal terrorist campaigns against those rulers. Both of those controlling groups had political connections with Britain, although of course the Rhodesian whites were in rebellion against the British government.
The other option of course for a conquering power is to kill or expel the vast bulk of the population in the colonized area and hence become the majority population, which makes it far more difficult for the oppressed minority to gain any sort of independence. This has unfortunately been carried out in some cases and attempted in others.  |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jun 1, 2023 16:01:27 GMT
Malay Collapse.I can only presume the Mau Mau rebellion and Rhodesia had similar seeds. IOW, the British were "imperialists". Yikes. A worsened race relations in a British Malaya that has to deal with the BUF would make Enoch Powell’s Rivers of Blood come true all too often. Heck, this would definitely make the Konfrontasi a lot easier for Indonesia.
It probably depends on how Mosely wishes to rule in the region. If his party decides to abandon the widespread policy of indirect rule then yes its going to alienate a lot of those in power in Malaya. Depending on how its done and if its openly racist to the subject populations then that is going to unite at least some of the disparate elements and they might even think control by Indonesia is a better option.
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miletus12
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Post by miletus12 on Jun 1, 2023 16:16:32 GMT
Difficult to say with such a short sample of the text but the argument sounds dubious. Europeans began to develop 'scientific' theories of race in response to perversions of Darwin's ideas but cultural, tribal, religious and racial hostilities have very long histories. The Chinese in eastern Asia have often been mistrusted when they settle in other parts of the region because of their perceived connection with an often large and expansionist empire as well as their frequent success in economic matters. Its also unclear what the reference to Malay collapse is? Guessing that this relates to the defeat of under-strength British/Imperial forces in 1941-42 in the region but that had very little to do with the racial policies of the British leadership and a lot more to do with the quality and quantity of the forces involved on both sides. It should be noted that historically both some of the Malayan and the Chinese minority in the peninsula offered to raise forces to fight alongside the British in defence of a feared Japanese invasion. . I would like to see case studies in Kenya and in Zimbabwe as well. I am not prepared to make any blanket statements. Each situation has local factors present and local emergent politics involved, but as with other historical examples (Americans in the Wild West, Philippinwe Islands, and Vietnam and Iraq and Afghanistan.), "Imperialism" seems a consistant attitude and component. |
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